Lost opportunity: Quantifying the dynamic economic impact of time‐area fishery closures

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

Emergent interactions in the management of multiple threats to the conservation of harbour porpoises

Human activities at sea are intensifying and diversifying. This is leading to more complex interactions of anthropogenic impacts requiring adaptable management interventions to mitigate their cumulative effects on biodiversity conservation and restoration objectives. Bycatch remains the dominant conservation threat for coastal cetaceans. Additionally, the indirect impact of repeated exposure to disturbances, particularly acoustic disturbances, can affect cetacean population growth and therefore conservation objectives. Pingers are used to ensonify nets to provide an effective mitigation of bycatch risk. As those become more prevalent across fisheries at risk to catch for example harbour porpoises, pingers become contributors to the anthropogenic noise landscape which may affect the vital rates of this species as well. Currently, we do not know how to best balance pinger prevalence to minimise both bycatch rate and the population consequences of acoustic disturbance (PCoD). Here we use an agent-based model to determine how pinger prevalence in nets can be adjusted to minimise bycatch rate and noise disturbance propagating to affect population growth for harbour porpoises. We show that counter-intuitively bycatch rate can increase at lower pinger prevalence. When ecological conditions are such that PCOD can emerge, higher prevalence of pingers can lead to indirect effects on population growth. This would result from condition-mediated decreased reproductive potential. Displacing fishing effort, via time-area closure, can be an effective mitigation strategy in these circumstances. These findings have important implications for current management plans which, for practical consideration, may lead to lower overall pinger prevalence at sea. This study also shows that estimating the reproductive potential of the species should be incorporated in bycatch monitoring programmes. We now need to better understand how physiological condition affect reproductive decisions and behavioural responses to noise in cetaceans to better appraise and estimate the cumulative impacts of bycatch and its mitigations.

Revenue loss due to whale entanglement mitigation and fishery closures

Whale entanglements with fishing gear, exacerbated by changing environmental conditions, pose significant risk to whale populations. Management tools used to reduce entanglement risk, for example temporary area restrictions on fishing, can have negative economic consequences for fishing communities. Balancing whale protection with sustaining productive fisheries is therefore a challenge experienced worldwide. In the California Current Ecosystem, ecosystem indicators have been used to understand the environmental dynamics that lead to increased whale entanglement risk in a lucrative crab fishery. However, an assessment of socio-economic risk for this fishery, as in many other regions, is missing. We estimate retrospectively the losses from ex-vessel revenue experienced by commercial Dungeness crab fishers in California during two seasons subject to whale entanglement mitigation measures using a Linear-Cragg hurdle modeling approach which incorporated estimates of pre-season crab abundance. In the 2020 fishing season, our results suggest total revenues would have been $14.4 million higher in the Central Management Area of California in the absence of closures and other disturbances. In the 2019 fishing season, our results suggest ex-vessel revenues would have been $9.4 million higher in the Central Management Area and $0.3 million higher in the Northern Management Area. Our evaluation should motivate the development of strategies which maximize whale protection whilst promoting productive, sustainable and economically-viable fisheries.

Trade-offs between bycatch and target catches in static versus dynamic fishery closures

The incidental catch of threatened species is still one of the main barriers to fisheries sustainability. What would happen if we closed 30% of the ocean to fishing with the goal of reducing bycatch? Analyzing 15 different fisheries around the globe, we found that under static area management, such as classic no-take marine area closures, observed bycatch could be reduced by 16%. However, under dynamic ocean management based on observed bycatch and closing the same total area but fragmented in smaller areas that can move year to year, that reduction can increase up to 57% at minimal or no loss of target catch.

While there have been recent improvements in reducing bycatch in many fisheries, bycatch remains a threat for numerous species around the globe. Static spatial and temporal closures are used in many places as a tool to reduce bycatch. However, their effectiveness in achieving this goal is uncertain, particularly for highly mobile species. We evaluated evidence for the effects of temporal, static, and dynamic area closures on the bycatch and target catch of 15 fisheries around the world. Assuming perfect knowledge of where the catch and bycatch occurs and a closure of 30% of the fishing area, we found that dynamic area closures could reduce bycatch by an average of 57% without sacrificing catch of target species, compared to 16% reductions in bycatch achievable by static closures. The degree of bycatch reduction achievable for a certain quantity of target catch was related to the correlation in space and time between target and bycatch species. If the correlation was high, it was harder to find an area to reduce bycatch without sacrificing catch of target species. If the goal of spatial closures is to reduce bycatch, our results suggest that dynamic management provides substantially better outcomes than classic static marine area closures. The use of dynamic ocean management might be difficult to implement and enforce in many regions. Nevertheless, dynamic approaches will be increasingly valuable as climate change drives species and fisheries into new habitats or extended ranges, altering species-fishery interactions and underscoring the need for more responsive and flexible regulatory mechanisms.