Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia

Identifying climate refugia for wild yaks (Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau

Climate change is threatening fragile alpine ecosystems and their resident ungulates, particularly the wild yak (Bos mutus) that inhabits alpine areas between the tree line and glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau. Although wild yaks tend to shift habitats in response to changes in climatic factors, the precise impacts of climate change on their habitat distribution and climate refugia remain unclear. Based on over 1000 occurrence records, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was applied to simulate habitat ranges in the last glacial maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene, current stage, and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2070. Three habitat patches were identified as climate refugia for wild yaks that have persisted from the LGM to the present and are projected to persist until 2070. These stable areas account for approximately 64% of the current wild yak habitat extent and are sufficiently large to support viable populations. The long-term persistence of these climate refugia areas is primarily attributed to the unique alpine environmental features of the Tibetan Plateau, where relatively stable arid or semi-arid climates are maintained, and a wide range of forage resource supplies are available. However, habitat loss by 2070 caused by insufficient protection is predicted to lead to severe fragmentation in the southeastern and northwestern Kunlun, Hengduan, central-western Qilian, and southern Tanggula-northern Himalaya Mountains. Habitat disturbance has also been caused by increasing anthropogenic effects in the southern Tanggula and northern Himalaya Mountains. We suggest that sufficient protection, transboundary cooperation, and community involvement are required to improve wild yak conservation efforts. Our combined modeling method (MaxEnt-Zonation-Linkage Mapper-FRAGSTAT) can be utilized to identify priority areas and linkages between habitat patches while assessing the conservation efficiency of protected areas and analyzing the coupled relationship between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the habitat distribution of endangered species.

Community similarity and species overlap between habitats provide insight into the deep reef refuge hypothesis

The deep reef refuge hypothesis (DRRH) postulates that mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) may provide a refuge for shallow coral reefs (SCRs). Understanding this process is an important conservation tool given increasing threats to coral reefs. To establish a better framework to analyze the DRRH, we analyzed stony coral communities in American Sāmoa across MCEs and SCRs to describe the community similarity and species overlap to test the foundational assumption of the DRRH. We suggest a different approach to determine species as depth specialists or generalists that changes the conceptual role of MCEs and emphasizes their importance in conservation planning regardless of their role as a refuge or not. This further encourages a reconsideration of a broader framework for the DRRH. We found 12 species of corals exclusively on MCEs and 183 exclusively on SCRs with another 63 species overlapping between depth zones. Of these, 19 appear to have the greatest potential to serve as reseeding species. Two additional species are listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, Acropora speciosa and Fimbriaphyllia paradivisa categorized as an occasional deep specialist and a deep exclusive species, respectively. Based on the community distinctiveness and minimal species overlap of SCR and MCE communities, we propose a broader framework by evaluating species overlap across coral reef habitats. This provides an opportunity to consider the opposite of the DRRH where SCRs support MCEs.

Marine biodiversity refugia in a climate-sensitive subarctic shelf

The subarctic shelf of the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is one of the world's most productive marine environments, exposed to drastic climate changes characterized by extreme fluctuations in temperature, sea ice concentration, timing, and duration. These climatic changes elicit profound responses in species distribution, abundance, and community composition. Here, we examined the patterns of alpha and temporal beta diversity of 159 marine taxa (66 vertebrates and 93 invertebrate species) from 29 years (1990-2018) of species observations from the NOAA bottom trawl surveys in the EBS. Based on these data, we identified geographically distinct refugial zones in the northern and southern regions of the middle shelf, defined by high species richness and similarity in community species composition over time. These refugial zones harbor higher frequencies of occurrence for representative taxa relative to the regions outside of refugia. We also explored the primary environmental factors structuring marine biodiversity distributions, which underpinned the importance of the winter sea ice concentration to alpha and temporal beta diversity. The spatial biodiversity distributions between high and low winter sea ice regimes highlighted contrasting signals. In particular, the latter showed elevated species richness compared to the former. Further, the temporal beta diversity between the high and low winter sea ice periods underpinned an overall increase in the compositional similarity of marine communities in the EBS. Despite these spatiotemporal differences in biodiversity distributions, the identified refugia represent safe havens of marine biodiversity in the EBS. Distinguishing these areas can help facilitate conservation and management efforts under accelerated and ongoing climatic changes.

Alpine treeline ecotones are potential refugia for a montane pine species threatened by bark beetle outbreaks

Warming-induced mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) outbreaks have caused extensive mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) throughout the species' range. In the highest mountains where WBP occur, they cross alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) where growth forms transition from trees to shrub-like krummholz, some of which survived recent MPB outbreaks. This observation motivated the hypothesis that ATEs are refugia for WBP because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack and have the potential to produce viable seed. To test this hypothesis, we surveyed WBP mortality along transects from the ATE edge (locally highest krummholz WBP) downslope into the forest and, to distinguish if survival mechanisms are unique to ATEs, across other forest ecotones (OFEs) from the edge of WBP occurrence into the forest. We replicated this design at 10 randomly selected sites in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains. We also surveyed reproduction in a subset of ATE sites. Mortality was nearly absent in upper ATEs (mean ± SE percent dead across all sites of 0.03% ± 0.03% 0-100 m from the edge and 14.1% ± 1.7% 100-500 m from the edge) but was above 20% along OFEs (21.4 ± 5.2% 0-100 m and 32.4 ± 2.7% 100-500 m from the edge). We observed lower reproduction in upper ATEs (16 ± 9.9 cones/ha and 12.9 ± 5.3 viable seeds/cone 0-100 m from the edge) compared to forests below (317.1 ± 64.4 cones/ha and 32.5 ± 2.5 viable seeds/cone 100-500 m from the edge). Uniquely high WBP survival supports the hypothesis that ATEs serve as refugia because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack. However, low reproduction suggests ATE refugia function over longer time periods. Beyond our WBP system, we propose that plant populations in marginal environments are candidate refugia if distinct phenotypes result in reduced disturbance impacts.

There is an inverse relationship between the capacity of climate change refugia and species adaptation potential

There is an inverse relationship between species adaptation potential (green/curved line) and refugial capacity (blue/light triangle). The ability of refugia species to adapt/acclimatize to future stressors (red/dark triangle), assuming this is within their physiological capabilities, depends on the refugial capacity of the refugia in which they live. The more effective a refugium, the lower the chance of its species adapting/acclimatizing. This article is a commentary on Kapsensberg & Cyronak, 25, 3201-3214.