Isolation by environment and its consequences for range shifts with global change: Landscape genomics of the invasive plant common tansy

Invasive species are a growing global economic and ecological problem. However, it is not well understood how environmental factors mediate invasive range expansion. In this study, we investigated the recent and rapid range expansion of common tansy across environmental gradients in Minnesota, USA. We densely sampled individuals across the expanding range and performed reduced representation sequencing to generate a dataset of 3071 polymorphic loci for 176 individuals. We used non-spatial and spatially explicit analyses to determine the relative influences of geographic distance and environmental variation on patterns of genomic variation. We found no evidence for isolation by distance but strong evidence for isolation by environment, indicating that environmental factors may have modulated patterns of range expansion. Land use classification and soils were particularly important variables related to population structure although they operated on different spatial scales; land use classification was related to broad-scale patterns and soils were related to fine-scale patterns. All analyses indicated a distinctive genetic cluster in the most recently invaded portion of the range. Individuals from the far northwestern range margin were separated from the remainder of the range by reduced migration, which was associated with environmental resistance. This portion of the range was invaded primarily in the last 15 years. Ecological niche models also indicated that this cluster was associated with the expansion of the niche. While invasion is often assumed to be primarily influenced by dispersal limitation, our results suggest that ongoing invasion and range shifts with climate change may be strongly affected by environmental heterogeneity.

Study on the change of global ecological distribution of Nicotiana tabacum L. based on MaxEnt model

Nicotiana tabacum L. (tobacco) has extremely high economic value, medicinal value, scientific research value and some other uses. Though it has been widely cultivated throughout the world, classification and change of its suitable habitats is not that clear, especially in the context of global warming. In order to achieve rational cultivation and sustainable development of tobacco, current (average from 1970-2000) and future (2070, average from 2061-2080) potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were forecasted with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS platform based on 854 occurrence data and 22 environmental factors in this study. The results revealed that mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), annual precipitation (bio12), solar radiation in September (Srad9), and clay content (CLAY) were the four decisive environment variables for the distribution of Nicotiana tabacum L. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were mainly distributed in south-central Europe, south-central North America, most parts of South America, central Africa, south and southeast Asia, and southeast coast of Australia, and only 13.7% of these areas were highly suitable. By the year 2070, suitable habitats under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios would all increase with the largest increase found under SSP3-7.0 scenario, while suitable habitats would reduce under SSP2-4.5 climate scenario. Globally, the center of mass of suitable habitats would migrate to southeast to varying degrees within Libya under four different climate scenarios. The emergence of new habitats and the disappearance of old habitats would all occur simultaneously under each climate scenario, and the specific changes in each area, combined with the prediction results under current climate conditions, will provide an important reference for the adjustment of agronomic practices and rational cultivation of Nicotiana tabacum L. both currently and in the future.

Risk of invasive waterfowl interaction with poultry production: Understanding potential for avian pathogen transmission via species distribution models

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have devastated poultry production across the United States, with more than 77 million birds culled in 2022-2024 alone. Wild waterfowl, including various invasive species, host numerous pathogens, including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), and have been implicated as catalysts of disease outbreaks among native fauna and domestic birds. In major poultry-producing states like Arkansas, USA, where the poultry sector is responsible for significant economic activity (>$4 billion USD in 2022), understanding the risk of invasive waterfowl interactions with domestic poultry is critical. Here, we assessed the risk of invasive waterfowl-poultry interaction in Arkansas by comparing the density of poultry production sites (chicken houses) to areas of high habitat suitability for two invasive waterfowl species, (Egyptian Goose [Alopochen aegyptiaca] and Mute Swan [Cygnus olor]), known to host significant pathogens, including avian influenza viruses. The percentage of urban land cover was the most important habitat characteristic for both invasive waterfowl species. At the 95% confidence interval, chicken house densities in areas highly suitable for both species (Egyptian Goose = 0.91 ± 0.11 chicken houses/km2; Mute Swan = 0.61 ± 0.03 chicken houses/km2) were three to five times higher than chicken house densities across the state (0.17 ± 0.01 chicken houses/km2). We show that northwestern and western Arkansas, both areas of high importance for poultry production, are also at high risk of invasive waterfowl presence. Our results suggest that targeted monitoring efforts for waterfowl-poultry contact in these areas could help mitigate the risk of avian pathogen exposure in Arkansas and similar regions with high poultry production.

The Andes as a semi-permeable geographical barrier: Genetic connectivity between structured populations in a widespread spider

Geographical barriers like mountain ranges impede genetic exchange among populations, promoting diversification. The effectiveness of these barriers in limiting gene flow varies between lineages due to each species' dispersal modes and capacities. Our understanding of how the Andes orogeny contributes to species diversification comes from well-studied vertebrates and a few arthropods and plants, neglecting organisms unable to fly or walk long distances. Some arachnids, such as Gasteracantha cancriformis, have been hypothesized to disperse long distances via ballooning (i.e. using their silk to interact with the wind). Yet, we do not know how the environment and geography shape its genetic diversity. Therefore, we tested whether the Andes contributed to the diversification of G. cancriformis acting as an absolute or semi-permeable barrier to genetic connectivity between populations of this spider at opposite sides of the mountain range. We sampled thousands of loci across the distribution of the species and implemented population genetics, phylogenetic, and landscape genetic analyses. We identified two genetically distinct groups structured by the Central Andes, and a third less structured group in the Northern Andes that shares ancestry with the previous two. This structure is largely explained by the altitude along the Andes, which decreases in some regions, possibly facilitating cross-Andean dispersal and gene flow. Our findings support that altitude in the Andes plays a major role in structuring populations in South America, but the strength of this barrier can be overcome by organisms with long-distance dispersal modes together with altitudinal depressions.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Predicting the spatial expansion of an animal population with presence-only data

Predictive models can improve the efficiency of wildlife management by guiding actions at the local, landscape and regional scales. In recent decades, a vast range of modelling techniques have been developed to predict species distributions and patterns of population spread. However, data limitations often constrain the precision and biological realism of models, which make them less useful for supporting decision-making. Complex models can also be challenging to evaluate, and the results are often difficult to interpret for wildlife management practitioners. There is therefore a need to develop techniques that are appropriately robust, but also accessible to a range of end users. We developed a hybrid species distribution model that utilises commonly available presence-only distribution data and minimal demographic information to predict the spread of roe deer (Capreolus caprelous) in Great Britain. We take a novel approach to representing the environment in the model by constraining the size of habitat patches to the home-range area of an individual. Population dynamics are then simplified to a set of generic rules describing patch occupancy. The model is constructed and evaluated using data from a populated region (England and Scotland) and applied to predict regional-scale patterns of spread in a novel region (Wales). It is used to forecast the relative timing of colonisation events and identify important areas for targeted surveillance and management. The study demonstrates the utility of presence-only data for predicting the spread of animal species and describes a method of reducing model complexity while retaining important environmental detail and biological realism. Our modelling approach provides a much-needed opportunity for users without specialist expertise in computer coding to leverage limited data and make robust, easily interpretable predictions of spread to inform proactive population management.

Presence of the Eucalyptus snout beetle in Ecuador and potential invasion risk in South America

Eucalyptus snout beetles are a complex of at least eight cryptic species (Curculionidae: Gonipterus scutellatus complex), native to mainland Australia and Tasmania, that defoliate Eucalyptus trees and are considered important pests. Since the 19th century, three species of the complex have been introduced to other continents. Here, we document the presence of Eucalyptus snout beetles in Ecuador. We used DNA data for species identification and unambiguously demonstrated that the Ecuadorian specimens belong to the species Gonipterus platensis, which has low genetic diversity compared with other species in the complex. We analyzed G. platensis' potential distribution in South America with ecological niche models and found several areas of high to intermediate climatic suitability, even in countries where the pest has not been registered, like Peru and Bolivia. Accurate identification of species in the G. scutellatus complex and understanding of their potential distribution are essential tools for improved management and prevention tactics.

Evaluating niche changes during invasion with seasonal models in Capsella bursa-pastoris

PREMISE

Researchers often use ecological niche models to predict where species might establish and persist under future or novel climate conditions. However, these predictive methods assume species have stable niches across time and space. Furthermore, ignoring the time of occurrence data can obscure important information about species reproduction and ultimately fitness. Here, we assess compare ecological niche models generated from full-year averages to seasonal models.

METHODS

In this study, we generate full-year and monthly ecological niche models for Capsella bursa-pastoris in Europe and North America to see if we can detect changes in the seasonal niche of the species after long-distance dispersal.

RESULTS

We find full-year ecological niche models have low transferability across continents and there are continental differences in the climate conditions that influence the distribution of C. bursa-pastoris. Monthly models have greater predictive accuracy than full-year models in cooler seasons, but no monthly models can predict North American summer occurrences very well.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative predictive ability of European monthly models compared to North American monthly models suggests a change in the seasonal timing between the native range to the non-native range. These results highlight the utility of ecological niche models at finer temporal scales in predicting species distributions and unmasking subtle patterns of evolution.

Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) substantially affect the native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health worldwide. Ambrosia (ragweed) species, which are major IAPs globally, produce a significant impact on human health and the natural environment. In particular, invasion of A. artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, and A. trifida in non-native continents is more extensive and severe than that of other species. Here, we used biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species occurrence data to predict the potential geographical distribution, overlapping geographical distribution areas, and the ecological niche dynamics of these three ragweeds and further explored the environmental variables shaping the observed patterns to assess the impact of these IAPs on the natural environment and public health. The ecological niche has shifted in the invasive area compared with that in the native area, which increased the invasion risk of three Ambrosia species during the invasion process in the world. The potential geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species are primarily distributed in Asia, North America, and Europe, and are expected to increase under four representative concentration pathways in the 2050s. The centers of potential geographical distributions of the three Ambrosia species showed a tendency to shift poleward from the current time to the 2050s. Bioclimatic variables and the human influence index were more significant in shaping these patterns than other factors. In brief, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species. Ecomanagement and cross-country management strategies are warranted to mitigate the future effects of the expansion of these ragweed species worldwide in the Anthropocene on the natural environment and public health.

Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion. Ageratina adenophora-one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world-poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.

Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China

Climate change is an important driver of species distribution and biodiversity. Understanding the response of plants to climate change is helpful to understand species differentiation and formulate conservation strategies. The genus Polyspora (Theaceae) has an ancient origin and is widely distributed in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. Studies on the impacts of climate change on species geographical distribution of Chinese Polyspora can provide an important reference for exploring the responses of plant groups in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests with geological events and climate change in China. Based on the environmental variables, distribution records, and chloroplast genomes, we modeled the potential distribution of Chinese Polyspora in the Last Glacial Maximum, middle Holocene, current, and future by using MaxEnt-ArcGIS model and molecular phylogenetic method. The changes in the species distribution area, centroid shift, and ecological niche in each periods were analyzed to speculate the response modes of Chinese Polyspora to climate change in different periods. The most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Polyspora was the precipitation of the driest month, ranging from 13 to 25 mm for the highly suitable habitats. At present, highly suitable distribution areas of Polyspora were mainly located in the south of 25°N, and had species-specificity. The main glacial refugia of the Chinese Polyspora might be located in the Ailao, Gaoligong, and Dawei Mountains of Yunnan Province. Jinping County, Pingbian County, and the Maguan County at the border of China and Vietnam might be the species differentiation center of the Chinese Polyspora. Moderate climate warming in the future would be beneficial to the survival of P. axillaris, P. chrysandra, and P. speciosa. However, climate warming under different shared socio-economic pathways would reduce the suitable habitats of P. hainanensis and P. longicarpa.

Assessing the Dynamics of Plant Species Invasion in Eastern-Mediterranean Coastal Dunes Using Cellular Automata Modeling and Satellite Time-Series Analyses

Biological invasion is a major contributor to local and global biodiversity loss, in particular in dune ecosystems. In this study we evaluated current and future cover expansion of the invasive plant species, Heterotheca subaxillaris, and Acacia saligna, in the Mediterranean coastal plain of Israel. This is the first effort to quantify current surface cover of the focal species in this area. We reconstructed plant cover for 1990–2020 using Landsat time series and modeled future potential expansion using cellular automata (CA) modeling. The overall accuracy of the results varied in the range 85–95% and the simulated plant growth using CA varied between 74% and 84%, for A. saligna and H. subaxillaris, respectively. The surface area covered by H. subaxillaris in 2020, 45 years since its introduction, was approximately 81 km2. Acacia saligna covered an area of 74.6 km2, while the vacant area available for potential spread of these two species was 630 km2. Heterotheca subaxillaris showed a mean expansion rate of 107% per decade from 2000 to 2020, while the mean expansion rate of A. saligna was lower, ranging between 48% and 54% within the same time period. Furthermore, based on the plant expansion model simulation we estimated that A. saligna and H. subaxillaris will continue to spread by 60% per decade, on average, from 2020 to 2070, with a maximum growth rate of 80% per decade during 2040–2050. According to future expansion projections, the species will cover all open vacant areas by 2070 (95% of the total vacant area) and most areas will be shared by both species.

Limited Range-Filling Among Endemic Forest Herbs of Eastern North America and Its Implications for Conservation With Climate Change

Biodiversity hotspots host a high diversity of narrowly distributed endemic species, which are increasingly threatened by climate change. In eastern North America, the highest concentration of plant diversity and endemism occurs in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM). It has been hypothesized that this region served as a refugium during Pleistocene glacial cycles and that postglacial migration northward was dispersal limited. We tested this hypothesis using species distribution models for eight forest herb species. We also quantified the extent to which the geography of suitable habitat shifted away from the current range with climate change. We developed species distribution models for four forest herb species endemic to the SAM and four that co-occur in the same SAM habitats but have broader ranges. For widespread species, we built models using (1) all occurrences and (2) only those that overlap the SAM hotspot in order to evaluate the extent of Hutchinsonian shortfalls and the potential for models to predict suitable habitat beyond the SAM. We evaluated the extent to which predicted climatically suitable areas are projected to shift away from their current ranges under future climate change. We detected unoccupied but suitable habitat in regions up to 1,100 km north of the endemic species’ ranges. Endemic ranges are disjunct from suitable northern areas due to a ∼100–150 km gap of unsuitable habitat. Under future climate change, models predicted severe reductions in suitable habitat within current endemic ranges. For non-endemic species, we found similar overall patterns and gap of unsuitability in the same geographic location. Our results suggest a history of dispersal limitation following the last glacial maximum along with an environmental barrier to northward migration. Conservation of endemic species would likely require intervention and assisted migration to suitable habitat in northern New England and Canada.

Environmental Drivers of Diversification and Hybridization in Neotropical Butterflies

Studying how the environment shapes current biodiversity patterns in species rich regions is a fundamental issue in biogeography, ecology, and conservation. However, in the Neotropics, the study of the forces driving species distribution and richness, is mostly based on vertebrates and plants. In this study, we used 54,392 georeferenced records for 46 species and 1,012 georeferenced records for 38 interspecific hybrids of the Neotropical Heliconius butterflies to investigate the role of the environment in shaping their distribution and richness, as well as their geographic patterns of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism. We also evaluated whether niche similarity promotes hybridization in Heliconius. We found that these insects display five general distribution patterns mostly explained by precipitation and isothermality, and to a lesser extent, by altitude. Interestingly, altitude plays a major role as a predictor of species richness and phylogenetic diversity, while precipitation explains patterns of phylogenetic endemism. We did not find evidence supporting the role of the environment in facilitating hybridization because hybridizing species do not necessarily share the same climatic niche despite some of them having largely overlapping geographic distributions. Overall, we confirmed that, as in other organisms, high annual temperature, a constant supply of water, and spatio-topographic complexity are the main predictors of diversity in Heliconius. However, future studies at large scale need to investigate the effect of microclimate variables and ecological interactions.