Price MB, Yan G, Joshi M, Zhang T, Hickner BT, O'Mahony C, Goss J, Galván TN, Cotton RT, Rana A. Prediction of Kidney Allograft Discard Before Procurement: The Kidney Discard Risk Index.
EXP CLIN TRANSPLANT 2021;
19:204-211. [PMID:
33605206 DOI:
10.6002/ect.2020.0340]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
There is an 18.9% discard rate among kidney allografts. Here, we aimed to determine predictors of kidney discard and construct an index to identify high-probability discard kidney allografts prior to procurement.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
A total of 102 246 potential kidney allograft donors from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database were used in this analysis. The cohort was randomized into 2 groups. The training set included 67% of the cohort and was used to derive a predictive index for discard that comprised 21 factors identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The validation set included 33% and was used to internally validate the kidney discard risk index.
RESULTS
In 77.3% of donors, at least 1 kidney was used for transplant, whereas in 22.7% of donors, both kidneys were discarded. The kidney discard risk index was highly predictive of discard with a C statistic of 0.89 (0.88-0.89). The bottom 10th percentile had a discard rate of 0.73%, whereas the top 10th percentile had a discard rate of 83.65%. The 3 most predictive factors for discard were age, creatinine level, and hepatitis C antibody status.
CONCLUSIONS
We identified 21 factors predictive of discard prior to donor procurement and used these to develop a kidney discard risk index with a C statistic of 0.89.
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