Denver M, Behlendorf B. Shifting Peaks and Cumulative Consequences: Disqualifying Convictions in High-security Jobs.
THE JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN CRIME AND DELINQUENCY 2022;
59:279-326. [PMID:
35177870 PMCID:
PMC8841643 DOI:
10.1177/00224278211043926]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Disqualifying conviction lists (DCLs) bar applicants with certain convictions within specified timeframes from employment. Using proposed federal legislative changes in the aviation sector as a case study, we examine whether convictions under the existing policy are associated with subsequent arrest. Then we consider the implications of proposed expansions-arrests instead of convictions and a longer look-back window-on employment restrictions.
METHODS
Since DCLs exclude ineligible applicants with conviction records, we use a large, single-state sample of diverse criminal histories. We compare subsequent arrest rates across offense types, consider variations in hazard patterns, and project exclusion estimates based on current and anticipated policy reforms.
RESULTS
Only half of the disqualifying offenses have consistently higher recidivism rates than non-disqualifying offense types. Over 20 percent of the sample would be barred from employment, policy extensions double this estimate, and exclusions are age-graded, shifting a peak conviction age of 20 years old to a peak "consequence age" of 28.
CONCLUSIONS
Including a narrower set of offenses would reduce those automatically disqualified in our study context by nearly 20 percent, or 39,000 individuals. Instead of expanding the DCL scope, successful criteria should be both effective in prediction and narrow in application.
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