Optimizing spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies

Evaluation of contingency actions to control the spread of raccoon rabies in Ohio and Virginia

The raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of the rabies virus (RRV) is enzootic in the eastern United States and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is the primary strategy to prevent and control landscape spread. Breaches of ORV management zones occasionally occur, and emergency "contingency" actions may be implemented to enhance local control. Contingency actions are an integral part of landscape-scale wildlife rabies management but can be very costly and routinely involve enhanced rabies surveillance (ERS) around the index case. We investigated two contingency actions in Ohio (2017-2019 and 2018-2021) and one in Virginia (2017-2019) using a dynamic, multi-method occupancy approach to examine relationships between specific management actions and RRV occurrence, including whether ERS was sufficient around the index case. The RRV occupancy was assessed seasonally at 100-km2 grids and we examined relationships across three spatial scales (regional management zone, RRV free regions, and local contingency areas). The location of a grid relative to the ORV management zone was the strongest predictor of RRV occupancy at the regional scale. In RRV free regions, the neighbor effect and temporal variability were most important in influencing RRV occupancy. Parenteral (hand) vaccination of raccoons was important across all three contingency action areas, but more influential in the Ohio contingency action areas where more raccoons were hand vaccinated. In the Virginia contingency action area, ORV strategies were as important in reducing RRV occupancy as a hand vaccination strategy. The management action to trap, euthanize, and test (TET) raccoons was an important method to increase ERS, yet the impacts of TET on RRV occupancy are not clear. The probability of detecting additional cases of RRV was exceptionally high (>0.95) during the season the index case occurred. The probability of detecting RRV through ERS declined in the seasons following initial TET efforts but remained higher after the contingency action compared to the ERS detection probabilities prior to index case incidence. Local RRV cases were contained within one year and eliminated within 2-3 years of each contingency action.

Retrospective analysis of sero-prevalence and bait uptake estimations in foxes after oral rabies vaccination programmes at European level: Lessons learned and paths forward

Rabies caused by the Classical Rabies Virus (Lyssavirus rabies abbreviated RABV) in the European Union has been close to elimination mainly thanks to Oral Rabies Vaccination (ORV) campaigns targeting wildlife (primarily red foxes). ORV programmes co-financed by the European Commission include a monitoring-component to assess the effectiveness of the ORV campaigns at national level. This assessment is performed by a random collection of red foxes in the vaccinated areas with control of antibodies presence by serological analysis and control of bait uptake by detection of biomarkers (tetracycline incorporated into the baits) in the bones and teeth. ORV programmes aim to a vaccine coverage high enough to immunize (ideally) 70 % of the reservoir population to control the spread of the disease. European Union (EU) programmes that led to almost elimination of rabies on the territory have been traditionally found to have a bait uptake average of 70 % (EU countries; 2010-2020 period) while the seroconversion data showed an average level of 40 % (EU countries; 2010-2020 period). To better understand variations of these indicators, a study was been set up to evaluate the impact of several variables (linked to the vaccination programme itself and linked to environmental conditions) on the bait uptake and the seroconversion rate. Thus, pooling data from several countries provides more powerful statistics and the highest probability of detecting trends. Results of this study advocate the use of a single serological test across the EU since data variation due to the type of test used was higher than variations due to field factors, making the interpretation of monitoring results at EU level challenging. In addition, the results indicates a negative correlation between bait uptake and maximum temperatures reached during ORV campaigns questioning the potential impact of climatic change and associated increase of temperatures on the ORV programmes efficiency. Several hypotheses requesting additional investigation are drawn and discussed in this paper.

Seasonal changes in network connectivity and consequences for pathogen transmission in a solitary carnivore

Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida's dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns-even among largely solitary species-can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.

Rabies in the Republic of Kazakhstan: spatial and temporal characteristics of disease spread over one decade (2013-2022)

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease that remains endemic in Kazakhstan despite the implementation of annual vaccination campaigns. Using data collected over a 10-year time period, the objective of this study was to provide updated information on the epidemiological situation of the disease in the country, and quantitative data on the species-specific spatial distribution of rabies and on the epidemiological features associated with that clustering. Five significant (p < 0.05) clusters of disease were detected. Clusters in southern Kazakhstan were associated with companion animals, which are likely explained by the maintenance of a domestic cycle of the disease in the most densely populated region of the country. Livestock cases were most frequent in clusters in the eastern (where wildlife cases were also frequent) and western regions of Kazakhstan, with higher probability of occurrence in spring and summer, compared to the rest of the year. The results here are consistent with differential patterns for disease transmission in Kazakhstan and will contribute to the design and implementation of zoning approaches to support the progressive control of rabies in the country.

Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns

The "Zero by 30" strategic plan aims to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and domestic dog vaccination is a vital component of this strategic plan. In areas where domestic dog vaccination has been implemented, it is important to assess the impact of this intervention. Additionally, understanding temporal and seasonal trends in the incidence of animal rabies cases may assist in optimizing such interventions. Data on the incidence of probable rabies cases in domestic and wild animals were collected between January 2011 and December 2018 in thirteen districts of south-east Tanzania where jackals comprise over 40% of reported rabies cases. Vaccination coverage was estimated over this period, as five domestic dog vaccination campaigns took place in all thirteen districts between 2011 and 2016. Negative binomial generalized linear models were used to explore the impact of domestic dog vaccination on the annual incidence of animal rabies cases, whilst generalized additive models were used to investigate the presence of temporal and/or seasonal trends. Increases in domestic dog vaccination coverage were significantly associated with a decreased incidence of rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals. A 35% increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in the incidence of probable dog rabies cases of between 78.0 and 85.5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 61.2 to 92.2%) and a reduction in the incidence of probable jackal rabies cases of between 75.3 and 91.2% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 53.0 to 96.1%). A statistically significant common seasonality was identified in the monthly incidence of probable rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals with the highest incidence from February to August and lowest incidence from September to January. These results align with evidence supporting the use of domestic dog vaccination as part of control strategies aimed at reducing animal rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals in this region. The presence of a common seasonal trend requires further investigation but may have implications for the timing of future vaccination campaigns.

Animal rabies epidemiology in Nepal from 2005 to 2017

Background and Aim: Animal rabies is endemic in Nepal, and it occurs in two forms. Although governmental and non-governmental agencies are working toward the control of rabies by mass dog vaccination and stray dog population management, there is still massive number of rabies incidence reported to the reference veterinary laboratory, Nepal. Therefore, this study aimed to assess animal species, temporal, regional, and agro-ecological distribution patterns of animal rabies in Nepal from 2005 to 2017. Materials and Methods: The epidemiological data on animal rabies from the period of 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Central Veterinary Laboratory, Tripureshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal. The laboratory-confirmed rabies cases were analyzed according to animal species, temporal, regional (developmental zones), and agro-ecological distributions. In addition, descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the distribution patterns of rabies. Results: From 2005 to 2017, a total of 2771 suspected rabies cases in animals were reported to The Central Veterinary Hospital, Kathmandu. Of which, 1302 were found laboratory-confirmed cases. The rabies cases were most commonly reported and confirmed in dogs followed by other domestic animals. The high occurrences were recorded between 2005 and 2007. However, the incidence was increased during 2016 and 2017. The highest number of rabies cases was recorded in the eastern development zone, and the least number in the central zone at regional level. Likewise, it was highest in the Terai (plain) region and lowest in mountainous areas at agro-ecological zones. The findings also revealed that the occurrences of rabies significantly differed among seasons. Conclusion: Rabies is present in Nepal throughout the year and all seasons with seasonal variation. Among the animal species, dogs are the primary animals affected with rabies followed by cattle and other domestic animals. At the regional level, eastern development zone had the highest incidence and Central development zone recorded the least. Similarly, the Terai region had the highest incidence rates, and the least overall prevalence rate was observed in mountainous regions among agro-ecological zones. Therefore, the government should implement the strict enforcement of mass dog vaccination and dog population management through one health approach to control rabies incidence in the country.

A framework for surveillance of emerging pathogens at the human-animal interface: Pigs and coronaviruses as a case study

Pigs (Sus scrofa) may be important surveillance targets for risk assessment and risk-based control planning against emerging zoonoses. Pigs have high contact rates with humans and other animals, transmit similar pathogens as humans including CoVs, and serve as reservoirs and intermediate hosts for notable human pandemics. Wild and domestic pigs both interface with humans and each other but have unique ecologies that demand different surveillance strategies. Three fundamental questions shape any surveillance program: where, when, and how can surveillance be conducted to optimize the surveillance objective? Using theory of mechanisms of zoonotic spillover and data on risk factors, we propose a framework for determining where surveillance might begin initially to maximize a detection in each host species at their interface. We illustrate the utility of the framework using data from the United States. We then discuss variables to consider in refining when and how to conduct surveillance. Recent advances in accounting for opportunistic sampling designs and in translating serology samples into infection times provide promising directions for extracting spatio-temporal estimates of disease risk from typical surveillance data. Such robust estimates of population-level disease risk allow surveillance plans to be updated in space and time based on new information (adaptive surveillance) thus optimizing allocation of surveillance resources to maximize the quality of risk assessment insight.

Seasonal variation in bait uptake and seropositivity during a multi-year biannual oral rabies fox vaccination programme in Kosovo (2010-2015)

The European Union supported programmes for rabies control in Kosovo between 2010 and 2015, including spring and autumn biannual oral vaccination campaigns targeting foxes. Throughout the programmes foxes were obtained to provide samples for monitoring the campaigns. This paper explores the seasonal pattern of bait uptake and seropositivity in the fox population. Bait uptake varied by season and by the phase of the project supporting the programme (the main differences between phases being the number of baits distributed and flight line separation). Seropositivity varied by season and by titre of the vaccine used in the preceding campaign. The analyses also suggested a negative effect of higher daytime temperature on bait uptake, and possible association between geographic location of sampling and concordance between bait uptake and seropositivity, but the dataset was too unbalanced to support robust conclusions on these detailed aspects. Descriptive summaries of the data and the multilevel analyses showed that the proportion of sampled foxes that were positive for bait uptake and the proportion seropositive were both high through winter, following the autumn campaigns, and declined through spring and summer, with a low point in samples collected during the time when juvenile foxes are typically dispersing from their birth dens. The percentage of foxes positive for bait uptake was below 30 % (first project phase) and 40 % (second project phase) from mid-July to mid-October following a spring campaign, compared with around 70 % (first project phase) and 80 % (second project phase) in the periods between autumn and the following spring campaigns. As could be expected, the percent of samples that were seropositive followed a similar seasonal pattern, with some additional variation associated with the titre of vaccine used. This seasonal pattern is likely because the population sampled in the late summer months includes increasing numbers of young foxes that could not have been effectively exposed to the spring vaccination campaign, and would have lost any possible maternal immunity by late summer. The main finding of high levels of bait uptake and seroprevalence through winter, following the autumn campaigns, declining through summer despite the implementation of spring campaigns, supports advice that countries lacking financial resources to support biannual campaigns should focus resources on once per year vaccination in late autumn or early winter. This pattern also indicates that a fox population may rapidly become naïve after cessation of vaccination programmes, therefore strongly coordinated regional programmes and good surveillance will be needed.

Local rabies transmission and regional spatial coupling in European foxes

Infectious diseases are often transmitted through local interactions. Yet, both surveillance and control measures are implemented within administrative units. Capturing local transmission processes and spatial coupling between regions from aggregate level data is therefore a technical challenge that can shed light on both theoretical questions and practical decisions. Fox rabies has been eliminated from much of Europe through oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes. The European Union (EU) co-finances ORV to maintain rabies freedom in EU member and border states via a cordon sanitaire. Models to capture local transmission dynamics and spatial coupling have immediate application to the planning of these ORV campaigns and to other parts of the world considering oral vaccination. We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to data on three decades of fox rabies cases and ORV campaigns from Eastern Germany. Specifically, we find that (i) combining regional spatial coupling and heterogeneous local transmission allows us to capture regional rabies dynamics; (ii) incursions from other regions account for less than 1% of cases, but allow for re-emergence of disease; (iii) herd immunity achieved through bi-annual vaccination campaigns is short-lived due to population turnover. Together, these findings highlight the need for regular and sustained vaccination efforts and our modelling approach can be used to provide strategic guidance for ORV delivery. Moreover, we show that biological understanding can be gained from inference from partially observed data on wildlife disease.

Preface to theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'

This preface forms part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants

The 1918 influenza pandemic is one of the most devastating infectious disease epidemics on record, having caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide. Control measures, including prohibiting non-essential gatherings as well as closing cinemas and music halls, were applied with varying success and limited knowledge of transmission dynamics. One hundred years later, following developments in the field of mathematical epidemiology, models are increasingly used to guide decision-making and devise appropriate interventions that mitigate the impacts of epidemics. Epidemiological models have been used as decision-making tools during outbreaks in human, animal and plant populations. However, as the subject has developed, human, animal and plant disease modelling have diverged. Approaches have been developed independently for pathogens of each host type, often despite similarities between the models used in these complementary fields. With the increased importance of a One Health approach that unifies human, animal and plant health, we argue that more inter-disciplinary collaboration would enhance each of the related disciplines. This pair of theme issues presents research articles written by human, animal and plant disease modellers. In this introductory article, we compare the questions pertinent to, and approaches used by, epidemiological modellers of human, animal and plant pathogens, and summarize the articles in these theme issues. We encourage future collaboration that transcends disciplinary boundaries and links the closely related areas of human, animal and plant disease epidemic modelling. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.