Geographical and experimental contexts modulate the effect of warming on top-down control: a meta-analysis

Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.

Thermal stratification controls taste and odour compounds by regulating the phytoplankton community in a large subtropical water source reservoir (Xin'anjiang Reservoir)

2-Methylisoborneol (2-MIB) and geosmin are compounds released by algae that significantly degrade reservoir water quality, posing a threat to both the safety of drinking water and the quality of aquatic products sourced from these environments. However, few studies have explored how enhanced thermal stratification affects the occurrence and regulation of odorants in large drinking water reservoirs. Through systematic monitoring and investigation of Xin'anjiang Reservoir, we found that enhanced thermal stratification promotes filamentous cyanobacteria, particularly Leptolyngbya sp., as the primary contributor to 2-MIB production within the 1-10 m layer of the water column. The highest 2-MIB concentration, 92.5 ng/L, was recorded in the riverine region, which was 2.54 and 14.52 times higher than that in the transitional and central parts of the reservoir, respectively. Temperature indirectly impacted algal growth and odorant production by modulating TN/TP ratios. Geosmin concentration responded rapidly to relatively low TN/TP ratios (< 25). Our findings suggest that phosphorus control in estuaries should be enhanced during thermal stratification period. In summary, our study provides valuable insights to inform pragmatic water intake strategies and the distribution and release of odorants caused by thermal stratification. This is particularly relevant in the context of future global warming and extremely high temperatures during the warm season.

Warming indirectly simplifies food webs through effects on apex predators

Warming alters ecosystems through direct physiological effects on organisms and indirect effects via biotic interactions, but their relative impacts in the wild are unknown due to the difficulty in warming natural environments. Here we bridge this gap by embedding manipulative field experiments within a natural stream temperature gradient to test whether warming and apex fish predators have interactive effects on freshwater ecosystems. Fish exerted cascading effects on algal production and microbial decomposition via both green and brown pathways in the food web, but only under warming. Neither temperature nor the presence of fish altered food web structure alone, but connectance and mean trophic level declined as consumer species were lost when both drivers acted together. A mechanistic model indicates that this temperature-induced trophic cascade is determined primarily by altered interactions, which cautions against extrapolating the impacts of warming from reductionist approaches that do not consider the wider food web.

Effects of the application of nanoscale zero-valent iron on plants: Meta analysis, mechanism, and prospects

In order to determine the ideal conditions for the application of nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) in agricultural production, this review studies the effects of nZVI application on plant physiological parameters, presents its mechanism and prospective outcomes. In this research, it was observed that the application of nZVI had both favorable and unfavorable effects on plant growth, photosynthesis, oxidative stress, and nutrient absorption levels. Specifically, the application of nZVI significantly increased the biomass and length of plants, and greatly reduced the germination rate of seeds. In terms of photosynthesis, there was no significant effect for the application of nZVI on the synthesis of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll and carotenoids). In terms of oxidative stress, plants respond by increasing the activity of antioxidant enzyme under mild nZVI stress and trigger oxidative burst under severe stress. In addition, the application of nZVI significantly increased the absorption of nutrients (B, K, P, S, Mg, Zn, and Fe). In summary, the application of nZVI can affect the plant physiological parameters, and the degree of influence varies depending on the concentration, preparation method, application method, particle size, and action time of nZVI. These findings are important for evaluating nZVI-related risks and enhancing nZVI safety in agricultural production.

Herbivory limits success of vegetation restoration globally

Restoring vegetation in degraded ecosystems is an increasingly common practice for promoting biodiversity and ecological function, but successful implementation is hampered by an incomplete understanding of the processes that limit restoration success. By synthesizing terrestrial and aquatic studies globally (2594 experimental tests from 610 articles), we reveal substantial herbivore control of vegetation under restoration. Herbivores at restoration sites reduced vegetation abundance more strongly (by 89%, on average) than those at relatively undegraded sites and suppressed, rather than fostered, plant diversity. These effects were particularly pronounced in regions with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Excluding targeted herbivores temporarily or introducing their predators improved restoration by magnitudes similar to or greater than those achieved by managing plant competition or facilitation. Thus, managing herbivory is a promising strategy for enhancing vegetation restoration efforts.

Understanding 'it depends' in ecology: a guide to hypothesising, visualising and interpreting statistical interactions

Ecologists routinely use statistical models to detect and explain interactions among ecological drivers, with a goal to evaluate whether an effect of interest changes in sign or magnitude in different contexts. Two fundamental properties of interactions are often overlooked during the process of hypothesising, visualising and interpreting interactions between drivers: the measurement scale - whether a response is analysed on an additive or multiplicative scale, such as a ratio or logarithmic scale; and the symmetry - whether dependencies are considered in both directions. Overlooking these properties can lead to one or more of three inferential errors: misinterpretation of (i) the detection and magnitude (Type-D error), and (ii) the sign of effect modification (Type-S error); and (iii) misidentification of the underlying processes (Type-A error). We illustrate each of these errors with a broad range of ecological questions applied to empirical and simulated data sets. We demonstrate how meta-analysis, a widely used approach that seeks explicitly to characterise context dependence, is especially prone to all three errors. Based on these insights, we propose guidelines to improve hypothesis generation, testing, visualisation and interpretation of interactions in ecology.

Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore-parasitoid interactions to climate change

Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore-parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore-parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.

Climate change negates positive CO2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions

One of the biggest challenges in more accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on future food web dynamics relates to how climate change affects multi-trophic species interactions, particularly when multiple interacting stressors are considered. Using a dynamic food web model, we investigate the individual and combined effect of ocean warming and acidification on changes in trophic interaction strengths (both direct and indirect) and the consequent effects on biomass structure of food web functional groups. To do this, we mimicked a species-rich multi-trophic-level temperate shallow-water rocky reef food web and integrated empirical data from mesocosm experiments on altered species interactions under warming and acidification, into food-web models. We show that a low number of strong temperature-driven changes in direct trophic interactions (feeding and competition) will largely determine the magnitude of biomass change (either increase or decrease) of high-order consumers, with increasing consumer biomass suppressing that of prey species. Ocean acidification, in contrast, alters a large number of weak indirect interactions (e.g. cascading effects of increased or decreased abundances of other groups), enabling a large increase in consumer and prey biomass. The positive effects of ocean acidification are driven by boosted primary productivity, with energy flowing up to higher trophic levels. We show that warming is a much stronger driver of positive as well as negative modifications of species biomass compared to ocean acidification. Warming affects a much smaller number of existing trophic interactions, though, with direct consumer-resource effects being more important than indirect effects. We conclude that the functional role of consumers in future food webs will be largely regulated by alterations in the strength of direct trophic interactions under ocean warming, with ensuing effects on the biomass structure of marine food webs.

Trophic downgrading decreases species asynchrony and community stability regardless of climate warming

Theory and some evidence suggest that biodiversity promotes stability. However, evidence of how trophic interactions and environmental changes modulate this relationship in multitrophic communities is lacking. Given the current scenario of biodiversity loss and climate changes, where top predators are disproportionately more affected, filling these knowledge gaps is crucial. We simulated climate warming and top predator loss in natural microcosms to investigate their direct and indirect effects on temporal stability of microbial communities and the role of underlying stabilising mechanisms. Community stability was insensitive to warming, but indirectly decreased due to top predator loss via increased mesopredator abundance and consequent reduction of species asynchrony and species stability. The magnitude of destabilising effects differed among trophic levels, being disproportionally higher at lower trophic levels (e.g. producers). Our study unravels major patterns and causal mechanisms by which trophic downgrading destabilises large food webs, regardless of climate warming scenarios.

The impact of climate warming on species diversity across scales: Lessons from experimental meta-ecosystems

AIM

The aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α-, β- and γ-diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1995-2017.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Fungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton.

METHODS

We compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α-, β- and γ-diversity, partitioning β-diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type).

RESULTS

Experimental warming did not affect local species richness (α-diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (β-diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ-diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α- and β-diversity.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.

Determinants of trophic cascade strength in freshwater ecosystems: a global analysis

Top-down cascade effects are among the most important mechanisms underlying community structure and abundance dynamics in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. A current challenge is understanding the factors controlling trophic cascade strength under global environmental changes. Here, we synthesized 161 global sites to analyze how multiple factors influence consumer-resource interactions with fish in freshwater ecosystems. Fish have a profound negative effect on zooplankton and water clarity but positive effects on primary producers and water nutrients. Furthermore, fish trophic levels can modify the strength of trophic cascades, but an even number of food chain length does not have a negative effect on primary producers in real ecosystems. Eutrophication, warming, and predator abundance strengthen the trophic cascade effects on phytoplankton, suggesting that top-down control will be increasingly important under future global environmental changes. We found no influence or even an increasing trophic cascade strength (e.g., phytoplankton) with increasing latitude, which does not support the widespread view that the trophic cascade strength increases closer to the equator. With increasing temporal and spatial scales, the experimental duration has an accumulative effect, whereas the experimental size is not associated with the trophic cascade strength. Taken together, eutrophication, warming, temporal scale, and predator trophic level and abundance are pivotal to understanding the impacts of multiple environmental factors on the trophic cascade strength. Future studies should stress the possible synergistic effect of multiple factors on the food web structure and dynamics.

Warming of aquatic ecosystems disrupts aquatic-terrestrial linkages in the tropics

Aquatic ecosystems are tightly linked to terrestrial ecosystems by exchanges of resources, which influence species interactions, community dynamics and functioning in both ecosystem types. However, our understanding of how this coupling responds to climate warming is restricted to temperate, boreal and arctic regions, with limited knowledge from tropical ecosystems. We investigated how warming aquatic ecosystems impact cross-ecosystem exchanges in the tropics, through the export of aquatic resources into the terrestrial environment and the breakdown of terrestrial resources within the aquatic environment. We experimentally heated 50 naturally assembled aquatic communities, contained within different-sized tank-bromeliads, to a 23.5-32°C gradient of mean water temperatures. The biomass, abundance and richness of aquatic insects emerging into the terrestrial environment all declined with rising temperatures over a 45-day experiment. Structural equation and linear mixed effects modelling suggested that these impacts were driven by deleterious effects of warming on insect development and survival, rather than being mediated by aquatic predation, nutrient availability or reduced body size. Decomposition was primarily driven by microbial activity. However, total decomposition by both microbes and macroinvertebrates increased with temperature in all but the largest ecosystems, where it decreased. Thus, warming decoupled aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, by reducing the flux of aquatic resources to terrestrial ecosystems but variably enhancing or reducing terrestrial resource breakdown in aquatic ecosystems. In contrast with increased emergence observed in warmed temperate ecosystems, future climate change is likely to reduce connectivity between tropical terrestrial and aquatic habitats, potentially impacting consumers in both ecosystem types. As tropical ectotherms live closer to their thermal tolerance limits compared to temperate species, warming can disrupt cross-ecosystem dynamics in an interconnected tropical landscape and should be considered when investigating ecosystem-level consequences of climate change.

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

Temperature has numerous effects on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. Yet, there is no general trend or consensus on the magnitude and directions of these effects. To fill this gap, we propose a mechanistic framework based on key biological rates that predicts how temperature influences biomass distribution and trophic control in food webs. We show that these predictions arise from thermal mismatches between biological rates and across trophic levels. We couple our theory with experimental data for a wide range of species and find that warming should lead to top-heavier terrestrial food chains and stronger top-down control in aquatic environments. We then derive predictions for the effects of temperature on herbivory and validate them with data on stream grazers. Our study provides a mechanistic explanation of thermal effects on consumer-resource systems which is crucial to better understand the biogeography and the consequences of global warming on trophic dynamics.

Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming

Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Warming affects crustacean grazing pressure on phytoplankton by altering the vertical distribution in a stratified lake

Zooplankton could efficiently graze algae and thus improve water quality. However, as thermal stratification commonly occurs in deep lakes, the effect of warming on the trophic interactions of plankton in depth profiles is still not clear. To explore the pressure of crustacean grazing on phytoplanktonic responses to enhanced thermal stratification under warming, we evaluated the monthly changes in the Secchi depth (SD), thermocline depth (TD), and the mean residence depth of zooplankton (zp MRD) and chlorophyll a (Chla MRD) in Lake Qiandaohu from January 2015 to December 2018. The thermal-stratification cycle was divided into weakness (from March to June) and formation periods (from July to February). Linear regression analyses showed that during both periods, the zp MRD was more sensitive to Chla MRD than to TD, and TD was negatively related to the difference between the zp MRD and Chla MRD. Structural equation model (SEM) analyses showed that the TD could be decreased by the direct effect of warming and the indirect effect of the decreased SD during weakness periods. A 0.95 °C increase in air temperature and a 0.85 m decrease in the SD between 1987 and 2018 corresponded to a decrease in the TD. Therefore, decreasing TD would weaken the top-down control on phytoplankton by moving phytoplankton far from zooplankton. Future decreasing TDs under climate warming may decouple crustacean grazing pressure on phytoplankton, which may further deteriorate the water quality.

Responses of plants to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) induced phytotoxicity: A hierarchical meta-analysis

Biologists have extensively investigated the toxicity of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) on plants in ecosystems, where experiments revealed that PBDEs can promote, inhibit, or have no significant effects on the physiological and biochemical functionality of plants. These studies have stimulated many theoretical works that aimed to elucidate the differences in the toxicity of PBDEs on various plants. However, there has been no quantitative attempt to reconcile theory with the results of empirical experiments. To close this gap between theory and experiments, we conducted a hierarchical meta-analysis to examine the toxicity of PBDEs on plants and confirmed potential sources of variation across numerous studies. Through the analysis of 1299 observations garnered from 41 studies, we revealed the significant toxicity of PBDEs on plants. This result was verified to be robust and showed no signs of bias. Our study affirmed that functional indexes can contribute to variations that lead to the toxicity of PBDEs on various plants. Furthermore, we found that lower congeners PBDEs were more toxic to plants than higher congeners PBDEs, and higher plants were more resistant to PBDEs induced phytotoxicity than lower plants. For interactive effects, only specific PBDEs concentrations had significant effects on glutathione S-transferase activities, and experimental durations had no significant impacts on any functional indexes. These results reconciled empirical studies and assisted us with elucidating the ecotoxicology of PBDEs induced phytotoxicity.

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches

Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.

Changes in species abundance after seven years of elevated atmospheric CO2 and warming in a Subarctic birch forest understorey, as modified by rodent and moth outbreaks

A seven-year long, two-factorial experiment using elevated temperatures (5 °C) and CO2 (concentration doubled compared to ambient conditions) designed to test the effects of global climate change on plant community composition was set up in a Subarctic ecosystem in northernmost Sweden. Using point-frequency analyses in permanent plots, an increased abundance of the deciduous Vaccinium myrtillus, the evergreens V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and the grass Avenella flexuosa was found in plots with elevated temperatures. We also observed a possibly transient community shift in the warmed plots, from the vegetation being dominated by the deciduous V. myrtillus to the evergreen V. vitis-idaea. This happened as a combined effect of V. myrtillus being heavily grazed during two events of herbivore attack-one vole outbreak (Clethrionomys rufocanus) followed by a more severe moth (Epirrita autumnata) outbreak that lasted for two growing seasons-producing a window of opportunity for V. vitis-idaea to utilize the extra light available as the abundance of V. myrtillus decreased, while at the same time benefitting from the increased growth in the warmed plots. Even though the effect of the herbivore attacks did not differ between treatments they may have obscured any additional treatment effects. This long-term study highlights that also the effects of stochastic herbivory events need to be accounted for when predicting future plant community changes.