Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

Precipitation and temperature timings underlying bioclimatic variables rearrange under climate change globally

Modeling how climate change may affect the potential distribution of species and communities typically utilizes bioclimatic variables. Distribution predictions rely on the values of the bioclimatic variable (e.g., precipitation of the wettest quarter). However, the ecological meaning of most of these variables depends strongly on the within-year position of a specific climate period (SCP), for example, the wettest quarter of the year, which is often overlooked. Our aim was to determine how the within-year position of the SCPs would shift (SCP shift) in reaction to climate change in a global context. We calculated the deviations of the future within-year position of the SCPs relative to the reference period. We used four future time periods, four scenarios, and four CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to provide an ensemble of expectations regarding SCP shifts and locate the spatial hotspots of the shifts. Also, the size and frequency of the SCP shifts were subjected to linear models to evaluate the importance of the impact modeler's decision on time period, scenario, and GCM. We found ample examples of SCP shifts exceeding 2 months, with 6-month shifts being predicted as well. Many areas in the tropics are expected to experience both temperature and precipitation-related shifts, but precipitation-related shifts are abundantly predicted for the temperate and arctic zones as well. The combined shifts at the Equator reinforce the likelihood of the emergence of no-analogue climates there. The shifts become more pronounced as time and scenario progress, while GCMs could not be ranked in a clear order in this respect. For most SCPs, the modeler's decision on the GCM was the least important, while the choice of time period was typically more important than the choice of scenario. Future predictive distribution models should account for SCP shifts and incorporate the phenomenon in the modeling efforts.

Annual-perennial lifespan variation in Chaenactis douglasii suggests a drought escape strategy in warm-arid environments

PREMISE

Intraspecific variation in drought resistance traits, such as drought escape, appear to be frequent within wild, ruderal forb species. Understanding how these traits are arrayed across the landscape, particularly in association with climate, is critical to developing forbs for wildland restoration programs. Use of forbs is requisite for maintaining biological diversity and ecological services.

METHODS

Using 6074 greenhouse-grown Chaenactis douglasii seedlings from 95 wild, seed-sourced populations across the western United States, we recorded bolting phenology and estimated genome size using flow cytometry. Mixed-effects regression models were used to assess whether climate of seed origin was predictive for bolting phenology and genome size.

RESULTS

Variation in bolting, reflecting an annual vs. perennial lifespan in this species, was observed in 8.7% of the plants, with bolting plants disproportionately occurring in locations with warm, arid climates. Populations with increasing heat and aridity were positively correlated with observed bolting (r = 0.61, p < 0.0001). About one-third (22%) of the total (61%) lifespan variation was attributed to seed source climate and annual heat moisture index, a measure of aridity. Genome size had no significant effect on bolting. Projected climate modeling for mid-century (2041-2070) supports an increasing occurrence of annual lifespan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses support a drought escape, bet-hedging strategy in C. douglasii. Populations exposed to greater aridity exhibited a higher proportion of individuals with an annual lifespan. Drought escape leading to an annual lifespan can affect how seeds are propagated and deployed for climate-informed restoration.

Higher thermal plasticity in flowering phenology increases flowering output

Ongoing climate change poses an increasing threat to biodiversity. To avoid decline or extinction, species need to either adjust or adapt to new environmental conditions or track their climatic niches across space. In sessile organisms such as plants, phenotypic plasticity can help maintain fitness in variable and even novel environmental conditions and is therefore likely to play an important role in allowing them to survive climate change, particularly in the short term. Understanding a species' response to rising temperature is crucial for planning well-targeted and cost-effective conservation measures. We sampled seeds of three Hypericum species (H. maculatum, H. montanum, and H. perforatum), from a total of 23 populations originating from different parts of their native distribution areas in Europe. We grew them under four different temperature regimes in a greenhouse to simulate current and predicted future climatic conditions in the distribution areas. We measured flowering start, flower count, and subsequent seed weight, allowing us to study variations in the thermal plasticity of flowering phenology and its relation to fitness. Our results show that individuals flowered earlier with increasing temperature, while the degree of phenological plasticity varied among species. More specifically, the plasticity of H. maculatum varied depending on population origin, with individuals from the leading range edge being less plastic. Importantly, we show a positive relationship between higher plasticity and increased flower production, indicating adaptive phenological plasticity. The observed connection between plasticity and fitness supports the idea that plasticity may be adaptive. This study underlines the need for information on plasticity for predicting species' potential to thrive under global change and the need for studies on whether higher phenotypic plasticity is currently being selected as natural populations experience a rapidly changing climate.

Local climate and vernalization sensitivity predict the latitudinal patterns of flowering onset in the crop wild relative Linum bienne Mill

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The timing of flowering onset is often correlated with latitude, indicative of climatic gradients. Flowering onset in temperate species commonly requires exposure to cold temperatures, known as vernalization. Hence, population differentiation of flowering onset with latitude might reflect adaptation to the local climatic conditions experienced by populations.

METHODS

Within its western range, seeds from Linum bienne populations (the wild relative of cultivated Linum usitatissimum) were used to describe the latitudinal differentiation of flowering onset to determine its association with the local climate of the population. A vernalization experiment including different crop cultivars was used to determine how vernalization accelerates flowering onset, in addition to the vernalization sensitivity response among populations and cultivars. Additionally, genetic differentiation of L. bienne populations along the latitudinal range was scrutinized using microsatellite markers.

KEY RESULTS

Flowering onset varied with latitude of origin, with southern populations flowering earlier than their northern counterparts. Vernalization reduced the number of days to flowering onset, but vernalization sensitivity was greater in northern populations compared with southern ones. Conversely, vernalization delayed flowering onset in the crop, exhibiting less variation in sensitivity. In L. bienne, both flowering onset and vernalization sensitivity were better predicted by the local climate of the population than by latitude itself. Microsatellite data unveiled genetic differentiation of populations, forming two groups geographically partitioned along latitude.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistent finding of latitudinal variation across experiments suggests that both flowering onset and vernalization sensitivity in L. bienne populations are under genetic regulation and might depend on climatic cues at the place of origin. The association with climatic gradients along latitude suggests that the climate experienced locally drives population differentiation of the flowering onset and vernalization sensitivity patterns. The genetic population structure suggests that past population history could have influenced the flowering initiation patterns detected, which deserves further work.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

A genotype × environment experiment reveals contrasting response strategies to drought between populations of a keystone species (Artemisia tridentata; Asteraceae)

Western North America has been experiencing persistent drought exacerbated by climate change for over two decades. This extreme climate event is a clear threat to native plant communities. Artemisia tridentata is a keystone shrub species in western North America and is threatened by climate change, urbanization, and wildfire. A drought Genotype × Environment (G × E) experiment was conducted to assess phenotypic plasticity and differential gene expression in A. tridentata. The G × E experiment was performed on diploid A. tridentata seedlings from two populations (one from Idaho, USA and one from Utah, USA), which experience differing levels of drought stress during the summer months. Photosynthetic data, leaf temperature, and gene expression levels were compared between treatments and populations. The Utah population maintained higher photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic efficiency than the Idaho population under drought stress. The Utah population also exhibited far greater transcriptional plasticity than the Idaho population and expressed genes of response pathways distinct from those of the Idaho population. Populations of A. tridentata differ greatly in their drought response pathways, likely due to differences in response pathways that have evolved under distinct climatic regimes. Epigenetic processes likely contribute to the observed differences between the populations.

Climate lags and genetics determine phenology in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Spatiotemporal patterns of phenology may be affected by mosaics of environmental and genetic variation. Environmental drivers may have temporally lagged impacts, but patterns and mechanisms remain poorly known. We combine multiple genomic, remotely sensed, and physically modeled datasets to determine the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of canopy phenology in quaking aspen, a widespread clonal dioecious tree species with diploid and triploid cytotypes. We show that over 391 km² of southwestern Colorado: greenup date, greendown date, and growing season length vary by weeks and differ across sexes, cytotypes, and genotypes; phenology has high phenotypic plasticity and heritabilities of 31-61% (interquartile range); and snowmelt date, soil moisture, and air temperature predict phenology, at temporal lags of up to 3 yr. Our study shows that lagged environmental effects are needed to explain phenological variation and that the effect of cytotype on phenology is obscured by its correlation with topography. Phenological patterns are consistent with responses to multiyear accumulation of carbon deficit or hydraulic damage.

Morphological responses of Bombax ceiba to habitat heterogeneity in Southwest China

In order to cope with environmental changes, plants constantly adjust their morphological characteristics in order to adapt to changing environment. In the present study, populations of Bombax ceiba from Mengla area and Yuanjiang area in Yunnan Province were selected as the research objects. Six tree structure factors, such as tree height and crown width, eight leaf trait factors, such as leaf area and leaf length, and several habitat factors, such as area topography, meteorology and soil nutrients, were measured. Structural equation model and variation decomposition method were applied to analyze the effects of various habitat factors on tree structure and leaf traits of B. ceiba, and to reveal its morphological responses to habitat heterogeneity. The results showed that there was a significant negative correlation between tree structure and leaf traits in the two study habitats (Mengla area and Yuanjiang area), and the correlation coefficient was −0.47 in Mengla area and −0.22 in Yuanjiang area. Both topographic and soil factors had positive effects on tree structure of the two habitats, and the topographic factors had a greater impact on tree structure than leaf traits. The main difference was that meteorological factors had a positive effect on tree structure of Mengla, but a negative effect on leaf traits, while Yuanjiang showed the opposite patterns. The variation analysis showed that the superposition of three environmental factors in Mengla area had a greater explanation power of tree structure and leaf traits than that in Yuanjiang area, and the topographic factors had the largest explanation power of tree structure in both areas, which reflected that fact that the characteristics of Mengla habitat imposed a greater influence on B. ceiba. The soil factors in Mengla area accounted for 20.1% of the leaf traits, while the meteorological factors in Yuanjiang area accounted for 11.6%. The results showed that leaf traits were sensitive to environmental differences. In general, the responses of B. ceiba to heterogeneous habitats is based on the specific performance of its resource utilization capacity. The research results can provide references for exploring the morphological responses of plants to heterogeneous habitats.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

A draft genome provides hypotheses on drought tolerance in a keystone plant species in Western North America threatened by climate change

Climate change presents distinct ecological and physiological challenges to plants as extreme climate events become more common. Understanding how species have adapted to drought, especially ecologically important nonmodel organisms, will be crucial to elucidate potential biological pathways for drought adaptation and inform conservation strategies. To aid in genome-to-phenome research, a draft genome was assembled for a diploid individual of Artemisia tridentata subsp. tridentata, a threatened keystone shrub in western North America. While this taxon has few genetic resources available and genetic/genomics work has proven difficult due to genetic heterozygosity in the past, a draft genome was successfully assembled. Aquaporin (AQP) genes and their promoter sequences were mined from the draft genome to predict mechanisms regulating gene expression and generate hypotheses on key genes underpinning drought response. Fifty-one AQP genes were fully assembled within the draft genome. Promoter and phylogenetic analyses revealed putative duplicates of A. tridentata subsp. tridentata AQPs which have experienced differentiation in promoter elements, potentially supporting novel biological pathways. Comparison with nondrought-tolerant congener supports enrichments of AQP genes in this taxon during adaptation to drought stress. Differentiation of promoter elements revealed that paralogues of some genes have evolved to function in different pathways, highlighting these genes as potential candidates for future research and providing critical hypotheses for future genome-to-phenome work.

Phylogeography of a widely distributed plant species reveals cryptic genetic lineages with parallel phenotypic responses to warming and drought conditions

To predict how widely distributed species will perform under future climate change, it is crucial to understand and reveal their underlying phylogenetics. However, detailed information about plant adaptation and its genetic basis and history remains scarce and especially widely distributed species receive little attention despite their putatively high adaptability. To examine the adaptation potential of a widely distributed species, we sampled the model plant Silene vulgaris across Europe. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed the offspring of these populations to a climate change scenario for central Europe and revealed the population structure through whole-genome sequencing. Plants were grown under two temperatures (18°C and 21°C) and three precipitation regimes (65, 75, and 90 mm) to measure their response in biomass and fecundity-related traits. To reveal the population genetic structure, ddRAD sequencing was employed for a whole-genome approach. We found three major genetic clusters in S. vulgaris from Europe: one cluster comprising Southern European populations, one cluster of Western European populations, and another cluster containing central European populations. Population genetic diversity decreased with increasing latitude, and a Mantel test revealed significant correlations between F ST and geographic distances as well as between genetic and environmental distances. Our trait analysis showed that the genetic clusters significantly differed in biomass-related traits and in the days to flowering. However, half of the traits showed parallel response patterns to the experimental climate change scenario. Due to the differentiated but parallel response patterns, we assume that phenotypic plasticity plays an important role for the adaptation of the widely distributed species S. vulgaris and its intraspecific genetic lineages.

The role of genome duplication in big sagebrush growth and fecundity

PREMISE

Adaptive traits can be dramatically altered by genome duplication. The study of interactions among traits, ploidy, and the environment are necessary to develop an understanding of how polyploidy affects niche differentiation and to develop restoration strategies for resilient native ecosystems.

METHODS

Growth and fecundity were measured in common gardens for 39 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) containing two subspecies and two ploidy levels. General linear mixed-effect models assessed how much of the trait variation could be attributed to genetics (i.e., ploidy and climatic adaptation), environment, and gene-environment interactions.

RESULTS

Growth and fecundity variation were explained well by the mixed models (80% and 91%, respectively). Much of the trait variation was attributed to environment, and 15% of variation in growth and 34% of variation in seed yield were attributed to genetics. Genetic trait variation was mostly attributable to ploidy, with much higher growth and seed production in diploids, even in a warm-dry environment typically dominated by tetraploids. Population-level genetic variation was also evident and was related to the climate of each population's origin.

CONCLUSIONS

Ploidy is a strong predictor growth and seed yield, regardless of common-garden environment. The superior growth and fecundity of diploids across environments raises the question as to how tetraploids can be more prevalent than diploids, especially in warm-dry environments. Two hypotheses that may explain the abundance of tetraploids on the landscape include selection for drought resistance at the seedling stage, and greater competitive ability in water uptake in the upper soil horizon.

Regional differences in rapid evolution during severe drought

Climate change is increasing drought intensity, threatening biodiversity. Rapid evolution of drought adaptations might be required for population persistence, particularly in rear-edge populations that may already be closer to physiological limits. Resurrection studies are a useful tool to assess adaptation to climate change, yet these studies rarely encompass the geographic range of a species. Here, we sampled 11 populations of scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis), collecting seeds across the plants' northern, central, and southern range to track trait evolution from the lowest to the greatest moisture anomaly over a 7-year period. We grew families generated from these populations across well-watered and terminal drought treatments in a greenhouse and quantified five traits associated with dehydration escape and avoidance. When considering pre-drought to peak-drought phenotypes, we find that later date of flowering evolved across the range of M. cardinalis, suggesting a shift away from dehydration escape. Instead, traits consistent with dehydration avoidance evolved, with smaller and/or thicker leaves evolving in central and southern regions. The southern region also saw a loss of plasticity in these leaf traits by the peak of the drought, whereas flowering time remained plastic across all regions. This observed shift in traits from escape to avoidance occurred only in certain regions, revealing the importance of geographic context when examining adaptations to climate change.

Population variation in the thermal response to climate change reveals differing sensitivity in a benthic shark

Many species with broad distributions are exposed to different thermal regimes which often select for varied phenotypes. This intraspecific variation is often overlooked but may be critical in dictating the vulnerability of different populations to environmental change. We reared Port Jackson shark (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) eggs from two thermally discrete populations (i.e. Jervis Bay and Adelaide) under each location's present-day mean temperatures, predicted end-of-century temperatures and under reciprocal-cross conditions to establish intraspecific thermal sensitivity. Rearing temperatures strongly influenced ṀO_{2 Max} and critical thermal limits, regardless of population, indicative of acclimation processes. However, there were significant population-level effects, such that Jervis Bay sharks, regardless of rearing temperature, did not exhibit differences in ṀO_{2 Rest} , but under elevated temperatures exhibited reduced maximum swimming activity with step-wise increases in temperature. In contrast, Adelaide sharks reared under elevated temperatures doubled their ṀO_{2 Rest} , relative to their present-day temperature counterparts; however, maximum swimming activity was not influenced. With respect to reciprocal-cross comparisons, few differences were detected between Jervis Bay and Adelaide sharks reared under ambient Jervis Bay temperatures. Similarly, juveniles (from both populations) reared under Adelaide conditions had similar thermal limits and swimming activity (maximum volitional velocity and distance) to each other, indicative of conserved acclimation capacity. However, under Adelaide temperatures, the ṀO_{2 Rest} of Jervis Bay sharks was greater than that of Adelaide sharks. This indicates that the energetics of cooler water population (Adelaide) is likely more thermally sensitive than that of the warmer population (Jervis Bay). While unique to elasmobranchs, these data provide further support that by treating species as static, homogeneous populations, we ignore the impacts of thermal history and intraspecific variation on thermal sensitivity. With climate change, intraspecific variation will manifest as populations move, demographics change or extirpations occur, starting with the most sensitive populations.

Early snowmelt and warmer, drier summers shrink postflowering transition times in subalpine wildflowers

Plant reproductive phenology-the timing of reproduction-is shifting rapidly with global climate change. Many studies focus on flowering responses to climate, but few investigate how postflowering processes, such as how quickly plants develop from flowering to seed dispersal, respond to environmental factors. We examined the climatic drivers of postflowering phenology in 28 species of western North American subalpine meadow plants over large spatial and temporal climate gradients. We took a Bayesian hierarchical approach to address whether and how climate influences the time it takes for wildflower populations to transition from flower to seed. Our previous work on the same species demonstrated that the initiation of flowering depends on snowmelt timing, with warmer temperatures and soil moisture also playing a role. Here, we found that for the majority of the flowering community, the same climate drivers also affected the time it takes to move from flowering to seed dispersal. Climate-sensitive species shortened flower-seed transitions when snow melted earlier, temperatures were warmer, and/or soil dried down more quickly-conditions we expect with higher frequency under climate change. Our work underscores the fact that predicting the impact of climate change on plant reproductive phenology demands empirical data on phases beyond flowering. Additionally, it suggests that some species face a future in which multiple environmental factors will push them towards more rapid transitions from flowering to postflowering phases, with potential effects on plants themselves and the many animal associates that rely on them, including frugivores and seed predators.

Spatial grain of adaptation is much finer than ecoregional-scale common gardens reveal

Adaptive variation among plant populations must be known for effective conservation and restoration of imperiled species and predicting their responses to a changing climate. Common-garden experiments, in which plants sourced from geographically distant populations are grown together such that genetic differences may be expressed, have provided much insight on adaptive variation. Common-garden experiments also form the foundation for climate-based seed-transfer guidelines. However, the spatial scale at which population differentiation occurs is rarely addressed, leaving a critical information gap for parameterizing seed-transfer guidelines and assessing species' climate vulnerability. We asked whether adaptation was evident among populations of a foundational perennial within a single "empirical" seed-transfer zone (based on previous common-garden findings evaluating very distant populations) but different "provisional" seed zones (groupings of areas of similar climate and are not parameterized from common-garden data). Seedlings from three populations originating from similar conditions within an intermediate elevation were planted into gardens nearby at the same elevation, or 250-450 m higher or lower in elevation and 0.4-25 km away. Substantial variation was observed between gardens in survival (ranging 2%-99%), foliar crown volume (7.8-22.6 dm3), and reproductive effort (0%-65%), but not among the three transplanted populations. The between garden variation was inversely related to climatic differences between the gardens and seed-source populations, specifically the site differences in maximum-minimum annual temperatures. Results suggest that substantial site-specificity in adaptation can occur at finer scales than is accounted for in empirical seed-transfer guidance when the guidance is derived from broadscale common-garden studies. Being within the same empirical seed zone, geographic unit, and even within 10 km distance may not qualify as "local" in the context of seed transfer. Moving forward, designing common-garden experiments so that they allow for testing the scale of adaptation will help in translating the resulting seed-transfer guidance to restoration projects.

The soil microbial community alters patterns of selection on flowering time and fitness-related traits in Ipomoea purpurea

PREMISE

Plant flowering time plays an important role in plant fitness and thus evolutionary processes. Soil microbial communities are diverse and have a large impact, both positive and negative, on the host plant. However, owing to few available studies, how the soil microbial community may influence the evolutionary response of plant populations is not well understood. Here we sought to uncover whether belowground microbial communities act as an agent of selection on flowering and growth traits in the common morning glory, Ipomoea purpurea.

METHODS

We performed a controlled greenhouse experiment in which genetic lines of I. purpurea were planted into either sterilized soils or in soils that were sterilized and inoculated with the microbial community from original field soil. We could thus directly test the influence of alterations to the microbial community on plant growth, flowering, and fitness and assess patterns of selection in both soil microbial environments.

RESULTS

A more complex soil microbial community resulted in larger plants that produced more flowers. Selection strongly favored earlier flowering when plants were grown in the complex microbial environment than compared to sterilized soil. We also uncovered a pattern of negative correlational selection on growth rate and flowering time, indicating that selection favored different combinations of growth and flowering traits in the simplified versus complex soil community.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these results suggest the soil microbial community is a selective agent on flowering time and ultimately that soil microbial community influences important plant evolutionary processes.

Adaptation of Forest Trees to Rapidly Changing Climate

Climate change leads to global drought-induced stress and increased plant mortality. Tree species living in rapidly changing climate conditions are exposed to danger and must adapt to new climate conditions to survive. Trees respond to changes in the environment in numerous ways. Physiological modulation at the seed stage, germination strategy and further development are influenced by many different factors. We review forest abiotic threats (such as drought and heat), including biochemical responses of plants to stress, and biotic threats (pathogens and insects) related to global warming. We then discus the varied adaptations of tree species to changing climate conditions such as seed resistance to environmental stress, improved by an increase in temperature, affinity to specific fungal symbionts, a wide range of tolerance to abiotic environmental conditions in the offspring of populations occurring in continental climate, and germination strategies closely linked to the ecological niche of the species. The existing studies do not clearly indicate whether tree adaptations are shaped by epigenetics or phenology and do not define the role of phenotypic plasticity in tree development. We have created a juxtaposition of literature that is useful in identifying the factors that play key roles in these processes. We compare scientific evidence that species distribution and survival are possible due to phenotypic plasticity and thermal memory with studies that testify that trees’ phenology depends on phylogenesis, but this issue is still open. It is possible that studies in the near future will bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms through which trees adapt to stressful conditions, especially in the context of epigenetic memory in long-lived organisms, and allow us to minimize the harmful effects of climatic events by predicting tree species’ responses or by developing solutions such as assisted migration to mitigate the consequences of these phenomena.

Freezing resistance, safety margins, and survival vary among big sagebrush populations across the western United States

PREMISE

Physiological responses to temperature extremes are considered strong drivers of species' demographic responses to climate variability. Plants are typically classified as either avoiders or tolerators in their freezing-resistance mechanism, but a gradient of physiological-threshold freezing responses may exist among individuals of a species. Moreover, adaptive significance of physiological freezing responses is poorly characterized, particularly under warming conditions that relax selection on cold hardiness.

METHODS

Freezing responses were measured in winter and again for new foliage in spring for 14 populations of Artemisia tridentata collected throughout its range and planted in a warm common garden. The relationships of the freezing responses to survival were evaluated in the warm garden and in two colder gardens.

RESULTS

Winter and spring freezing resistance were not correlated and appeared to be under differing selection regimes, as evident in correlations with different population climate of origin variables. All populations resisted considerably lower temperatures in winter than in spring, with populations from more continental climates showing narrower freezing safety margins (difference in temperatures at which ice-nucleation occurs and 50% reduction in chlorophyll fluorescence occurs) in spring. Populations with greater winter freezing resistance had lower survivorship in the warmest garden, while populations with greater spring freezing resistance had lower survivorship in a colder garden.

CONCLUSIONS

These survivorship patterns relative to physiological thresholds suggest excess freezing resistance may incur a survival cost that likely relates to a trade-off between carbon gain and freezing resistance during critical periods of moisture availability. This cost has implications for seed moved from cooler to warmer environments and for plants growing in warming environments.

ΔTraitSDMs: species distribution models that account for local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity

Improving our understanding of species ranges under rapid climate change requires application of our knowledge of the tolerance and adaptive capacity of populations to changing environmental conditions. Here, we describe an emerging modelling approach, ΔTraitSDM, which attempts to achieve this by explaining species distribution ranges based on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of fitness-related traits measured across large geographical gradients. The collection of intraspecific trait data measured in common gardens spanning broad environmental clines has promoted the development of these new models - first in trees but now rapidly expanding to other organisms. We review, explain and harmonize the main findings from this new generation of models that, by including trait variation over geographical scales, are able to provide new insights into future species ranges. Overall, ΔTraitSDM predictions generally deliver a less alarming message than previous models of species distribution under new climates, indicating that phenotypic plasticity should help, to a considerable degree, some plant populations to persist under climate change. The development of ΔTraitSDMs offers a new perspective to analyse intraspecific variation in single and multiple traits, with the rationale that trait (co)variation and consequently fitness can significantly change across geographical gradients and new climates.

Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net

Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive. This study harnesses 894,392 digital herbarium records and 1,959 in situ observations to produce the first assessment of the effects of a large number (25) of climate parameters on the flowering time of a very large number (2,468) of angiosperm taxa throughout North America. In addition, we compare the predictive capacity of phenological models constructed from the collection dates of herbarium specimens vs. repeated in situ observations of individual plants using a regression approach-elastic net regularization-that has not previously been used in phenological modeling, but exhibits several advantages over ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. When herbarium-derived data and in situ phenological observations were used to predict flowering onset, the multivariate models based on each of these data sources had similar predictive capacity (R²  = 0.27). Further, apart from mean maximum temperature (TMAX), the two best predictors of flowering time have not commonly been included in phenological models: the number of frost-free days (NFFD) and the quantity of precipitation as snow (PAS) in the seasons preceding flowering. By vetting these models across an unprecedented number of taxa, this work demonstrates a new approach to phenological modeling.

Climate-based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm-dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed-effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population-source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder-adapted populations by mid-century. However, these warm-adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid-century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate-based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush.

Pollination in a new climate: Assessing the potential influence of flower temperature variation on insect pollinator behaviour

Climate change has the potential to enhance or disrupt biological systems, but currently, little is known about how organism plasticity may facilitate adaptation to localised climate variation. The bee-flower relationship is an exemplar signal-receiver system that may provide important insights into the complexity of ecological interactions in situations like this. For example, several studies on bee temperature preferences show that bees prefer to collect warm nectar from flowers at low ambient temperatures, but switch their preferences to cooler flowers at ambient temperatures above about 30° C. We used temperature sensor thermal probes to measure the temperature of outdoor flowers of 30 plant species in the Southern regions of the Australian mainland, to understand how different species could modulate petal temperature in response to changes in ambient temperature and, potentially, influence the decision-making of bees in the flowering plant's favour. We found that flower petal temperatures respond in different ways to changing ambient temperature: linearly increasing or decreasing relative to the ambient temperature, dynamically changing in a non-linear manner, or varying their temperature along with the ambient conditions. For example, our investigation of the difference between ambient temperature and petal temperature (ΔT), and ambient temperature, revealed a non-linear relationship for Erysimum linifolium and Polygala grandiflora that seems suited to bee temperature preferences. The temperature profiles of species like Hibertia vestita and H. obtusifolia appear to indicate that they do not have a cooling mechanism. These species may therefore be less attractive to bee pollinators in changing climatic conditions with ambient temperatures increasingly above 30° C. This may be to the species' detriment when insect-pollinator mediated selection is considered. However, we found no evidence that flower visual characteristics used by bees to identify flowers at close range, such as colour or shape, were straightforward modulators of floral temperature. We could not identify any clear link to phylogenetic history and temperature modulation either. Mapping our test flower distribution on the Australian continent however, indicates a potential clustering that suggests different flower responses may constitute adaptations to local conditions. Our study proposes a framework for modelling the potential effects of climate change and floral temperature on flower pollination dynamics at local and global scales.

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range.

Characterizing the contribution of plasticity and genetic differentiation to community-level trait responses to environmental change

The match between functional trait variation in communities and environmental gradients is maintained by three processes: phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation (intraspecific processes), and species turnover (interspecific). Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting that intraspecific variation might have a potentially large role in driving functional community composition and response to environmental change. However, empirical evidence quantifying the respective importance of phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation relative to species turnover is still lacking. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment using a common herbaceous plant species (Oxalis montana) among low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation sites to first quantify the contributions of plasticity and genetic differentiation in driving intraspecific variation in three traits: height, specific leaf area, and leaf area. We next compared the contributions of these intraspecific drivers of community trait–environment matching to that of species turnover, which had been previously assessed along the same elevational gradient. Plasticity was the dominant driver of intraspecific trait variation across elevation in all traits, with only a small contribution of genetic differentiation among populations. Local adaptation was not detected to a major extent along the gradient. Fitness components were greatest in O. montana plants with trait values closest to the local community‐weighted means, thus supporting the common assumption that community‐weighted mean trait values represent selective optima. Our results suggest that community‐level trait responses to ongoing climate change should be mostly mediated by species turnover, even at the small spatial scale of our study, with an especially small contribution of evolutionary adaptation within species.