Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West African protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections

Functional characteristics and habitat suitability of threatened birds in northeastern China

Northeast China, rich in natural resources and diverse biodiversity, boasts a unique habitat for threatened bird species due to its remote location and perennial cold climate. An analysis assessed the adaptability of these species using data on their geographic distribution and functional traits collected through database queries. The results revealed that threatened bird species share similar functional traits and a stronger phylogenetic signal (Blomberg mean K = 0.39) compared to common species. The Biomod2 model analyzed potentially suitable ranges and environmental drivers under current and future climate scenarios, showing a pattern of larger suitable areas in southern regions and smaller suitable areas in the north. The most critically threatened species faced greater geographical constraints (0.989), with mean annual temperature being a key influence. Altitude and water system distribution were also key factors impacting the distribution of other threatened bird species. Simulated projections under different climate scenarios (RCP 45 and 85) indicated varying degrees of expansion in the suitable range for these species. This research sheds light on the functional traits and distribution of threatened bird species in Northeast China, providing a scientific foundation for future conservation and management efforts.

Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change

Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.

A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N = 426 species) under a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Generalized linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species' ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.

Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region

For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category “Least Concern” to “Critically Endangered” or “Extinct” in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.

Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves

Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.

A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals

As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity.

Distinct isotopic signatures reveal effect of ecoregion on small mammals of Ghana

Species reside in dynamic environments, simultaneously experiencing variations in climatic conditions, habitat availability and quality, interspecific interactions, and anthropogenic pressures. We investigated variation in foraging ecology of the small mammal community between land-use classifications (i.e., protected national parks and unprotected lands abutting them) in Mole National Park (MNP) and Digya National Park (DNP), representing distinct ecoregions of Ghana. In 5,064 trap nights, we sampled 153 individuals of 23 species within the 2 national parks and adjacent lands outside protected boundaries to describe variation in community composition. We also used δ13 C and δ15 N isotopic ratios from fresh feces to determine main effects and interactions between land use and ecoregion on trophic structure in species and communities of small mammals. Small mammals exhibited distinct community assemblages between ecoregions (i.e., national parks): Gerbilliscus guineae, Hybomys trivirgatus, Malacomys edwardsi, Lemniscomys bellieri, L. zebra, and Taterillus gracilis were only captured in the dry savanna ecoregion of MNP. Additionally, isotopic signatures for nitrogen were significantly lower in MNP (2.83 ± 0.17‰) compared to DNP (4.97 ± 0.33‰), indicating that small mammals occupied different trophic levels between ecoregions. The most common species, Praomys daltoni exhibited variation in isotopic signatures between ecoregions and land use, with higher δ15 N found within MNP boundaries. We found no distinction in δ13 C at the community or species level within or across protected areas. Ultimately, understanding shifts in the ecology of species can inform predictions about community structure and ecosystem function under future environmental and anthropogenic scenarios.

An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm

We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earth's 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature-a companion to the Paris Climate Deal-to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.