Space-time clustering of cowpox virus infection in wild rodent populations

The impact of within-host coinfection interactions on between-host parasite transmission dynamics varies with spatial scale

Within-host interactions among coinfecting parasites can have major consequences for individual infection risk and disease severity. However, the impact of these within-host interactions on between-host parasite transmission, and the spatial scales over which they occur, remain unknown. We developed and apply a novel spatially explicit analysis to parasite infection data from a wild wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) population. We previously demonstrated a strong within-host negative interaction between two wood mouse gastrointestinal parasites, the nematode Heligmosomoides polygyrus and the coccidian Eimeria hungaryensis, using drug-treatment experiments. Here, we show this negative within-host interaction can significantly alter the between-host transmission dynamics of E. hungaryensis, but only within spatially restricted neighbourhoods around each host. However, for the closely related species E. apionodes, which experiments show does not interact strongly with H. polygyrus, we did not find any effect on transmission over any spatial scale. Our results demonstrate that the effects of within-host coinfection interactions can ripple out beyond each host to alter the transmission dynamics of the parasites, but only over local scales that likely reflect the spatial dimension of transmission. Hence there may be knock-on consequences of drug treatments impacting the transmission of non-target parasites, altering infection risks even for non-treated individuals in the wider neighbourhood.

Spatial analysis of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Illinois, 2008-2019

Understanding the geographic distribution and clustering of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations can inform disease management practices. We used a retrospective analysis of surveillance data to evaluate CWD's spatial and temporal dynamics within 16 CWD-infected northern Illinois counties. Of 42,541 deer samples collected and tested for CWD from recreational hunter harvest between 2008 and 2019, we recorded 359 (0.84%) CWD-positive samples. We observed variability in CWD cases over time and space. By county, the median CWD-positive proportion was 0.84%, varying from a minimum of 0.14% in McHenry County to a maximum of 6.28% in Boone County. Across years, there were differences among CWD-positive proportions with a median of 0.90%, ranging from a minimum of 0.27% in 2012 to a maximum of 1.60% in 2019. We used a retrospective discrete Poisson scan statistic model to evaluate the space-time clustering of CWD-positive deer. We identified a statistically significant (p < .001) primary cluster C1 (area = 23.59 km² ; RR = 10.48), occurring from 2010 to 2015 in the north-central part of the study area, and a secondary cluster C2, occurring from 2014 to 2019 (area = 9.27 km² ; RR = 3.88) in the north-west of the study area. Detected CWD-positive space-time clusters suggest that the risk of CWD is not random. Space-time clusters of CWD can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the Illinois CWD management programme. The area surrounding the older C1 cluster has undergone longer and more intense CWD management compared with C2. Currently, the older C1 cluster is no longer as high risk compared with the newer cluster C2, suggesting that management efforts in C2 should be increased. However, all CWD clusters should be targeted with surveillance, prevention and management programmes, including reducing deer densities to limit further spread of CWD.

Integrating data mining and transmission theory in the ecology of infectious diseases

Our understanding of ecological processes is built on patterns inferred from data. Applying modern analytical tools such as machine learning to increasingly high dimensional data offers the potential to expand our perspectives on these processes, shedding new light on complex ecological phenomena such as pathogen transmission in wild populations. Here, we propose a novel approach that combines data mining with theoretical models of disease dynamics. Using rodents as an example, we incorporate statistical differences in the life history features of zoonotic reservoir hosts into pathogen transmission models, enabling us to bound the range of dynamical phenomena associated with hosts, based on their traits. We then test for associations between equilibrium prevalence, a key epidemiological metric and data on human outbreaks of rodent-borne zoonoses, identifying matches between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions of transmission dynamics. We show how this framework can be generalized to other systems through a rubric of disease models and parameters that can be derived from empirical data. By linking life history components directly to their effects on disease dynamics, our mining-modelling approach integrates machine learning and theoretical models to explore mechanisms in the macroecology of pathogen transmission and their consequences for spillover infection to humans.

Host-parasite biology in the real world: the field voles of Kielder

Research on the interactions between the field voles (Microtus agrestis) of Kielder Forest and their natural parasites dates back to the 1930s. These early studies were primarily concerned with understanding how parasites shape the characteristic cyclic population dynamics of their hosts. However, since the early 2000s, research on the Kielder field voles has expanded considerably and the system has now been utilized for the study of host-parasite biology across many levels, including genetics, evolutionary ecology, immunology and epidemiology. The Kielder field voles therefore represent one of the most intensely and broadly studied natural host-parasite systems, bridging theoretical and empirical approaches to better understand the biology of infectious disease in the real world. This article synthesizes the body of work published on this system and summarizes some important insights and general messages provided by the integrated and multidisciplinary study of host-parasite interactions in the natural environment.

Temporal anomalies in immunological gene expression in a time series of wild mice: signature of an epidemic?

Although the ecological importance of coinfection is increasingly recognized, analyses of microbial pathogen dynamics in wildlife usually focus on an ad hoc subset of the species present due to technological limitations on detection. Here we demonstrate the use of expression profiles for immunological genes (pattern recognition receptors, cytokines and transcription factors) as a means to identify, without preconception, the likelihood of important acute microbial infections in wildlife. Using a wood mouse population in the UK as a model we identified significant temporal clusters of individuals with extreme expression of immunological mediators across multiple loci, typical of an acute microbial infection. These clusters were circumstantially associated with demographic perturbation in the summertime wood mouse population. Animals in one cluster also had significantly higher individual macroparasite burdens than contemporaries with "normal" expression patterns. If the extreme transcriptional profiles observed are induced by an infectious agent then this implicates macroparasites as a possible player in mediating individual susceptibility or resilience to infection. The form of survey described here, combined with next generation nucleic acids sequencing methods for the broad detection of microbial infectious agents in individuals with anomalous immunological transcriptional profiles, could be a powerful tool for revealing unrecognized, ecologically important infectious agents circulating in wildlife populations.

Cowpox virus infection in natural field vole Microtus agrestis populations: delayed density dependence and individual risk

1. Little is known about the dynamics of pathogen (microparasite) infection in wildlife populations, and less still about sources of variation in the risk of infection. Here we present the first detailed analysis of such variation. 2. Cowpox virus is an endemic sublethal pathogen circulating in populations of wild rodents. Cowpox prevalence was monitored longitudinally for 2 years, in populations of field voles exhibiting multiannual cycles of density in Kielder Forest, UK. 3. The probability that available susceptible animals seroconverted in a given trap session was significantly positively related to host density with a 3-month time lag. 4. Males were significantly more likely to seroconvert than females. 5. Despite most infection being found in young animals (because transmission rates were generally high) mature individuals were more likely to seroconvert than immature ones, suggesting that behavioural or physiological changes associated with maturity contribute to variation in infection risk. 6. Hence, these analyses confirm that there is a delayed numerical response of cowpox infection to vole density, supporting the hypothesis that endemic pathogens may play some part in shaping vole cycles.

Inference of cowpox virus transmission rates between wild rodent host classes using space-time interaction

There have been virtually no studies of 'who acquires infection from whom' in wildlife populations, but patterns of transmission within and between different classes of host are likely to be reflected in the spatiotemporal distribution of infection among those host classes. Here, we use a modified form of K-function analysis to test for space-time interaction among bank voles and wood mice infectious with cowpox virus. There was no evidence for transmission between the two host species, supporting previous evidence that they act as separate reservoirs for cowpox. Among wood mice, results suggested that transmission took place primarily between individuals of the opposite sex, raising the possibility that cowpox is sexually transmitted in this species. Results for bank voles indicated that infected females might be a more important source of infection to either sex than are males. The suggestion of different modes of transmission in the two species is itself consistent with the apparent absence of transmission between species.