Analysis of Trade-Offs Between Biodiversity, Carbon Farming and Agricultural Development in Northern Australia Reveals the Benefits of Strategic Planning

Poor compliance and exemptions facilitate ongoing deforestation

Many nations are struggling to reduce deforestation, despite having extensive environmental protection laws in place and commitments to international agreements that address the biodiversity and climate crises. We developed a novel framework to quantify the extent to which contemporary deforestation is being captured under national and subnational laws. We then applied this framework to northern Australia as a case study, a development and deforestation hotspot with ecosystems of global significance. First, deforestation may be compliant under all relevant legislation, either through assessment and approval or because of exemptions in the legislation. Second, deforestation may be compliant under at least one relevant law, but not all. Third, there may be no evidence of deforestation assessment or exemption from assessment, despite their apparent requirement, which could mean the deforestation is potentially noncompliant. Finally, deforestation may occur in an area or under circumstances that are beyond the intended scope of any relevant legislation. All deforestation that we analyzed was hypothetically covered by one or more laws. However, 65% of deforestation was potentially noncompliant with at least one law. Because multiple laws could be relevant to a given clearing event, the majority of clearing was still compliant with at least one law, but of these events, only a small proportion was explicitly approved (19%). The remaining were permitted under various exemptions. Of all the legislation we analyzed, most of the exempt clearing occurred under one subnational law and most potentially noncompliant clearing occurred under one national law. Our results showed that even a nation with a suite of mature environmental protection laws is falling well short of achieving international commitments regarding deforestation. Our framework can be used to pinpoint the pathways of policy change required for nations to align local laws with these international accords.

Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goals

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme ("Core area", "Buffer zone" and "Transition area") to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.

A systematic review of soil carbon management in Australia and the need for a social-ecological systems framework

Research efforts, on soil carbon management in agricultural lands, over the last two decades have sought to improve our understanding in order to increase soil productivity, soil carbon sequestration and to offset greenhouse gas emissions. This systematic review aims to identify the research gaps and future direction of soil carbon management in Australia. We explored and synthesized the use of social-ecological systems (SES) both in the global and Australian context, before making the first attempt to develop a conceptual SES framework for soil carbon management. Both quantitative and qualitative assessment of articles were used to identify and synthesise research trends, challenges and opportunities for improved soil carbon management. The results provide valuable insight into the SES components examined, the research gaps and the methodological challenges for research into soil carbon management conducted over the last two decades. The review revealed that research has predominately focused on the ecological component of soil carbon management in agricultural practices and has been conducted from a scientist's perspective. The sustainability of carbon-building soil management practices will require integration of social components into future research, particularly from a farmer perspective. The proposed conceptual SES framework is designed to identify and investigate SES components in soil carbon management in order to increase the process of offsetting greenhouse gas emissions as required by Sustainable Development Goals 2, 13 and 15.

Exploring agricultural development and climate adaptation in northern Australia under climatic risks

The agriculture sector in northern Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Climate change risks for future agricultural development include higher atmospheric temperature, increased rainfall variability and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves and fires. An uncertain future climate can affect agricultural production, efficient resource use and sustainable livelihoods. A balance needs to be achieved between resource use and livelihood security for sustainable agricultural development amid stressors such as climate change. This paper examines sustainable agricultural development in northern Australia using the environmental livelihood framework, a new approach that explores the relationships between water, energy and food resources and the livelihoods they sustain. The study shows that developments in the renewable energy sector, water infrastructure sector and advances in research and development for climate resilient infrastructure and climate resilient species are likely to improve agricultural production in northern Australia. Measures to attract and retain agricultural workforce is also key to maintaining a sustainable agricultural workforce in northern Australia. Adequate monitoring and evaluation of agricultural investments is important as future climatic impacts remain uncertain.