Differential impact of age on survival in head and neck cancer according to classic Cox regression and decision tree analysis

Longitudinal Risk Analysis of Second Primary Cancer after Curative Treatment in Patients with Rectal Cancer

Predicting and improving the response of rectal cancer to second primary cancers (SPCs) remains an active and challenging field of clinical research. Identifying predictive risk factors for SPCs will help guide more personalized treatment strategies. In this study, we propose that experience data be used as evidence to support patient-oriented decision-making. The proposed model consists of two main components: a pipeline for extraction and classification and a clinical risk assessment. The study includes 4402 patient datasets, including 395 SPC patients, collected from three cancer registry databases at three medical centers; based on literature reviews and discussion with clinical experts, 10 predictive variables were considered risk factors for SPCs. The proposed extraction and classification pipelines that classified patients according to importance were age at diagnosis, chemotherapy, smoking behavior, combined stage group, and sex, as has been proven in previous studies. The C5 method had the highest predicted AUC (84.88%). In addition, the proposed model was associated with a classification pipeline that showed an acceptable testing accuracy of 80.85%, a recall of 79.97%, a specificity of 88.12%, a precision of 85.79%, and an F1 score of 79.88%. Our results indicate that chemotherapy is the most important prognostic risk factor for SPCs in rectal cancer survivors. Furthermore, our decision tree for clinical risk assessment illuminates the possibility of assessing the effectiveness of a combination of these risk factors. This proposed model may provide an essential evaluation and longitudinal change for personalized treatment of rectal cancer survivors in the future.

Using machine learning algorithm to analyse the hypothyroidism complications caused by radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer

Machine learning algorithms were used to analyze the odds and predictors of complications of thyroid damage after radiation therapy in patients with head and neck cancer. This study used decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms to evaluate predictors for the data of 137 head and neck cancer patients. Candidate factors included gender, age, thyroid volume, minimum dose, average dose, maximum dose, number of treatments, and relative volume of the organ receiving X dose (X: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 Gy). The algorithm was optimized according to these factors and tenfold cross-validation to analyze the state of thyroid damage and select the predictors of thyroid dysfunction. The importance of the predictors identified by the three machine learning algorithms was ranked: the top five predictors were age, thyroid volume, average dose, V50 and V60. Of these, age and volume were negatively correlated with thyroid damage, indicating that the greater the age and thyroid volume, the lower the risk of thyroid damage; the average dose, V50 and V60 were positively correlated with thyroid damage, indicating that the larger the average dose, V50 and V60, the higher the risk of thyroid damage. The RF algorithm was most accurate in predicting the probability of thyroid damage among the three algorithms optimized using the above factors. The Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.827 and the accuracy (ACC) was 0.824. This study found that five predictors (age, thyroid volume, mean dose, V50 and V60) are important factors affecting the chance that patients with head and neck cancer who received radiation therapy will develop hypothyroidism. Using these factors as the prediction basis of the algorithm and using RF to predict the occurrence of hypothyroidism had the highest ACC, which was 82.4%. This algorithm is quite helpful in predicting the probability of radiotherapy complications. It also provides references for assisting medical decision-making in the future.

Management of Older Patients with Head and Neck Cancer: A Comprehensive Review

The projected increase in life expectancy over the next few decades is expected to result in a rise in age-related diseases, including cancer. Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a worldwide health problem with high rates of morbidity and mortality. In this report, we have critically reviewed the literature reporting the management of older patients with HNC. Older adults are more prone to complications and toxicities secondary to HNC treatment, especially those patients who are frail or have comorbidities. Thus, this population should be screened prior to treatment for such predispositions to maximize medical management of comorbidities. Chronologic age itself is not a reason for choosing less intensive treatment for older HNC patients. Whenever possible, also older patients should be treated according to the best standard of care, as nonstandard approaches may result in increased treatment failure rates and mortality. The treatment plan is best established by a multidisciplinary tumor board with shared decision-making with patients and family. Treatment modifications should be considered for those patients who have severe comorbidities, evidence of frailty (low performance status), or low performance status or those who refuse the recommendations of the tumor board.

Prognostic factors and a dynamic model on cancer-specific survival for T1a N0 M0 glottic cancer: A population-based analysis and clinical validation

OBJECTIVES

The survival rate varies tremendously in T_1a N₀ M₀ glottic cancer patients, which may be associated with the difference on patients' characters, such as age, treatment, and marital status. The objective of this study is to identify the vital factors and construct a dynamic prognostic model for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with T_1a N₀ M₀ glottic cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The data of T_1a N₀ M₀ glottic cancer patients were extracted retrospectively from the SEER database between 2004 and 2015, which were randomly divided into the training dataset (70%) and the validation dataset (30%). The training cohort was used to identify independent prognostic factors and build the prognostic nomogram. While the validation cohort was used to validate the applicability of the newly constructed model.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The model was evaluated with the discrimination, the calibration, and the clinical benefit. The external data collecting from a medical center were used to validate the performance of the prognostic model.

RESULTS

Totally, 3286 eligible patients in the data of the SEER database and 139 eligible patients in our external clinical cohort were finally identified. 5 independent prognostic factors (age, marital status, Grade, primary site surgery, and chemotherapy) were identified and applied to develop the dynamic prognostic tool. C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses proved that the prognostic nomogram showed excellent predictive accuracy, ability, and prognostic value. Using internal and external cohorts, the validation of the model also proved its reliability.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic factors for T_1a N₀ M₀ glottic cancer were identified. The novel web-based prognostic prediction tool may be beneficial in clinical decision-making and has value in risk stratification, personalized treatment, and clinical trial design.

Adjuvant Radiotherapy Significantly Increases Neck Control and Survival in Early Oral Cancer Patients with Solitary Nodal Involvement: A National Cancer Registry Database Analysis

We assessed the role of adjuvant radiotherapy on neck control and survival in patients with early oral cancer with solitary nodal involvement. We identified pT1-2N1 oral cancer patients with or without adjuvant radiotherapy from the 2007-2015 Taiwan Cancer Registry database. The effect of adjuvant radiotherapy on 5-year neck control, overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests, and Cox regression analysis. Of 701 patients identified, 505 (72.0%) received adjuvant radiotherapy and 196 (28.0%) had surgery alone. Patients receiving adjuvant radiotherapy were more likely to be aged <65 years, pT2 stage, poorly graded and without comorbid conditions (all, p < 0.05). The 5-year OS and DFS differed significantly by receipt of adjuvant radiotherapy. Multivariable analysis showed adjuvant radiotherapy significantly associated with better 5-year OS (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.54-0.97; p = 0.0288) and DFS (aHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84; p = 0.0016). Stratified analysis indicated the greatest survival advantage for both 5-year OS and DFS in those with pT2 classification (p = 0.0097; 0.0009), and non-tongue disease (p = 0.0195; 0.0158). Moreover, adjuvant radiotherapy significantly protected against neck recurrence (aHR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.18-0.51; p < 0.0001). Thus, adjuvant radiotherapy is associated with improved neck control and survival in these early oral cancer patients.

Proteomic analysis of hypopharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma sheds light on differences in survival

The link between differences in molecular expression and survival among advanced laryngeal (LSCC) and hypopharyngeal squamous carcinoma (HPSCC) remains unclear. Here, we applied the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, Isobaric tag for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ) with Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS) proteomics data and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) related data to discover the possible disparities between HPSCC and LSCC. Our results showed a significantly worse 5-year overall-survival in HPSCC compared with LSCC before and after adjusting for clinical parameters. 240 differentially expressed proteins were enriched in molecular networks of cytoskeleton remodeling and antigen presentation. Moreover, HPSCC consisted of less T-central-memory cells, T-follicular-helper cells, TGF-β response, and CD4⁺  T memory resting cells, but more wound healing than LSCC. Furthermore, 9 mRNAs expression were  significantly and independently correlated to overall survival in 126 HPSCC and LSCC patients, which was further validated in another cohort of head and neck cancers. These findings support that Immunity signatures as well as pathway networks that include cytoskeleton remodeling and antigen presentation may contribute to the observed differences in survival between HPSCC and LSCC.

Predictors for distant metastasis in head and neck cancer, with emphasis on age

PURPOSE

Distant metastasis (DM) in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is uncommon, but strongly deteriorates prognosis. Controversy exists regarding age as a predictor for the presence and development of DM. The aim of this study was to investigate age and other predictors for DM in HNSCC patients.

METHODS

From 1413 patients diagnosed with a primary HNSCC between 1999 and 2010 in a tertiary referral centre, patient, disease and pathological characteristics were extracted from patient files. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for DM as primary outcome.

RESULTS

DM occurred in 131 (9.3%) patients, of which 27 (1.9%) were diagnosed simultaneously with the primary tumour, 27 (1.9%) were diagnosed synchronous, and 77 (5.4%) were diagnosed metachronous. The most common site of DM was lung (51.1%), followed by bone (19.1%) and liver (11.5%). Multivariable analysis identified male gender (HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.23-3.10) hypopharyngeal tumours (HR = 3.28, 95% CI 1.75-6.14), advanced T-stage (HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.09-2.38), poor differentiation grade (HR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.07-5.78), regional lymph node metastasis (HR = 5.35, 95% CI 3.25-8.79) and extranodal extension of regional lymph nodes metastasis (HR = 3.06, 95% CI 1.39-6.72) as independent prognostic factors for the presence or development of DM. No relation with age was found.

CONCLUSION

Age is not related to the presence or development of DM. This study emphasizes the importance of screening for DM, especially in males, patients with hypopharyngeal tumours, advanced T-stage, histopathological poor differentiation grade, regional lymph node metastasis and extranodal extension.

Does age influence disease-specific survival in patients with squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The number of patients diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) at an advanced age has increased. The aim of this study is to evaluate the age at which disease-specific survival (DSS) significantly decreases in HNSCC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 5469 patients with HNSCC treated at our center (1985-2016). External validation with 2082 oral squamous cell carcinomas from a collaborative institution from another continent was performed.

RESULTS

We observed an orderly decrease in overall survival as age at diagnosis increased. There were no differences in DSS based on age for patients <80 years old (P = .623), while older patients had a significant decrease in DSS. These results were validated in the independent dataset. In a multivariable analysis performed in the test set, compared to patients <80 years old, patients between 80 to 85 had a 1.50 times higher risk of disease-specific death (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.89; P = .001), and patients >85 had a 2.19 times higher risk (95% CI: 1.68-2.87; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

DSS started to significantly decrease in HNSCC at 80 years old. These findings, validated in an independent cohort, indicate that chronological age on its own should not withhold curative treatment in the majority of patients with HNSCC.

Radiotherapy-Induced Changes in the Systemic Immune and Inflammation Parameters of Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Though radiotherapy is a local therapy, it has systemic effects mainly influencing immune and inflammation processes. This has important consequences in the long-term prognosis and therapy individualization. Our objective was to investigate immune and inflammation-related changes in the peripheral blood of head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. Peripheral blood cells, plasma and blood cell-derived RNA were isolated from 23 patients before and at two time points after radiotherapy and cellular immune parameters, plasma protein changes and gene expression alterations were studied. Increased regulatory T cells and increased CTLA4 and PD-1 expression on CD4 cells indicated an immune suppression induced by the malignant condition, which was accentuated by radiotherapy. Circulating dendritic cells were strongly elevated before treatment and were not affected by radiotherapy. Decreased endoglin levels in the plasma of patients before treatment were further decreased by radiotherapy. Expression of the FXDR, SESN1, GADD45, DDB2 and MDM2 radiation-response genes were altered in the peripheral blood cells of patients after radiotherapy. All changes were long-lasting, detectable one month after radiotherapy. In conclusion we demonstrated radiotherapy-induced changes in systemic immune parameters of head and neck cancer patients and proposed markers suitable for patient stratification worth investigating in larger patient cohorts.

Prognostic Significance of Peripheral T-Cell Subsets in Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objectives

The role of the immune system in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma is controversial. The aim of our study was to analyze full blood counts and distribution of T cell subsets in patients affected by laryngeal squamous cell cancer (LSCC) and their association with clinical variables and survival.

Study design

Retrospective study.

Methods

We analyzed the levels of platelets, lymphocytes, and neutrophils, as well as the CD4⁺, CD8⁺, and CD3⁺ T‐cell subpopulations by cytofluorometry in LSCC patients. A cohort of healthy patients was used as control group. The disease‐specific survival (DSS) was considered as survival outcome.

Results

Sixty‐five LSCC patients and 48 controls were enrolled. In LSCC patients, neutrophils were higher than in the healthy group (P < .0001). The neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were both higher in LSCC patients (P < .0001). In patients treated for recurrent disease, the CD8⁺/CD3⁺ ratio was increased (P = .02), while the CD4⁺/CD8⁺ (P = .03) and CD4⁺/CD3⁺ (P = .04) ratios were lower. In patients with lymph node metastases, leukocytes (P = .03), CD3⁺ (P = .04), and CD4⁺ (P = .0098) were all higher. Among Stages III‐IV patients, low lymphocyte and low leukocyte count were associated with worse DSS.

Conclusion

Our data demonstrate that NLR and PLR are significantly increased in LSCC. Lower CD4⁺/CD8⁺ and CD3⁺/CD8⁺ ratios are related to recurrent disease and a higher level of CD3⁺ and CD4⁺ is associated with nodal metastasis.

Level of Evidence

4

Open Partial Horizontal Laryngectomies for T3⁻T4 Laryngeal Cancer: Prognostic Impact of Anterior vs. Posterior Laryngeal Compartmentalization

Open partial horizontal laryngectomies (OPHLs) are well-established and oncologically safe procedures for intermediate–advanced laryngeal cancers (LC). T–N categories are well-known prognosticators: herein we tested if “anterior” vs. “posterior” tumor location (as defined in respect to the paraglottic space divided according to a plane passing through the arytenoid vocal process, perpendicular to the ipsilateral thyroid lamina) may represent an additional prognostic factor. We analyzed a retrospective cohort of 85 T3–4a glottic LCs, treated by Type II or III OPHL (according to the European Laryngological Society classification) from 2005 to 2017 at two academic institutions. Five-year overall survival (OS), disease-specific survivals (DSS), and recurrence-free survivals (RFS) were compared according to tumor location and pT category. Anterior and posterior tumors were 43.5% and 56.5%, respectively, 78.8% of lesions were T3 and 21.2% were T4a. Five-year OS, DSS, and RFS for T3 were 74.1%, 80.5%, and 63.4%, respectively, and for T4a 71.8%, 71.8%, and 43%, respectively (p not significant). In relation to tumor location, the survival outcomes were 91%, 94.1%, and 72.6%, respectively, for anterior tumors, and 60.3%, 66.3%, and 49.1%, respectively, for posterior lesions (statistically significant differences). These data provide evidence that laryngeal compartmentalization is a valid prognosticator, even more powerful than the pT category.