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Veenhof RJ, Coleman MA, Champion C, Dworjanyn SA, Venhuizen R, Kearns L, Marzinelli EM, Pettersen AK. Novel high-throughput oxygen saturation measurements for quantifying the physiological performance of macroalgal early life stages. JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY 2024. [PMID: 39105657 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.13489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/14/2024] [Accepted: 07/11/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024]
Abstract
Understanding how macroalgal forests will respond to environmental change is critical for predicting future impacts on coastal ecosystems. Although measures of adult macroalgae physiological responses to environmental stress are advancing, measures of early life-stage physiology are rare, in part due to the methodological difficulties associated with their small size. Here we tested a novel, high-throughput method (rate of oxygen consumption and production;V ̇ O 2 $$ \dot{V}{\mathrm{O}}_2 $$ ) via a sensor dish reader microplate system to rapidly measure physiological rates of the early life stages of three habitat-forming macroalgae, the kelp Ecklonia radiata and the fucoids Hormosira banksii and Phyllospora comosa. We measured the rate of O2 consumption (respiration) and O2 production (net primary production) to then calculate gross primary production (GPP) under temperatures representing their natural thermal range. TheV ̇ O 2 $$ \dot{V}{\mathrm{O}}_2 $$ microplate system was suitable for rapidly measuring physiological rates over a temperature gradient to establish thermal performance curves for all species. TheV ̇ O 2 $$ \dot{V}{\mathrm{O}}_2 $$ microplate system proved efficient for measures of early life stages of macroalgae ranging in size from approximately 50 μm up to 150 mm. This method has the potential for measuring responses of early life stages across a range of environmental factors, species, populations, and developmental stages, vastly increasing the speed, precision, and efficacy of macroalgal physiological measures under future ocean change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- R J Veenhof
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - M A Coleman
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
- Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - C Champion
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
- Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - S A Dworjanyn
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - R Venhuizen
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - L Kearns
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - E M Marzinelli
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
- Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, New South Wales, Australia
| | - A K Pettersen
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, New South Wales, Australia
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Veenhof RJ, Champion C, Dworjanyn SA, Schwoerbel J, Visch W, Coleman MA. Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change. ANNALS OF BOTANY 2024; 133:153-168. [PMID: 37665952 PMCID: PMC10921825 DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcad132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes. METHODS We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models. KEY RESULTS All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1). CONCLUSIONS Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.
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Affiliation(s)
- R J Veenhof
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
| | - C Champion
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
- Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
| | - S A Dworjanyn
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
| | - J Schwoerbel
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - W Visch
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - M A Coleman
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
- Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
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Gonzalez‐Aragon D, Rivadeneira MM, Lara C, Torres FI, Vásquez JA, Broitman BR. A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e10901. [PMID: 38435006 PMCID: PMC10905252 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08° S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Gonzalez‐Aragon
- Doctorado en Ciencias, mención en Biodiversidad y Biorecursos, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Núcleo Milenio UPWELL
| | - Marcelo M. Rivadeneira
- Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas ÁridasCoquimboChile
- Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del MarUniversidad Católica del NorteCoquimboChile
| | - Carlos Lara
- Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y SustentabilidadUniversidad Bernardo O'HigginsSantiagoChile
| | - Felipe I. Torres
- Doctorado en Ciencias, mención en Biodiversidad y Biorecursos, Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónConcepcionChile
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Data Observatory Foundation, ANID Technology Center No. DO210001SantiagoChile
| | - Julio A. Vásquez
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del MarUniversidad Católica del NorteCoquimboChile
- Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas y Otros Recursos Biológicos (CIDTA)CoquimboChile
| | - Bernardo R. Broitman
- Instituto Milenio en Socio‐Ecología Costera (SECOS)SantiagoChile
- Núcleo Milenio UPWELL
- Facultad de Artes LiberalesUniversidad Adolfo IbañezViña Del MarChile
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Schwoerbel J, Visch W, Wright JT, Bellgrove A, Sanderson JC, Hurd CL. Thermal performance curves identify seasonal and site-specific variation in the development of Ecklonia radiata (Phaeophyceae) gametophytes and sporophytes. JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY 2024; 60:83-101. [PMID: 37897074 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.13406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
Rapid ocean warming is affecting kelp forests globally. While the sporophyte life stage has been well studied for many species, the microscopic life stages of laminarian kelps have been understudied, particularly regarding spatial and temporal variations in thermal tolerance and their interaction. We investigated the thermal tolerance of growth, survival, development, and fertilization of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes, derived from zoospores sampled from two sites in Tasmania, Australia, throughout a year, over a temperature gradient (3-30°C). For growth we found a relatively stable thermal optimum at ~20.5°C and stable thermal maxima (25.3-27.7°C). The magnitude of growth was highly variable and depended on season and site, with no consistent spatial pattern for growth and gametophyte size. Survival also had a relatively stable thermal optimum of ~17°C, 3°C below the optimum for growth. Gametophytes grew to single cells between 5 and 25°C, but sporophytes were only observed between 10 and 20°C, indicating reproductive failure outside this range. The results reveal complex effects of source population and season of collection on gametophyte performance in E. radiata, with implications when comparing results from material collected at different localities and times. In Tasmania, gametophytes grow considerably below the estimated thermal maxima and thermal optima that are currently only reached during summer heatwaves, whereas optima for survival (~17°C) are frequently reached and surpassed during heatwaves, which may affect the persistence and recruitment of E. radiata in a warmer climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakop Schwoerbel
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Wouter Visch
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Jeffrey T Wright
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Alecia Bellgrove
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Marine Science, Deakin University, Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Catriona L Hurd
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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Veenhof RJ, Coleman MA, Champion C, Dworjanyn SA. Urchin grazing of kelp gametophytes in warming oceans. JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY 2023; 59:838-855. [PMID: 37432133 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.13364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Revised: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023]
Abstract
Sea urchins can cause extensive damage to kelp forests, and their overgrazing can create extensive barren areas, leading to a loss of biodiversity. Barrens may persist when the recruitment of kelp, which occurs through the microscopic haploid gametophyte stage, is suppressed. However, the ecology of kelp gametophytes is poorly understood, and here we investigate if grazing by juvenile urchins on kelp gametophytes can suppress kelp recruitment and if this is exacerbated by climate change. We compared grazing of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes by two species of juvenile urchins, the tropical Tripneustes gratilla and the temperate Centrostephanus rodgersii, at winter (19°C), summer (23°C), and ocean warming (26°C) temperatures for the low-latitude range edge of E. radiata, which is vulnerable to ocean warming. We examined the rate of recovery of gametophytes following grazing and determined whether they survived and formed sporophytes after ingestion by sea urchins. Both T. gratilla and C. rodgersii grazed E. radiata gametophytes, reducing their abundance compared to no grazing controls. Surprisingly, temperature did not influence grazing rates, but gametophytes did not recover from grazing in the ocean warming (26°C) treatment. Gametophytes survived ingestion by both species of sea urchin and formed sporophytes after ingestion by T. gratilla, but not C. rodgersii. These results suggest complex grazer-gametophyte interactions, in which both negative (reduced abundance and poor recovery with warming) and positive (facilitated recruitment) effects are possible. Small grazers may play a more important role in kelp ecosystem function than previously thought and should be considered in our understanding of alternate stable states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reina J Veenhof
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Melinda A Coleman
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Curtis Champion
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Symon A Dworjanyn
- National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia
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Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia. DIVERSITY 2023. [DOI: 10.3390/d15030419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
The urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii is expanding its range southward in eastern Australia, which has been associated with negative ecological impacts, including shifts from kelp forests to barrens. However, limited analyses are available that examine the factors influencing its abundance and distribution across the entirety of this range. Here, we utilise data from 13,085 underwater visual census surveys, from 1992 to 2022, to develop an urchin density model for C. rodgersii across its historical and extending geographical range. We apply this model to examine whether C. rodgersii densities are increasing and to project future urchin densities by 2100 under IPCC climate scenario RCP 8.5. Significant increases in C. rodgersii densities were detected in data for the South-east marine region of Australia, which encompasses Tasmania, Victoria, and the far south coast of New South Wales (NSW) over the last 30 years. In the Temperate East marine region (encompassing Queensland and NSW waters to 36.6° S), however, no significant increases in densities were observed. Future projections indicated that further substantial increases in C. rodgersii densities are likely to occur in the South-east marine region and substantial reductions in most of the Temperate East marine region by 2100. Importantly, results indicate that current and future changes to C. rodgersii densities in Australia vary among marine regions. Therefore, the future ecological impacts of urchins on temperate ecosystems, including the formation of barrens, will also vary among regions. Consequently, management actions will need to differ among these regions, with the South-east marine region requiring mitigation of the impacts of increasing C. rodgersii densities, whereas the Temperate East marine region may need actions to preserve declining C. rodgersii populations.
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Harris RJ, Bryant C, Coleman MA, Leigh A, Briceño VF, Arnold PA, Nicotra AB. A novel and high-throughput approach to assess photosynthetic thermal tolerance of kelp using chlorophyll α fluorometry. JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY 2023; 59:179-192. [PMID: 36345151 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.13296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Foundation seaweed species are experiencing widespread declines and localized extinctions due to increased instability of sea surface temperature. Characterizing temperature thresholds are useful for predicting patterns of change and identifying species most vulnerable to extremes. Existing methods for characterizing seaweed thermal tolerance produce diverse metrics and are often time-consuming, making comparisons between species and techniques difficult, hindering insight into global patterns of change. Using three kelp species, we adapted a high-throughput method - previously used in terrestrial plant thermal biology - for use on kelps. This method employs temperature-dependent fluorescence (T-F0 ) curves under heating or cooling regimes to determine the critical temperature (Tcrit ) of photosystem II (PSII), i.e., the breakpoint between slow and fast rise fluorescence response to changing temperature, enabling rapid assays of photosynthetic thermal tolerance using a standardized metric. This method enables characterization of Tcrit for up to 48 samples per two-hour assay, demonstrating the capacity of T-F0 curves for high-throughput assays of thermal tolerance. Temperature-dependent fluorescence curves and their derived metric, Tcrit , may offer a timely and powerful new method for the field of phycology, enabling characterization and comparison of photosynthetic thermal tolerance of seaweeds across many populations, species, and biomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rosalie J Harris
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Callum Bryant
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Melinda A Coleman
- New South Wales Fisheries, National Marine Science Centre, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, 2450, Australia
- National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, 2450, Australia
- Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia, 6009, Australia
| | - Andrea Leigh
- School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, New South Wales, 2007, Australia
| | - Verónica F Briceño
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Pieter A Arnold
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Adrienne B Nicotra
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
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Bringloe TT, Wilkinson DP, Goldsmit J, Savoie AM, Filbee‐Dexter K, Macgregor KA, Howland KL, McKindsey CW, Verbruggen H. Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:3711-3727. [PMID: 35212084 PMCID: PMC9314671 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2021] [Revised: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2022] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jesica Goldsmit
- Fisheries and Oceans CanadaArctic and Aquatic Research DivisionWinnipegManitobaCanada
- Fisheries and Oceans CanadaMaurice Lamontagne InstituteMont‐JoliQuébecCanada
| | - Amanda M. Savoie
- Centre for Arctic Knowledge and ExplorationCanadian Museum of NatureOttawaOntarioCanada
| | - Karen Filbee‐Dexter
- Département de BiologieArcticNetQuébec OcéanUniversité LavalQuébecQuébecCanada
- School of Biological SciencesUWA Oceans InstituteUniversity of Western AustraliaCrawleyWestern AustraliaAustralia
- Institute of Marine ResearchFloedivigen Research StationHisNorway
| | | | - Kimberly L. Howland
- Fisheries and Oceans CanadaArctic and Aquatic Research DivisionWinnipegManitobaCanada
| | | | - Heroen Verbruggen
- School of BioSciencesUniversity of MelbourneMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
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