The predictive value of the prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio in patients with acute pancreatitis

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Severity of the First Episode of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis

Purpose

Early detection of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) with exacerbation tendency is crucial for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable model for the early prediction of HLAP severity.

Patients and Methods

A total of 225 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from June 2012 to June 2023 were included. Patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) or moderate-severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP) groups. Independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP were identified through univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A nomogram was established through multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict this progression. The calibration, receiver operating characteristic(ROC), and clinical decision curves were employed to evaluate the model's consistency, differentiation, and clinical applicability. Clinical data of 93 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2015 to October 2022 were collected for external validation.

Results

White blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, serum creatinine, serum calcium, D-Dimer were identified as independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP in patients with HLAP and used to establish a predictive nomogram. The internally verified Harrell consistency index (C-index) was 0.908 (95% CI 0.867-0.948) and the externally verified C-index was 0.950 (95% CI 0.910-0.990). The calibration, ROC, and clinical decision curves showed this nomogram's good predictive ability.

Conclusion

We have established a nomogram that can help identify HLAP patients who are likely to develop MSAP or SAP at an early stage, with high discrimination and accuracy.

FAR in systemic lupus erythematosus: a potential biomarker of disease activity and lupus nephritis

The fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR), a novel inflammatory marker, has been studied in various diseases. However, the significance of FAR in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has not been fully elucidated. This study was to investigate the connection between FAR and SLE. A retrospective analysis of 154 SLE patients and 77 healthy individuals was performed. The clinical and laboratory data were reviewed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were conducted for FAR at baseline to predict disease activity and lupus nephritis (LN) in SLE patients. Pearson correlation was also applied. FAR in the SLE group was found to be significantly higher than that of the healthy control group (83.71 mg/g vs. 53.14 mg/g, P < 0.001). It was also significantly higher in patients with LN than that in patients without (107.64 mg/g vs. 67.75 mg/g, P < 0.001). The ROC curve for predicting LN showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of FAR (0.859, 95% CI 0.803-0.914) was the largest when compared to albumin (0.852, 95% CI 0.789-0.916) or fibrinogen (0.736, 95% CI 0.659-0.814) alone. In addition, FAR was a good predictor of severe disease activity in SLE (AUC = 0.721, 95% CI 0.612-0.830) and LN patients (AUC = 0.789, 95% CI 0.680-0.898). Pearson correlation analysis indicated that FAR demonstrated a strong correlation with SLE disease activity index 2000 (r = 0.4288, P < 0.001). FAR was significantly increased in SLE patients. It is a possible biomarker for disease activity and renal involvement in SLE.

Comprehensive review on the pathogenesis of hypertriglyceridaemia-associated acute pancreatitis

It is well known, that the inflammatory process that characterizes acute pancreatitis (AP) can lead to both pancreatic damage and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). During the last 20 years, there has been a growing incidence of episodes of acute pancreatitis associated with hypertriglyceridaemia (HTAP). This review provides an overview of triglyceride metabolism and the potential mechanisms that may contribute to developing or exacerbating HTAP. The article comprehensively discusses the various pathological roles of free fatty acid, inflammatory response mechanisms, the involvement of microcirculation, serum calcium overload, oxidative stress and the endoplasmic reticulum, genetic polymorphism, and gut microbiota, which are known to trigger or escalate this condition. Future perspectives on HTAP appear promising, with ongoing research focused on developing more specific and effective treatment strategies.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Hemorheological and Microcirculatory Relations of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis still means a serious challenge in clinical practice. Its pathomechanism is complex and has yet to be fully elucidated. Rheological properties of blood play an important role in tissue perfusion and show non-specific changes in acute pancreatitis. An increase in blood and plasma viscosity, impairment of red blood cell deformability, and enhanced red blood cell aggregation caused by metabolic, inflammatory, free radical-related changes and mechanical stress contribute to the deterioration of the blood flow in the large vessels and also in the microcirculation. Revealing the significance of these changes in acute pancreatitis may better explain the pathogenesis and optimize the therapy. In this review, we give an overview of the role of impaired microcirculation by changes in hemorheological properties in acute pancreatitis.

Prognostic Significance of the Albumin to Fibrinogen Ratio in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Background

Albumin to fibrinogen ratio (AFR) is a demonstrated predictor of mortality in various diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of AFR to predict mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 212 incident PD patients from January 2010 to December 2017 and followed them until December 2019. We used receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis to determine the optimal cut-off point for AFR at baseline to predict overall and cardiovascular mortality during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression analysis were applied to evaluate the association between AFR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Results

The optimal threshold for AFR to predict mortality was 8.48. A low AFR was strongly correlated with worse all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in PD patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that elevated AFR was an independent marker predicting reduced all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.11–5.22, P = 0.026; and HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.21–3.95, P = 0.010, respectively).

Conclusions

Patients with a high AFR had reduced all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. AFR is a potential prognostic biomarker in PD patients.

The Prognostic Role of Circulating FPR Before Operation in Patients with BCLC A-C Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

This research aimed to comprehensively assess the prognostic role of fibrinogen to prealbumin ratio (FPR) in BCLC A-C HCC patients treated by TACE and RFA.

Methods

The research included 240 patients at stage BCLC A-C treated by TACE and RFA at Beijing Ditan Hospital of Capital Medical University from May 2011 to November 2018.

Results

The results showed that the size of the tumor, vascular invasion, α-foetoprotein, cirrhosis, NLR, LMR, and PLR showed prognostic value in predicting 5-year OS. Besides, FPR (95% confidence interval: 1.006–1.013, hazard ratio: 1.009) was a prognostic factor for the prediction of 5-year OS in HCC.

Conclusion

Our research indicated that FPR was a potential indicator for patients with BCLC A-C hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment of RFA and TACE.

Diagnostic value of combined prealbumin-to-fibrinogen and albumin-to-fibrinogen ratios in Hp-negative gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (PFR) and albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR) alone or in combination in Helicobacter pylori-negative gastric cancer (Hp-NGC) patients.

METHODS

This study included 171 healthy controls, 180 Hp-NGC patients, and 215 Helicobacter pylori-negative chronic gastritis (HpN) patients. We compared the differences of various indicators and pathological characteristics between groups with Mann-Whitney U test and Chi-square test. The diagnostic value of PFR and AFR alone or in combination for Hp-NGC patients was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

PFR and AFR were related to the progression and clinicopathological characteristics of Hp-NGC. As the disease progressed, PFR and AFR values gradually decreased and were negatively related to the tumor size and depth of invasion. In addition, the area under the curves (AUCs) that resulted from combining PFR and AFR to distinguish Hp-NGC patients from healthy controls and HpN patients were 0.908 and 0.654, respectively. When combined with PFR and AFR in the differential diagnosis of tumors with a maximum diameter ≥ 5 cm and the T3 + T4 stage, the AUCs were 0.949 and 0.922; the sensitivity was 86.32% and 80.74%; and the specificity was 94.74% and 92.98%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PFR and AFR may be used as diagnostic biomarkers for Hp-NGC. The combination of PFR and AFR was more valuable than each indicator alone in the diagnosis of Hp-NGC.

Preoperative prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio predict Survival Outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatic resection

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical application of the preoperative prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (PFR) in the clinical diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and its prognostic value.

Methods

The clinical and laboratory data of 269 HCC patients undergoing surgical treatment from January 2012 to January 2017 in Taizhou Hospital were retrospectively analysed. The Cox regression model was used to analyse the correlation between the PFR and other clinicopathological factors in overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Results

Cox regression analysis showed that the PFR (hazard ratio (HR)=2.123; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.271-3.547; P=0.004) was an independent risk factor affecting the OS of HCC patients. Furthermore, a nomogram was built based on these risk factors. The C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.715.

Conclusions

Nomograms based on the PFR can be recommended as the correct and actual model to evaluate the prognosis of patients with HCC.

Novel Systemic Inflammation Markers to Predict COVID-19 Prognosis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a global pandemic, challenging both the medical and scientific community for the development of novel vaccines and a greater understanding of the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. COVID-19 has been associated with a pronounced and out-of-control inflammatory response. Studies have sought to understand the effects of inflammatory response markers to prognosticate the disease. Herein, we aimed to review the evidence of 11 groups of systemic inflammatory markers for risk-stratifying patients and prognosticating outcomes related to COVID-19. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in prognosticating patient outcomes, including but not limited to severe disease, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, and death. A few markers outperformed NLR in predicting outcomes, including 1) systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), 2) prognostic nutritional index (PNI), 3) C-reactive protein (CRP) to albumin ratio (CAR) and high-sensitivity CAR (hsCAR), and 4) CRP to prealbumin ratio (CPAR) and high-sensitivity CPAR (hsCPAR). However, there are a limited number of studies comparing NLR with these markers, and such conclusions require larger validation studies. Overall, the evidence suggests that most of the studied markers are able to predict COVID-19 prognosis, however NLR seems to be the most robust marker.

Nomogram for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) associated with high mortality is the common complication in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to formulate and validate an individualized predictive nomogram for in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP.

METHOD

From January 2017 to December 2018, 779 individuals with AP were involved in this study. They were randomly distributed into primary cohort (n=560) and validation cohort (n=219). Based on the primary cohort, risk factors were identified by logistic regression model and a nomogram was performed. The nomogram was validated in the primary and validation cohort by the bootstrap validation method. The calibration curve was applied to evaluate the consistency between the nomogram and the ideal observation.

RESULTS

There were 728 patients in the non-ARDS group and 51 in the ARDS group, with an incidence of about 6.55%. Five independent factors including white blood cell counts (WBC), prothrombin time (PT), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCR) and triglyceride (TG) were associated with in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP. A nomogram was constructed based on the five independent factors with primary cohort of AUC=0.821 and validation cohort of AUC=0.823. Calibration curve analysis indicated that the predicted probability was in accordance with the observed probability in both primary and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study developed an intuitive nomogram with easily available laboratory parameters for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of ARDS in patients with AP. The incidence of ARDS for an individual patient can be fast and conveniently evaluated by our nomogram.

The serum C-reactive protein to prealbumin ratio and fibrinogen to prealbumin ratio are two relevant indicators for evaluating the disease activity of ankylosing spondylitis

The C-reactive protein to prealbumin ratio (CPR) and fibrinogen to prealbumin ratio (FPR) in serum are two emerging biomarkers. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between these two markers and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Scores (ASDAS). A total of 163 patients with AS and 120 healthy examinees were included in this study. The t-test and Mann-Whitney U ranking test were used to analyze the differences between groups. The spearman-test was used to analyze the correlation between erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), c-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen (Fib), prealbumin (PAlb), CPR, FPR, and AS disease activity in the test group. We generated the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) of CPR and FPR and determined the discriminating ability by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Compared with the healthy group, ESR ( p < 0.001), CRP ( p < 0.001), Fib ( p < 0.001), CPR ( p < 0.001), and FPR ( p < 0.001) of AS patients were significantly increased, while PAlb was significantly reduced. CPR and FPR were more correlated to ASDAS-CRP. CPR was positively correlated with CRP, ESR, BASDAI, and ASDAS-CRP in AS patients ( r = 0.959, p < 0.001, r = 0.717, p < 0.001, r = 0.704, p < 0.001, r = 0.763, p < 0.001). FPR was positively correlated with CRP, ESR BASDAI, and ASDAS-CRP in AS patients ( r = 0.779, p < 0.001, r = 0709, p < 0.001, r = 0.551, p < 0.001, r = 0.763, p < 0.001). ROC showed that the AUC levels of CPR and FPR were high (AUC = 0.952 and AUC = 0.893). CPR and FPR are two promising new biological indicators for assessing disease activity in AS patients.

Prealbumin to fibrinogen ratio is closely associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy

The aim of our study was to explore the diagnostic value of prealbumin to fibrinogen ratio (PFR) for predicting prognosis with the optimal cut-off value in diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) patients. A total of 568 type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients were enrolled in this study. The values including Toronto clinical neuropathy score (TCNS), nerve conduction velocity (NCV), vibration perception threshold (VPT), blood cells count, biochemical parameters, fibrinogen and PFR were recorded. The patients were divided into tertiles based on admission PFR value. First, clinical parameters were compared among the groups. Secondly, a logistic regression and ROC analysis were performed as the statistical model. The percentage of DPN, TCNS and VPT were significantly higher in the lowest PFR tertile than in the middle PFR tertile and the highest PFR tertile (P < 0.01-0.001). NCV was significantly lower in lowest PFR tertile than in the middle PFR tertile and the highest PFR tertile (P < 0.01-0.001). The Spearman correlation analysis showed that PFR was negatively correlated with TCNS and VPT (P < 0.001), while PFR was positively correlated with median motor NCV (P < 0.001), peroneal motor NCV (P < 0.001), median sensory NCV (P < 0.001), and peroneal sensory NCV (P < 0.001). After adjusting these potentially related factors, PFR was independently related to DPN (P = 0.007). The area under ROC curve was 0.627. This study finds the first evidence to suggest PFR may be the key component associated with DPN in T2DM, while PFR might underlie the pathophysiologic features of DPN.

Diagnostic value of fibrinogen to prealbumin ratio and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio in the progression of AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

This study aimed to comprehensively assess the diagnostic value of fibrinogen to prealbumin ratio (FPR) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) as single markers or in combination in patients with alpha-fetoprotein-negative (AFP-negative) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A total of 199 healthy controls and 515 AFP-negative patients were enrolled in this study, including 180 HCC inpatients, 151 liver cirrhosis (LC) patients, and 184 chronic hepatitis (CH) cases. Mann-Whitney U or Kruskal-Wallis H test were used to analyze differences between groups in laboratory parameters and clinicopathological features. The diagnostic value of FPR and GPR, alone or in combination, in AFP-negative HCC (AFP-NHCC) patients was determined via a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

The levels of FPR and GPR were gradually increased in the development of AFP-NHCC and positively correlated with the tumor size and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages. Moreover, GPR was associated with Edmondson-Steiner grades. After univariate logistic regression analysis, FPR and GPR remained independent predictors of adverse outcomes. The combination of FPR and GPR had a good ability to detect AFP-NHCC from the control group (area under curve [AUC] = 0.977), AFP-negative CH (AUC = 0.745), and AFP-negative LC (AUC = 0.666). FPR combined with GPR possessed a larger area (0.943, 0.971) and sensitivity (87.50%, 89.81%) than FPR or GPR alone for differentiating AFP-NHCC with tumor size < 3 cm or at the BCLC-A stage.

Conclusions

The pretreatment levels of FPR and GPR played vital roles in the development of AFP-NHCC, especially in patients with early or small AFP-NHCC.

Computed Tomography Severity Index vs. Other Indices in the Prediction of Severity and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Predictive Accuracy Meta-analysis

Background: The management of the moderate and severe forms of acute pancreatitis (AP) with necrosis and multiorgan failure remains a challenge. To predict the severity and mortality of AP multiple clinical, laboratory-, and imaging-based scoring systems are available. Aim: To investigate, if the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) can predict the outcomes of AP better than other scoring systems. Methods: A systematic search was performed in three databases: Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Eligible records provided data from consecutive AP cases and used CTSI or modified CTSI (mCTSI) alone or in combination with other prognostic scores [Ranson, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology, and Chronic Health Examination II (APACHE II), C-reactive protein (CRP)] for the evaluation of severity or mortality of AP. Area under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and aggregated with STATA 14 software using the metandi module. Results: Altogether, 30 studies were included in our meta-analysis, which contained the data of 5,988 AP cases. The pooled AUC for the prediction of mortality was 0.79 (CI 0.73-0.86) for CTSI; 0.87 (CI 0.83-0.90) for BISAP; 0.80 (CI 0.72-0.89) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.66-0.81) for CRP level; 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) for the Ranson score; and 0.91 (CI 0.88-0.93) for the APACHE II score. The APACHE II scoring system had significantly higher predictive value for mortality than CTSI and CRP (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively), while the predictive value of CTSI was not statistically different from that of BISAP, mCTSI, CRP, or Ranson criteria. The AUC for the prediction of severity of AP were 0.80 (CI 0.76-0.85) for CTSI; 0.79, (CI 0.72-0.86) for BISAP; 0.83 (CI 0.75-0.91) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.64-0.83) for CRP level; 0.81 (CI 0.75-0.87) for Ranson score and 0.80 (CI 0.77-0.83) for APACHE II score. Regarding severity, all tools performed equally. Conclusion: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity. When the CT scan has been performed, CTSI is an easily calculable and informative tool, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.

Aging and Comorbidities in Acute Pancreatitis I: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review Based on 194,702 Patients

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common cause of hospitalization among gastrointestinal diseases worldwide. Although most of the cases are mild, approximately 10-20% of patients develop a severe course of disease with higher mortality rate. Scoring systems consider age as a risk factor of mortality and severity (BISAP; >60 years, JPN>70 years, RANSON; >55 years, APACHE II >45 years). If there is a correlation between aging and the clinical features of AP, how does age influence mortality and severity? Aim: This study aimed to systematically review the effects of aging on AP. Methods: A comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted in the Embase, Cochrane, and Pubmed databases. A meta-analysis was performed using the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis statement (PRISMA). A total of 1,100 articles were found. After removing duplicates and articles containing insufficient or irrelevant data, 33 publications involving 194,702 AP patients were analyzed. Seven age categories were determined and several mathematical models, including conventional mathematical methods (linear regression), meta-analyses (random effect model and heterogeneity tests), meta-regression, funnel plot and Egger's test for publication bias were performed. Quality assessment was conducted using the modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The meta-analysis was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42017079253). Results: Aging greatly influences the outcome of AP. There was a low severe AP incidence in patients under 30 (1.6%); however, the incidence of severe AP showed a continuous, linear increase between 20 and 70 (0.193%/year) of up to 9.6%. The mortality rate was 0.9% in patients under 20 and demonstrated a continuous linear elevation until 59, however from this age the mortality rate started elevating with 9 times higher rate until the age of 70. The mortality rate between 20 and 59 grew 0.086%/year and 0.765%/year between 59 and 70. Overall, patients above 70 had a 19 times higher mortality rate than patients under 20. The mortality rate rising with age was confirmed by meta-regression (coefficient: 0.037 CI: 0.006-0.068, p = 0.022; adjusted r2: 13.8%), and severity also (coefficient: 0.035 CI: 0.019-0.052, p < 0.001; adjusted r2: 31.6%). Conclusion: Our analysis shows a likelihood of severe pancreatitis, as well as, pancreatitis-associated mortality is more common with advanced age. Importantly, the rapid elevation of mortality above the age of 59 suggests the involvement of additional deteriorating factors such as co-morbidity in elderly.

Are traditional scoring systems for severity stratification of acute pancreatitis sufficient?

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Ranson's score (RS) and Glasgow score (GS) have been utilized to stratify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to validate RS and GS for stratifying the severity of acute pancreatitis and audit our experience of managing AP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of patients treated for AP from July 2009 to September 2016. Final severity was determined using the revised Atlanta classification. Mortality and complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

From July 2009 to September 2016, a total of 675 patients with a diagnosis of AP were admitted at the hospital. Of them, 669 patients who had sufficient data were analyzed. Their average age±SD was 58.7±17.4 years (range, 21-98 years). There was a male preponderance (n=393, 53.8%). A total of 82 (12.3%) patients had eventual severe pancreatitis. RS demonstrated a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 52.8% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 21.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.1%. GS demonstrated a sensitivity of 76.8% and a specificity of 69.2% with a PPV of 25.8% and a NPV of 95.5%. For severity prediction, areas under the curve (AUCs) for RS and GS were 0.848 (95% CI: 0.819-0.875) and 0.784 (95% CI: 0.750-0.814), respectively (p=0.003). Twelve (1.6%) patients died in the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

RS has higher sensitivity, NPV and AUC for predicting severity of AP than GS.

Serum Albumin Is Independently Associated with Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To investigate the association between serum albumin levels within 24 hrs of patient admission and the development of persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A total of 700 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression and subgroup analysis determined whether decreased albumin was independently associated with persistent organ failure and mortality. The diagnostic performance of serum albumin was evaluated by the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

As levels of serum albumin decrease, the risk of persistent organ failure significantly increases (P_trend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure was 3.5%, 10.6%, and 41.6% in patients with normal albumin and mild and severe hypoalbuminaemia, respectively. Decreased albumin levels were also proportionally associated with prolonged hospital stay (P_trend < 0.001) and the risk of death (P_trend < 0.001). Multivariate analysis suggested that biliary etiology, chronic concomitant diseases, hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, and the serum albumin level were independently associated with persistent organ failure. Blood urea nitrogen and the serum albumin level were also independently associated with mortality. The area under ROC curves of albumin for predicting organ failure and mortality were 0.78 and 0.87, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A low serum albumin is independently associated with an increased risk of developing of persistent organ failure and death in acute pancreatitis. It may also be useful for the prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Clinical significance of dynamic detection for serum levels of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

To observe dynamic changes of levels of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-8 (IL-8) in patients with acute pancreatitis and to investigate its evaluation value on the severity of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A total of 109 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted were divided into mild acute pancreatitis group (MAP group, 42 cases), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP group, 35 cases) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP group, 32 cases). ELISA was used to detect the serum levels of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 of patients at day 1, day 4 and day 7 of admission to hospital.

RESULTS

The serum levels of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 from MAP group, MSAP group and SAP group at day 1 of admission to hospital all significantly increased. There was a significant difference between MAP group and control group, MSAP group and MAP group, SAP group and MSAP group (P < 0.05). The serum concentrations of IL-8 from MASP group and SAP group obviously increased at day 1, and there was significant difference between MASP group and MAP group, SAP group and MSAP group (P < 0.05), while the difference between MAP group and control group was not obvious (P > 0.05); The serum concentrations of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 from MAP group all reached the highest level at day 4, which were significantly higher than the detection levels at day 1. In MSAP group and SAP group, the serum concentrations of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 were the highest at day 1, which were significantly higher than the detection levels at day 4 and 7. At each detecting timing, the serum concentrations of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 from MSAP group and SAP group were all higher than those of MAP group and MSAP group, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic changes of serum levels of MCP-1, TNF-α and IL-8 in patients with acute pancreatitis have their rules, and the change rule of MAP group was different with that of MSAP and SAP group, which showed the reference value for the diagnosis and illness severity evaluation of acute pancreatitis.

Role of Biomarkers in Diagnosis and Prognostic Evaluation of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis is a potentially life threatening disease. The spectrum of severity of the illness ranges from mild self-limiting disease to a highly fatal severe necrotizing pancreatitis. Despite intensive research and improved patient care, overall mortality still remains high, reaching up to 30–40% in cases with infected pancreatic necrosis. Although little is known about the exact pathogenesis, it has been widely accepted that premature activation of digestive enzymes within the pancreatic acinar cell is the trigger that leads to autodigestion of pancreatic tissue which is followed by infiltration and activation of leukocytes. Extensive research has been done over the past few decades regarding their role in diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of severe acute pancreatitis. Although many standalone biochemical markers have been studied for early assessment of severity, C-reactive protein still remains the most frequently used along with Interleukin-6. In this review we have discussed briefly the pathogenesis and the role of different biochemical markers in the diagnosis and severity evaluation in acute pancreatitis.