Research priorities for natural ecosystems in a changing global climate

Panel-based assessment of ecosystem condition as a platform for adaptive and knowledge driven management

Ecosystems are subjected to increasing exposure to multiple anthropogenic drivers. This has led to the development of national and international accounting systems describing the condition of ecosystems, often based on few, highly aggregated indicators. Such accounting systems would benefit from a stronger theoretical and empirical underpinning of ecosystem dynamics. Operational tools for ecosystem management require understanding of natural ecosystem dynamics, consideration of uncertainty at all levels, means for quantifying driver-response relationships behind observed and anticipated future trajectories of change, and an efficient and transparent synthesis to inform knowledge-driven decision processes. There is hence a gap between highly aggregated indicator-based accounting tools and the need for explicit understanding and assessment of the links between multiple drivers and ecosystem condition as a foundation for informed and adaptive ecosystem management. We describe here an approach termed PAEC (Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition) for combining quantitative and qualitative elements of evidence and uncertainties into an integrated assessment of ecosystem condition at spatial scales relevant to management and monitoring. The PAEC protocol is founded on explicit predictions, termed phenomena, of how components of ecosystem structure and functions are changing as a result of acting drivers. The protocol tests these predictions with observations and combines these tests to assess the change in the condition of the ecosystem as a whole. PAEC includes explicit, quantitative or qualitative, assessments of uncertainty at different levels and integrates these in the final assessment. As proofs-of-concept we summarize the application of the PAEC protocol to a marine and a terrestrial ecosystem in Norway.

Climate Change Causes Salinity To Become Determinant in Shaping the Microeukaryotic Spatial Distribution among the Lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau

Climate change greatly affects lake microorganisms in arid and semiarid zones, which alters ecosystem functions and the ecological security of lakes. However, the responses of lake microorganisms, especially microeukaryotes, to climate change are poorly understood. Here, using 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) high-throughput sequencing, we investigated the distribution patterns of microeukaryotic communities and whether and how climate change directly or indirectly affected the microeukaryotic communities on the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau. Our results showed that climate change, as the main driving force of lake change, drives salinity to become a determinant of the microeukaryotic community among the lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau. Salinity shapes the diversity and trophic level of the microeukaryotic community and further affects lake carbon cycling. Co-occurrence network analysis further revealed that increasing salinity reduced the complexity but improved the stability of microeukaryotic communities and changed ecological relationships. Meanwhile, increasing salinity enhanced the importance of deterministic processes in microeukaryotic community assembly, and the dominance of stochastic processes in freshwater lakes transformed into deterministic processes in salt lakes. Furthermore, we established lake biomonitoring and climate sentinel models by integrating microeukaryotic information, which would provide substantial improvements to our predictive ability of lake responses to climate change. IMPORTANCE Our findings have important implications for understanding the distribution patterns and the driving mechanisms of microeukaryotic communities among the lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau and whether and how climate change directly or indirectly affects microeukaryotic communities. Our study also establishes the groundwork to use the lake microbiome for the assessment of aquatic ecological health and climate change, which is critical for ecosystem management and for projecting the ecological consequences of future climate warming.

Multiscale ecosystem service synergies/trade-offs and their driving mechanisms in the Han River Basin, China: implications for watershed management

The synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs) and their driving mechanisms are hot topics in ecology and geography research. In recent years, the Han River Basin (HRB) has been continuously impacted by high-intensity urban sprawl and the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which have posed severe threats to the ecology and regional stability along the route. It is thus critical to study the ES synergies/trade-offs and their driving mechanisms. Based on the InVEST model and the value coefficient method, four vital types of ESs in the HRB, i.e., carbon sequestration (CS), food supply (FS), net primary productivity (NPP), and water yield (WY), were evaluated at town, county, and sub-watershed scales. Then, the Pearson correlation analysis was adopted to quantify the interrelationship among different ESs. Finally, the ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographical detector model (GDM) were applied to reveal the driving mechanisms of the ES synergies/trade-offs. The results showed that (1) apart from NPP, which increased at a rate of 7.54 gC·m^-2·a^-1 during 2000-2018, the other three types of ESs in the HRB deteriorated, with WY almost halving. (2) While CS, FS, and WY tended to exhibit high synergistic relationships, NPP showed mostly trade-off relationships, and the evaluation scale did not affect those main relationships. (3) Precipitation is the strongest driving force for the ES synergies/trade-offs in the HRB, and natural factors are generally more influential than socioeconomic factors on the ES synergies/trade-offs. This study warns of the deteriorating ecological condition of the HRB and provides empirical evidence for the synergistic enhancement of regional ESs and the optimization of ecological management policies.

Perspectives on socio-ecological studies in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Socio-ecology studies the relationships between human activities and natural systems and their importance in management and public policy. Our objective was to analyse how published papers in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) perform socio-ecological studies and compare them between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. To do this, we used the Scopus platform as a source for searching and obtaining scientific papers about socio-ecological studies conducted in countries from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We calculated the number (n) of papers published per year and classified them using the main subject areas of the SCImago Journal & Country Rank database. Then, we analysed whether papers included specific recommendations for natural system management, nature conservation, policies or governance structures, or science in general. Besides, we studied whether the papers addressed socio-ecological studies related to flora and fauna and from what specific group of organisms or systems. Data were compared using the chi-square (χ ²) test (Pearson p < 0.005). A total of 467 papers were analysed, where 34% were from the Southern Hemisphere (mainly Argentina, Australia, Chile, and South Africa) and 66% from the Northern Hemisphere (mainly the USA, Canada, and Spain). The Northern Hemisphere (mainly North America and Europe) played a major role in the socio-ecological knowledge exchange than the Southern Hemisphere (South America and Africa). The results showed socio-ecological studies focused mainly on generating management recommendations in social and environmental science fields. The number of studies coming from the Northern Hemisphere was significantly higher than those from the Southern Hemisphere. Most of them were conducted at a local level (e.g., watersheds or human settlements) in three different systems (i) terrestrial (e.g., forests or grasslands), (ii) freshwater (e.g., rivers or streams) and (iii) marine (e.g., coastlines or seas). Most of the studies (70%) were conducted in production systems, where the majority included livestock (mainly bovine) and aquatic fisheries (e.g., salmon, artisanal coastal fishing, or trout). Most vegetation papers (65%) were on native forests. Papers on wildlife made up 30% of all animal-related studies, with mammals, birds, and marine invertebrates (such as collars) being the most extensively researched species. This work highlighted the socio-ecological approach that was used in the analysed countries with greater HDI to develop management options for natural systems.

Revealing the dominant factors of vegetation change in global ecosystems

In the context of climate change, revealing the causes of significant changes in ecosystems will help maintain ecosystem stability and achieve sustainability. However, the dominant influencing factors of different ecosystems in different months on a global scale are not clear. We used Ordinary Least Squares Model and Mann–Kendall test to detect the significant changes (p &lt; 0.05) of ecosystem on a monthly scale from 1981 to 2015. And then multi-source data, residual analysis and partial correlation method was used to distinguish the impact of anthropogenic activities and dominant climate factors. The result showed that: (1) Not all significant green areas in all months were greater than the browning areas. Woodland had a larger greening area than farmland and grassland, except for January, May, and June, and a larger browning area except for September, November, and December. (2) Anthropogenic activities are the leading factors causing significant greening in ecosystems. However, their impact on significant ecosystem browning was not greater than that of climate change on significant ecosystem greening in all months. (3) The main cause of the ecosystem’s significant greening was temperature. Along with temperature, sunshine duration played a major role in the significant greening of the woodland. The main causes of significant farmland greening were precipitation and soil moisture. Temperature was the main factor that dominated the longest month of significant browning of grassland and woodland. Temperature and soil moisture were the main factors that dominated the longest month of significant browning of farmland. Our research reveals ecosystem changes and their dominant factors on a global scale, thereby supporting the sustainable ecosystem management.

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Long-term changes in populations of rainforest birds in the Australia Wet Tropics bioregion: A climate-driven biodiversity emergency

Many authors have suggested that the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change worldwide is significantly higher than in most other ecosystems. Despite the extensive variety of studies predicting severe impacts of climate change globally, few studies have empirically validated the predicted changes in distribution and population density. Here, we used 17 years (2000–2016) of standardised bird monitoring across latitudinal/elevational gradients in the rainforest of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to assess changes in local abundance and elevational distribution. We used relative abundance in 1977 surveys across 114 sites ranging from 0-1500m above sea level and utilised a trend analysis approach (TRIM) to investigate elevational shifts in abundance of 42 species. The local abundance of most mid and high elevation species has declined at the lower edges of their distribution by >40% while lowland species increased by up to 190% into higher elevation areas. Upland-specialised species and regional endemics have undergone dramatic population declines of almost 50%. The “Outstanding Universal Value” of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, one of the most irreplaceable biodiversity hotspots on Earth, is rapidly degrading. These observed impacts are likely to be similar in many tropical montane ecosystems globally.

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Drought effects on invertebrate metapopulation dynamics and quasi-extinction risk in an intermittent river network

Ecological communities can remain stable in the face of disturbance if their constituent species have different resistance and resilience strategies. In turn, local stability scales up regionally if heterogeneous landscapes maintain spatial asynchrony across discrete populations-but not if large-scale stressors synchronize environmental conditions and biological responses. Here, we hypothesized that droughts could drastically decrease the stability of invertebrate metapopulations both by filtering out poorly adapted species locally, and by synchronizing their dynamics across a river network. We tested this hypothesis via multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models on spatially replicated, long-term data describing aquatic invertebrate communities and hydrological conditions in a set of temperate, lowland streams subject to seasonal and supraseasonal drying events. This quantitative approach allowed us to assess the influence of local (flow magnitude) and network-scale (hydrological connectivity) drivers on invertebrate long-term trajectories, and to simulate near-future responses to a range of drought scenarios. We found that fluctuations in species abundances were heterogeneous across communities and driven by a combination of hydrological and stochastic drivers. Among metapopulations, increasing extent of dry reaches reduced the abundance of functional groups with low resistance or resilience capacities (i.e. low ability to persist in situ or recolonize from elsewhere, respectively). Our simulations revealed that metapopulation quasi-extinction risk for taxa vulnerable to drought increased exponentially as flowing habitats contracted within the river network, whereas the risk for taxa with resistance and resilience traits remained stable. Our results suggest that drought can be a synchronizing agent in riverscapes, potentially leading to regional quasi-extinction of species with lower resistance and resilience abilities. Better recognition of drought-driven synchronization may increase realism in species extinction forecasts as hydroclimatic extremes continue to intensify worldwide.

Clair C, Coristine L, Higgs E, Smith R, Pellatt M, Beaty C, Cheskey E, Cooke SJ, Crawford L, Davis R, Forbes G, Gadallah F(Z, Kendall P, Mandrak N, Moola F, Parker S, Quayle J, Ray JC, Richardson K, Smith K, Snider J, Smol JP, Sutherland WJ, Vallillee A, White L, Woodley A. Emerging issues for protected and conserved areas in Canada

Horizon scanning is increasingly used in conservation to systematically explore emerging policy and management issues. We present the results of a horizon scan of issues likely to impact management of Canadian protected and conserved areas over the next 5–10 years. Eighty-eight individuals participated, representing a broad community of academics, government and nongovernment organizations, and foundations, including policymakers and managers of protected and conserved areas. This community initially identified 187 issues, which were subsequently triaged to 15 horizon issues by a group of 33 experts using a modified Delphi technique. Results were organized under four broad categories: ( i) emerging effects of climate change in protected and conserved areas design, planning, and management (i.e., large-scale ecosystem changes, species translocation, fire regimes, ecological integrity, and snow patterns); ( ii) Indigenous governance and knowledge systems (i.e., Indigenous governance and Indigenous knowledge and Western science); ( iii) integrated conservation approaches across landscapes and seascapes (i.e., connectivity conservation, integrating ecosystem values and services, freshwater planning); and ( iv) early responses to emerging cumulative, underestimated, and novel threats (i.e., management of cumulative impacts, declining insect biomass, increasing anthropogenic noise, synthetic biology). Overall, the scan identified several emerging issues that require immediate attention to effectively reduce threats, respond to opportunities, and enhance preparedness and capacity to react.

Reanalysis datasets outperform other gridded climate products in vegetation change analysis in peripheral conservation areas of Central Asia

Global environmental research requires long-term climate data. Yet, meteorological infrastructure is missing in the vast majority of the world’s protected areas. Therefore, gridded products are frequently used as the only available climate data source in peripheral regions. However, associated evaluations are commonly biased towards well observed areas and consequently, station-based datasets. As evaluations on vegetation monitoring abilities are lacking for regions with poor data availability, we analyzed the potential of several state-of-the-art climate datasets (CHIRPS, CRU, ERA5-Land, GPCC-Monitoring-Product, IMERG-GPM, MERRA-2, MODIS-MOD10A1) for assessing NDVI anomalies (MODIS-MOD13Q1) in two particularly suitable remote conservation areas. We calculated anomalies of 156 climate variables and seasonal periods during 2001–2018, correlated these with vegetation anomalies while taking the multiple comparison problem into consideration, and computed their spatial performance to derive suitable parameters. Our results showed that four datasets (MERRA-2, ERA5-Land, MOD10A1, CRU) were suitable for vegetation analysis in both regions, by showing significant correlations controlled at a false discovery rate < 5% and in more than half of the analyzed areas. Cross-validated variable selection and importance assessment based on the Boruta algorithm indicated high importance of the reanalysis datasets ERA5-Land and MERRA-2 in both areas but higher differences and variability between the regions with all other products. CHIRPS, GPCC and the bias-corrected version of MERRA-2 were unsuitable and not important in both regions. We provide evidence that reanalysis datasets are most suitable for spatiotemporally consistent environmental analysis whereas gauge- or satellite-based products and their combinations are highly variable and may not be applicable in peripheral areas.