Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015

Causal interaction in high frequency turbulence at the biosphere-atmosphere interface: Structure-function coupling

At the biosphere-atmosphere interface, nonlinear interdependencies among components of an ecohydrological complex system can be inferred using multivariate high frequency time series observations. Information flow among these interacting variables allows us to represent the causal dependencies in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). We use high frequency multivariate data at 10 Hz from an eddy covariance instrument located at 25 m above agricultural land in the Midwestern US to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of this complex system using a sequence of DAGs by examining the structural dependency of information flow and the associated functional response. We investigate whether functional differences correspond to structural differences or if there are no functional variations despite the structural differences. We base our analysis on the hypothesis that causal dependencies are instigated through information flow, and the resulting interactions sustain the dynamics and its functionality. To test our hypothesis, we build upon causal structure analysis in the companion paper to characterize the information flow in similarly clustered DAGs from 3-min non-overlapping contiguous windows in the observational data. We characterize functionality as the nature of interactions as discerned through redundant, unique, and synergistic components of information flow. Through this analysis, we find that in turbulence at the biosphere-atmosphere interface, the variables that control the dynamic character of the atmosphere as well as the thermodynamics are driven by non-local conditions, while the scalar transport associated with CO2 and H2O is mainly driven by short-term local conditions.

Regression-based gap-filling methods show air temperature reductions and wind pattern changes during the 2019 total eclipse in Chile

Singular disruptive events like solar eclipses affect the measured values of meteorological variables at the earth’s surface. To quantify such an impact, it is necessary to estimate what value the parameter would have taken had the event not occurred. We design and compare several methods to perform such an estimate based on longer observational timeseries from individual meteorological surface stations. Our methods are based on regularised regressions (including a Bayesian variant) and provide both a point an associated error estimate of the disruptive event’s impact. With their help, we study the effect of the total solar eclipse of July 2nd, 2019, in the Coquimbo Region of Chile, on near-surface air temperatures and winds. The observational data used have been collected by the meteorological surface station network of the Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA). Most stations inside the eclipse’s umbra registered a temperature drop of 1–2 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{\circ }$$\end{document}∘C, while the most extreme estimated temperature drop surpassed 6 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{\circ }$$\end{document}∘C. The presence of an ‘eclipse cyclone’ can neither be proven nor refuted. Application of the regression methods to other comparable problems like volcanic eruptions, forest fires, or simply gap filling of observational data, are conceivable.

Rapid indirect solar responses observed in the lower atmosphere

Establishing clear evidence of solar-induced lower atmosphere effects is hampered by the small 11-year solar cycle responses, typically swamped by meteorological variability. Strong 27-day cyclic changes are exploited here instead. During the 2007/8 minimum in solar activity, regular 27-day lighthouse-like sweeps of energetic particles crossed the heliosphere and Earth, followed by a burst of solar ultraviolet radiation. Averaging the atmospheric responses at UK sites reveals immediate cooling in the troposphere after the peak energetic particle flux, followed by warming in the stratosphere. Regionally, this is accompanied by zonal wind changes, and temperature changes beneath cloud at the same time. Of two possible rapid distinct routes of solar influence—photochemical (through ozone) and atmospheric electrical (through low level clouds)—the ozone route does not provide a phase-locked response but the electrical route is supported by observed phase-locked thickening of low level clouds. These findings have potential value to weather forecasting.

Unmanned aerial vehicles reveal the impact of a total solar eclipse on the atmospheric surface layer

We use unmanned aerial vehicles to interrogate the surface layer processes during a solar eclipse and gain a comprehensive look at the changes made to the atmospheric surface layer as a result of the rapid change of insolation. Measurements of the atmospheric surface layer structure made by the unmanned systems are connected to surface measurements to provide a holistic view of the impact of the eclipse on the near-surface behaviour, large-scale turbulent structures and small-scale turbulent dynamics. Different regimes of atmospheric surface layer behaviour were identified, with the most significant impact including the formation of a stable layer just after totality and evidence of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves appearing at the interface between this layer and the residual layer forming above it. The decrease in surface heating caused a commensurate decrease in buoyant turbulent production, which resulted in a rapid decay of the turbulence in the atmospheric surface layer both within the stable layer and in the mixed layer forming above it. Significant changes in the wind direction were imposed by the decrease in insolation, with evidence supporting the formation of a nocturnal jet, as well as backing of the wind vector within the stable layer.

Numerical simulations of the impact of the 20 March 2015 eclipse on UK weather

Short lead-time forecasts using the operational United Kingdom variable-resolution (UKV) configuration of the Met Office's numerical weather prediction model, with horizontal grid-length 1.5 km over the UK, with and without a representation of the 20 March 2015 eclipse, have been used to simulate the impact of the eclipse on UK weather. The major impact was surface-driven through changes to surface heat and moisture fluxes that changed the boundary-layer development. In cloud-free areas, the nocturnal stable boundary layer persisted or quickly re-established during the eclipse. Surface temperatures were reduced by 7-8°C, near-surface air temperature by 1-3°C, and near-surface winds were backed, typically by 20°. Impacts on wind speed were small and variable, and would have been very difficult to detect. Smaller impacts occurred beneath cloud. However, the impact was enhanced because most of the incoming radiation that reached the surface was driving surface sensible heat flux rather than moisture flux, and the near-surface air temperature impact (0.5-1°C) agrees reasonably well with observations. The modelled impact of the eclipse was substantially reduced in urban areas due to their large thermal inertia. Experience from other assessments of the model suggests that this lack of response may be exaggerated. Surface impacts propagated upwards and downstream with time, resulting in a complex pattern of response, though generally near-surface temperature differences persisted for many hours after the eclipse. The impact on atmospheric pressure fields was insufficient to account for any significant perturbations to the wind field when compared with the direct impacts of surface stress and boundary-layer mixing.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

The solar eclipse: a natural meteorological experiment

A solar eclipse provides a well-characterized reduction in solar radiation, of calculable amount and duration. This captivating natural astronomical phenomenon is ideally suited to science outreach activities, but the predictability of the change in solar radiation also provides unusual conditions for assessing the atmospheric response to a known stimulus. Modern automatic observing networks used for weather forecasting and atmospheric research have dense spatial coverage, so the quantitative meteorological responses to an eclipse can now be evaluated with excellent space and time resolution. Numerical models representing the atmosphere at high spatial resolution can also be used to predict eclipse-related changes and interpret the observations. Combining the models with measurements yields the elements of a controlled atmospheric experiment on a regional scale (10-1000 km), which is almost impossible to achieve by other means. This modern approach to 'eclipse meteorology' as identified here can ultimately improve weather prediction models and be used to plan for transient reductions in renewable electricity generation. During the 20 March 2015 eclipse, UK electrical energy demand increased by about 3 GWh (11 TJ) or about 4%, alongside reductions in the wind and photovoltaic electrical energy generation of 1.5 GWh (5.5 TJ).This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

On the variability of near-surface screen temperature anomalies in the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Near-surface air temperature (NSAT) anomalies during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse are investigated at 266 UK sites, using operational data. The high density of observing sites, together with the wide range of ambient meteorological conditions, provided an unprecedented opportunity for analysis of the spatial variability of NSAT anomalies under relatively uniform eclipse conditions. Anomalies ranged from -0.03°C to -4.23°C (median -1.02°C). The maximum (negative) anomaly lagged the maximum obscuration by 15 min on average. Cloud cover impacted strongly on NSAT anomalies, with larger anomalies in clear-sky situations (p<0.0001). Weaker, but statistically significant, correlations were found with wind speed (larger anomalies in weaker winds), proximity to coast (larger anomalies at inland sites), topography (larger anomalies in topographical low points) and land cover (larger anomalies over vegetated surfaces). In this mid-morning eclipse, the topographical influences on NSAT anomalies were apparently dominated by variations in residual nocturnal inversion strength, as suggested by significant correlations between post-sunrise temperature and NSAT anomaly at clear-sky sites (larger negative anomalies with lower post-sunrise temperatures). The largest NSAT anomaly occurred at a coastal site where flow transitioned from onshore to offshore during the eclipse, in a situation with large coastal temperature gradients associated with antecedent nocturnal cooling.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: an assessment of citizen scientist weather observations

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment (NEWEx) was a citizen science project designed to assess the effects of the 20 March 2015 partial solar eclipse on the weather over the United Kingdom (UK). NEWEx had two principal objectives: to provide a spatial network of meteorological observations across the UK to aid the investigation of eclipse-induced weather changes, and to develop a nationwide public engagement activity-based participation of citizen scientists. In total, NEWEx collected 15 606 observations of air temperature, cloudiness and wind speed and direction from 309 locations across the UK, over a 3 h window spanning the eclipse period. The headline results were processed in near real time, immediately published online, and featured in UK national press articles on the day of the eclipse. Here, we describe the technical development of NEWEx and how the observations provided by the citizen scientists were analysed. By comparing the results of the NEWEx analyses with results from other investigations of the same eclipse using different observational networks, including measurements from the University of Reading's Atmospheric Observatory, we demonstrate that NEWEx provided a fair representation of the change in the UK meteorological conditions throughout the eclipse. Despite the simplicity of the approach adopted, robust reductions in both temperature and wind speed during the eclipse were observed.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.