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Crowther C, Bonser SP, Schwanz LE. Plasticity and the adaptive evolution of switchlike reaction norms under environmental change. Evol Lett 2024; 8:64-75. [PMID: 38370546 PMCID: PMC10872057 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Phenotypic plasticity is often posited as an avenue for adaptation to environmental change, whereby environmental influences on phenotypes could shift trait expression toward new optimal values. Conversely, plastic trait expression may inhibit adaptation to environmental change by reducing selective pressure on ill-adapted traits. While plastic responses are often assumed to be linear, nonlinear phenotype-environment relationships are common, especially in thermally sensitive traits. Here we examine nonlinear plasticity in a trait with great ecological and evolutionary significance: sexual phenotype in species with environmental sex determination (ESD). In species with ESD, development switches between male and female at an environmental threshold (the inflection point). The inflection point is a key trait for adaptive responses to changing environments and should evolve toward the new optimum in order to maintain evolutionarily stable sex ratios. We used an individual-based theoretical model to investigate how two forms of plasticity in the ESD reaction norm-the nonlinear slope of the reaction norm and a linear shift in the inflection point-influence the evolution of the inflection point under climate warming. We found that steeper reaction norm slopes (high nonlinear plasticity) promoted evolution toward new optimal phenotypes (higher inflection points). In contrast, increased linear plasticity in the inflection point (shift) hindered adaptive evolution. Additionally, populations in moderate warming scenarios showed greater adaptive evolution of the inflection point compared with populations in extreme warming scenarios, suggesting that the proximity of existing phenotypes to new optimal phenotypes influences evolutionary outcomes. Unexpectedly, we found greater population persistence under high climate variability, due to the increased production of rare-sex individuals in unusually cold years. Our results demonstrate that different forms of phenotypic plasticity have crucially different effects on adaptive evolution. Plasticity that prevented sex ratio bias hindered the evolution of the inflection point, while plasticity that exacerbated sex ratio bias promoted adaptation to environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Crowther
- Department of Integrative Biology, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, United States
| | - Stephen P Bonser
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Lisa E Schwanz
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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2
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Jenouvrier S, Long MC, Coste CFD, Holland M, Gamelon M, Yoccoz NG, Sæther B. Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2236-2258. [PMID: 34931401 PMCID: PMC9303565 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology DepartmentWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods HoleMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Christophe F. D. Coste
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
| | - Marika Holland
- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie ÉvolutiveCNRSUnité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558Université Lyon 1Université de LyonVilleurbanneFrance
| | - Nigel G. Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine BiologyUiT The Arctic University of NorwayTromsøNorway
| | - Bernt‐Erik Sæther
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
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3
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Desharnais RA, Muchlinski AE, Ortiz JL, Alvidrez RI, Gatza BP. Timescale analyses of fluctuations in coexisting populations of a native and invasive tree squirrel. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e8779. [PMID: 35414892 PMCID: PMC8986518 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2021] [Revised: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Competition from invasive species is an increasing threat to biodiversity. In Southern California, the western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus, WGS) is facing competition from the fox squirrel (Sciurus niger, FS), an invasive congener.We used spectral methods to analyze 140 consecutive monthly censuses of WGS and FS within a 11.3 ha section of the California Botanic Garden. Variation in the numbers for both species and their synchrony was distributed across long timescales (>15 months).After filtering out annual changes, concurrent mean monthly temperatures from nearby Ontario Airport yielded a spectrum with a large semi-annual peak and significant spectral power at long timescales (>28 months). The cospectrum between WGS numbers and temperature revealed a significant negative correlation at long timescales (>35 months). Cospectra also revealed significant negative correlations with temperature at a six-month timescale for both WGS and FS.Simulations from a model of two competing species indicate that the risk of extinction for the weaker competitor increases quickly as environmental noise shifts from short to long timescales.We analyzed the timescales of fluctuations in detrended mean annual temperatures for the time period 1915-2014 from 1218 locations across the continental USA. In the last two decades, significant shifts from short to long timescales have occurred, from <3 years to 4-6 years.Our results indicate that (i) population fluctuations in co-occurring native and invasive tree squirrels are synchronous, occur over long timescales, and may be driven by fluctuations in environmental conditions; (ii) long timescale population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction in competing species, especially for the inferior competitor; and (iii) the timescales of interannual environmental fluctuations may be increasing from recent historical values. These results have broad implications for the impact of climate change on the maintenance of biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert A. Desharnais
- Department of Biological SciencesCalifornia State University at Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
| | - Alan E. Muchlinski
- Department of Biological SciencesCalifornia State University at Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
| | - Janel L. Ortiz
- Center for Excellence in Mathematics and Science TeachingCalifornia State Polytechnic University at PomonaPomonaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Ruby I. Alvidrez
- Department of Biological SciencesCalifornia State University at Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
| | - Brian P. Gatza
- Department of Biological SciencesCalifornia State University at Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
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4
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Romero‐Mujalli D, Rochow M, Kahl S, Paraskevopoulou S, Folkertsma R, Jeltsch F, Tiedemann R. Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:6341-6357. [PMID: 34141222 PMCID: PMC8207414 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2020] [Revised: 03/03/2021] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to-one genotype-phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to-one genotype-phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation-compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism-even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Romero‐Mujalli
- Evolutionary Biology/Systematic ZoologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
- Plant Ecology and Nature ConservationUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
- Foundation, Zoology InstituteUniversity of Veterinary Medicine HannoverHannoverGermany
| | - Markus Rochow
- Evolutionary Biology/Systematic ZoologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Sandra Kahl
- Berlin‐Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB)BerlinGermany
- Biodiversity Research/Systematic BotanyInstitute of Biochemistry und BiologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Sofia Paraskevopoulou
- Evolutionary Biology/Systematic ZoologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
- Faculty of Life SciencesSchool of ZoologyTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
| | - Remco Folkertsma
- Evolutionary Adaptive GenomicsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Plant Ecology and Nature ConservationUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
- Berlin‐Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB)BerlinGermany
| | - Ralph Tiedemann
- Evolutionary Biology/Systematic ZoologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
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5
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Ramachandran D, Lindo Z, Meehan ML. Feeding rate and efficiency in an apex soil predator exposed to short-term temperature changes. Basic Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2020.11.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
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6
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Pilowsky JA, Dahlgren JP. Incorporating the temporal autocorrelation of demographic rates into structured population models. OIKOS 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.06438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Julia A. Pilowsky
- Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Univ. of Adelaide, Benham Laboratories North Terrace Campus AU‐5005 Adelaide South Australia Australia
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Univ. of Copenhagen Universitetsparken 15 DK‐2100 7 Copenhagen Denmark
| | - Johan P. Dahlgren
- Dept of Biology, SDU Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, Univ. of Southern Denmark Odense Denmark
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7
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Affiliation(s)
- Luděk Berec
- Centre for Mathematical Biology, Inst. of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Univ. of South Bohemia Branišovská 1760 CZ‐37005 České Budějovice Czech Republic
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Biology Centre, Inst. of Entomology, Dept of Ecology Branišoská 31 CZ‐37005 České Budějovice Czech Republic
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8
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Bathiany S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, Lenton TM. Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2018; 4:eaar5809. [PMID: 29732409 PMCID: PMC5931768 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar5809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Accepted: 03/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C-1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
- Corresponding author.
| | - Vasilis Dakos
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution, UMR 5554, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, CC 065, Place Eugéne Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Timothy M. Lenton
- Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
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9
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Eager EA, Pilson D, Alexander HM, Tenhumberg B. Assessing the Influence of Temporal Autocorrelations on the Population Dynamics of a Disturbance Specialist Plant Population in a Random Environment. Am Nat 2017; 190:570-583. [DOI: 10.1086/692911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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10
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Vacchiano G, Hacket-Pain A, Turco M, Motta R, Maringer J, Conedera M, Drobyshev I, Ascoli D. Spatial patterns and broad-scale weather cues of beech mast seeding in Europe. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2017; 215:595-608. [PMID: 28631320 DOI: 10.1111/nph.14600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2016] [Accepted: 04/09/2017] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown . Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations. Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time. These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Vacchiano
- DISAFA, University of Turin, Largo Braccini 2, 10095, Grugliasco (TO), Italy
| | - Andrew Hacket-Pain
- St Catherine's College, Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UJ, UK
- Fitzwilliam College, Storeys Way, Cambridge, CB3 0DG, UK
| | - Marco Turco
- Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 647, 08028, Barcelona, Spain
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), c/Jordi Girona 29, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Renzo Motta
- DISAFA, University of Turin, Largo Braccini 2, 10095, Grugliasco (TO), Italy
| | - Janet Maringer
- Institute for Landscape Planning and Ecology, University of Stuttgart, Keplerstr. 11, 70174, Stuttgart, Germany
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research WSL, a Ramél 18, CH-6953, Cadenazzo, Switzerland
| | - Marco Conedera
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research WSL, a Ramél 18, CH-6953, Cadenazzo, Switzerland
| | - Igor Drobyshev
- Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 49, 230 53, Alnarp, Sweden
- Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en aménagement forestier durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l'Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada
| | - Davide Ascoli
- Dipartimento di Agraria, University of Naples Federico II, via Università 100, 80055, Portici (NA), Italy
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11
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Malanson GP. Interactions and constraints in model species response to environmental heteroscedasticity. J Theor Biol 2017; 419:343-349. [PMID: 28223173 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.02.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2016] [Revised: 02/09/2017] [Accepted: 02/16/2017] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Increasing environmental variability could exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecological processes such as population dynamics, or positive and negative effects (favorable or unfavorable weather) could balance. Such a balance could depend on constraints of the processes. Biological and spatial constraints are represented in a spatially explicit individual based simulation of an ecotone reduced to two species on a single environmental gradient. The effects of climate amelioration are simulated from a plant's-eye-view by increasing the establishment and decreasing the mortality rates. Variability is introduced as a random multiplier of these rates, and the strength of the variation is increased through the period of climate change. The biological constraints limit change in the rates, and the extent of the simulation grid represents a spatial constraint. A small increase in environmental variation, multiplied through time with climate change, increases extinction rates. The biological and spatial constraints have little effect on the response of populations. Instead, competition, based on the form of the species response functions to the environmental gradient at the point where they intersect, determines differences in population responses. Positive and negative variations in the environment do not balance because the responses are hierarchical and asymmetric. Differences persist because extinction during a negative anomaly cannot be reversed by a later positive one.
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Affiliation(s)
- George P Malanson
- Department of Geographical & Sustainability Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA.
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12
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Gudmundson S, Eklöf A, Wennergren U. Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 2016. [PMID: 26224705 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species-species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Gudmundson
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
| | - Anna Eklöf
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
| | - Uno Wennergren
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
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13
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Eager EA, Rebarber R, Tenhumberg B. Modeling and Analysis of a Density-Dependent Stochastic Integral Projection Model for a Disturbance Specialist Plant and Its Seed Bank. Bull Math Biol 2014; 76:1809-34. [DOI: 10.1007/s11538-014-9978-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2013] [Accepted: 05/09/2014] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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14
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La Sorte FA, Butchart SHM, Jetz W, Böhning-Gaese K. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change. PLoS One 2014; 9:e98361. [PMID: 24852009 PMCID: PMC4031198 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2014] [Accepted: 05/01/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank A. La Sorte
- Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
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15
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Bocedi G, Palmer SC, Pe'er G, Heikkinen RK, Matsinos YG, Watts K, Travis JM. RangeShifter: a platform for modelling spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Stephen C.F. Palmer
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Guy Pe'er
- Department of Conservation Biology; UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Permoserstr. 15 Leipzig 04318 Germany
| | - Risto K. Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute; Natural Environment Centre; P.O. Box 140 Helsinki FI-00251 Finland
| | - Yiannis G. Matsinos
- Department of Environment; Biodiversity Conservation Laboratory; University of the Aegean; Mytilini 81100 Greece
| | - Kevin Watts
- Forest Research; Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham Surrey GU10 4LH UK
| | - Justin M.J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
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16
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Henry RC, Bocedi G, Dytham C, Travis JMJ. Inter-annual variability influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of range-shifting. PeerJ 2014; 2:e228. [PMID: 24498572 PMCID: PMC3912520 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2013] [Accepted: 11/30/2013] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the eco-evolutionary dynamics of species under rapid climate change is vital for both accurate forecasting of biodiversity responses and for developing effective management strategies. Using an individual-based model we demonstrate that the presence and form (colour) of inter-annual variability in environmental conditions can impact the evolution of dispersal during range shifts. Under stable climate, temporal variability typically results in higher dispersal. However, at expanding margins, inter-annual variability actually inhibits the evolution of higher emigration propensities by disrupting the spatial sorting and natural selection processes. These results emphasize the need for future theoretical studies, as well as predictive modelling, to account for the potential impacts of inter-annual variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roslyn C Henry
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen , UK
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen , UK
| | - Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology, University of York , Heslington, York , UK
| | - Justin M J Travis
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen , UK
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17
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Bocedi G, Atkins KE, Liao J, Henry RC, Travis JMJ, Hellmann JJ. Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2013; 1297:83-97. [PMID: 23905876 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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