Climate change and trace gases

Nitrogen dioxide as proxy indicator of air pollution from fossil fuel burning in New Delhi during lockdown phases of COVID-19 pandemic period: impact on weather as revealed by Sentinel-5 precursor (5p) spectrometer sensor

There has been a long-lasting impact of the lockdown imposed due to COVID-19 on several fronts. One such front is climate which has seen several implications. The consequences of climate change owing to this lockdown need to be explored taking into consideration various climatic indicators. Further impact on a local and global level would help the policymakers in drafting effective rules for handling challenges of climate change. For in-depth understanding, a temporal study is being conducted in a phased manner in the New Delhi region taking NO2 concentration and utilizing statistical methods to elaborate the quality of air during the lockdown and compared with a pre-lockdown period. In situ mean values of the NO2 concentration were taken for four different dates, viz. 4th February, 4th March, 4th April, and 25th April 2020. These concentrations were then compared with the Sentinel (5p) data across 36 locations in New Delhi which are found to be promising. The results indicated that the air quality has been improved maximum in Eastern Delhi and the NO2 concentrations were reduced by one-fourth than the pre-lockdown period, and thus, reduced activities due to lockdown have had a significant impact. The result also indicates the preciseness of Sentinel (5p) for NO2 concentrations.

Progress of ship exhaust gas control technology

Ship emissions problems caused by the rapid development of maritime trade can't be ignored. The NO_X, SO_X, CO₂, PM and other toxic substances contained in the exhaust gas are extremely harmful to the environment and human health. In order to cope with the adverse effects of ship emissions and the increasingly stringent emission regulations formulated by the IMO and governments, the shipping industry needs to adopt new clean energy and high-efficiency exhaust control technologies to reduce ship emissions. This paper provides a comprehensive review, including: (1) The impact of pollutants such as NO_X, SO_X, CO₂ and PM emitted by ships on the environment and human health; (2) New regulations about ship exhaust emissions; (3) Application of clean energy such as LNG, biodiesel, methanol, hydrogen and ammonia on ships; (4) After-treatment technology of ship exhaust gas such as SCR and EGR. And focusing on the principles, uses, characteristics, implementation obstacles and prospects of different energy and technologies, with a view to provide some help for the research on ship exhaust emissions control.

Impacts of ocean acidification on growth and toxin content of the marine diatoms Pseudo-nitzschia australis and P. fraudulenta

This paper present the effects of ocean acidification on growth and domoic acid (DA) content of several strains of the toxic Pseudo-nitzschia australis and the non-toxic P. fraudulenta. Three strains of each species (plus two subclones of P. australis) were acclimated and grown in semi-continuous cultures at three pH levels: 8.07, 7.77, and 7.40, in order to simulate changes of seawater pH from present to plausible future levels. Our results showed that lowering pH from current level (8.07) to predicted pH level in 2100 (7.77) did not affect the mean growth rates of some of the P. australis strains (FR-PAU-17 and L3-100), but affected other strains either negatively (L3-30) or positively (L3.4). However, the growth rates significantly decreased with pH lowered to 7.40 (by 13% for L3-100, 43% for L3-30 and 16% for IFR-PAU-17 compared to the rates at pH 8.07). In contrast, growth rates of the non-toxic P. fraudulenta strains were not affected by pH changing from 8.07 to 7.40. The P. australis strains produced DA at all pH levels tested, and the highest particulate DA concentration normalized to cell abundance (pDA) was found at pH 8.07. Total DA content (pDA and dissolved DA) was significantly higher at current pH (8.07) compared to pH (7.77), exept for one strain (L 3.4) where no difference was found. At lower pH levels 7.77-7.40, total DA content was similar, except for strains IFR-PAU-17 and L3-100 which had the lowest content at the pH 7.77. The diversity in the responses in growth and DA content highlights the inter- and intra-specific variation in Pseudo-nitzschia species in response to ocean acidification. When exploring environmental responses of Pseudo-nitzschia using cultured cells, not only strain-specific variation but also culturing history should be taken into consideration, as the light levels under which the subclones were cultured, afterwards affected both maximum growth rates and DA content.

The Consequences of Our Changing Environment on Life Threatening and Debilitating Fungal Diseases in Humans

Human activities have significantly impacted the environment and are changing our climate in ways that will have major consequences for ourselves, and endanger animal, plant and microbial life on Earth. Rising global temperatures and pollution have been highlighted as potential drivers for increases in infectious diseases. Although infrequently highlighted, fungi are amongst the leading causes of infectious disease mortality, resulting in more than 1.5 million deaths every year. In this review we evaluate the evidence linking anthropomorphic impacts with changing epidemiology of fungal disease. We highlight how the geographic footprint of endemic mycosis has expanded, how populations susceptible to fungal infection and fungal allergy may increase and how climate change may select for pathogenic traits and indirectly contribute to the emergence of drug resistance.

Widening the Range of Trackable Environmental and Health Pollutants for Li-Garnet-Based Sensors

Classic chemical sensors integrated in phones, vehicles, and industrial plants monitor the levels of humidity or carbonaceous/oxygen species to track environmental changes. Current projections for the next two decades indicate the strong need to increase the ability of sensors to sense a wider range of chemicals for future electronics not only to continue monitoring environmental changes but also to ensure the health and safety of humans. To achieve this goal, more chemical sensing principles and hardware must be developed. Here, a proof-of-principle for the specific electrochemistry, material selection, and design of a Li-garnet Li7 La3 Zr2 O12 (LLZO)-based electrochemical sensor is provided, targeting the highly corrosive environmental pollutant sulfur dioxide (SO2 ). This work extends the prime use of LLZO as a battery component as well as the range of trackable pollutants for potential future sensor-noses. Novel composite sensing-electrode designs using LLZO-based porous scaffolds are employed to define a high number of reaction sites, and successfully track SO2 at the dangerous levels of 0-10 ppm with close-to-theoretical SO2 sensitivity. The insights on the sensing electrochemistry, phase stability and sensing electrode/Li+ electrolyte structures provide first guidelines for future Li-garnet sensors to monitor a wider range of environmental pollutants and toxins.

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing

Warm periods in Earth's history offer opportunities to understand the dynamics of the Earth system under conditions that are similar to those expected in the near future. The Middle Pliocene warm period (MPWP), from 3.3 to 3.0 My B.P, is the most recent time when atmospheric CO₂ levels were as high as today. However, climate model simulations of the Pliocene underestimate high-latitude warming that has been reconstructed from fossil pollen samples and other geological archives. One possible reason for this is that enhanced non-CO₂ trace gas radiative forcing during the Pliocene, including from methane (CH₄), has not been included in modeling. We use a suite of terrestrial biogeochemistry models forced with MPWP climate model simulations from four different climate models to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the MPWP CH₄ cycle, including uncertainty. We simulate an atmospheric CH₄ mixing ratio of 1,000 to 1,200 ppbv, which in combination with estimates of radiative forcing from N₂O and O₃, contributes a non-CO₂ radiative forcing of 0.9 [Formula: see text] (range 0.6 to 1.1), which is 43% (range 36 to 56%) of the CO₂ radiative forcing used in MPWP climate simulations. This additional forcing would cause a global surface temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.0 °C, with amplified changes at high latitudes, improving agreement with geological evidence of Middle Pliocene climate. We conclude that natural trace gas feedbacks are critical for interpreting climate warmth during the Pliocene and potentially many other warm phases of the Cenezoic. These results also imply that using Pliocene CO₂ and temperature reconstructions alone may lead to overestimates of the fast or Charney climate sensitivity.

Measurement of environmental efficiency in the countries of the European Union with the enhanced data envelopment analysis method (DEA) during the period 2005-2012

In recent years, there has been growing interest in measuring the environmental efficiency of the different territories, countries, and/or nations. This has led to the development of different methods applied to the evaluation of environmental efficiency such as the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method. This method, supported by different studies, allows measuring relative environmental efficiency (eco-efficiency) and is consolidated as a very reliable method to measure the effectiveness of environmental policies in a specific geographical area. The objective of our study is the calculation of the environmental efficiency of the 28 member countries of the European Union (UE) through the DEA method. We will collect the data regarding the last years in which there are reliable comparative data in all. We will study in reference to them, the results of the environmental policies applied in the different countries, in order to make comparisons between countries and classify them according to their environmental efficiency. Using this, two variants of calculation within the DEA method to compare in a contrasted way the results of environmental efficiency for the 28 countries of the EU analyzed and propose possible solutions for improvement. Contributing in this work as main novelty the application of a new variant of the DEA method, which we will call improved analysis method (MAN) and that aims to agglutinate and assess more objectively, the results of the two DEA methods applied. The results show that there are 14 of the 28 countries that have a high relative environmental efficiency. However, we also find countries with very low environmental efficiency that should improve in the coming years. Coinciding precisely in this last group with countries recently admitted to the EU and where environmental policies have not yet been applied effectively and with positive results.

Variations in Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Response to Short-Term Changes in Weather Variables at Three Elevation Ranges, Wakiso District, Uganda

Weather conditions are among the major factors leading to the increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from the agricultural soils. In this study, variations in the soil GHG fluxes with precipitation and soil temperatures at different elevation ranges in banana–coffee farms, in the Wakiso District, Uganda, were evaluated. The soil GHG fluxes were collected weekly, using the chamber method, and analyzed by using gas chromatography. Parallel soil temperature samples were collected by using a REOTEMP soil thermometer. Daily precipitation was measured with an automated weather station instrument installed on-site. The results showed that CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes were significantly different between the sites at different elevation ranges. Daily precipitation and soil temperatures significantly (p < 0.05) affected the soil GHG fluxes. Along an elevation gradient, daily precipitation and soil temperatures positively associated with the soil GHG fluxes. The combined factors of daily precipitation and soil temperatures also influence the soil GHG fluxes, but their effect was less than that of the single effects. Overall, daily precipitation and soil temperatures are key weather factors driving the soil GHG fluxes in time and space. This particular study suggests that agriculture at lower elevation levels would help reduce the magnitudes of the soil GHG fluxes. However, this study did not measure the soil GHG fluxes from the non-cultivated ecosystems. Therefore, future studies should focus on assessing the variations in the soil GHG fluxes from non-cultivated ecosystems relative to agriculture systems, at varying elevation ranges.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Black carbon emission reduction strategies in healthcare industry for effective global climate change management

Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to life on earth to date with black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke being the strongest cause after carbon dioxide (CO₂). Surprisingly, scientific evidence about black carbon emissions reduction in healthcare settings is sparse. This paper presents new research findings on the reduction of black carbon emissions from an observational study conducted at the UN Peacekeeping Operations (MINUSTAH) in Haiti in 2014. Researchers observed 20 incineration cycles, 30 minutes for each cycle of plastic and cardboard sharps healthcare waste (HCW) containers ranged from 3 to 14.6 kg. The primary aim was to determine if black carbon emissions from healthcare waste incineration can be lowered by mainstreaming the use of cardboard sharps healthcare waste containers instead of plastic sharps healthcare waste containers. Similarly, the study looks into whether burning temperature was associated with the smoke levels for each case or not. Independent samples t-tests demonstrated significantly lower black carbon emissions during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers (6.81 ± 4.79% smoke) than in plastic containers (17.77 ± 8.38% smoke); a statistically significant increase of 10.96% smoke (95% Confidence Interval ( CI) [4.4 to 17.5% smoke], p = 0.003). Correspondingly, lower bottom burner temperatures occurred during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers than in plastic (95% Cl [16 to 126°C], p = 0.014). Finally, we expect the application of the new quantitative evidence to form the basis for policy formulation, mainstream the use of cardboard sharps containers and opt for non-incineration disposal technologies as urgent steps for going green in healthcare waste management.

Cenozoic mean greenhouse gases and temperature changes with reference to the Anthropocene

Cenozoic greenhouse gases (GHG) variations and warming periods underscore the extreme rates of current climate change, with major implications for the adaptability and survivability of terrestrial and marine habitats. Current rise rate of greenhouse gases, reaching 3.3 ppm CO₂ per year during March 2015-2016, is the fastest recorded since the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Event (PETM) when carbon release to the atmosphere was about an order of magnitude less than at present. The ice core evidence of concentration of (GHG) and temperatures in the atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system over the last 740 kyr suggests that the rate of rise in GHG over the last ~260 years, CO₂ rates rising from 0.94 ppm yr^-1 in 1959 (315.97 ppm) to 1.62 ppm yr^-1 in 2000 (369.52 ppm) to 3.05 ppm yr^-1 in 2015 (400.83 ppm), constitutes a unique spike in the history of the atmosphere. The reliance of pre-740 kyr paleoclimate estimates on multiple proxies, including benthic and plankton fossils, fossil plants, residual organic matter, major and trace elements in fossils, sediments and soils, place limits on the resolution of pre-upper Pleistocene paleoclimate estimates, rendering it likely recorded mean Cenozoic paleoclimate trends may conceal abrupt short-term climate fluctuations. However, as exemplified by the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and earlier GHG and temperature spikes associated with major volcanic and asteroid impact events, the long-term residence time of CO₂ in the atmosphere extends the signatures of abrupt warming events to within detection limits of multiple paleoproxies. The mean post-1750 temperature rise rate (approximately ~0.0034 °C per yr, or ~0.008 °C per yr where temperature is not masked by sulfur aerosols) exceeds those of the PETM (approximately ~0.0008-0.0015 °C per yr) by an order of magnitude and mean glacial termination warming rates (last glacial termination [LGT] ~ 0.00039; Eemian ~0.0004 °C per yr) by near to an order of magnitude. Consistent with previous interglacial peaks an increasing likelihood of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation is threatening a severe stadial event.

The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies

Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.

Design Criteria for Future Fuels and Related Power Systems Addressing the Impacts of Non-CO2 Pollutants on Human Health and Climate Change

Concerns over the economics, supply chain, and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the wide use of fossil fuels have led to increasing interest in developing alternative and renewable fuels for stationary power generation and transportation systems. Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the economic and environmental impacts of alternative and renewable fuels, there is a great need for assessment of potential and emerging fuels to guide research priorities and infrastructure investment. Likewise, there is a great need to identify potential unintended adverse impacts of new fuels and related power systems before they are widely adopted. Historically, the environmental impacts of emerging fuels and power systems have largely focused on carbon dioxide emissions, often called the carbon footprint, which is used to assess impacts on climate change. Such assessments largely ignore the large impacts of emissions of other air pollutants. Given the potential changes in emissions of air pollutants associated with the large-scale use of new and emerging fuels and power systems, there is a great need to better guide efforts to develop new fuels and power systems that can avoid unexpected adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This review covers the nature of emissions, including the key components and impacts from the use of fuels, and the design criteria for future fuels and associated power systems to assure that the non-CO2 adverse impacts of stationary power generation and transportation are minimized.

Considerations for the development of shale gas in the United Kingdom

The United States shale gas boom has precipitated global interest in the development of unconventional oil and gas resources. Recently, government ministers in the United Kingdom started granting licenses that will enable companies to begin initial exploration for shale gas. Meanwhile, concern is increasing among the scientific community about the potential impacts of shale gas and other types of unconventional natural gas development (UGD) on human health and the environment. Although significant data gaps remain, there has been a surge in the number of articles appearing in the scientific literature, nearly three-quarters of which has been published since the beginning of 2013. Important lessons can be drawn from the UGD experience in the United States. Here we explore these considerations and argue that shale gas development policies in the UK and elsewhere should be informed by empirical evidence generated on environmental, public health, and social risks. Additionally, policy decisions should take into account the measured effectiveness of harm reduction strategies as opposed to hypothetical scenarios and purported best practices that lack empirical support.

The tolerance of growth and clonal propagation of Phragmites australis (common reeds) subjected to lead contamination under elevated CO2conditions

Elevated CO₂might improve growth and clonal propagation resistance to Pb contamination through increasing photosynthetic, phalanx growth and population expansion.

Climate change as a three-part ethical problem: a response to Jamieson and Gardiner

Dale Jamieson has claimed that conventional human-directed ethical concepts are an inadequate means for accurately understanding our duty to respond to climate change. Furthermore, he suggests that a responsibility to respect nature can instead provide the appropriate framework with which to understand such a duty. Stephen Gardiner has responded by claiming that climate change is a clear case of ethical responsibility, but the failure of institutions to respond to it creates a (not unprecedented) political problem. In assessing the debate between Gardiner and Jamieson, I develop an analysis which shows a three-part structure to the problem of climate change, in which the problem Gardiner identifies is only one of three sub-problems of climate change. This analysis highlights difficulties with Jamieson's argument that the duty of respect for nature is necessary for a full understanding of climate ethics, and suggests how a human-directed approach based on the three-part analysis can avoid Jamieson's charge of inadequacy.

The role of ethics in shale gas policies

The United States has experienced a boom in natural gas production due to recent technological innovations that have enabled natural gas to be produced from unconventional sources, such as shale. There has been much discussion about the costs and benefits of developing shale gas among scientists, policy makers, and the general public. The debate has typically revolved around potential gains in economics, employment, energy independence, and national security as well as potential harms to the environment, the climate, and public health. In the face of scientific uncertainty, national and international governments must make decisions on how to proceed. So far, the results have been varied, with some governments banning the process, others enacting moratoria until it is better understood, and others explicitly sanctioning shale gas development. These policies reflect legislature's preferences to avoid false negative errors or false positive ones. Here we argue that policy makers have a prima facie duty to minimize false negatives based on three considerations: (1) protection from serious harm generally takes precedence over the enhancement of welfare; (2) minimizing false negatives in this case is more respectful to people's autonomy; and (3) alternative solutions exist that may provide many of the same benefits while minimizing many of the harms.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W(-1) m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO(2), which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Averting comfortable lifestyle crises

How have climate change and diet shaped the evolution of human energy metabolism, and responses to vitamin C, fructose and uric acid? Through the last three millennia observant physicians have noted the association of inappropriate diets with increased incidence of obesity, heart disease, diabetes and cancer, and over the past 300 years doctors in the UK observed that overeating increased the incidence of these diseases. Anthropological studies of the Inuit culture in the mid-nineteenth century revealed that humans can survive and thrive in the virtual absence of dietary carbohydrate. In the 1960s, Cahill revealed the flexibility of human metabolism in response to partial and total starvation and demonstrated that type 2 diabetics were better adapted than healthy subjects to conserving protein during fasting. The potential role for brown adipose tissue thermogenesis in temperature maintenance and dietary calorie control was suggested by Rothwell and Stock from their experiments with 'cafeteria fed rats' in the 1980s. Recent advances in gene array studies and PET scanning support a role for this process in humans. The industrialisation of food processing in the twentieth century has led to increases in palatability and digestibility with a parallel loss of quality leading to overconsumption and the current obesity epidemic. The switch from animal to vegetable fats at the beginning of the twentieth century, followed by the rapid increase in sugar and fructose consumption from 1979 is mirrored by a steep increase in obesity in the 1980s, in the UK and USA. Containment of the obesity epidemic is compounded by the addictive properties of sugar which involve the same dopamine receptors in the pleasure centres of the brain as for cocaine, nicotine and alcohol. Of the many other toxic effects of excessive sugar consumption, immunocompromisation, kidney damage, atherosclerosis, oxidative stress and cancer are highlighted. The WHO and guidelines on sugar consumption include: alternative non-sugar sweeteners; toxic side-effects of aspartame. Stevia and xylitol as healthy sugar replacements; the role of food processing in dietary health; and beneficial effects of resistant starch in natural and processed foods. The rise of maize and soya-based vegetable oils have led to omega-6 fat overload and imbalance in the dietary ratio of omega-3 to omega-6 fats. This has led to toxicity studies with industrial trans fats; investigations on health risks associated with stress and comfort eating; and abdominal obesity. Other factors to consider are: diet, cholesterol and oxidative stress, as well as the new approaches to the chronology of eating and the health benefits of intermittent fasting.

The health effects of climate change: what does a nurse need to know?

The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change has been established with increasing precision and there are widespread concerns about its potential to undermine the public health gains of the past century. There is also a growing consensus across private and public sector organisations at national and international level that carbon reduction should be a policy aim. Various international nursing organisations have made strong position statements on the issue, arguing that nurses should be actively engaged as part of their roles in both health promotion and clinical practice. We point to education for sustainability initiatives in other health professions and share resources for curriculum development in nursing. The nurses of tomorrow will make a unique and significant contribution to protecting population health in an unstable climate, if today's nursing educators can help prepare them for this role.

Periodic DFT study of acidic trace atmospheric gas molecule adsorption on Ca- and Fe-doped MgO(001) surface basic sites

The electronic properties of undoped and Ca- or Fe-doped MgO(001) surfaces, as well as their propensity toward atmospheric acidic gas (CO2, SO2, and NO2) uptake was investigated with an emphasis on gas adsorption on the basic MgO oxygen surface sites, O(surf), using periodic density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Adsorption energy calculations show that MgO doping will provide stronger interactions of the adsorbate with the O(surf) sites than the undoped MgO for a given adsorbate molecule. Charge transfer from the iron atom in Fe-doped MgO(001) to NO2 was shown to increase the binding interaction between adsorbate by an order of magnitude, when compared to that of undoped and Ca-doped MgO(001) surfaces. Secondary binding interactions of adsorbate oxygen atoms were observed with surface magnesium sites at distances close to those of the Mg-O bond within the crystal. These interactions may serve as a preliminary step for adsorption and facilitate further adsorbate transformations into other binding configurations. Impacts on global atmospheric chemistry are discussed as these adsorption phenomena can affect atmospheric gas budgets via altered partitioning and retention on mineral aerosol surfaces.

The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover: A Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes

Analysis of in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40–50 years. The largest and most rapid decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover duration (SCD) are observed over maritime regions of the Arctic with the highest precipitation amounts. There is also evidence of marked differences in the response of snow cover between the North American and Eurasian sectors of the Arctic, with the North American sector exhibiting decreases in snow cover and snow depth over the entire period of available in situ observations from around 1950, while widespread decreases in snow cover are not apparent over Eurasia until after around 1980. However, snow depths are increasing in many regions of Eurasia. Warming and more frequent winter thaws are contributing to changes in snow pack structure with important implications for land use and provision of ecosystem services. Projected changes in snow cover from Global Climate Models for the 2050 period indicate increases in maximum SWE of up to 15% over much of the Arctic, with the largest increases (15–30%) over the Siberian sector. In contrast, SCD is projected to decrease by about 10–20% over much of the Arctic, with the smallest decreases over Siberia (<10%) and the largest decreases over Alaska and northern Scandinavia (30–40%) by 2050. These projected changes will have far-reaching consequences for the climate system, human activities, hydrology, and ecology.

The obesity epidemic: from the environment to epigenetics - not simply a response to dietary manipulation in a thermoneutral environment

The prevalence of obesity continues to increase particularly in developed countries. To establish the primary mechanisms involved, relevant animal models which track the developmental pathway to obesity are required. This need is emphasized by the substantial rise in the number of overweight and obese children, of which a majority will remain obese through adulthood. The past half century has been accompanied with unprecedented transitions in our lifestyle. Each of these changes substantially contributes to enhancing our capacity to store energy into adipose tissues. The complex etiology of adiposity is critical as a majority of models investigating obesity utilize a simplistic high-fat/low-carbohydrate diet, fed over a short time period to comparatively young inbred animals maintained in fixed environment. The natural history of obesity is much more complex involving many other mechanisms and this type of challenge may not be the optimal experimental intervention. Such processes include changes in adipose tissue composition with time and the transition from brown to white adipose tissue. Brown adipose tissue, due its unique ability to rapidly produce large amounts of heat could have a pivotal role in energy balance and is under epigenetic regulation mediated by the histone H3k9-specific demethylase Jhdma2a. Furthermore, day length has a potential role in determining endocrine and metabolic responses in brown fat. The potential to utilize novel models and interventions across a range of animal species in adipose tissue development may finally start to yield sustainable strategies by which excess fat mass can, at last, be avoided in humans.

The three faces of ecological fitness

This paper argues that fitness is most usefully understood as those properties of organisms that are explanatory of survival in the broadest sense, not merely descriptive of reproductive success. Borrowing from Rosenberg and Bouchard (2009), fitness in this sense is ecological in that it is defined by the interactions between organisms and environments. There are three sorts of ecological fitness: the well-documented ability to compete, the ability to cooperate (as in mutualistic symbiosis), and a third sense of fitness that has received insufficient attention in evolutionary theory, the ability to construct. Following Lotka, it can be understood thermodynamically as the ability to maintain or enlarge the energy-circulating capacity of an ecosystem. An organism that does this could end with its gene frequency unchanged but its probability of survival enhanced since it would sustain or increase the total carrying capacity of its ecosystem. Photosynthesizers and other autotrophs are obvious candidates for organisms that are fit in the constructive sense, but any organisms, including heterotrophs, can exhibit constructive fitness if they have some mechanism for channeling external flows of free energy into their ecosystems. I will briefly examine the prospects for the human species in the light of these considerations.

Carbon-constrained health care enterprise

RATIONALE

The health economy is a significant part of a national economy accounting typically for about 8% of GDP spent. As national economies respond to the dual challenges of severe economic turbulence on the global scale and climate change mitigation, the health economy is coming under increasing pressure to respond. Indications for sharp reductions in budgets and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, are widespread.

AIMS

In this paper an analysis is undertaken of the diverse forces acting on a typical health care enterprise. The forces, both economic and carbon related, are investigated in terms of their effects through the enterprise and across its boundaries on the supply, demand and waste sides. The overall aim is to show how the enterprise and whole supply chains may flip synchronously into a low-carbon evolutionary pathway.

OBJECTIVES

By illustrating how different elements of the health care enterprise may respond to these developments, diverse opportunities for cost reduction, carbon reduction and product (goods and services) development are identified. These opportunities involve a variety of waste reduction and energy and materials conservation measures as well as new ways of collaborating with other enterprises going through similar transformations. The overall objective is to show that the carbon-constrained health care enterprise and the low-carbon health economy in which it sits may broaden its role in the coming decades to include a degree of responsibility for the health of the environment. This broader role is likely to supplement and entangle with the traditional role of the health economy, currently focused narrowly on human health, and lead to extensive organisational transformation, and infrastructure and product developments.

International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?

International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416 Mt to between 876 and 1013 Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand.

Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise

On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.