Metabolic traits predict the effects of warming on phytoplankton competition

The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities

Suitable conditions for species to survive and reproduce constitute their ecological niche, which is built by abiotic conditions and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics. Organisms should ideally assess and use information about all these environmental dimensions to adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their own internal conditions. Dispersal plasticity is often considered through its dependence on abiotic conditions or conspecific density and, to a lesser extent, with reference to the effects of interactions with heterospecifics, potentially leading to misinterpretation of dispersal drivers. Here, we first review the evidence for the effects of and the potential interplays between abiotic factors, biotic interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics and phenotype on dispersal decisions. We then present an experimental test of these potential interplays, investigating the effects of density and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics on temperature-dependent dispersal in microcosms of Tetrahymena ciliates. We found significant differences in dispersal rates depending on the temperature, density and presence of another strain or species. However, the presence and density of conspecifics and heterospecifics had no effects on the thermal-dependency of dispersal. We discuss the causes and consequences of the (lack of) interplay between the different environmental dimensions and the phenotype for metacommunity assembly and dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Warming increases the compositional and functional variability of a temperate protist community

Phototrophic protists are a fundamental component of the world's oceans by serving as the primary source of energy, oxygen, and organic nutrients for the entire ecosystem. Due to the high thermal seasonality of their habitat, temperate protists could harbour many well-adapted species that tolerate ocean warming. However, these species may not sustain ecosystem functions equally well. To address these uncertainties, we conducted a 30-day mesocosm experiment to investigate how moderate (12 °C) and substantial (18 °C) warming compared to ambient conditions (6 °C) affect the composition (18S rRNA metabarcoding) and ecosystem functions (biomass, gross oxygen productivity, nutritional quality - C:N and C:P ratio) of a North Sea spring bloom community. Our results revealed warming-driven shifts in dominant protist groups, with haptophytes thriving at 12 °C and diatoms at 18 °C. Species responses primarily depended on the species' thermal traits, with indirect temperature effects on grazing being less relevant and phosphorus acting as a critical modulator. The species Phaeocystis globosa showed highest biomass on low phosphate concentrations and relatively increased in some replicates of both warming treatments. In line with this, the C:P ratio varied more with the presence of P. globosa than with temperature. Examining further ecosystem responses under warming, our study revealed lowered gross oxygen productivity but increased biomass accumulation whereas the C:N ratio remained unaltered. Although North Sea species exhibited resilience to elevated temperatures, a diminished functional similarity and heightened compositional variability indicate potential ecosystem repercussions for higher trophic levels. In conclusion, our research stresses the multifaceted nature of temperature effects on protist communities, emphasising the need for a holistic understanding that encompasses trait-based responses, indirect effects, and functional dynamics in the face of exacerbating temperature changes.

Competition Increases Risk of Species Extinction during Extreme Warming

AbstractTemperature and interspecific competition are fundamental drivers of community structure in natural systems and can interact to affect many measures of species performance. However, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which competition affects extinction temperatures during extreme warming. This information is important for evaluating future threats to species from extreme high-temperature events and heat waves, which are rising in frequency and severity around the world. Using experimental freshwater communities of rotifers and ciliates, this study shows that interspecific competition can lower the threshold temperature at which local extinction occurs, reducing time to extinction during periods of sustained warming by as much as 2 weeks. Competitors may lower extinction temperatures by altering biochemical characteristics of the natural environment that affect temperature tolerance (e.g., levels of dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and metabolic wastes) or by accelerating population decline through traditional effects of resource depletion on life history parameters that affect population growth rates. The results suggest that changes in community structure in space and time could drive variability in upper thermal limits.

Short-term responses of temperate and subarctic marine diatoms to Irgarol 1051 and UV radiation: Insights into temperature interactions

Phytoplankton face numerous pressures resulting from chemical and physical stressors, primarily induced by human activities. This study focuses on investigating the interactive effects of widely used antifouling agent Irgarol 1051 and UV radiation on the photo-physiology of marine diatoms from diverse latitudes, within the context of global warming. Our findings clearly shown that both Irgarol and UV radiation have a significant inhibitory impact on the photochemical performance of the three diatoms examined, with Irgarol treatment exhibiting more pronounced effects. In the case of the two temperate zone diatoms, we observed a decrease in the inhibition induced by Irgarol 1051 and UVR as the temperature increased up to 25°C. Similarly, for the subarctic species, an increase in temperature resulted in a reduction in the inhibition caused by Irgarol and UVR. These results suggest that elevated temperatures can mitigate the short-term inhibitory effects of both Irgarol and UVR on diatoms. Furthermore, our data indicate that increased temperature could significantly interact with UVR or Irgarol for temperate diatoms, while this was not the case for cold water diatoms, indicating temperate and subarctic diatoms may respond differentially under global warming.

Non-genetic phenotypic variability affects populations and communities in protist microcosms

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV), potentially driven by genetic and non-genetic mechanisms, can underlie variability in resource acquisition, individual fitness and ecological interactions. Impacts of ITV at higher levels of biological organizations are hence likely, but up-scaling our knowledge about ITV importance to communities and comparing its relative effects at population and community levels has rarely been investigated. Here, we tested the effects of genetic and non-genetic ITV on morphological traits in microcosms of protist communities by contrasting the effects of strains showing different ITV levels (i.e. trait averages and variance) on population growth, community composition and biomass production. We found that genetic and non-genetic ITV can lead to different effects on populations and communities across several generations. Furthermore, the effects of ITV declined across levels of biological organization: ITV directly altered population performance, with cascading but indirect consequences for community composition and biomass productivity. Overall, these results show that the drivers of ITV can have distinct effects on populations and communities, with cascading impacts on higher levels of biological organization that might mediate biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships.

Temperature dependence of competitive ability is cold-shifted compared to that of growth rate in marine phytoplankton

The effect of climate warming on community composition is expected to be contingent on competitive outcomes, yet approaches to projecting ecological outcomes often rely on measures of density-independent performance across temperatures. Recent theory suggests that the temperature response of competitive ability differs in shape from that of population growth rate. Here, we test this hypothesis empirically and find thermal performance curves of competitive ability in aquatic microorganisms to be systematically left-shifted and flatter compared to those of exponential growth rate. The minimum resource requirement for growth, R*-an inverse indicator of competitive ability-changes with temperature following a U-shaped pattern in all four species tested, contrasting from their left-skewed density-independent growth rate thermal performance curves. Our results provide new evidence that exploitative competitive success is highest at temperatures that are sub-optimal for growth, suggesting performance estimates of density-independent variables might underpredict performance in cooler competitive environments.

Meta-analysis reveals responses of coccolithophores and diatoms to warming

A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the effects of warming on the physiological processes of coccolithophores and diatoms by synthesizing a large number of published literatures. A total of 154 studies consisting 301 experiments were synthesized in this study. Under a projected temperature increase of 3-5 °C by IPCC AR6 at the end of this century, our results suggest that the growth and photosynthetic rate of coccolithophores were significantly enhanced by the rising temperature, while the calcification of coccolithophores was only slightly promoted. Warming also had significantly positive effects on the growth but not photosynthesis of diatoms. In comparison, the effect size of warming on the growth rate of coccolithophores was larger than that of diatoms. However, there was no significant effect of warming on either the ratio of particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon (PIC:POC) of coccolithophores or the ratio of biogenic silica to carbon (BSi:C) of diatoms. Furthermore, the results reveal latitudinal and size-specific patterns of the effect sizes of warming. For diatoms, the effects of warming on growth were more prominent in high latitudes, specifically for the Southern Hemisphere species. In addition, the effect size of warming on the small-sized diatoms was larger than that of the large-sized diatoms. For coccolithophores, the growth of the Southern Hemisphere temperate strains was significantly promoted by warming. Overall, the results based on the meta-analysis indicate that the projected warming of the end of this century will be more favor to the growth of coccolithophores than that of diatoms, thus potentially affect the competitive advantages of coccolithophores over diatoms; while the mid-to high latitude species/strains of both coccolithophores and diatoms will benefit more than their counterparts in the lower latitudes. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into predicting both the inter- and intra-group competitive advantages of diatoms and coccolithophores under the future warming climate change scenario.

Unlocking gut microbiota potential of dairy cows in varied environmental conditions using shotgun metagenomic approach

Food security and environmental pollution are major concerns for the expanding world population, where farm animals are the largest source of dietary proteins and are responsible for producing anthropogenic gases, including methane, especially by cows. We sampled the fecal microbiomes of cows from varying environmental regions of Pakistan to determine the better-performing microbiomes for higher yields and lower methane emissions by applying the shotgun metagenomic approach. We selected managed dairy farms in the Chakwal, Salt Range, and Patoki regions of Pakistan, and also incorporated animals from local farmers. Milk yield and milk fat, and protein contents were measured and correlated with microbiome diversity and function. The average milk protein content from the Salt Range farms was 2.68%, with an average peak milk yield of 45 litters/head/day, compared to 3.68% in Patoki farms with an average peak milk yield of 18 litters/head/day. Salt-range dairy cows prefer S-adenosyl-L-methionine (SAMe) to S-adenosyl-L-homocysteine (SAH) conversion reactions and are responsible for low milk protein content. It is linked to Bacteroides fragilles which account for 10% of the total Bacteroides, compared to 3% in the Patoki region. The solid Non-Fat in the salt range was 8.29%, whereas that in patoki was 6.34%. Moreover, Lactobacillus plantarum high abundance in Salt Range provided propionate as alternate sink to [H], and overcoming a Methanobrevibacter ruminantium high methane emissions in the Salt Range. Furthermore, our results identified ruminant fecal microbiomes that can be used as fecal microbiota transplants (FMT) to high-methane emitters and low-performing herds to increase farm output and reduce the environmental damage caused by anthropogenic gases emitted by dairy cows.

Temperature and predators as interactive drivers of community properties

The effects of warming on ecological communities emerge from a range of potentially asymmetric impacts on individual physiology and development. Understanding these responses, however, is limited by our ability to connect mechanisms or emergent patterns across the many processes that drive variation in demography. Further complicating this understanding is the gain or loss of predators to many communities, which may interact with changes in temperature to drive community change. Here we conducted a factorial warming and predation experiment to test generalized predictions about responses to warming. We used microcosms with a range of protists, rotifers, and a gastrotrich, with and without the predator Actinosphaerium, to assess changes in diversity, body size, function, and composition in response to warming. We find that community respiration and predator:prey biovolume ratios peak at intermediate temperatures, while species richness declined with temperature. We also found that overall biomass increased with species richness, driven by the effect of temperature on richness. There was little evidence of an interaction between predation and temperature change, likely because the predator was mostly limited to the intermediate temperatures. Overall, our results suggest that general predictions about community change are still challenging to make but may benefit by considering multiple dimensions of community patterns in an integrated way.

Predicting effects of multiple interacting global change drivers across trophic levels

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic drivers, which can act synergistically or antagonistically on ecological systems. Predicting how different global change drivers simultaneously contribute to observed biodiversity change is a key challenge for ecology and conservation. However, we lack the mechanistic understanding of how multiple global change drivers influence the vital rates of multiple interacting species. We propose that reaction norms, the relationships between a driver and vital rates like growth, mortality, and consumption, provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of community responses to multiple drivers. Understanding how multiple drivers interact to affect demographic rates using a reaction-norm perspective can improve our ability to make predictions of interactions at higher levels of organization-that is, community and food web. Building on the framework of consumer-resource interactions and widely studied thermal performance curves, we illustrate how joint driver impacts can be scaled up from the population to the community level. A simple proof-of-concept model demonstrates how reaction norms of vital rates predict the prevalence of driver interactions at the community level. A literature search suggests that our proposed approach is not yet used in multiple driver research. We outline how realistic response surfaces (i.e., multidimensional reaction norms) can be inferred by parametric and nonparametric approaches. Response surfaces have the potential to strengthen our understanding of how multiple drivers affect communities as well as improve our ability to predict when interactive effects emerge, two of the major challenges of ecology today.

Resident-Disperser Differences and Genetic Variability Affect Communities in Microcosms

AbstractDispersal is a key process mediating ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Its effects on the dynamics of spatially structured systems, population genetics, and species range distribution can depend on phenotypic differences between dispersing and nondispersing individuals. However, scaling up the importance of resident-disperser differences to communities and ecosystems has rarely been considered, in spite of intraspecific phenotypic variability being an important factor mediating community structure and productivity. Here, we used the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila, in which phenotypic traits are known to differ between residents and dispersers, to test (i) whether these resident-disperser differences affect biomass and composition in competitive communities composed of four other Tetrahymena species and (ii) whether these effects are genotype dependent. We found that dispersers led to a lower community biomass compared with residents. This effect was highly consistent across the 20 T. thermophila genotypes used, despite intraspecific variability in resident-disperser phenotypic differences. We also found a significant genotypic effect on biomass production, showing that intraspecific variability has consequences for communities. Our study suggests that individual dispersal strategy can scale up to community productivity in a predictable way, opening new perspectives to the functioning of spatially structured ecosystems.

Heavy Metals Exacerbate the Effect of Temperature on the Growth of Chlorella sp.: Implications on Algal Blooms and Management

With the accelerated urbanization and rapid development of the industrial and agricultural sectors, concern about the pollution of water environments is becoming more widespread. Algal blooms of varying sizes are becoming increasingly frequent in lakes and reservoirs; temperatures, nutrients, heavy metals, and dissolved oxygen are the factors that influence algal bloom occurrence. However, knowledge of the combined effect of heavy metals and temperature on algal growth remains limited. Thus, this study investigated how specific concentrations of heavy metals affect algal growth at different temperatures; to this end, two heavy metals were used (0.01 mg/L Pb2+ and 0.05 mg/L Cr6+) at three incubation temperatures (15, 25, and 30 °C) with the alga Chlorella sp. A higher incubation temperature contributed to a rise in soluble proteins, which promoted algal growth. The density of algal cells increased with temperature, and catalase (CAT) decreased with increasing temperature. Chlorella sp. growth and catalase activity were optimal at 30 °C (algal cell density: 1.46 × 107 cell/L; CAT activity: 29.98 gprot/L). Pb2+ and Cr6+ significantly promoted Chlorella sp. growth during incubation at 25 and 30 °C, respectively. At specific temperatures, 0.01 mg/L Pb2+ and 0.05 mg/L Cr6+ promoted the production of soluble proteins and, hence, the growth of Chlorella sp. The results provide a useful background for the mitigation and prevention of algal blooms.

Thermal traits govern the response of microbial community dynamics and ecosystem functioning to warming

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin the dynamics of community turnover in response to environmental change is critical to predicting how warming will influence ecosystem functioning. Here, we quantify the effect of changing temperature on community composition and ecosystem functioning via the action of ecological selection on population-level thermal traits. To achieve this, we use microbes isolated from a network of geothermal streams in Iceland where in situ temperatures span 8–38°C within a single catchment. We first quantified variability in thermal tolerance between taxa, and then assembled synthetic communities along a broad thermal gradient to explore how temperature-driven selection on thermal tolerance traits shaped the emergent community structures and functions. We found marked changes in community structure and composition with temperature, such that communities exposed to extreme temperatures (10, 35°C) had highly asymmetric biomass distributions and low taxonomic richness. Thermal optima were a good predictor of the presence and relative abundance of taxa in the high-temperature treatments. We also found that the evenness of the abundance distribution was related to ecosystem production, such that communities with more equitable abundance distribution were also the most productive. Our results highlight the utility of using a multi-level approach that links population-level traits with community structure and ecosystem functioning to better understand how ecological communities will respond to global warming.

Preference of carbon absorption determines the competitive ability of algae along atmospheric CO2 concentration

Although many studies have focused on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on algal growth, few of them have demonstrated how CO2 interacts with carbon absorption capacity to determine the algal competition at the population level. We conducted a pairwise competition experiment of Phormidium sp., Scenedesmus quadricauda, Chlorella vulgaris and Synedra ulna. The results showed that when the CO2 concentration increased from 400 to 760 ppm, the competitiveness of S. quadricauda increased, the competitiveness of Phormidium sp. and C. vulgaris decreased, and the competitiveness of S. ulna was always the lowest. We constructed a model to explore whether interspecific differences in affinity and flux rate for CO2 and HCO3 - could explain changes in competitiveness between algae species along the gradient of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Affinity and flux rates are the capture capacity and transport capacity of substrate respectively, and are inversely proportional to each other. The simulation results showed that, when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was low, species with high affinity for both CO2 and HCO3 - (HCHH) had the highest competitiveness, followed by the species with high affinity for CO2 and low affinity for HCO3 - (HCLH), the species with low affinity for CO2 and high affinity for HCO3 - (LCHH) and the species with low affinity for both CO2 and HCO3 - (LCLH); when the CO2 concentration was high, the species were ranked according to the competitive ability: LCHH > LCLH > HCHH > HCLH. Thus, low resource concentration is beneficial to the growth and reproduction of algae with high affinity. With the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the competitive advantage changed from HCHH species to LCHH species. These results indicate the important species types contributing to water bloom under the background of increasing global atmospheric CO2, highlighting the importance of carbon absorption characteristics in understanding, predicting and regulating population dynamics and community composition of algae.

Nutrient Control of Phytoplankton Abundance and Biomass, and Microplankton Assemblage Structure in the Lower Columbia River (Vancouver, Washington, USA)

Nutrient limitation of phytoplankton is common but by no means universal in large temperate rivers. Previous field studies in the Columbia River, USA, are suggestive of nutrient limitations of phytoplankton, especially during summer, but this has never been tested experimentally. We therefore undertook monthly 5-day nutrient amendment incubation experiments from May–September 2018 using Columbia River water collected at Vancouver, Washington, USA. We compared replicate treatment bottles containing natural microplankton assemblages and amended nutrients (NO3, PO4 and SiO4 in combination) with replicate control bottles containing natural microplankton assemblages and ambient nutrients. Phytoplankton abundance and biomass were compared between treatments and controls on each day of each experiment, and microplankton assemblage structure was evaluated using Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance and Non-Metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling ordination on Day 0 (ambient) and Day 5 of each experiment. Nutrient amendment significantly affected phytoplankton abundance and biomass, particularly in June–August, although this varied between taxa (e.g., cyanobacteria, dinoflagellates, flagellates and ciliates showed more frequent positive responses than chlorophytes and diatoms did). Abundance-based microplankton assemblage structure was significantly correlated with PO4, SiO4 and NO3 concentrations, and BIOENV procedure in R revealed that the best subset of explanatory variables included SiO4 and NO3 concentrations. Biomass-based assemblage structure was significantly correlated with SiO4 and NO3, although BIOENV explanatory variables included only SiO4. These results are suggestive of summertime nutrient control of phytoplankton abundance and biomass, as well as microplankton composition, in the lower Columbia River, at least during some months. Since eutrophication is increasing in the watershed, this could have important implications for higher level consumers (e.g., zooplankton and out-migrating juvenile salmon).

Smaller species but larger stages: Warming effects on inter- and intraspecific community size structure

Global warming can alter size distributions of animal communities, but the contribution of size shifts within versus between species to such changes remains unknown. In particular, it is unclear if expected body size shrinkage in response to warming, observed at the interspecific level, can be used to infer similar size shifts within species. In this study, we compare warming effects on interspecific (relative species abundance) versus intraspecific (relative stage abundance) size structure of competing consumers by analyzing stage‐structured bioenergetic food web models consisting of one or two consumer species and two resources, parameterized for pelagic plankton. Varying composition and temperature and body size dependencies in these models, we predicted interspecific versus intraspecific size structure across temperature. We found that warming shifted community size structure toward dominance of smaller species, in line with empirical evidence summarized in our review of 136 literature studies. However, this result emerged only given a size–temperature interaction favoring small over large individuals in warm environments. In contrast, the same mechanism caused an intraspecific shift toward dominance of larger (adult) stages, reconciling disparate observations of size responses within and across zooplankton species in the literature. As the empirical evidence for warming‐driven stage shifts is scarce and equivocal, we call for more experimental studies on intraspecific size changes with warming. Understanding the global warming impacts on animal communities requires that we consider and quantify the relative importance of mechanisms concurrently shaping size distributions within and among species.

Comparative study of the physiological responses of Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira weissflogii to initial pCO2 in batch cultures, with special reference to bloom dynamics

Extensive studies have documented the responses of diatoms to environmental drivers in the context of climate change. However, bloom dynamics are usually ignored in most studies. Here, we investigated the effects of the initial pCO₂ on the bloom characteristics of two cosmopolitan diatoms, Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira weissflogii. Batch cultures with two initial pCO₂ conditions (LC: 400 μatm; HC: 1000 μatm) were used to investigate bloom dynamics under current and ocean acidification scenarios. The simulated S. costatum bloom was characterized by fast accumulation, a rapid decline in biomass, and a shorter stationary phase. The T. weissflogii bloom had a longer stationary phase, and cell density remained at high levels after culturing for 19 days. The physiological performances of the two diatoms varied significantly in the different bloom phases. We found that the initial pCO₂ has modulating effects on biomass accumulation and bloom dynamics for these two diatoms. The higher initial pCO₂ enhanced the specific growth rate of T. weissflogii by 6% in the exponential phase, leading to higher cell densities, while 86% higher decay rates were observed in the HC cultures of S. costatum. Overall, ocean acidification may alter the dynamics of diatom blooms and may have profound impacts on the biological carbon pump.

Competition and resource depletion shape the thermal response of population fitness in Aedes aegypti

Mathematical models that incorporate the temperature dependence of lab-measured life history traits are increasingly being used to predict how climatic warming will affect ectotherms, including disease vectors and other arthropods. These temperature-trait relationships are typically measured under laboratory conditions that ignore how conspecific competition in depleting resource environments—a commonly occurring scenario in nature—regulates natural populations. Here, we used laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, combined with a stage-structured population model, to investigate this issue. We find that intensified larval competition in ecologically-realistic depleting resource environments can significantly diminish the vector’s maximal population-level fitness across the entire temperature range, cause a ~6 °C decrease in the optimal temperature for fitness, and contract its thermal niche width by ~10 °C. Our results provide evidence for the importance of considering intra-specific competition under depleting resources when predicting how arthropod populations will respond to climatic warming.

Huxley et al. use laboratory experiments to examine how environmental resource depletion impacts temperature-dependent traits observed in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The authors find that the conspecific competition dynamics of larvae significantly alter how the mosquito’s population-level fitness responds to temperature, shedding light on how arthropods and other disease vectors may respond to environmental change.

Eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities

Eco-evolutionary dynamics can mediate species and community responses to habitat warming and fragmentation, two of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The eco-evolutionary consequences of warming and fragmentation are typically studied independently, hindering our understanding of their simultaneous impacts. Here, we provide a new perspective rooted in trade-offs among traits for understanding their eco-evolutionary consequences. On the one hand, temperature influences traits related to metabolism, such as resource acquisition and activity levels. Such traits are also likely to have trade-offs with other energetically costly traits, like antipredator defences or dispersal. On the other hand, fragmentation can influence a variety of traits (e.g. dispersal) through its effects on the spatial environment experienced by individuals, as well as properties of populations, such as genetic structure. The combined effects of warming and fragmentation on communities should thus reflect their collective impact on traits of individuals and populations, as well as trade-offs at multiple trophic levels, leading to unexpected dynamics when effects are not additive and when evolutionary responses modulate them. Here, we provide a road map to navigate this complexity. First, we review single-species responses to warming and fragmentation. Second, we focus on consumer-resource interactions, considering how eco-evolutionary dynamics can arise in response to warming, fragmentation, and their interaction. Third, we illustrate our perspective with several example scenarios in which trait trade-offs could result in significant eco-evolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we consider the possible eco-evolutionary consequences of (i) evolution in thermal performance of a species involved in a consumer-resource interaction, (ii) ecological or evolutionary changes to encounter and attack rates of consumers, and (iii) changes to top consumer body size in tri-trophic food chains. In these scenarios, we present a number of novel, sometimes counter-intuitive, potential outcomes. Some of these expectations contrast with those solely based on ecological dynamics, for example, evolutionary responses in unexpected directions for resource species or unanticipated population declines in top consumers. Finally, we identify several unanswered questions about the conditions most likely to yield strong eco-evolutionary dynamics, how better to incorporate the role of trade-offs among traits, and the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in governing responses to warming in fragmented communities.

Phytoplankton biodiversity is more important for ecosystem functioning in highly variable thermal environments

The 21st century has seen an acceleration of anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity loss, with both stressors deemed to affect ecosystem functioning. However, we know little about the interactive effects of both stressors and in particular about the interaction of increased climatic variability and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning. This should be remedied because larger climatic variability is one of the main features of climate change. Here, we demonstrated that temperature fluctuations led to changes in the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem functioning. We used microcosm communities of different phytoplankton species richness and exposed them to a constant, mild, and severe temperature-fluctuating environment. Wider temperature fluctuations led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes, meaning that species loss had a stronger negative effect on ecosystem functioning in more fluctuating environments. For severe temperature fluctuations, the slope increased through time due to a decrease of the productivity of species-poor communities over time. We developed a theoretical competition model to better understand our experimental results and showed that larger differences in thermal tolerances across species led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes. Species-rich communities maintained their ecosystem functioning with increased fluctuation as they contained species able to resist the thermally fluctuating environments, while this was on average not the case in species-poor communities. Our results highlight the importance of biodiversity for maintaining ecosystem functions and services in the context of increased climatic variability under climate change.

Systematic variation in the temperature dependence of bacterial carbon use efficiency

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a key characteristic of microbial physiology and underlies community-level responses to changing environments. Yet, we currently lack general empirical insights into variation in microbial CUE at the level of individual taxa. Here, through experiments with 29 strains of environmentally isolated bacteria, we find that bacterial CUE typically responds either positively to temperature, or has no discernible response, within biologically meaningful temperature ranges. Using a global data synthesis, we show that these results are generalisable across most culturable groups of bacteria. This variation in the thermal responses of bacterial CUE is taxonomically structured, and stems from the fact that relative to respiration rates, bacterial population growth rates typically respond more strongly to temperature, and are also subject to weaker evolutionary constraints. Our results provide new insights into microbial physiology, and a basis for more accurately modelling the effects of thermal fluctuations on complex microbial communities.

Adaptive evolution shapes the present-day distribution of the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate

Developing a thorough understanding of how ectotherm physiology adapts to different thermal environments is of crucial importance, especially in the face of global climate change. A key aspect of an organism's thermal performance curve (TPC)-the relationship between fitness-related trait performance and temperature-is its thermal sensitivity, i.e., the rate at which trait values increase with temperature within its typically experienced thermal range. For a given trait, the distribution of thermal sensitivities across species, often quantified as "activation energy" values, is typically right-skewed. Currently, the mechanisms that generate this distribution are unclear, with considerable debate about the role of thermodynamic constraints versus adaptive evolution. Here, using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we study the evolution of the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate across phytoplankton (Cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae) and prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea), 2 microbial groups that play a major role in the global carbon cycle. We find that thermal sensitivity across these groups is moderately phylogenetically heritable, and that its distribution is shaped by repeated evolutionary convergence throughout its parameter space. More precisely, we detect bursts of adaptive evolution in thermal sensitivity, increasing the amount of overlap among its distributions in different clades. We obtain qualitatively similar results from evolutionary analyses of the thermal sensitivities of 2 physiological rates underlying growth rate: net photosynthesis and respiration of plants. Furthermore, we find that these episodes of evolutionary convergence are consistent with 2 opposing forces: decrease in thermal sensitivity due to environmental fluctuations and increase due to adaptation to stable environments. Overall, our results indicate that adaptation can lead to large and relatively rapid shifts in thermal sensitivity, especially in microbes for which rapid evolution can occur at short timescales. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to elucidating the implications of rapid evolution in organismal thermal sensitivity for ecosystem functioning.

High predictability of direct competition between marine diatoms under different temperatures and nutrient states

The distribution of marine phytoplankton will shift alongside changes in marine environments, leading to altered species frequencies and community composition. An understanding of the response of mixed populations to abiotic changes is required to adequately predict how environmental change may affect the future composition of phytoplankton communities. This study investigated the growth and competitive ability of two marine diatoms, Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Thalassiosira pseudonana, along a temperature gradient (9-35°C) spanning the thermal niches of both species under both high-nitrogen nutrient-replete and low-nitrogen nutrient-limited conditions. Across this temperature gradient, the competitive outcome under both nutrient conditions at any assay temperature, and the critical temperature at which competitive advantage shifted from one species to the other, was well predicted by the temperature dependencies of the growth rates of the two species measured in monocultures. The temperature at which the competitive advantage switched from P. tricornutum to T. pseudonana increased from 18.8°C under replete conditions to 25.3°C under nutrient-limited conditions. Thus, P. tricornutum was a better competitor over a wider temperature range in a low N environment. Being able to determine the competitive outcomes from physiological responses of single species to environmental changes has the potential to significantly improve the predictive power of phytoplankton spatial distribution and community composition models.

Competitive traits of coral symbionts may alter the structure and function of the microbiome

In the face of global warming and unprecedented coral bleaching, a new avenue of research is focused on relatively rare algal symbionts and their ability to confer thermal tolerance to their host by association. Yet, thermal tolerance is just one of many physiological attributes inherent to the diversity of symbiodinians, a result of millions of years of competition and niche partitioning. Here, we revealed that competition among cocultured symbiodinians alters nutrient assimilation and compound production with species-specific responses. For Cladocopium goreaui, a species ubiquitous within stable coral associations, temperature stress increased sensitivity to competition eliciting a shift toward investment in cell replication, i.e., putative niche exploitation. Meanwhile, competition led Durusdinium trenchii, a thermally tolerant “background” symbiodinian, to divert resources from immediate growth to storage. As such, competition may be driving the dominance of C. goreaui outside of temperature stress, the destabilization of symbioses under thermal stress, the repopulation of coral tissues by D. trenchii following bleaching, and ultimately undermine the efficacy of symbiont turnover as an adaptive mechanism.

Abrupt declines in marine phytoplankton production driven by warming and biodiversity loss in a microcosm experiment

Rising sea surface temperatures are expected to lead to the loss of phytoplankton biodiversity. However, we currently understand very little about the interactions between warming, loss of phytoplankton diversity and its impact on the oceans' primary production. We experimentally manipulated the species richness of marine phytoplankton communities under a range of warming scenarios, and found that ecosystem production declined more abruptly with species loss in communities exposed to higher temperatures. Species contributing positively to ecosystem production in the warmed treatments were those that had the highest optimal temperatures for photosynthesis, implying that the synergistic impacts of warming and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning were mediated by thermal trait variability. As species were lost from the communities, the probability of taxa remaining that could tolerate warming diminished, resulting in abrupt declines in ecosystem production. Our results highlight the potential for synergistic effects of warming and biodiversity loss on marine primary production.

Evolution, Microbes, and Changing Ocean Conditions

Experimental evolution and the associated theory are underutilized in marine microbial studies; the two fields have developed largely in isolation. Here, we review evolutionary tools for addressing four key areas of ocean global change biology: linking plastic and evolutionary trait changes, the contribution of environmental variability to determining trait values, the role of multiple environmental drivers in trait change, and the fate of populations near their tolerance limits. Wherever possible, we highlight which data from marine studies could use evolutionary approaches and where marine model systems can advance our understanding of evolution. Finally, we discuss the emerging field of marine microbial experimental evolution. We propose a framework linking changes in environmental quality (defined as the cumulative effect on population growth rate) with population traits affecting evolutionary potential, in order to understand which evolutionary processes are likely to be most important across a range of locations for different types of marine microbes.

The effects of temperature and dispersal on species diversity in natural microbial metacommunities

Dispersal is key for maintaining biodiversity at local- and regional scales in metacommunities. However, little is known about the combined effects of dispersal and climate change on biodiversity. Theory predicts that alpha-diversity is maximized at intermediate dispersal rates, resulting in a hump-shaped diversity-dispersal relationship. This relationship is predicted to flatten when competition increases. We anticipate that this same flattening will occur with increased temperature because, in the rising part of the temperature performance curve, interspecific competition is predicted to increase. We explored this question using aquatic communities of Sarracenia purpurea from early- and late-successional stages, in which we simulated four levels of dispersal and four temperature scenarios. With increased dispersal, the hump shape was observed consistently in late successional communities, but only in higher temperature treatments in early succession. Increased temperature did not flatten the hump-shape relationship, but decreased the level of alpha- and gamma-diversity. Interestingly, higher temperatures negatively impacted small-bodied species. These metacommunity-level extinctions likely relaxed interspecific competition, which could explain the absence of flattening of the diversity-dispersal relationship. Our findings suggest that climate change will cause extinctions both at local- and global- scales and emphasize the importance of intermediate levels of dispersal as an insurance for local diversity.

Temperature dependence of parasitic infection and gut bacterial communities in bumble bees

High temperatures (e.g., fever) and gut microbiota can both influence host resistance to infection. However, effects of temperature-driven changes in gut microbiota on resistance to parasites remain unexplored. We examined the temperature dependence of infection and gut bacterial communities in bumble bees infected with the trypanosomatid parasite Crithidia bombi. Infection intensity decreased by over 80% between 21 and 37°C. Temperatures of peak infection were lower than predicted based on parasite growth in vitro, consistent with mismatches in thermal performance curves of hosts, parasites and gut symbionts. Gut bacterial community size and composition exhibited slight but significant, non-linear, and taxon-specific responses to temperature. Abundance of total gut bacteria and of Orbaceae, both negatively correlated with infection in previous studies, were positively correlated with infection here. Prevalence of the bee pathogen-containing family Enterobacteriaceae declined with temperature, suggesting that high temperature may confer protection against diverse gut pathogens. Our results indicate that resistance to infection reflects not only the temperature dependence of host and parasite performance, but also temperature-dependent activity of gut bacteria. The thermal ecology of gut parasite-symbiont interactions may be broadly relevant to infectious disease, both in ectothermic organisms that inhabit changing climates, and in endotherms that exhibit fever-based immunity.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological 'mismatches'. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species's demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer-resource interactions and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change.

Predicting the Thermal and Allometric Dependencies of Disease Transmission via the Metabolic Theory of Ecology

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) provides a general framework of allometric and thermal dependence that may be useful for predicting how climate change will affect disease spread. Using Daphnia magna and a microsporidian gut parasite, we conducted two experiments across a wide thermal range and fitted transmission models that utilize MTE submodels for transmission parameters. We decomposed transmission into contact rate and probability of infection and further decomposed probability of infection into a product of gut residence time (GRT) and per-parasite infection rate of gut cells. Contact rate generally increased with temperature and scaled positively with body size, whereas infection rate had a narrow hump-shaped thermal response and scaled negatively with body size. GRT increased with host size and was longest at extreme temperatures. GRT and infection rate inside the gut combined to create a 3.5 times higher probability of infection for the smallest relative to the largest individuals. Small temperature changes caused large differences in transmission. We also fit several alternative transmission models to data at individual temperatures. The more complex models-parasite antagonism or synergism and host heterogeneity-did not substantially improve the fit to the data. Our results show that transmission rate is the product of several distinct thermal and allometric functions that can be predicted continuously across temperature and host size using the MTE.

Temperature-mediated inhibition of a bumblebee parasite by an intestinal symbiont

Competition between organisms is often mediated by environmental factors, including temperature. In animal intestines, nonpathogenic symbionts compete physically and chemically against pathogens, with consequences for host infection. We used metabolic theory-based models to characterize differential responses to temperature of a bacterial symbiont and a co-occurring trypanosomatid parasite of bumblebees, which regulate body temperature during flight and incubation. We hypothesized that inhibition of parasites by bacterial symbionts would increase with temperature, due to symbionts having higher optimal growth temperatures than parasites. We found that a temperature increase over the range measured in bumblebee colonies would favour symbionts over parasites. As predicted by our hypothesis, symbionts reduced the optimal growth temperature for parasites, both in direct competition and when parasites were exposed to symbiont spent medium. Inhibitory effects of the symbiont increased with temperature, reflecting accelerated growth and acid production by symbionts. Our results indicate that high temperatures, whether due to host endothermy or environmental factors, can enhance the inhibitory effects of symbionts on parasites. Temperature-modulated manipulation of microbiota could be one explanation for fever- and heat-induced reductions of infection in animals, with consequences for diseases of medical and conservation concern.

Effect of phytoplankton size diversity on primary productivity in the North Pacific: trait distributions under environmental variability

While most biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies have found positive effects of species richness on productivity, it remain unclear whether similar patterns hold for marine phytoplankton with high local richness. We use the continuous trait‐based modelling approach, which assumes infinite richness and represents diversity in terms of the variance of the size distribution, to investigate the effects of phytoplankton size diversity on productivity in a three‐dimensional ocean circulation model driven by realistic physics forcing. We find a slightly negative effect of size diversity on primary production, which we attribute to several factors including functional trait‐environment interactions, flexible stoichiometry and the saturation of productivity at low diversity levels. The benefits of trait optimisation, whereby narrow size distributions enhance productivity under relatively stable conditions, tend to dominate over those of adaptive capacity, whereby greater diversity enhances the ability of the community to respond to environmental variability.

Changes in temperature alter the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

Global warming and the loss of biodiversity through human activities (e.g., land-use change, pollution, invasive species) are two of the most profound threats to the functional integrity of the Earth's ecosystems. These factors are, however, most frequently investigated separately, ignoring the potential for synergistic effects of biodiversity loss and environmental warming on ecosystem functioning. Here we use high-throughput experiments with microbial communities to investigate how changes in temperature affect the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We found that changes in temperature systematically altered the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. As temperatures departed from ambient conditions the exponent of the diversity-functioning relationship increased, meaning that more species were required to maintain ecosystem functioning under thermal stress. This key result was driven by two processes linked to variability in the thermal tolerance curves of taxa. First, more diverse communities had a greater chance of including species with thermal traits that enabled them to maintain productivity as temperatures shifted from ambient conditions. Second, we found a pronounced increase in the contribution of complementarity to the net biodiversity effect at high and low temperatures, indicating that changes in species interactions played a critical role in mediating the impacts of temperature change on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Our results highlight that if biodiversity loss occurs independently of species' thermal tolerance traits, then the additional impacts of environmental warming will result in sharp declines in ecosystem function.