Data Requirement for Phylogenetic Inference from Multiple Loci: A New Distance Method

A stochastic Farris transform for genetic data under the multispecies coalescent with applications to data requirements

Species tree estimation faces many significant hurdles. Chief among them is that the trees describing the ancestral lineages of each individual gene-the gene trees-often differ from the species tree. The multispecies coalescent is commonly used to model this gene tree discordance, at least when it is believed to arise from incomplete lineage sorting, a population-genetic effect. Another significant challenge in this area is that molecular sequences associated to each gene typically provide limited information about the gene trees themselves. While the modeling of sequence evolution by single-site substitutions is well-studied, few species tree reconstruction methods with theoretical guarantees actually address this latter issue. Instead, a standard-but unsatisfactory-assumption is that gene trees are perfectly reconstructed before being fed into a so-called summary method. Hence much remains to be done in the development of inference methodologies that rigorously account for gene tree estimation error-or completely avoid gene tree estimation in the first place. In previous work, a data requirement trade-off was derived between the number of loci m needed for an accurate reconstruction and the length of the locus sequences k. It was shown that to reconstruct an internal branch of length f, one needs m to be of the order of [Formula: see text]. That previous result was obtained under the restrictive assumption that mutation rates as well as population sizes are constant across the species phylogeny. Here we further generalize this result beyond this assumption. Our main contribution is a novel reduction to the molecular clock case under the multispecies coalescent, which we refer to as a stochastic Farris transform. As a corollary, we also obtain a new identifiability result of independent interest: for any species tree with [Formula: see text] species, the rooted topology of the species tree can be identified from the distribution of its unrooted weighted gene trees even in the absence of a molecular clock.

Identifiability of species network topologies from genomic sequences using the logDet distance

Inference of network-like evolutionary relationships between species from genomic data must address the interwoven signals from both gene flow and incomplete lineage sorting. The heavy computational demands of standard approaches to this problem severely limit the size of datasets that may be analyzed, in both the number of species and the number of genetic loci. Here we provide a theoretical pointer to more efficient methods, by showing that logDet distances computed from genomic-scale sequences retain sufficient information to recover network relationships in the level-1 ultrametric case. This result is obtained under the Network Multispecies Coalescent model combined with a mixture of General Time-Reversible sequence evolution models across individual gene trees. It applies to both unlinked site data, such as for SNPs, and to sequence data in which many contiguous sites may have evolved on a common tree, such as concatenated gene sequences. Thus under standard stochastic models statistically justifiable inference of network relationships from sequences can be accomplished without consideration of individual genes or gene trees.

Origin and diversification of the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea): a within-species phylogenomic analysis

Reconstructing accurate historical relationships within a species poses numerous challenges, not least in many plant groups in which gene flow is high enough to extend well beyond species boundaries. Nonetheless, the extent of tree-like history within a species is an empirical question on which it is now possible to bring large amounts of genome sequence to bear. We assess phylogenetic structure across the geographic range of the saguaro cactus, an emblematic member of Cactaceae, a clade known for extensive hybridization and porous species boundaries. Using 200 Gb of whole genome resequencing data from 20 individuals sampled from 10 localities, we assembled two data sets comprising 150,000 biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from protein coding sequences. From these we inferred within-species trees and evaluated their significance and robustness using five qualitatively different inference methods. Despite the low sequence diversity, large census population sizes, and presence of wide-ranging pollen and seed dispersal agents, phylogenetic trees were well resolved and highly consistent across both data sets and all methods. We inferred that the most likely root, based on marginal likelihood comparisons, is to the east and south of the region of highest genetic diversity, which lies along the coast of the Gulf of California in Sonora, Mexico. Together with striking decreases in marginal likelihood found to the north, this supports hypotheses that saguaro's current range reflects post-glacial expansion from the refugia in the south of its range. We conclude with observations about practical and theoretical issues raised by phylogenomic data sets within species, in which SNP-based methods must be used rather than gene tree methods that are widely used when sequence divergence is higher. These include computational scalability, inference of gene flow, and proper assessment of statistical support in the presence of linkage effects.

OUP accepted manuscript

Motivation

Phylogenomics faces a dilemma: on the one hand, most accurate species and gene tree estimation methods are those that co-estimate them; on the other hand, these co-estimation methods do not scale to moderately large numbers of species. The summary-based methods, which first infer gene trees independently and then combine them, are much more scalable but are prone to gene tree estimation error, which is inevitable when inferring trees from limited-length data. Gene tree estimation error is not just random noise and can create biases such as long-branch attraction.

Results

We introduce a scalable likelihood-based approach to co-estimation under the multi-species coalescent model. The method, called quartet co-estimation (QuCo), takes as input independently inferred distributions over gene trees and computes the most likely species tree topology and internal branch length for each quartet, marginalizing over gene tree topologies and ignoring branch lengths by making several simplifying assumptions. It then updates the gene tree posterior probabilities based on the species tree. The focus on gene tree topologies and the heuristic division to quartets enables fast likelihood calculations. We benchmark our method with extensive simulations for quartet trees in zones known to produce biased species trees and further with larger trees. We also run QuCo on a biological dataset of bees. Our results show better accuracy than the summary-based approach ASTRAL run on estimated gene trees.

Availability and implementation

QuCo is available on https://github.com/maryamrabiee/quco.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Multispecies Coalescent: Theory and Applications in Phylogenetics

Species tree estimation is a basic part of many biological research projects, ranging from answering basic evolutionary questions (e.g., how did a group of species adapt to their environments?) to addressing questions in functional biology. Yet, species tree estimation is very challenging, due to processes such as incomplete lineage sorting, gene duplication and loss, horizontal gene transfer, and hybridization, which can make gene trees differ from each other and from the overall evolutionary history of the species. Over the last 10–20 years, there has been tremendous growth in methods and mathematical theory for estimating species trees and phylogenetic networks, and some of these methods are now in wide use. In this survey, we provide an overview of the current state of the art, identify the limitations of existing methods and theory, and propose additional research problems and directions.

Statistically consistent divide-and-conquer pipelines for phylogeny estimation using NJMerge

BACKGROUND

Divide-and-conquer methods, which divide the species set into overlapping subsets, construct a tree on each subset, and then combine the subset trees using a supertree method, provide a key algorithmic framework for boosting the scalability of phylogeny estimation methods to large datasets. Yet the use of supertree methods, which typically attempt to solve NP-hard optimization problems, limits the scalability of such approaches.

RESULTS

In this paper, we introduce a divide-and-conquer approach that does not require supertree estimation: we divide the species set into pairwise disjoint subsets, construct a tree on each subset using a base method, and then combine the subset trees using a distance matrix. For this merger step, we present a new method, called NJMerge, which is a polynomial-time extension of Neighbor Joining (NJ); thus, NJMerge can be viewed either as a method for improving traditional NJ or as a method for scaling the base method to larger datasets. We prove that NJMerge can be used to create divide-and-conquer pipelines that are statistically consistent under some models of evolution. We also report the results of an extensive simulation study evaluating NJMerge on multi-locus datasets with up to 1000 species. We found that NJMerge sometimes improved the accuracy of traditional NJ and substantially reduced the running time of three popular species tree methods (ASTRAL-III, SVDquartets, and "concatenation" using RAxML) without sacrificing accuracy. Finally, although NJMerge can fail to return a tree, in our experiments, NJMerge failed on only 11 out of 2560 test cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Theoretical and empirical results suggest that NJMerge is a valuable technique for large-scale phylogeny estimation, especially when computational resources are limited. NJMerge is freely available on Github (http://github.com/ekmolloy/njmerge).

Long-Branch Attraction in Species Tree Estimation: Inconsistency of Partitioned Likelihood and Topology-Based Summary Methods

With advances in sequencing technologies, there are now massive amounts of genomic data from across all life, leading to the possibility that a robust Tree of Life can be constructed. However, "gene tree heterogeneity", which is when different genomic regions can evolve differently, is a common phenomenon in multi-locus data sets, and reduces the accuracy of standard methods for species tree estimation that do not take this heterogeneity into account. New methods have been developed for species tree estimation that specifically address gene tree heterogeneity, and that have been proven to converge to the true species tree when the number of loci and number of sites per locus both increase (i.e., the methods are said to be "statistically consistent"). Yet, little is known about the biologically realistic condition where the number of sites per locus is bounded. We show that when the sequence length of each locus is bounded (by any arbitrarily chosen value), the most common approaches to species tree estimation that take heterogeneity into account (i.e., traditional fully partitioned concatenated maximum likelihood and newer approaches, called summary methods, that estimate the species tree by combining estimated gene trees) are not statistically consistent, even when the heterogeneity is extremely constrained. The main challenge is the presence of conditions such as long branch attraction that create biased tree estimation when the number of sites is restricted. Hence, our study uncovers a fundamental challenge to species tree estimation using both traditional and new methods.

SPECIES TREE INFERENCE FROM GENOMIC SEQUENCES USING THE LOG-DET DISTANCE

The log-det distance between two aligned DNA sequences was introduced as a tool for statistically consistent inference of a gene tree under simple non-mixture models of sequence evolution. Here we prove that the log-det distance, coupled with a distance-based tree construction method, also permits consistent inference of species trees under mixture models appropriate to aligned genomic-scale sequences data. Data may include sites from many genetic loci, which evolved on different gene trees due to incomplete lineage sorting on an ultrametric species tree, with different time-reversible substitution processes. The simplicity and speed of distance-based inference suggests log-det based methods should serve as benchmarks for judging more elaborate and computationally-intensive species trees inference methods.

Gilbert MT, Bafna V, Mirarab S. Skmer: assembly-free and alignment-free sample identification using genome skims

The ability to inexpensively describe taxonomic diversity is critical in this era of rapid climate and biodiversity changes. The recent genome-skimming approach extends current barcoding practices beyond short markers by applying low-pass sequencing and recovering whole organelle genomes computationally. This approach discards the nuclear DNA, which constitutes the vast majority of the data. In contrast, we suggest using all unassembled reads. We introduce an assembly-free and alignment-free tool, Skmer, to compute genomic distances between the query and reference genome skims. Skmer shows excellent accuracy in estimating distances and identifying the closest match in reference datasets.

Whole-genome sequences of Malawi cichlids reveal multiple radiations interconnected by gene flow

The hundreds of cichlid fish species in Lake Malawi constitute the most extensive recent vertebrate adaptive radiation. Here we characterize its genomic diversity by sequencing 134 individuals covering 73 species across all major lineages. The average sequence divergence between species pairs is only 0.1-0.25%. These divergence values overlap diversity within species, with 82% of heterozygosity shared between species. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that diversification initially proceeded by serial branching from a generalist Astatotilapia-like ancestor. However, no single species tree adequately represents all species relationships, with evidence for substantial gene flow at multiple times. Common signatures of selection on visual and oxygen transport genes shared by distantly related deep-water species point to both adaptive introgression and independent selection. These findings enhance our understanding of genomic processes underlying rapid species diversification, and provide a platform for future genetic analysis of the Malawi radiation.

Species Tree Estimation Using ASTRAL: How Many Genes Are Enough?

Species tree reconstruction from genomic data is increasingly performed using methods that account for sources of gene tree discordance such as incomplete lineage sorting. One popular method for reconstructing species trees from unrooted gene tree topologies is ASTRAL. In this paper, we derive theoretical sample complexity results for the number of genes required by ASTRAL to guarantee reconstruction of the correct species tree with high probability. We also validate those theoretical bounds in a simulation study. Our results indicate that ASTRAL requires gene trees to reconstruct the species tree correctly with high probability where is the number of species and is the length of the shortest branch in the species tree. Our simulations, some under the anomaly zone, show trends consistent with the theoretical bounds and also provide some practical insights on the conditions where ASTRAL works well.

The performance of coalescent-based species tree estimation methods under models of missing data

BACKGROUND

Estimation of species trees from multiple genes is complicated by processes such as incomplete lineage sorting, gene duplication and loss, and horizontal gene transfer, that result in gene trees that differ from each other and from the species phylogeny. Methods to estimate species trees in the presence of gene tree discord due to incomplete lineage sorting have been developed and proved to be statistically consistent when gene tree discord is due only to incomplete lineage sorting and every gene tree includes the full set of species.

RESULTS

We establish statistical consistency of certain coalescent-based species tree estimation methods under some models of taxon deletion from genes. We also evaluate the impact of missing data on four species tree estimation methods (ASTRAL-II, ASTRID, MP-EST, and SVDquartets) using simulated datasets with varying levels of incomplete lineage sorting, gene tree estimation error, and degrees/patterns of missing data.

CONCLUSIONS

All the species tree estimation methods improved in accuracy as the number of genes increased and often produced highly accurate species trees even when the amount of missing data was large. These results together indicate that accurate species tree estimation is possible under a variety of conditions, even when there are substantial amounts of missing data.

Identifiability of Phylogenetic Parameters from k-mer Data Under the Coalescent

Distances between sequences based on their k-mer frequency counts can be used to reconstruct phylogenies without first computing a sequence alignment. Past work has shown that effective use of k-mer methods depends on (1) model-based corrections to distances based on k-mers and (2) breaking long sequences into blocks to obtain repeated trials from the sequence-generating process. Good performance of such methods is based on having many high-quality blocks with many homologous sites, which can be problematic to guarantee a priori. Nature provides natural blocks of sequences into homologous regions-namely, the genes. However, directly using past work in this setting is problematic because of possible discordance between different gene trees and the underlying species tree. Using the multispecies coalescent model as a basis, we derive model-based moment formulas that involve the species divergence times and the coalescent parameters. From this setting, we prove identifiability results for the tree and branch length parameters under the Jukes-Cantor model of sequence mutations.

IDXL: Species Tree Inference Using Internode Distance and Excess Gene Leaf Count

We propose an extension of the distance matrix methods NJst and ASTRID to infer species trees from incongruent gene trees having Incomplete Lineage Sorting. Both approaches consider the average internode distance (ID) between individual taxa pairs as the distance measure. The measure ID does not use the root of a tree, and thus may not always infer the relative position of a taxon with respect to the root. We define a novel distance measure excess gene leaf count (XL) between individual couplets. The XL measure is computed using the root of a tree. It is proved to be additive, and is shown to infer the relative order of divergence among individual couplets better. We propose a novel method IDXL which uses both the XL and ID measures for species tree construction. IDXL is shown to perform better than NJst and other distance matrix approaches for most of the biological and simulated datasets. Having the same computational complexity as NJst, IDXL can be applied for species tree inference on large-scale biological datasets.

Anchoring quartet-based phylogenetic distances and applications to species tree reconstruction

Background

Inferring species trees from gene trees using the coalescent-based summary methods has been the subject of much attention, yet new scalable and accurate methods are needed.

Results

We introduce DISTIQUE, a new statistically consistent summary method for inferring species trees from gene trees under the coalescent model. We generalize our results to arbitrary phylogenetic inference problems; we show that two arbitrarily chosen leaves, called anchors, can be used to estimate relative distances between all other pairs of leaves by inferring relevant quartet trees. This results in a family of distance-based tree inference methods, with running times ranging between quadratic to quartic in the number of leaves.

Conclusions

We show in simulated studies that DISTIQUE has comparable accuracy to leading coalescent-based summary methods and reduced running times.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-016-3098-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An analytical upper bound on the number of loci required for all splits of a species tree to appear in a set of gene trees

Background

Many methods for species tree inference require data from a sufficiently large sample of genomic loci in order to produce accurate estimates. However, few studies have attempted to use analytical theory to quantify “sufficiently large”.

Results

Using the multispecies coalescent model, we report a general analytical upper bound on the number of gene trees n required such that with probability q, each bipartition of a species tree is represented at least once in a set of n random gene trees. This bound employs a formula that is straightforward to compute, depends only on the minimum internal branch length of the species tree and the number of taxa, and applies irrespective of the species tree topology. Using simulations, we investigate numerical properties of the bound as well as its accuracy under the multispecies coalescent.

Conclusions

Our results are helpful for conservatively bounding the number of gene trees required by the ASTRAL inference method, and the approach has potential to be extended to bound other properties of gene tree sets under the model.

ASTRID: Accurate Species TRees from Internode Distances

BACKGROUND

Incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modelled by the multi-species coalescent (MSC), is known to create discordance between gene trees and species trees, and lead to inaccurate species tree estimations unless appropriate methods are used to estimate the species tree. While many statistically consistent methods have been developed to estimate the species tree in the presence of ILS, only ASTRAL-2 and NJst have been shown to have good accuracy on large datasets. Yet, NJst is generally slower and less accurate than ASTRAL-2, and cannot run on some datasets.

RESULTS

We have redesigned NJst to enable it to run on all datasets, and we have expanded its design space so that it can be used with different distance-based tree estimation methods. The resultant method, ASTRID, is statistically consistent under the MSC model, and has accuracy that is competitive with ASTRAL-2. Furthermore, ASTRID is much faster than ASTRAL-2, completing in minutes on some datasets for which ASTRAL-2 used hours.

CONCLUSIONS

ASTRID is a new coalescent-based method for species tree estimation that is competitive with the best current method in terms of accuracy, while being much faster. ASTRID is available in open source form on github.

Weighted Statistical Binning: Enabling Statistically Consistent Genome-Scale Phylogenetic Analyses

Because biological processes can result in different loci having different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across multiple genomes. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called "summary methods". Because summary methods are generally fast (and much faster than more complicated coalescent-based methods that co-estimate gene trees and species trees), they have become very popular techniques for estimating species trees from multiple loci. However, recent studies have established that summary methods can have reduced accuracy in the presence of gene tree estimation error, and also that many biological datasets have substantial gene tree estimation error, so that summary methods may not be highly accurate in biologically realistic conditions. Mirarab et al. (Science 2014) presented the "statistical binning" technique to improve gene tree estimation in multi-locus analyses, and showed that it improved the accuracy of MP-EST, one of the most popular coalescent-based summary methods. Statistical binning, which uses a simple heuristic to evaluate "combinability" and then uses the larger sets of genes to re-calculate gene trees, has good empirical performance, but using statistical binning within a phylogenomic pipeline does not have the desirable property of being statistically consistent. We show that weighting the re-calculated gene trees by the bin sizes makes statistical binning statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent, and maintains the good empirical performance. Thus, "weighted statistical binning" enables highly accurate genome-scale species tree estimation, and is also statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model. New data used in this study are available at DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1411146, and the software is available at https://github.com/smirarab/binning.

Concatenation Analyses in the Presence of Incomplete Lineage Sorting

Incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modelled by the multi-species coalescent, is a process that results in a gene tree being different from the species tree. Because ILS is expected to occur for at least some loci within genome-scale analyses, the evaluation of species tree estimation methods in the presence of ILS is of great interest. Performance on simulated and biological data have suggested that concatenation analyses can result in the wrong tree with high support under some conditions, and a recent theoretical result by Roch and Steel proved that concatenation using unpartitioned maximum likelihood analysis can be statistically inconsistent in the presence of ILS. In this study, we survey the major species tree estimation methods, including the newly proposed "statistical binning" methods, and discuss their theoretical properties. We also note that there are two interpretations of the term "statistical consistency", and discuss the theoretical results proven under both interpretations.