Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales

Climate-Mediated Changes to Linked Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems across the Northeast Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

From canopy to seed: Loss of snow drives directional changes in forest composition

Climate change is altering the conditions for tree recruitment, growth, and survival, and impacting forest community composition. Across southeast Alaska, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, Callitropsis nootkatensis (Alaska yellow-cedar) is experiencing extensive climate change-induced canopy mortality due to fine-root death during soil freezing events following warmer winters and the loss of insulating snowpack. Here, we examine the effects of ongoing, climate-driven canopy mortality on forest community composition and identify potential shifts in stand trajectories due to the loss of a single canopy species. We sampled canopy and regenerating forest communities across the extent of C. nootkatensis decline in southeast Alaska to quantify the effects of climate, community, and stand-level drivers on C. nootkatensis canopy mortality and regeneration as well as postdecline regenerating community composition. Across the plot network, C. nootkatensis exhibited significantly higher mortality than co-occurring conifers across all size classes and locations. Regenerating community composition was highly variable but closely related to the severity of C. nootkatensis mortality. Callitropsis nootkatensis canopy mortality was correlated with winter temperatures and precipitation as well as local soil drainage, with regenerating community composition and C. nootkatensis regeneration abundances best explained by available seed source. In areas of high C. nootkatensis mortality, C. nootkatensis regeneration was low and replaced by Tsuga. Our study suggests that climate-induced forest mortality is driving alternate successional pathways in forests where C. nootkatensis was once a major component. These pathways are likely to lead to long-term shifts in forest community composition and stand dynamics. Our analysis fills a critical knowledge gap on forest ecosystem response and rearrangement following the climate-driven decline of a single species, providing new insight into stand dynamics in a changing climate. As tree species across the globe are increasingly stressed by climate change-induced alteration of suitable habitat, identifying the autecological factors contributing to successful regeneration, or lack thereof, will provide key insight into forest resilience and persistence on the landscape.

Long-term exposure to more frequent disturbances increases baseline carbon in some ecosystems: Mapping and quantifying the disturbance frequency-ecosystem C relationship

Disturbance regimes have a major influence on the baseline carbon that characterizes any particular ecosystem. Often regimes result in lower average regional baseline C (compared to those same systems if the disturbance processes were lessened/removed). However, in infrequently disturbed systems the role of disturbance as a “background” process that influences broad-scale, baseline C levels is often neglected. Long-term chronosequences suggest disturbances in these systems may serve to increase regional biomass C stocks by maintaining productivity. However, that inference has not been tested spatially. Here, the large forested system of southeast Alaska, USA, is utilized to 1) estimate baseline regional C stocks, 2) test the fundamental disturbance-ecosystem C relationship, 3) estimate the cumulative impact of disturbances on baseline C. Using 1491 ground points with carbon measurements and a novel way of mapping disturbance regimes, the relationship between total biomass C, disturbance exposure, and climate was analyzed statistically. A spatial model was created to determine regional C and compare different disturbance scenarios. In this infrequently disturbed ecosystem, higher disturbance exposure is correlated with higher biomass C, supporting the hypothesis that disturbances maintain productivity at broad scales. The region is estimated to potentially contain a baseline 1.21–1.52 Pg biomass C (when unmanaged). Removal of wind and landslides from the model resulted in lower net C stocks (-2 to -19% reduction), though the effect was heterogeneous on finer scales. There removal of landslides alone had a larger effect then landslide and wind combined removal. The relationship between higher disturbance exposure and higher biomass within the broad ecosystem (which, on average, has a very low disturbance frequency) suggest that disturbances can serve maintain higher levels of productivity in infrequently disturbed but very C dense ecosystems. Carbon research in other systems, especially those where disturbances are infrequent relative to successional processes, should consider the role of disturbances in maintaining baseline ecosystem productivity.

A foundation of ecology rediscovered: 100 years of succession on the William S. Cooper plots in Glacier Bay, Alaska

Understanding plant community succession is one of the original pursuits of ecology, forming some of the earliest theoretical frameworks in the field. Much of this was built on the long-term research of William S. Cooper, who established a permanent plot network in Glacier Bay, Alaska, in 1916. This study now represents the longest-running primary succession plot network in the world. Permanent plots are useful for their ability to follow mechanistic change through time without assumptions inherent in space-for-time (chronosequence) designs. After 100-yr, these plots show surprising variety in species composition, soil characteristics (carbon, nitrogen, depth), and percent cover, attributable to variation in initial vegetation establishment first noted by Cooper in the 1916-1923 time period, partially driven by dispersal limitations. There has been almost a complete community composition replacement over the century and general species richness increase, but the effective number of species has declined significantly due to dominance of Salix species which established 100-yr prior (the only remaining species from the original cohort). Where Salix dominates, there is no establishment of "later" successional species like Picea. Plots nearer the entrance to Glacier Bay, and thus closer to potential seed sources after the most recent glaciation, have had consistently higher species richness for 100 yr. Age of plots is the best predictor of soil N content and C:N ratio, though plots still dominated by Salix had lower overall N; soil accumulation was more associated with dominant species. This highlights the importance of contingency and dispersal in community development. The 100-yr record of these plots, including species composition, spatial relationships, cover, and observed interactions between species provides a powerful view of long-term primary succession.

Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001-2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

The location- and scale- specific correlation between temperature and soil carbon sequestration across the globe

Much research has been conducted to understand the spatial distribution of soil carbon stock and its temporal dynamics. However, an agreement has not been reached on whether increasing global temperature has a positive or negative feedback on soil carbon stocks. By analysing global maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) using a spherical wavelet analysis, it was found that the correlation between SOC and soil temperature at the regional scale was negative between 52° N and 40° S parallels and positive beyond this region. This was consistent with a few previous studies and it was assumed that the effect was most likely due to the temperature-dependent SOC formation (photosynthesis) and decomposition (microbial activities and substrate decomposability) processes. The results also suggested that the large SOC stocks distributed in the low-temperature areas might increase under global warming while the small SOC stocks found in the high-temperature areas might decrease accordingly. Although it remains unknown whether the potential increasing soil carbon stocks in the low-temperature areas can offset the loss of carbon stocks in the high-temperature areas, the location- and scale- specific correlations between SOC and temperature should be taken into account for modeling SOC dynamics and SOC sequestration management.

Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km². We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<-2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management.