Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens

Mitigating the Counterpart Selection Effect for Standard Sirens

The disagreement in the Hubble constant measured by different cosmological probes highlights the need for a better understanding of the observations or new physics. The standard siren method, a novel approach using gravitational-wave observations to determine the distance to binary mergers, has great potential to provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant and shed light on the tension in the next few years. To realize this goal, we must thoroughly understand the sources of potential systematic bias of standard sirens. Among the known sources of systematic uncertainties, selection effects originating from electromagnetic counterpart observations of gravitational-wave sources may dominate the measurements with percent-level bias and no method to mitigate this effect is currently established. In this Letter, we develop a new formalism to mitigate the counterpart selection effect. We show that our formalism can reduce the systematic uncertainty of standard siren Hubble constant measurement to less than the statistical uncertainty with a simulated population of 200 observations (≲1%) for a realistic electromagnetic emission model. We conclude with how to apply our formalism to different electromagnetic emissions and observing scenarios.

Development of advanced photon calibrator for Kamioka gravitational wave detector (KAGRA)

The Kamioka Gravitational wave detector (KAGRA) cryogenic gravitational-wave observatory has commenced joint observations with the worldwide gravitational wave detector network. Precise calibration of the detector response is essential for accurately estimating parameters of gravitational wave sources. A photon calibrator is a crucial calibration tool used in laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatory, Virgo, and KAGRA, and it was utilized in joint observation 3 with GEO600 in Germany in April 2020. In this paper, KAGRA implemented three key enhancements: a high-power laser, a power stabilization system, and remote beam position control. KAGRA employs a 20 W laser divided into two beams that are injected onto the mirror surface. By utilizing a high-power laser, the response of the detector at kHz frequencies can be calibrated. To independently control the power of each laser beam, an optical follower servo was installed for power stabilization. The optical path of the photon calibrator's beam positions was controlled using pico-motors, allowing for the characterization of the detector's rotation response. Additionally, a telephoto camera and quadrant photodetectors were installed to monitor beam positions, and beam position control was implemented to optimize the mirror response. In this paper, we discuss the statistical errors associated with the measurement of relative power noise. We also address systematic errors related to the power calibration model of the photon calibrator and the simulation of elastic deformation effects using finite element analysis. Ultimately, we have successfully reduced the total systematic error from the photon calibrator to 2.0%.

Multi-Messenger Constraints on the Hubble Constant Through Combination of Gravitational Waves, Gamma-Ray Bursts and Kilonovae from Neutron Star Mergers

The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as “standard sirens”, this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods.

Prospects for Measuring the Hubble Constant with Neutron-Star-Black-Hole Mergers

Gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of neutron-star-black-hole (NSBH) mergers can provide precise local measurements of the Hubble constant (H_{0}), ideal for resolving the current H_{0} tension. We perform end-to-end analyses of realistic populations of simulated NSBHs, incorporating both GW and EM selection for the first time. We show that NSBHs could achieve unbiased 1.5%-2.4% precision H_{0} estimates by 2030. The achievable precision is strongly affected by the details of spin precession and tidal disruption, highlighting the need for improved modeling of NSBH mergers.

Systematic Uncertainty of Standard Sirens from the Viewing Angle of Binary Neutron Star Inspirals

The independent measurement of the Hubble constant with gravitational-wave standard sirens will potentially shed light on the tension between the local distance ladders and Planck experiments. Therefore, thorough understanding of the sources of systematic uncertainty for the standard siren method is crucial. In this Letter, we focus on two scenarios that will potentially dominate the systematic uncertainty of standard sirens. First, simulations of electromagnetic counterparts of binary neutron star mergers suggest aspherical emissions, so the binaries available for the standard siren method can be selected by their viewing angles. This selection effect can lead to ≳2% bias in Hubble constant measurement even with mild selection. Second, if the binary viewing angles are constrained by the electromagnetic counterpart observations but the bias of the constraints is not controlled under ∼10°, the resulting systematic uncertainty in the Hubble constant will be >3%. In addition, we find that both of the systematics cannot be properly removed by the viewing angle measurement from gravitational-wave observations. Comparing to the known dominant systematic uncertainty for standard sirens, the ≤2% gravitational-wave calibration uncertainty, the effects from the viewing angle appear to be more significant. Therefore, the systematic uncertainty from the viewing angle might be a major challenge before the standard sirens can resolve the tension in the Hubble constant, which is currently ∼9%.

Prospects for improving cosmological parameter estimation with gravitational-wave standard sirens from Taiji

Taiji, a space-based gravitational-wave observatory, consists of three satellites forming an equilateral triangle with arm length of 3×10⁶ km, orbiting around the Sun. Taiji is able to observe the gravitational-wave standard siren events of massive black hole binary (MBHB) merger, which is helpful in probing the expansion of the universe. In this paper, we preliminarily forecast the capability of Taiji for improving cosmological parameter estimation with the gravitational-wave standard siren data. We simulate five-year standard siren data based on three fiducial cosmological models and three models of MBHB's formation and growth. It is found that the standard siren data from Taiji can effectively break the cosmological parameter degeneracies generated by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies data, especially for dynamical dark energy models. The constraints on cosmological parameters are significantly improved by the data combination CMB + Taiji, compared to the CMB data alone. Compared to the current optical cosmological observations, Taiji can still provide help in improving the cosmological parameter estimation to some extent. In addition, we consider an ideal scenario to investigate the potential of Taiji on constraining cosmological parameters. We conclude that the standard sirens of MBHB from Taiji will become a powerful cosmological probe in the future.

Cosmic Expansion History from Line-Intensity Mapping

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) of emission from star-forming galaxies can be used to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale as far back as the epoch of reionization. This provides a standard cosmic ruler to constrain the expansion rate of the Universe at redshifts which cannot be directly probed otherwise. In light of growing tension between measurements of the current expansion rate using the local distance ladder and those inferred from the cosmic microwave background, extending the constraints on the expansion history to bridge between the late and early Universe is of paramount importance. Using a newly derived methodology to robustly extract cosmological information from LIM, which minimizes the inherent degeneracy with unknown astrophysics, we show that present and future experiments can gradually improve the measurement precision of the expansion rate history, ultimately reaching percent-level constraints on the BAO scale. Specifically, we provide detailed forecasts for the SPHEREx satellite, which will target the Hα and Lyman-α lines, for a near-future stage-2 experiment targeting CII, and for the ground-based COMAP instrument-as well as a future stage-3 experiment-that will target the CO rotational lines. Besides weighing in on the so-called Hubble tension, reliable LIM cosmic rulers can enable wide-ranging tests of dark matter, dark energy, and modified gravity.