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Xu B, Wu X. A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 363:121408. [PMID: 38852411 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Xu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuefei Wu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
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2
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Liang J, Wang W, Cai Q, Li X, Zhu Z, Zhai Y, Li X, Gao X, Yi Y. Prioritizing conservation efforts based on future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14204. [PMID: 37855159 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 09/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. To develop conservation strategies, many previous researchers used a single method that considered individual factors; a few combined 2 factors. Primarily, these studies focused on identifying climate refugia or climatically connected and spatially fixed areas, ignoring the range shifting process of animals. We quantified future habitat availability (based on species occurrence, climate data, land cover, and elevation) and accessibility (based on climate velocity) under climate change (4 scenarios) of migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB). Then, we assessed species' range-shift potential and identified conservation priority areas for migratory birds in the 2050s with a network analysis. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10 km/year) and high (i.e., ≥ 10 km/year) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable habitat, respectively. Even with low (i.e., 0-5 km/year) climate velocity, 50.15% of climate-velocity-identified destinations were less available than their source habitats. Based on our integration of habitat availability and accessibility, we identified a few areas of critical importance for conservation, mainly in Sichuan and the middle to lower reaches of the YRB. Overall, we identified the differences between habitat availability and accessibility in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species' range shifts, which must be considered to identify conservation priority areas. Our method informs forecasting of climate-driven distribution shifts and conservation priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Liang
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Wanting Wang
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Qing Cai
- Hunan Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xin Li
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Ziqian Zhu
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Yeqing Zhai
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xiaodong Li
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xiang Gao
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Yuru Yi
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
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Siddique MT, García Molinos J. Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 916:169948. [PMID: 38211866 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Revised: 11/27/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 01/13/2024]
Abstract
As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Taimur Siddique
- Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan 060-0810
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21W11, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan 001-0021.
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Heikkinen RK, Aapala K, Leikola N, Aalto J. Quantifying the climate exposure of priority habitat constrained to specific environmental conditions: Boreal aapa mires. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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5
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Verniest F, Galewski T, Julliard R, Guelmami A, Le Viol I. Coupling future climate and land‐use projections reveals where to strengthen the protection of Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Fabien Verniest
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Thomas Galewski
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Romain Julliard
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
| | - Anis Guelmami
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Isabelle Le Viol
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
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Elsen PR, Saxon EC, Simmons BA, Ward M, Williams BA, Grantham HS, Kark S, Levin N, Perez-Hammerle KV, Reside AE, Watson JEM. Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:918-935. [PMID: 34719077 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Revised: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul R Elsen
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, New York, USA
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Earl C Saxon
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - B Alexander Simmons
- Global Development Policy Center, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Michelle Ward
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- WWF Australia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- The School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Brooke A Williams
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- The School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hedley S Grantham
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, New York, USA
| | - Salit Kark
- The Biodiversity Research Group, The School of Biological Sciences, NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Noam Levin
- Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
- Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Katharina-Victoria Perez-Hammerle
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - April E Reside
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - James E M Watson
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- The School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Semenchuk P, Moser D, Essl F, Schindler S, Wessely J, Gattringer A, Dullinger S. Future Representation of Species’ Climatic Niches in Protected Areas: A Case Study With Austrian Endemics. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.685753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.
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Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2015552118. [PMID: 34462347 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2015552118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO2 Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr-1 (no CO2 effects/with CO2 effects; "+" denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr-1 ("-" denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr-1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr-1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr-1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO2 emissions [C. R. Schwalm et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656-19657 (2020)].
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9
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McKone MJ, Hernández DL. Community‐level assisted migration for climate‐appropriate prairie restoration. Restor Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mark J. McKone
- Department of Biology Carleton College 1 North College Street Northfield MN 55057 U.S.A
| | - Daniel L. Hernández
- Department of Biology Carleton College 1 North College Street Northfield MN 55057 U.S.A
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Abstract
The southern boreal forests of North America are susceptible to large changes in composition as temperate forests or grasslands may replace them as the climate warms. A number of mechanisms for this have been shown to occur in recent years: (1) Gradual replacement of boreal trees by temperate trees through gap dynamics; (2) Sudden replacement of boreal overstory trees after gradual understory invasion by temperate tree species; (3) Trophic cascades causing delayed invasion by temperate species, followed by moderately sudden change from boreal to temperate forest; (4) Wind and/or hail storms removing large swaths of boreal forest and suddenly releasing temperate understory trees; (4) Compound disturbances: wind and fire combination; (5) Long, warm summers and increased drought stress; (6) Insect infestation due to lack of extreme winter cold; (7) Phenological disturbance, due to early springs, that has the potential to kill enormous swaths of coniferous boreal forest within a few years. Although most models project gradual change from boreal forest to temperate forest or savanna, most of these mechanisms have the capability to transform large swaths (size range tens to millions of square kilometers) of boreal forest to other vegetation types during the 21st century. Therefore, many surprises are likely to occur in the southern boreal forest over the next century, with major impacts on forest productivity, ecosystem services, and wildlife habitat.
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11
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Topographic diversity as an indicator for resilience of terrestrial protected areas against climate change. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
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12
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Climate-Biome Envelope Shifts Create Enormous Challenges and Novel Opportunities for Conservation. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11091015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Research Highlights: We modeled climate-biome envelopes at high resolution in the Western Great Lakes Region for recent and future time-periods. The projected biome shifts, in conjunction with heterogeneous distribution of protected land, may create both great challenges for conservation of particular ecosystems and novel conservation opportunities. Background and Objectives: Climate change this century will affect the distribution and relative abundance of ecological communities against a mostly static background of protected land. We developed a climate-biome envelope model using a priori climate-vegetation relationships for the Western Great Lakes Region (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan USA and adjacent Ontario, Canada) to predict potential biomes and ecotones—boreal forest, mixed forest, temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie—for a recent climate normal period (1979–2013) and future conditions (2061–2080). Materials and Methods: We analyzed six scenarios, two representative concentration pathways (RCP)—4.5 and 8.5, and three global climate models to represent cool, average, and warm scenarios to predict climate-biome envelopes for 2061–2080. To assess implications of the changes for conservation, we analyzed the amount of land with climate suited for each of the biomes and ecotones both region-wide and within protected areas, under current and future conditions. Results: Recent biome boundaries were accurately represented by the climate-biome envelope model. The modeled future conditions show at least a 96% loss in areas suitable for the boreal and mixed forest from the region, but likely gains in areas suitable for temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie. The analysis also showed that protected areas in the region will most likely lose most or all of the area, 18,692 km2, currently climatically suitable for boreal forest. This would represent an enormous conservation loss. However, conversely, the area climatically suitable for prairie and prairie–forest border within protected areas would increase up to 12.5 times the currently suitable 1775 km2. Conclusions: These results suggest that retaining boreal forest in potential refugia where it currently exists and facilitating transition of some forests to prairie, oak savanna, and temperate forest should both be conservation priorities in the northern part of the region.
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Hoffmann S, Beierkuhnlein C. Climate change exposure and vulnerability of the global protected area estate from an international perspective. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Hoffmann
- Department of Biogeography University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
| | - Carl Beierkuhnlein
- Department of Biogeography University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEERUniversity of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany
- Geographical Institute University of BayreuthGIB Bayreuth Germany
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14
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Blackmore A. Climate change and the ownership of game: A concern for fenced wildlife areas. KOEDOE: AFRICAN PROTECTED AREA CONSERVATION AND SCIENCE 2020. [DOI: 10.4102/koedoe.v62i1.1594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
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15
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Elsen PR, Monahan WB, Dougherty ER, Merenlender AM. Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:eaay0814. [PMID: 32596440 PMCID: PMC7299617 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay0814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul R. Elsen
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY 10460, USA
| | - William B. Monahan
- USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Eric R. Dougherty
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Adina M. Merenlender
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
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16
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Parks SA, Carroll C, Dobrowski SZ, Allred BW. Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2944-2955. [PMID: 31961042 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Revised: 01/06/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, 'human exposure', that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non-protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non-protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non-protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, CA, USA
| | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Brady W Allred
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
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17
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Stralberg D, Carroll C, Nielsen SE. Toward a climate‐informed North American protected areas network: Incorporating climate‐change refugia and corridors in conservation planning. Conserv Lett 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Diana Stralberg
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research Orleans California United States
| | - Scott E. Nielsen
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
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Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0229984. [PMID: 32163476 PMCID: PMC7067427 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2019] [Accepted: 02/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered species listed by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) HARRIS J (2013). The largest population of this species is distributed mainly in China and Russia, which is called continental population SU L (2012)–Curt D (1996). This population is migratory, which migrates from its breeding range located in Northeast China and Southern Russia, to the wintering range in the south of China to spend the winter every year. The breeding range of this species is critical for red-crowned crane to survive and maintain its population. Previous studies showed the negative effects of habitat loss and degradation on the breeding area of red-crowned crane Ma Z (1998), Claire M (2019). Climate change may also threat the survival of this endangered species. Previous studies investigated the impacts of climate change on the breeding range or wintering range in China Wu (2012), [1]. However, no study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the whole breeding range of this species. Here, we used bioclimatic niche modeling to predict the potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under current climate conditions and project onto future climate change scenarios. Our results show that the breeding range of the continental population of red-crowned crane will shift northward over this century and lose almost all of its current actual breeding range. The climate change will also change the country owning the largest portion of breeding range from China to Russia, suggesting that Russia should take more responsibility to preserve this endangered species in the future.
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19
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Heikkinen RK, Leikola N, Aalto J, Aapala K, Kuusela S, Luoto M, Virkkala R. Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change. Sci Rep 2020; 10:1678. [PMID: 32015382 PMCID: PMC6997200 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-58638-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2019] [Accepted: 01/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Risto K Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Aalto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.,Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kaisu Aapala
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Saija Kuusela
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland
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20
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Hoffmann S, Irl SDH, Beierkuhnlein C. Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Nat Commun 2019; 10:4787. [PMID: 31636257 PMCID: PMC6803628 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12603-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2019] [Accepted: 09/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world's terrestrial PAs (n = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Hoffmann
- Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany.
| | - Severin D H Irl
- Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
- Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University, Altenhoeferallee 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Carl Beierkuhnlein
- Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
- Geographical Institute of the University of Bayreuth, GIB, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
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21
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Botello F, Sánchez-Cordero V, Pérez-Cirera V, Villaseñor E, Escobar N, Rhodes A, Vidal O, Bellot M. WITHDRAWN: Designing optimal conservation area networks under climate change in Mexico. J Nat Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2018.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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22
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Parks SA, Dobrowski SZ, Shaw JD, Miller C. Living on the edge: trailing edge forests at risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sean A. Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Rocky Mountain Research Station US Forest Service 790 E. Beckwith Avenue Missoula Montana 59801 USA
| | - Solomon Z. Dobrowski
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula Montana 59812 USA
| | - John D. Shaw
- Forest Inventory and Analysis Rocky Mountain Research Station 507 25th Street Ogden Utah 84322 USA
| | - Carol Miller
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Rocky Mountain Research Station US Forest Service 790 E. Beckwith Avenue Missoula Montana 59801 USA
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23
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Patrício AR, Varela MR, Barbosa C, Broderick AC, Catry P, Hawkes LA, Regalla A, Godley BJ. Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:522-535. [PMID: 30567014 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2018] [Accepted: 09/30/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana R Patrício
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Miguel R Varela
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Castro Barbosa
- Institute of Biodiversity and Protected Areas of Guinea-Bissau, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | | | - Paulo Catry
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Lucy A Hawkes
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Aissa Regalla
- Institute of Biodiversity and Protected Areas of Guinea-Bissau, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | - Brendan J Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
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24
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Carroll C, Parks SA, Dobrowski SZ, Roberts DR. Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:5318-5331. [PMID: 29963741 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2018] [Revised: 06/07/2018] [Accepted: 06/21/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, California, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - David R Roberts
- Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Arctic Institute of North America, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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25
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Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:441-457. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.03.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2017] [Revised: 01/09/2018] [Accepted: 03/27/2018] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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26
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Berteaux D, Ricard M, St-Laurent MH, Casajus N, Périé C, Beauregard F, de Blois S. Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates. Sci Rep 2018; 8:4623. [PMID: 29545528 PMCID: PMC5854666 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominique Berteaux
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada.
| | - Marylène Ricard
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
- Centre for Northern Studies, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Nicolas Casajus
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Catherine Périé
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, 2700, rue Einstein, C.1.200, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Frieda Beauregard
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.,McGill School of Environment, 3534 University Street, Montreal, QC, H3A 2A7, Canada
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27
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Fredston-Hermann A, Gaines SD, Halpern BS. Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2018; 1429:5-17. [PMID: 29411385 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2017] [Revised: 11/30/2017] [Accepted: 12/14/2017] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexa Fredston-Hermann
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
| | - Steven D Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California.,National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, California.,Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
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