Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change

Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000-2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24-25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection.

Priorities for Mediterranean marine turtle conservation and management in the face of climate change

As climate-related impacts threaten marine biodiversity globally, it is important to adjust conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. Translating scientific knowledge into practical management, however, is often complicated due to resource, economic and policy constraints, generating a knowledge-action gap. To develop potential solutions for marine turtle conservation, we explored the perceptions of key actors across 18 countries in the Mediterranean. These actors evaluated their perceived relative importance of 19 adaptation and mitigation measures that could safeguard marine turtles from climate change. Of importance, despite differences in expertise, experience and focal country, the perceptions of researchers and management practitioners largely converged with respect to prioritizing adaptation and mitigation measures. Climate change was considered to have the greatest impacts on offspring sex ratios and suitable nesting sites. The most viable adaptation/mitigation measures were considered to be reducing other pressures that act in parallel to climate change. Ecological effectiveness represented a key determinant for implementing proposed measures, followed by practical applicability, financial cost, and societal cost. This convergence in opinions across actors likely reflects long-standing initiatives in the Mediterranean region towards supporting knowledge exchange in marine turtle conservation. Our results provide important guidance on how to prioritize measures that incorporate climate change in decision-making processes related to the current and future management and protection of marine turtles at the ocean-basin scale, and could be used to guide decisions in other regions globally. Importantly, this study demonstrates a successful example of how interactive processes can be used to fill the knowledge-action gap between research and management.

Uncertain future for global sea turtle populations in face of sea level rise

Sea level rise has accelerated during recent decades, exceeding rates recorded during the previous two millennia, and as a result many coastal habitats and species around the globe are being impacted. This situation is expected to worsen due to anthropogenically induced climate change. However, the magnitude and relevance of expected increase in sea level rise (SLR) is uncertain for marine and terrestrial species that are reliant on coastal habitat for foraging, resting or breeding. To address this, we showcase the use of a low-cost approach to assess the impacts of SLR on sea turtles under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SLR scenarios on different sea turtle nesting rookeries worldwide. The study considers seven sea turtle rookeries with five nesting species, categorized from vulnerable to critically endangered including leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), olive ridley turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas). Our approach combines freely available digital elevation models for continental and remote island beaches across different ocean basins with projections of field data and SLR. Our case study focuses on five of the seven living sea turtle species. Under moderate climate change scenarios, by 2050 it is predicted that at some sea turtle nesting habitats 100% will be flooded, and under an extreme scenario many sea turtle rookeries could vanish. Overall, nesting beaches with low slope and those species nesting at open beaches such as leatherback and loggerheads sea turtles might be the most vulnerable by future SLR scenarios.

Turtles in Malaysia: A Review of Conservation Status and a Call for Research

Simple Summary

Turtles are threatened all over the world. Malaysia has 24 species of turtles. This review focuses on current conservation status and some requirements for sustainability. We propose integrating concepts of ecology and molecular biology to provide almost comprehensive turtle reviews in Malaysia.

Abstract

Approximately 356 species of turtles inhabit saltwater and freshwater habitats globally, except in Antarctica. Twenty-four species of turtles have been reported in Malaysia, four of which are sea turtles. The state of Terengganu harbored the highest number of turtles, with 17 different reported species. Based on the IUCN Red List, 29% of turtle species in Malaysia are critically endangered. In comparison, another 25% are classified as endangered. Likewise, CITES reported that 67% of Malaysia’s turtles are threatened, while 25% are classified as critically endangered. This review discusses the checklists, molecular genetics work, conservation status, recent trends, and recommendations for future research. Factors contributing to their population declines and current endangered status are also discussed.

Resilient Eggs: Highly Successful Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting Sites Vary in Their Characteristics

Sea turtle nest success, defined as the number of eggs in a nest that successfully hatch and emerge, is closely linked to environmental conditions. Interacting biotic and abiotic factors influence hatching and hatchling emergence success. To date, combinations of multiple factors interacting together, which result in highly successful sea turtle nests are not well understood. Using 25 years of historic nest data and local expert experience, we identified five historically successful loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beaches (hotspots) along the Florida (United States) Atlantic coast and measured nest environments along with the nest success. Principal component analysis was used to reduce 12 environmental variables so that the relative contributions of sand characteristics, nest temperatures, sand moisture, and nest location were considered. The nest environments differed among nesting beaches and were broadly segregated into two distinct climates: subtropical (hot and humid) and warm-temperate (warm and dry). We found that nests at subtropical sites, compared with warm-temperate sites, were characterized by environmental gradients in contrasting ways. Nest locations were predominantly mid-beach in subtropical sites but clustered at higher elevations and closer to the base of the dune at warm-temperate climate sites. Collectively, highly successful nest hotspots represent a mosaic of abiotic factors providing conditions that promote successful hatching and emergence. This new perspective on consistently successful loggerhead nesting beach traits demonstrate that the key traits of sea turtle nesting habitat vary with prevailing climate type and should be managed accordingly.

Shift in demographic structure and increased reproductive activity of loggerhead turtles in the French Mediterranean Sea revealed by long-term monitoring

Climate-induced environmental changes are profoundly impacting marine ecosystems and altering species distribution worldwide. Migratory organisms, including sea turtles, are expected to be particularly sensitive to these variations. Here, we studied changes in the size structure and reproductive activity of loggerhead turtles in the French Mediterranean over 30 years. Overall, there was a significant increase in the size of observed loggerheads between 1990 and 2020. However, this increase was only significant during the breeding/nesting season (May to September) and was driven by the increased presence of adults. Furthermore, nesting activity along the French coast was detected in 2002 for the first time in more than 50 years, and has become frequent after 2014, with nests discovered every year. The number of eggs laid as well as incubation duration and success varied among sites but fell within the range reported at established Mediterranean nesting sites. These observations, along with recent reports of breeding activity and evidence of significant sea surface warming, suggest that the north-western Mediterranean basin has become increasingly suitable to loggerhead turtles. We postulate that this range expansion is the result of climate change and propose that emerging nesting activity in France should be closely monitored and guarded against human activities.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Population Viability of Sea Turtles in the Context of Global Warming

Sea turtles present a model for the potential impacts of climate change on imperiled species, with projected warming generating concern about their persistence. Various sea turtle life-history traits are affected by temperature; most strikingly, warmer egg incubation temperatures cause female-biased sex ratios and higher embryo mortality. Predictions of sea turtle resilience to climate change are often focused on how resulting male limitation or reduced offspring production may affect populations. In the present article, by reviewing research on sea turtles, we provide an overview of how temperature impacts on incubating eggs may cascade through life history to ultimately affect population viability. We explore how sex-specific patterns in survival and breeding periodicity determine the differences among offspring, adult, and operational sex ratios. We then discuss the implications of skewed sex ratios for male-limited reproduction, consider the negative correlation between sex ratio skew and genetic diversity, and examine consequences for adaptive potential. Our synthesis underscores the importance of considering the effects of climate throughout the life history of any species. Lethal effects (e.g., embryo mortality) are relatively direct impacts, but sublethal effects at immature life-history stages may not alter population growth rates until cohorts reach reproductive maturity. This leaves a lag during which some species transition through several stages subject to distinct biological circumstances and climate impacts. These perspectives will help managers conceptualize the drivers of emergent population dynamics and identify existing knowledge gaps under different scenarios of predicted environmental change.

Identifying global favourable habitat for early juvenile loggerhead sea turtles

Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) nest globally on sandy beaches, with hatchlings dispersing into the open ocean. Where these juveniles go and what habitat they rely on remains a critical research question for informing conservation priorities. Here a high-resolution Earth system model is used to determine the biophysical geography of favourable ocean habitat for loggerhead sea turtles globally during their first year of life on the basis of ocean current transport, thermal constraints and food availability (defined here as the summed lower trophic level carbon biomass). Dispersal is simulated from eight major nesting sites distributed across the globe in four representative years using particle tracking. Dispersal densities are identified for all turtles, and for the top 15% 'best-fed' turtles that have not encountered metabolically unfavourable temperatures. We find that, globally, rookeries are positioned to disperse to regions where the lower trophic biomass is greatest within loggerheads' thermal range. Six out of the eight nesting sites are associated with strong coastal boundary currents that rapidly transport hatchlings to subtropical-subpolar gyre boundaries; narrow spatial migratory corridors exist for 'best-fed' turtles associated with these sites. Two other rookeries are located in exceptionally high-biomass tropical regions fuelled by natural iron fertilization. 'Best-fed' turtles tend to be associated with lower temperatures, highlighting the inverse relationship between temperature and lower trophic biomass. The annual mean isotherms between 20°C and the thermal tolerance of juvenile loggerheads are a rough proxy for favourable habitat for loggerheads from rookeries associated with boundary currents. Our results can be used to constrain regions for conservation efforts for each subpopulation, and better identify foraging habitat for this critical early life stage.

Congenital Malformations in Sea Turtles: Puzzling Interplay between Genes and Environment

Simple Summary

Congenital malformations can lead to embryonic mortality in many species, and sea turtles are no exception. Genetic and/or environmental alterations occur during early development in the embryo, and may produce aberrant phenotypes, many of which are incompatible with life. Causes of malformations are multifactorial; genetic factors may include mutations, chromosomal aberrations, and inbreeding effects, whereas non-genetic factors may include nutrition, hyperthermia, low moisture, radiation, and contamination. It is possible to monitor and control some of these factors (such as temperature and humidity) in nesting beaches, and toxic compounds in feeding areas, which can be transferred to the embryo through their lipophilic properties. In this review, we describe possible causes of different types of malformations observed in sea turtle embryos, as well as some actions that may help reduce embryonic mortality.

Abstract

The completion of embryonic development depends, in part, on the interplay between genetic factors and environmental conditions, and any alteration during development may affect embryonic genetic and epigenetic regulatory pathways leading to congenital malformations, which are mostly incompatible with life. Oviparous reptiles, such as sea turtles, that produce numerous eggs in a clutch that is buried on the beach provide an opportunity to study embryonic mortality associated with malformations that occur at different times during development, or that prevent the hatchling from emerging from the nest. In sea turtles, the presence of congenital malformations frequently leads to mortality. A few years ago, a detailed study was performed on external congenital malformations in three species of sea turtles from the Mexican Pacific and Caribbean coasts, the hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata (n = 23,559 eggs), the green turtle, Chelonia mydas (n = 17,690 eggs), and the olive ridley, Lepidochelys olivacea (n = 20,257 eggs), finding 63 types of congenital malformations, of which 38 were new reports. Of the three species, the olive ridley showed a higher incidence of severe anomalies in the craniofacial region (49%), indicating alterations of early developmental pathways; however, several malformations were also observed in the body, including defects in the carapace (45%) and limbs (33%), as well as pigmentation disorders (20%), indicating that deviations occurred during the middle and later stages of development. Although intrinsic factors (i.e., genetic mutations or epigenetic modifications) are difficult to monitor in the field, some environmental factors (such as the incubation temperature, humidity, and probably the status of feeding areas) are, to some extent, less difficult to monitor and/or control. In this review, we describe the aetiology of different malformations observed in sea turtle embryos, and provide some actions that can reduce embryonic mortality.

Operational Protocols for the Use of Drones in Marine Animal Research

The use of drones to study marine animals shows promise for the examination of numerous aspects of their ecology, behaviour, health and movement patterns. However, the responses of some marine phyla to the presence of drones varies broadly, as do the general operational protocols used to study them. Inconsistent methodological approaches could lead to difficulties comparing studies and can call into question the repeatability of research. This review draws on current literature and researchers with a wealth of practical experience to outline the idiosyncrasies of studying various marine taxa with drones. We also outline current best practice for drone operation in marine environments based on the literature and our practical experience in the field. The protocols outlined herein will be of use to researchers interested in incorporating drones as a tool into their research on marine animals and will help form consistent approaches for drone-based studies in the future.

A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species

Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change

Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.

Sporadic nesting reveals long distance colonisation in the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta)

The colonisation of new suitable habitats is crucial for species survival at evolutionary scale under changing environmental conditions. However, colonisation potential may be limited by philopatry that facilitates exploiting successful habitats across generations. We examine the mechanisms of long distance dispersal of the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) by analysing 40 sporadic nesting events in the western Mediterranean. The analysis of a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA and 7 microsatellites of 121 samples from 18 of these nesting events revealed that these nests were colonising events associated with juveniles from distant populations feeding in nearby foraging grounds. Considering the temperature-dependent sex determination of the species, we simulated the effect of the incubation temperature and propagule pressure on a potential colonisation scenario. Our results indicated that colonisation will succeed if warm temperature conditions, already existing in some of the beaches in the area, extend to the whole western Mediterranean. We hypothesize that the sporadic nesting events in developmental foraging grounds may be a mechanism to overcome philopatry limitations thus increasing the dispersal capabilities of the species and the adaptability to changing environments. Sporadic nesting in the western Mediterranean can be viewed as potential new populations in a scenario of rising temperatures.

Ecological vulnerability assessment for ecological conservation and environmental management

Identifying ecological vulnerable regions is a significant aspect in ecological conservation and environmental management. This paper presents a first attempt to provide a prototype framework that can assess ecological vulnerability and evaluate potential impacts of natural, social, economic, environmental pollution, and human health elements on ecological vulnerability with integrating spatial analysis of Geographic Information System (GIS) method and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). A general ecological vulnerability index was constructed to describe the vulnerability status in an ecological hotspot of China. The assessment results of this study confirm the poor ecological vulnerability in China that only 1.32% of the China's population lives in not vulnerable ecosystem. A very high percentage (98.68%) of Chinese with 1.34 billion people lives in vulnerable and highly vulnerable area. This situation is mainly caused by increasing population pressure, exhausted nature resources, extensive economic growth, severe environmental pollution, insufficient environmental protection investment, and accelerating population aging. The spatial comparison indicates that spatial disparity existed in China with the central and northwestern provinces showing higher ecological vulnerability than the northeastern and southern provinces. The results of ecological vulnerability assessment can support effective guidance for mid- or long-term ecologic management. The developed framework can be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support ecological managers and government with decision-making. With available robust climate change models, future research might incorporate climate change into the ecological vulnerability framework.

Conservation hotspots for marine turtle nesting in the United States based on coastal development

Coastal areas provide nesting habitat for marine turtles that is critical for the persistence of their populations. However, many coastal areas are highly affected by coastal development, which affects the reproductive success of marine turtles. Knowing the extent to which nesting areas are exposed to these threats is essential to guide management initiatives. This information is particularly important for coastal areas with both high nesting density and dense human development, a combination that is common in the United States. We assessed the extent to which nesting areas of the loggerhead (Caretta caretta), the green (Chelonia mydas), the Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii), and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the continental United States are exposed to coastal development and identified conservation hotspots that currently have high reproductive importance and either face high exposure to coastal development (needing intervention), or have low exposure to coastal development, and are good candidates for continued and future protection. Night-time light, housing, and population density were used as proxies for coastal development and human disturbance. About 81.6% of nesting areas were exposed to housing and human population, and 97.8% were exposed to light pollution. Further, most (>65%) of the very high- and high-density nesting areas for each species/subpopulation, except for the Kemp's ridley, were exposed to coastal development. Forty-nine nesting sites were selected as conservation hotspots; of those high-density nesting sites, 49% were sites with no/low exposure to coastal development and the other 51% were exposed to high-density coastal development. Conservation strategies need to account for ~66.8% of all marine turtle nesting areas being on private land and for nesting sites being exposed to large numbers of seasonal residents.

Temporal changes in artificial light exposure of marine turtle nesting areas

Artificial light at night poses a significant threat to multiple taxa across the globe. In coastal regions, artificial lighting close to marine turtle nesting beaches is disruptive to their breeding success. Prioritizing effective management of light pollution requires an understanding of how the light exposure of nesting areas changes over time in response to changing temporal and spatial distributions of coastal development. We analyzed multitemporal, satellite night-light data, in combination with linear mixed model analysis, to determine broadscale changes in artificial light exposure at Australian marine turtle nesting areas between 1993 and 2010. We found seven marine turtle management units (MU), from five species, have experienced significant increases in light exposure over time, with flatback turtles nesting in east Australia experiencing the fastest increases. The remaining 12 MUs showed no significant change in light exposure. Unchanging MUs included those previously identified as having high exposure to light pollution (located in western Australia and southern Queensland), indicating that turtles in these areas have been potentially exposed to high light levels since at least the early nineties. At a finer geographic scale (within-MU), nine MUs contained nesting areas with significant increases in light exposure. These nesting areas predominantly occurred close to heavily industrialized coastal areas, thus emphasizing the importance of rigorous light management in industry. Within all MUs, nesting areas existed where light levels were extremely low and/or had not significantly increased since 1993. With continued coastal development, nesting females may shift to these darker/unchanging 'buffer' areas in the future. This is valuable information that informs our understanding of the capacity and resilience of marine turtles faced with coastal development: an understanding that is essential for effective marine turtle conservation.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Forecasting range expansion into ecological traps: climate-mediated shifts in sea turtle nesting beaches and human development

Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) was ca. 1000 km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty-five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (>1500 km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140 000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6-12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding-site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long-term conservation strategies.