Outdoor human decomposition in Sweden: A retrospective quantitative study of forensic-taphonomic changes and postmortem interval in terrestrial and aquatic settings

Decomposition in an extreme cold environment and associated microbiome-prediction model implications for the postmortem interval estimation

Introduction

The accurate estimation of postmortem interval (PMI), the time between death and discovery of the body, is crucial in forensic science investigations as it impacts legal outcomes. PMI estimation in extremely cold environments becomes susceptible to errors and misinterpretations, especially with prolonged PMIs. This study addresses the lack of data on decomposition in extreme cold by providing the first overview of decomposition in such settings. Moreover, it proposes the first postmortem microbiome prediction model for PMI estimation in cold environments, applicable even when the visual decomposition is halted.

Methods

The experiment was conducted on animal models in the second-coldest region in the United States, Grand Forks, North Dakota, and covered 23 weeks, including the winter months with temperatures as low as -39°C. Random Forest analysis models were developed to estimate the PMI based either uniquely on 16s rRNA gene microbial data derived from nasal swabs or based on both microbial data and measurable environmental parameters such as snow depth and outdoor temperatures, on a total of 393 samples.

Results

Among the six developed models, the best performing one was the complex model based on both internal and external swabs. It achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.36 weeks and an R2 value of 0.91. On the other hand, the worst performing model was the minimal one that relied solely on external swabs. It had an MAE of 2.89 weeks and an R2 of 0.73. Furthermore, among the six developed models, the commonly identified predictors across at least five out of six models included the following genera: Psychrobacter (ASV1925 and ASV1929), Carnobacterium (ASV2872) and Pseudomonas (ASV1863).

Discussion

The outcome of this research provides the first microbial model able to predict PMI with an accuracy of 9.52 days over a six-month period of extreme winter conditions.

Retrospective analysis of factors affecting rate of skeletonization within a tropical climate

Estimating the post mortem interval (PMI) in skeletonized cases is an extremely challenging exercise. Sri Lanka lacks adequate taphonomic research which is a serious limitation when assessing PMI in forensic death investigations. Methods that have been proposed to estimate PMI using the total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree days (ADD) are mainly based on data from continental and temperate climates and have shown less reliability in tropical climates. With the intention of developing a region-specific, evidence-based guide which would be applicable to tropical climates like Sri Lanka, we selected thirteen skeletonized remains with known PMIs from forensic case records and analysed their taphonomy in relation to selected weather data. We also compared the ADD values within our dataset with reference ranges calculated using published formula. All except one were found from outdoor locations. The TBS ranged from 24 to 32 and had a weak positive correlation with the PMI. The earliest appearance of skeletonization was 15 days in a body found indoors. The highest rate of skeletonization was seen in a body with a TBS of 32 and a PMI of 23 days. The average daily temperature and relative humidity were similar across all the cases however, the amount of rainfall varied. Bodies exposed to monsoon rains (n = 6) had a lower mean rate of skeletonization compared to those that were not exposed (n = 4) suggesting lower rates of decomposition during periods of heavy rainfall. No correlation was found between ADD and TBS. In 9 (69.2%) cases, the actual ADD was much lower than reference ADD ranges for TBS values, indicating poor applicability of TBS and ADD based formulae in estimating PMI within the Sri Lankan climate. Our study shows a strong need for taphonomic and entomological research in tropical climates to further explore the impact of monsoons on biotic and abiotic factors affecting skeletonization.

Subaerial Decomposition of Small-Sized Remains in The Netherlands: Important Findings Regarding the PMI of a Four-Year Taphonomic Study

Studying post-mortem changes based on signs of decomposition (e.g., using scoring models) is one of the methods used in scientific studies to relate observable changes to the post-mortem interval (PMI). The majority of the studies on cadaver decomposition are based on large cadavers. There is limited literature on the decomposition pattern and rate of small cadavers, even though it is at least as important to be able to estimate the PMI for infants and subadults. Therefore, it is crucial to acquire knowledge of the decomposition process of child-sized remains. To fill this knowledge gap, a season-based subaerial outdoor decomposition study was conducted with small pig cadavers at the Forensic Anthropological Outdoor Research Facility located in Den Ham, The Netherlands, over a period of 4 years. Den Ham is located in the eastern part of the Netherlands, close to the German border, and has a temperate maritime climate, with a Cfb classification according to the Köppen-Geiger system. Salient findings were acquired during the decomposition study, specifically regarding a deviating decomposition rate during winter and the subsequent spring, reproducibility, the effect of body weight, post-mortem movement, the effect of heavy rainfall on insect activity, delayed bloating, the interaction of different insect species, and invertebrate activity. This article includes a systemic review of the results obtained during this four-year decomposition study and discusses the impact of the findings on the estimation of the PMI.

Informing regional taphonomy research using retrospective forensic anthropology cases in the Western Cape, South Africa

The post-mortem interval (PMI) is important in death investigations as it can assist in reconstructing the context of the case and the identification of the unknown individual. However, in some instances the PMI is challenging to estimate due to the absence of regional taphonomy standards. To conduct accurate and locally relevant forensic taphonomy research, investigators require insight into the regional hotspot recovery areas. Thus, forensic cases examined by the Forensic Anthropology Cape Town (FACT) in the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa between 2006 and 2018 (n = 172 cases; n = 174 individuals) were retrospectively reviewed. In our study, a considerable number of individuals did not have the PMI estimations (31 %; 54/174) and the ability to estimate a PMI was significantly associated with skeletal completeness, unburnt remains, absence of clothing and the absence of entomological evidence (p < 0.05 for each). Significantly fewer cases had the PMI estimated after FACT was formalised in 2014 (p < 0.0001). One third of cases with PMI estimations were made with large open-ended ranges, making them less informative. Factors significantly associated with these broad PMI ranges were fragmented remains, absence of clothing and absence of entomological evidence (p < 0.05 for each). Most decedents (51 %; 87/174) were discovered in police precincts from high crime areas, yet a considerable number (47 %; 81/174) were also found in low crime and sparsely populated areas regularly used for recreational activities. Common sites of body discovery were vegetated areas (23 %; 40/174), followed by the roadside (15 %; 29/174), aquatic environments (11 %; 20/174) and farms (11 %; 19/174). Decedents were discovered exposed (35 %; 62/174), covered with items such as bedding or shrubs (14 %; 25/174) or buried (10 %; 17/174). Our data highlight gaps in forensic taphonomy studies and clearly informs what regional research is needed. Overall, our study demonstrates how forensic case information can inform regional forensic taphonomy studies to locate common areas and contexts for the discovery of decomposed bodies and encourages similar studies in other areas of the world.

Development and implementation of forensic anthropology in Swedish forensic practice

This paper presents the ongoing development of forensic anthropology in Sweden. We discuss the background of the discipline, its application, as well as its current and potential development in Swedish forensic practice. Collaboration with osteoarchaeologists in skeletal forensic cases has a long tradition in Sweden. Analyses of skeletal remains are performed ad-hoc, in contrast to analyses of fleshed human remains. While several law enforcement employees are educated in forensic anthropology and/or osteoarchaeology, they are not employed in these fields, and regional variations are evident. Internationally, forensic anthropology has become an autonomous forensic discipline over the past decades, requiring skills beyond mere skeletal analysis. To keep on a par with international standards, it may be time to revisit the concept of forensic anthropology in Sweden. Despite the limited presence of supporting organisational structures and systems, forensic anthropological and hard-tissue-reliant physico-chemical analyses have proven valuable in Swedish forensic practice, especially in cases of personal identification, trauma analysis and search efforts. We argue that Sweden could benefit from making qualified forensic anthropology expertise available in all law enforcement regions, starting to implement and promote forensic anthropology in routine forensic casework and formalising the role of forensic anthropology practitioners.

Forensic human identification: retrospective investigation of anthropological assessments in the Western Cape, South Africa

The identification of unknown persons, particularly those who are decomposed or burnt, is a global challenge. Forensic Anthropology Cape Town (FACT) is a service provider that assists the South African state with the identification of human remains. However, empirical data pertaining to anthropologically analysed forensic cases in the Western Cape Province of South Africa are lacking. Therefore, anthropological data pertaining to the forensic cases submitted to FACT between 2006 and 2018 from Forensic Pathology Services were retrospectively reviewed (n = 172). This study also sought to assess demographic, traumatic and pathological factors that impacted successful identification. Most decedents were male (67%) and older than 35 years (54%). While ante-mortem trauma was observed in 41% of decedents, the lack of medical records on ante-mortem injuries hindered the use of this information for identification. Positive identifications were reached for 37% of decedents, and of these, anthropological estimations were correct in 98% of cases for sex, 84% of cases for age at death and 100% of cases for stature. Considering globally accepted accuracies of 70-80%, these estimations were considered highly accurate, suggesting the anthropological methods used are suited to the population. However, 63% of cases remained unidentified, and this study showed that skeletal completeness and pathological conditions were the main factors that hindered demographic estimations. Lastly, not all unidentified bodies in the province were referred to FACT; given the highly accurate estimations, these data advocate for the routine, if not mandatory, use of forensic anthropology services for skeletonised remains in South Africa, with the overall purpose of positively impacting human identification. To improve identification rates globally, these data highlight the value of retrospective and region-specific studies to identify strengths and weaknesses in the system.