Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Deterministic responses of biodiversity to climate change through exotic species invasions

Biodiversity is increasingly threatened by local extinction under global climate change. This may reflect direct effects of climate on poorly adapted native species or increased impacts of exotic species in these conditions, but their relative importance is poorly understood. By examining global occurrence records of 142 plant species found in the Yangtze River Valley, we found that the climatic niches of exotic species differed from those of natives, mainly reflecting exotics being most common in warmer, drier and more isothermal climates in their native ranges. These differences in climatic niches, especially temperature, predicted invasion intensity in 459 plots along a 1,800-km transect in the Yangtze River Valley. On the basis of this strong match between model predictions and field survey results, we predict that invasions will probably be more intense in future climatic conditions, especially from warming at the coldest sites. The direct negative effect of warming on native diversity was larger than the indirect effects mediated through increased invasions. However, moderate invasion increased communities' overall species diversity. More broadly, our study highlights the role of exotic species in the ecological response of regional biodiversity to global climate change.

Impact of high temperature and drought stress on the microbial community in wolf spiders

High temperatures and drought present significant abiotic challenges that can limit the survival of many arthropods, including wolf spiders, which are ectothermic and play a crucial role in controlling pest populations. However, the impact of these stress factors on the microbiota of spiders remains poorly understood. In this study, we utilized 16 S rRNA gene sequencing to explore the diversity and composition of bacterial communities within Pardosa pseudoannulata under conditions of high temperature and drought stress. We found that Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria were the predominant bacterial phyla present. Analyses of alpha diversity indicated an increase in bacterial diversity under combined stress conditions, as reflected by various diversity indices such as Ace, Chao1, Shannon, and Simpson. Furthermore, co-occurrence network analysis highlighted intricate interactions among the microbial taxa (e.g., Enterobacter, Chitinophaga, and Eubacterium), revealing the adaptive complexity of the spider's microbiome to environmental stress. Functional prediction analysis suggested that combined stress conditions might enhance key metabolic pathways, particularly those related to oxidative phosphorylation and amino acid metabolism. Using Random Forest analysis, we determined that changes in three heat shock proteins were largely attributed to variations in bacterial communities, with Firmicutes being notably influential. Collectively, this in-depth analysis offers novel insights into the responses of microbial communities within spider microbiomes to combined abiotic stresses, providing valuable information for understanding extreme climate impacts and informing ecological management strategies.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

Predicting the distribution of potentially suitable habitat in China for Cirsium japonicum Fisch. ex DC. under future climate scenarios based on the R-optimized MaxEnt model

Cirsium japonicum contains a variety of medicinal components with good clinical efficacy. With the rapid changes in global climate, it is increasingly important to study the distribution of species habitats and the factors influencing their adaptability. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, we forecasted the present and future distribution regions of suitable habitats for C. japonicum under various climate scenarios. The outcome showed that under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. japonicum is 2,303,624 km2 and the highly suitable area is 79,117 km2. The distribution of C. japonicum is significantly influenced by key environmental factors such as temperature annual range, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation of the wettest month. In light of future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. japonicum is anticipated to progressively relocate toward the western and northern regions, leading to an expansion in the total suitable area. These findings offer valuable insights into the conservation, sustainable utilization, and standardized cultivation of wild C. japonicum resources.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on three Glires pests of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

BACKGROUND

The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).

RESULTS

The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

No evidence for niche competition in the extinction of the South American saber-tooth species

The end of South American isolation during the Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI) promoted the contact between South and North American saber-tooth forms that evolved in isolation. This contact may have driven saber-tooth species to a competitive interaction, resulting in the extinction of the South American saber-tooth form. Here, we used paleoclimatic data to compare the climatic niche of the saber-tooth forms Thylacosmilus atrox (from South America), Smilodon fatalis, and Smilodon populator (both originally from North America). We evaluated niche width, overlap, and similarity to infer potential geographic distribution overlap and competition between these North and South American predators. To do so, we obtained the climatic variables from sites where occurrence fossil records were available. Our results suggest that T. atrox had a narrower climatic niche compared to Smilodon species. Although we found a significant climatic niche overlap and similarity between S. fatalis and T. atrox, it seems unlikely that both species have co-occurred. Low niche overlap and similarity between T. atrox and S. populator dismiss competitive interaction between them. Moreover, climatic niche and low tolerance for environmental changes may have been the cause of the South American saber-tooth extinction.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world

Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Tropical butterflies use thermal buffering and thermal tolerance as alternative strategies to cope with temperature increase

Climate change poses a severe threat to many taxa, with increased mean temperatures and frequency of extreme weather events predicted. Insects can respond to high temperatures using behaviour, such as angling their wings away from the sun or seeking cool local microclimates to thermoregulate or through physiological tolerance. In a butterfly community in Panama, we compared the ability of adult butterflies from 54 species to control their body temperature across a range of air temperatures (thermal buffering ability), as well as assessing the critical thermal maxima for a subset of 24 species. Thermal buffering ability and tolerance were influenced by family, wing length, and wing colour, with Pieridae, and butterflies that are large or darker in colour having the strongest thermal buffering ability, but Hesperiidae, small, and darker butterflies tolerating the highest temperatures. We identified an interaction between thermal buffering ability and physiological tolerance, where species with stronger thermal buffering abilities had lower thermal tolerance, and vice versa. This interaction implies that species with more stable body temperatures in the field may be more vulnerable to increases in ambient temperatures, for example heat waves associated with ongoing climate change. Our study demonstrates that tropical species employ diverse thermoregulatory strategies, which is also reflected in their sensitivity to temperature extremes.

Himalayan Marmot (Marmota himalayana) Redistribution to High Latitudes under Climate Change

Climate warming and human activities impact the expansion and contraction of species distribution. The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) is a unique mammal and an ecosystem engineer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This pest aggravates grassland degradation and is a carrier and transmitter of plagues. Therefore, exploring the future distribution of Himalayan marmots based on climate change and human activities is crucial for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety. Here, a maximum entropy model was explored to forecast changes in the distribution and centroid migration of the Himalayan marmot in the 2050s and 2070s. The results implied that the human footprint index (72.80%) and altitude (16.40%) were the crucial environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan marmots, with moderately covered grassland being the preferred habitat of the Himalayan marmot. Over the next 30-50 years, the area of suitable habitat for the Himalayan marmot will increase slightly and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitudes in the northeastern part of the plateau. These results demonstrate the influence of climate change on Himalayan marmots and provide a theoretical reference for ecological management and plague monitoring.