Evaluating the incidence of pathological complete response in current international rectal cancer practice: the barriers to widespread safe deferral of surgery

Assessment of circulating tumor DNA in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Post-neoadjuvant therapy (post-NAT) and post-surgical circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) risk stratification may enhance the management of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this study, we assessed the prognostic value of ctDNA-based MRD detection in LARC patients using a personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA assay. Plasma samples from LARC patients (N = 30) were analyzed retrospectively using the Signatera™ assay. The neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score was calculated and compared to ctDNA status to predict recurrence risk and survival outcomes. ctDNA-positive patients post-NAT and post-surgery had worse Disease Free Survival (DFS) (HR: 7.82; p = 0.001, HR: 19.65; p = 0.001) when compared to ctDNA-negative patients. In the post-NAT setting, patients who responded to NAT had superior DFS compared to patients who did not clear their ctDNA or showed no radiological response (HR: 24.7, p = 0.001 and HR: 5.1, p = 0.054, respectively). When ctDNA status is used alongside the NAR score in the post-NAT setting, patients who were ctDNA-positive with an intermediate or high NAR score showed significantly worse DFS (HR: 47.5, p < 0.001) compared to ctDNA-negative patients with either a low or intermediate/high NAR score (HR: 9.8, p = 0.0301). Post-NAT ctDNA status, whether used alone or in combination with the NAR score, may predict NAT response, and improve risk stratification.

ctDNA responds to neoadjuvant treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Liquid biopsy is a minimally invasive procedure investigating tumor mutations.

METHODS

In our retrospective study, we investigated whether molecular therapy monitoring of patients receiving neoadjuvant radio(chemo)therapy on a daily routine is possible in 17 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Six patients received short-course radiotherapy (5 × 5 Gy) with subsequent surgery, six patients were treated according RAPIDO protocol with short-course radiotherapy followed by chemotherapy (FOLFOX4) and subsequent surgery and five patients received conventional neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy with 5-FU followed by surgery. Response was assessed by Dworak. Liquid biopsies were taken before and immediately after neoadjuvant radiotherapy to isolate and ultradeeply sequence cell free DNA with a panel of 127 genes. Somatic mutations were determined bioinformatically by comparison with normal DNA from leukocytes to distinguish them from germline variants or aging mutations.

RESULTS

In 12 patients (71%) at least one somatic mutation was detected. In 8/12 patients a decrease and in 4/12 an increase or mixed response in ctDNA was seen. Statistical correlation between ctDNA analysis and clinical response could not be seen.

CONCLUSION

ctDNA is responding to neoadjuvant therapy and liquid biopsy is easily integrated into a daily routine. As part of translational research this protocol leaves room for further investigations.

International Validation of the Immunoscore Biopsy in Patients With Rectal Cancer Managed by a Watch-and-Wait Strategy

PURPOSE

No biomarker capable of improving selection and monitoring of patients with rectal cancer managed by watch-and-wait (W&W) strategy is currently available. Prognostic performance of the Immunoscore biopsy (ISB) was recently suggested in a preliminary study.

METHODS

This international validation study included 249 patients with clinical complete response (cCR) managed by W&W strategy. Intratumoral CD3+ and CD8+ T cells were quantified on pretreatment rectal biopsies by digital pathology and converted to ISB. The primary end point was time to recurrence (TTR; the time from the end of neoadjuvant treatment to the date of local regrowth or distant metastasis). Associations between ISB and outcomes were analyzed by stratified Cox regression adjusted for confounders. Immune status of tumor-draining lymph nodes (n = 161) of 17 additional patients treated by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery was investigated by 3'RNA-Seq and immunofluorescence.

RESULTS

Recurrence-free rates at 5 years were 91.3% (82.4%-100.0%), 62.5% (53.2%-73.3%), and 53.1% (42.4%-66.5%) with ISB High, ISB Intermediate, and ISB Low, respectively (hazard ratio [HR; Low v High], 6.51; 95% CI, 1.99 to 21.28; log-rank P = .0004). ISB was also significantly associated with disease-free survival (log-rank P = .0002), and predicted both local regrowth and distant metastasis. In multivariate analysis, ISB was independent of patient age, sex, tumor location, cT stage (T, primary tumor; c, clinical), cN stage (N, regional lymph node; c, clinical), and was the strongest predictor for TTR (HR [ISB High v Low], 6.93; 95% CI, 2.08 to 23.15; P = .0017). The addition of ISB to a clinical-based model significantly improved the prediction of recurrence. Finally, B-cell proliferation and memory in draining lymph nodes was evidenced in the draining lymph nodes of patients with cCR.

CONCLUSION

The ISB is validated as a biomarker to predict both local regrowth and distant metastasis, with a gradual scaling of the risk of pejorative outcome.

The Crying Need for a Better Response Assessment in Rectal Cancer

OPINION STATEMENT

Since total neoadjuvant treatment achieves almost 30% pathologic complete response, organ preservation has been increasingly debated for good responders after neoadjuvant treatment for patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. Two organ preservation strategies are available: a watch and wait strategy and a local excision strategy including patients with a near clinical complete response. A major issue is the selection of patients according to the initial tumor staging or the response assessment. Despite modern imaging improvement, identifying complete response remains challenging. A better selection could be possible by radiomics analyses, exploiting numerous image features to feed data characterization algorithms. The subsequent step is to include baseline and/or pre-therapeutic MRI, PET-CT, and CT radiomics added to the patients' clinicopathological data, inside machine learning (ML) prediction models, with predictive or prognostic purposes. These models could be further improved by the addition of new biomarkers such as circulating tumor biomarkers, molecular profiling, or pathological immune biomarkers.

Assessing the predictive value of clinical factors to pathological complete response for locally advanced rectal cancer: An analysis of 124 patients

Purpose

To investigate the clinical factors affecting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

Clinical data of 124 LARC patients treated with nCRT and surgery in the fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from 2014 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. In this study, univariate analysis and logistic dichotomous multivariate regression analysis were used to study the clinical factors affecting pCR, and the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to further verify the accuracy of partial indexes in predicting pCR.

Results

Of the 124 enrolled patients, 19 patients (15.32%) achieved pCR. Univariate analysis showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) level before treatment, MRI longitudinal length of tumor, and extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) were statistically correlated with pCR. ROC analysis of the longitudinal length of tumor measured by MRI showed that the area under the curve (AUC) value, sensitivity and specificity were 0.735, 89.47% and 48.57% respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 5.5cm. The ROC analysis showed that the AUC value, sensitivity and specificity of pCR prediction using CEA were 0.741, 63.16% and 90.48%, respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 3.1ng/ml. Multivariate results showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI were independent predictors of pCR.

Conclusion

The number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI may be important determinants of LARC patients to reach pCR after nCRT.

Pathologic complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy/(re)chemoradiation for pelvic relapse of rectal cancer undergoing complex pelvic surgery: more frequent than expected?

PURPOSE

To estimate the rate of pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy/(re)chemoradiation and its impact on survival in locally recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC) and to identify predictors of pCR or differences between neoadjuvant treatments.

METHODS

Among 394 LRRC patients treated at the National Cancer Institute of Milan (Italy), 74 (27.8%) were treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy with or without (re)chemoradiation before surgery. The pCR rate was estimated, and its impact on 5-year survival was evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier survival method. Univariate analysis was performed to find pre-treatment predictors of pCR.

RESULTS

After surgery, in 12 (16.2%) patients, a pCR was observed. All patients who reached pCR had R0 margins after surgery; among the 62 non-pCR patients, R0 margins were obtained in 29 (46.8%) cases only (p = 0.0004). pCR patients showed a significantly higher 5-year overall survival compared to non-pCR cases (33.3% vs. 21.0%, p = 0.045) and a trend toward better 5-year re-local recurrence-free survival. On univariate analysis, no predictor of pCR was found in the present study based on pre-treatment features.

CONCLUSION

Since pCR is significantly associated to R0 resection and 5-year overall survival, pCR could be a target for LRRC cure. However, pCR is currently unpredictable based on pre-treatment features.

Combining Clinicopathology, IVIM-DWI and Texture Parameters for a Nomogram to Predict Treatment Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients

Objectives

This study aimed to create a nomogram for the risk prediction of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) resistance in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

Clinical data in this retrospective study were collected from a total of 135 LARC patients admitted to our hospital from June 2016 to December 2020. After screening by inclusion and exclusion criteria, 62 patients were included in the study. Texture analysis (TA) was performed on T2WI and DWI images. Patients were divided into response group (CR+PR) and no-response group (SD+PD) according to efficacy assessment. Multivariate analysis was performed on clinicopathology, IVIM-DWI and texture parameters for screening of independent predictors. A nomogram was created and model fit and clinical net benefit were assessed.

Results

Multivariate analysis of clinicopathology parameters showed that the differentiation and T stage were independent predictors (OR values were 14.516 and 11.589, resp.; P<0.05). Multivariate analysis of IVIM-DWI and texture parameters showed that f value and Rads-score were independent predictors (OR values were 0.855, 2.790, resp.; P<0.05). In this study, clinicopathology together with IVIM-DWI and texture parameters showed the best predictive efficacy (AUC=0.979). The nomogram showed good predictive performance and stability in identifying high-risk LARC patients who are resistant to nCRT (C-index=0.979). Decision curve analyses showed that the nomogram had the best clinical net benefit. Ten-fold cross-validation results showed that the average AUC value was 0.967, and the average C-index was 0.966.

Conclusions

The nomogram combining the differentiation, T stage, f value and Rads-score can effectively estimate the risk of nCRT resistance in patients with LARC.

Long-Term Outcome in a Phase II Study of Regional Hyperthermia Added to Preoperative Radiochemotherapy in Locally Advanced and Recurrent Rectal Adenocarcinomas

Hyperthermia was added to standard preoperative chemoradiation for rectal adenocarcinomas in a phase II study. Patients with T3-4 N0-2 M0 rectal cancer or local recurrences were included. Radiation dose was 54 Gy combined with capecitabine 825 mg/m2 × 2 daily and once weekly oxaliplatin 55 mg/m2. Regional hyperthermia aimed at 41.5–42.5 °C for 60 min combined with oxaliplatin infusion. Radical surgery with total or extended TME technique, was scheduled at 6–8 weeks after radiation. From April 2003 to April 2008, a total of 49 eligible patients were recruited. Median number of hyperthermia sessions were 5.4. A total of 47 out of 49 patients (96%) had the scheduled surgery, which was clinically radical in 44 patients. Complete tumour regression occurred in 29.8% of the patients who also exhibited statistically significantly better RFS and CSS. Rate of local recurrence alone at 10 years was 9.1%, distant metastases alone occurred in 25.6%, including local recurrences 40.4%. RFS for all patients was 54.8% after 5 years and CSS was 73.5%. Patients with T50 temperatures in tumours above median 39.9 °C had better RFS, 66.7% vs. 31.3%, p = 0.047, indicating a role of hyperthermia. Toxicity was acceptable.

Collaboration in colorectal surgical research

Surgical research has been under-powered, under-funded and under-delivered for decades. A solution may be to form large research collaborations and thereby enable implementation of successful interventional trials as well as robust international observational studies with thousands of patients. There are many such research collaborations in colorectal surgery, and in this paper we have highlighted the experiences from the West Midlands Research Collaborative (WMRC), the Scandinavian Surgical Outcomes Research Group (SSORG) and the European Society of Coloproctology. With active research networks, it is possible to deliver large, high-quality studies and provide high-level evidence for solving important clinical questions in an efficient and timely manner.

Utility of ctDNA in predicting response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and prognosis assessment in locally advanced rectal cancer: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

For locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who receive neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT), there are no reliable indicators to accurately predict pathological complete response (pCR) before surgery. For patients with clinical complete response (cCR), a "Watch and Wait" (W&W) approach can be adopted to improve quality of life. However, W&W approach may increase the recurrence risk in patients who are judged to be cCR but have minimal residual disease (MRD). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a major tool to evaluate response to nCRT; however, its ability to predict pCR needs to be improved. In this prospective cohort study, we explored the value of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in combination with MRI in the prediction of pCR before surgery and investigated the utility of ctDNA in risk stratification and prognostic prediction for patients undergoing nCRT and total mesorectal excision (TME).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We recruited 119 Chinese LARC patients (cT3-4/N0-2/M0; median age of 57; 85 males) who were treated with nCRT plus TME at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (China) from February 7, 2016 to October 31, 2017. Plasma samples at baseline, during nCRT, and after surgery were collected. A total of 531 plasma samples were collected and subjected to deep targeted panel sequencing of 422 cancer-related genes. The association among ctDNA status, treatment response, and prognosis was analyzed. The performance of ctDNA alone, MRI alone, and combining ctDNA with MRI was evaluated for their ability to predict pCR/non-pCR. Ranging from complete tumor regression (pathological tumor regression grade 0; pTRG0) to poor regression (pTRG3), the ctDNA clearance rate during nCRT showed a significant decreasing trend (95.7%, 77.8%, 71.1%, and 66.7% in pTRG 0, 1, 2, and 3 groups, respectively, P = 0.008), while the detection rate of acquired mutations in ctDNA showed an increasing trend (3.8%, 8.3%, 19.2%, and 23.1% in pTRG 0, 1, 2, and 3 groups, respectively, P = 0.02). Univariable logistic regression showed that ctDNA clearance was associated with a low probability of non-pCR (odds ratio = 0.11, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.01 to 0.6, P = 0.04). A risk score predictive model, which incorporated both ctDNA (i.e., features of baseline ctDNA, ctDNA clearance, and acquired mutation status) and MRI tumor regression grade (mrTRG), was developed and demonstrated improved performance in predicting pCR/non-pCR (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.886, 95% CI = 0.810 to 0.962) compared with models derived from only ctDNA (AUC = 0.818, 95% CI = 0.725 to 0.912) or only mrTRG (AUC = 0.729, 95% CI = 0.641 to 0.816). The detection of potential colorectal cancer (CRC) driver genes in ctDNA after nCRT indicated a significantly worse recurrence-free survival (RFS) (hazard ratio [HR] = 9.29, 95% CI = 3.74 to 23.10, P < 0.001). Patients with detectable driver mutations and positive high-risk feature (HR_feature) after surgery had the highest recurrence risk (HR = 90.29, 95% CI = 17.01 to 479.26, P < 0.001). Limitations include relatively small sample size, lack of independent external validation, no serial ctDNA testing after surgery, and a relatively short follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

The model combining ctDNA and MRI improved the predictive performance compared with the models derived from individual information, and combining ctDNA with HR_feature can stratify patients with a high risk of recurrence. Therefore, ctDNA can supplement MRI to better predict nCRT response, and it could potentially help patient selection for nonoperative management and guide the treatment strategy for those with different recurrence risks.

Pre-clinical modelling of rectal cancer to develop novel radiotherapy-based treatment strategies

Pre-operative chemoradiotherapy reduces local recurrence rates in locally advanced rectal cancer. 10-20% of patients undergo complete response to chemoradiotherapy, however, many patients show no response. The mechanisms underlying this are poorly understood; identifying molecular and immunological factors underpinning heterogeneous responses to chemoradiotherapy, will promote development of treatment strategies to improve responses and overcome resistance mechanisms. This review describes the advances made in pre-clinical modelling of colorectal cancer, including genetically engineered mouse models, transplantation models, patient derived organoids and radiotherapy platforms to study responses to chemoradiotherapy. Relevant literature was identified through the PubMed and MEDLINE databases, using the following keywords: rectal cancer; mouse models; organoids; neo-adjuvant treatment; radiotherapy; chemotherapy. By delineating the advantages and disadvantages of available models, we discuss how modelling techniques can be utilized to address current research priorities in locally advanced rectal cancer. We provide unique insight into the potential application of pre-clinical models in the development of novel neo-adjuvant treatment strategies, which will hopefully guide future clinical trials.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Associations Between Routinely Collected Staging Information and The Response to (Chemo)Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

Simple Summary

Rectal cancer patients are often treated with radiotherapy, either alone or combined with chemotherapy, prior to surgery to enable radical surgery on a non-resectable tumor or to lower the recurrence risk. For some patients, the tumor disappears completely after preoperative treatment, while others experience little or no benefit. Accurate prediction of therapy response before treatment is of great importance for a personalized treatment approach and intentional organ preservation. We performed a comprehensive evaluation of the predictive capacity of all routinely collected staging information at diagnosis in a population-based, completely staged patient material of 383 patients representing a real-life clinical situation. Size or stage of the rectal tumor were independent predictors of excellent response irrespective of preoperative treatment, with small/early-stage tumors being significantly more likely to reach a complete response. Levels of the tumor marker carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) above upper normal limit halved the chance of response.

Abstract

Radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) are frequently used in rectal cancer, sometimes resulting in complete tumor remission (CR). The predictive capacity of all clinical factors, laboratory values and magnetic resonance imaging parameters performed in routine staging was evaluated to understand what determines an excellent response to RT/CRT. A population-based cohort of 383 patients treated with short-course RT (5 × 5 Gy in one week, scRT), CRT, or scRT with chemotherapy (scRT+CT) and having either had a delay to surgery or been entered into a watch-and-wait program were included. Complete staging according to guidelines was performed and associations between investigated variables and CR rates were analyzed in univariate and multivariate analyses. In total, 17% achieved pathological or clinical CR, more often after scRT+CT and CRT than after scRT (27%, 18% and 8%, respectively, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with CR included clinical tumor stage, small tumor size (<3 cm), tumor level, and low CEA-value (<3.8 μg/L). Size or stage of the rectal tumor were associated with excellent response in all therapy groups, with small or early stage tumors being significantly more likely to reach CR (p = 0.01 (scRT), p = 0.01 (CRT) and p = 0.02 (scRT+CT). Elevated level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) halved the chance of response. Extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) and mucinous character may indicate less response to RT alone.

A Diagnostic Biopsy-Adapted Immunoscore Predicts Response to Neoadjuvant Treatment and Selects Patients with Rectal Cancer Eligible for a Watch-and-Wait Strategy

PURPOSE

No biomarker to personalize treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) is currently available. We assessed in LARC whether a diagnostic biopsy-adapted immunoscore (ISB) could predict response to neoadjuvant treatment (nT) and better define patients eligible to an organ preservation strategy ("Watch-and-Wait").

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Biopsies from two independent cohorts (n 1 = 131, n 2 = 118) of patients with LARC treated with nT followed by radical surgery were immunostained for CD3+ and CD8+ T cells and quantified by digital pathology to determine ISB. The expression of immune-related genes post-nT was investigated (n = 64 patients). Results were correlated with response to nT and disease-free survival (DFS). The ISB prognostic performance was further assessed in a multicentric cohort (n = 73 patients) treated by Watch-and-Wait.

RESULTS

ISB positively correlated with the degree of histologic response (P < 0.001) and gene expression levels for Th1 orientation and cytotoxic immune response, post-nT (P = 0.006). ISB high identified patients at lower risk of relapse or death compared with ISB low [HR, 0.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.06-0.78; P = 0.009]. Prognostic performance of ISB for DFS was confirmed in a validation cohort. ISB was an independent parameter, more informative than pre- (P < 0.001) and post-nT (P < 0.05) imaging to predict DFS. ISB combined with imaging post-nT discriminated very good responders that could benefit from organ preservation strategy. In the "Watch-and-Wait" cohort (n = 73), no relapse was observed in patients with ISB high (23.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

ISB predicts response to nT and survival in patients with LARC treated by surgery. Its usefulness in the selection of patients eligible for a Watch-and-Wait strategy is strongly suggested.

Diffusion weighted imaging improves diagnostic ability of MRI for determining complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

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The rate of pathological complete response (pCR) following NACRT was 14.7 %.

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Combination of morphology and DWI patterns was 89–96 % accurate in predicting pCR.

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Radiologists of varying experience agreed best with combined approach.

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Radiologists were more confident of their response using the combined approach.

Purpose

To assess the diagnostic performance, interobserver agreement and confidence level for determining response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) using morphology based MR-tumour regression grade (MR TRG), diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) patterns and their combination in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Methods

This was a retrospective study including patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with NACRT and subsequent surgery. Two independent radiologists blinded to the histopathology reviewed staging and restaging MRI. Diagnostic performance of morphology based MR-TRG, DWI patterns and their combination for determining complete (CR) and incomplete (IR) response was assessed with pathological response as the reference. Likert’s scale was used to assess the radiologist’s level of confidence. Interobserver agreement was determined using Kappa statistics.

Results

The study included 251 patients (mean age of 47.9+/-14 (range 19–86) years, M:F = 164:87). Rate of pathological CR was 14.7 % (n = 37). Pattern based interpretation of DWI and combined approach (DWI + T2-HR) had superior diagnostic performance than morphology based assessment alone with area under curve (AUC) for T2HR, DWI and their combination being 0.531, 0.887, 0.874 respectively for observer 1 and 0.558, 0.653, 0.678 respectively for observer 2, p < 0.001. Interobserver agreement was substantial (k = 0.688) for combined approach, moderate (k = 0.402) for DWI patterns and fair (k = 0.265) for T2 HR MRI with both observers exhibiting highest level of confidence for determining response with the combined approach.

Conclusion

Complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy can be determined with excellent accuracy, substantial interobserver agreement and high level of confidence by combined interpretation of DWI and T2 high resolution MRI.

Role of radiotherapy in the treatment of rectal cancer in older patients

Striking a balance between cancer treatment and patient-centred care is becoming ever more important in older patients with rectal cancer as the population is ageing. The treatment decision made by the modern multidisciplinary colorectal team will recommend pre-operative chemo-radiotherapy followed by surgery for advance rectal cancer and surgery alone for early rectal cancer, as the "standard of care" is surgery. However, an alternative non-surgical treatment option should be consider for older patients with rectal cancer as the surgical harm can far outweigh the potential benefits. There is published evidence that mortality is higher with increasing age. An alternative treatment option to surgery when patients are not suitable or refusing surgery is to offer them external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or chemo radiotherapy (EBCRT). A proportion of these patients can achieve a clinical complete response (cCR) which enable adoption of 'watch and wait' strategy to avoid surgery. However, a third of patients who achieved initial cCR can develop local regrowth within the first two years. This require salvage surgery which reduces their chance of organ preservation. Contact X-ray brachytherapy (CXB) or High Dose Rate Endo Brachy Therapy (HDREBT) boost following external beam radiotherapy can improve the initial cCR rate and reduce the risk of local regrowth. Those patients with persistent residual cancer or regrowth after brachytherapy boost following EBCRT or EBRT can have salvage surgery later without compromising their chance of cure. Therefore, patients should be fully aware of their treatment options and have 'a choice' when deciding and consenting their treatment.

Global variation in the long-term outcomes of ypT0 rectal cancers

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer mortality presents world-wide variation. In rectal cancers presenting a complete/nearly-complete tumor response (ypT0/ypTis) following neoadjuvant treatment, the features correlated to nodal metastases and relapses still need to be defined.

METHODS

An international cohort study enrolling ypT0/ypTis rectal cancers surgically treated from 2012 to 2017 was conducted. A propensity matching was used to balance nodal-positive and nodal-negative patients and statistical analyses were performed to investigate survivals, using a bootstrap model for internal validation. The features correlated with nodal metastasis were studied. Countries with participating centers were ranked using the World Bank (WBI), Human Development (HDI) and Global Gender Gap (GGG) indexes to compare survivals.

RESULTS

680 ypT0/ypTis from 52 European, Australian, Indian and American Institutions were analyzed. Mean follow-up was of 30.4 months. 96.5% were treated with total mesorectal excision, 7.2% were nodal-positive and 8.8% relapsed. Distal cancers (HR 0.71 95%CI: 0.56-0.91) and nodal metastasis and nodal metastasis (HR 3.85 95%CI:1.12-13.19) correlated with worse DFS, whereas a younger age was of borderline significance (HR 0.95 95%CI:0.91-0.99). The bootstrap analysis validated the model on 5000 repetitions. A short-course radiotherapy (OR 0.18 95%CI:0.09-0.37) correlated with the occurrence of nodal metastasis. Those countries classified in the low/medium-WBI, medium-HDI and lower-GGG ranks documented worse DFS curves (respectively p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001 and p 0.0002). However, the clinical stages were similar and patients from medium-HDI countries received more adjuvant chemotherapy than the others (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Sub-groups at risk for relapses and nodal metastasis were identified. A global variation exists also when benchmarking a rectal cancer complete regression.