Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

The Current and Potential Distribution of Parthenium Weed and Its Biological Control Agent in Pakistan

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae), commonly known as parthenium weed, is a highly invasive weed spreading rapidly from northern to southern parts of Pakistan. The persistence of parthenium weed in the hot and dry southern districts suggests that the weed can survive under more extreme conditions than previously thought. The development of a CLIMEX distribution model, which considered this increased tolerance to drier and warmer conditions, predicted that the weed could still spread to many other parts of Pakistan as well as to other regions of south Asia. This CLIMEX model satisfied the present distribution of parthenium weed within Pakistan. When an irrigation scenario was added to the CLIMEX program, more parts of the southern districts of Pakistan (Indus River basin) became suitable for parthenium weed growth, as well as the growth of its biological control agent, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister. This expansion from the initially predicted range was due to irrigation producing extra moisture to support its establishment. In addition to the weed moving south in Pakistan due to irrigation, it will also move north due to temperature increases. The CLIMEX model indicated that there are many more areas within South Asia that are suitable for parthenium weed growth, both under the present and a future climate scenario. Most of the south-western and north-eastern parts of Afghanistan are suitable under the current climate, but more areas are likely to become suitable under climate change scenarios. Under climate change, the suitability of southern parts of Pakistan is likely to decrease.

Divergence in Photoperiod Responses of a Classical Biological Control Agent, Galerucella calmariensis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Across a Climatic and Latitudinal Gradient

A key knowledge gap in classical biological control is to what extent insect agents evolve to novel environments. The introduction of biological control agents to new photoperiod regimes and climates may disrupt the coordination of diapause timing that evolved to the growing season length in the native range. We tested whether populations of Galerucella calmariensis L. have evolved in response to the potential mismatch of their diapause timing since their intentional introduction to the United States from Germany in the 1990s. Populations collected from 39.4° to 48.8° latitude in the western United States were reared in growth chambers to isolate the effects of photoperiod on diapause induction and development time. For all populations, shorter day lengths increased the proportion of beetles that entered diapause instead of reproducing. The critical photoperiods, or the day length at which half of a population diapauses, differed significantly among the sampled populations, generally decreasing at lower latitudes. The latitudinal trend reflects changes in growing season length, which determines the number of generations possible, and in local day lengths, at the time when beetles are sensitive to this cue. Development times were similar across populations, with one exception, and did not vary with photoperiod. These results show that there was sufficient genetic variation from the two German source populations to evolve different photoperiod responses across a range of environmental conditions. This study adds to the examples of rapid evolution of seasonal adaptations in introduced insects.

Impact of Aceria alhagi (Acari: Eriophyidae) as a potential biological control agent on the invasive weed Alhagi maurorum (Fabaceae) in its native range

Camelthorn, Alhagi maurorum Medik. (Fabaceae, Leguminosae), a native component of the Asian flora, is invasive in Australia, South Africa and the USA where it is considered a noxious weed in several states. To date there is no biological control program against this weed; however, initial investigations into potential biocontrol agents revealed an eriophyid mite, Aceria alhagi Vidović & Kamali, causing considerable damage in the native range. The mite attacks the growing tips as well as the flowers of the plants, not only reducing height and plant vigor but also reducing seed set. To assess the host range and impact of this potential biological control agent, on the target weed, no-choice tests as well as an open-field impact experiment were conducted at the research farm of the School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, over 2 years (2018 and 2019). Results from the no-choice tests suggest that A. alhagi poses negligible risk to the non-target plants tested in this study. In the first year of the open field impact test, plants did not flower; however, plant height was significantly reduced by mite attack. In the second year, significant reductions in plant biomass (26%), seed production (95%) and photosynthesis (53%) were observed in response to mite attack that would potentially limit the competitiveness of camelthorn as well as long-distance dispersal through seed in the invaded range. These results suggest that A. alhagi is a promising candidate for the biological control of camelthorn and should be prioritized for any future studies, expanding on the host range testing and safety.

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Biological control agent attack timing and population variability, but not density, best explain target weed density across an environmental gradient

Spatial variation in plant–herbivore interactions can be important in pest systems, particularly when insect herbivores are used as biological control agents to manage invasive plants. The geographic ranges of the invasive plant alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides) and its biological control agent the alligatorweed flea beetle (Agasicles hygrophila) do not completely overlap in the southeastern USA, producing spatial heterogeneity in interaction strength that may be related to latitude-correlated environmental gradients. We studied this system near the range margin of the alligatorweed flea beetle to test whether spatial variation in alligatorweed density was best explained by agent mean or maximum density, variability in agent density, agent attack timing, or a combination of biological control and environmental (i.e., weather) variables. The pattern that emerged was that mean agent and host densities were negatively and positively associated with latitude, respectively. Variability in agent density increased with latitude and was positively correlated with host density. We further discovered that agent first attack timing was negatively correlated with winter and spring temperatures and spring and summer precipitation, and positively correlated with seasonal temperature extremes, which was then directly influential on agent density and variability in density, and indirectly on host density. This study demonstrates that, contrary to common wisdom, weather-related timing of agent activity and population variability, but not agent mean density, contribute to the spatial heterogeneity observed in alligatorweed populations.

Predicting impact of a biocontrol agent: integrating distribution modeling with climate-dependent vital rates

Species distribution models can predict the suitable climatic range of a potential biological control agent (BCA), but they provide little information on the BCA's potential impact. To predict high population buildup, a prerequisite of biocontrol impact, studies are needed that assess the effect of environmental factors on vital rates of a BCA across the environmental gradient of the BCA's suitable habitats, especially for the region where the BCA is considered for field release. We extended a published species distribution model with climate-dependent vital rates of Ophraella communa, a recently and accidentally introduced potential BCA of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe. In field and laboratory experiments, we collected data on climate-dependent parameters assumed to be the most relevant for the population buildup of O. communa, i.e., temperature driving the number of generations per year and relative humidity (RH) determining egg hatching success. We found that O. communa concluded one generation in 334 cumulative degree days, and that egg hatching success strongly decreased from > 80% to < 20% when RH drops from 55% to 45% during the day. We used these values to spatially explicitly project population densities across the European range suitable for both A. artemisiifolia and the beetle and found that the present distribution of the beetle in Europe is within the range with the highest projected population growth. The highest population density of O. communa was predicted for northern Italy and parts of western Russia and western Georgia. Field observations of high impact on A. artemisiifolia with records of 80% aerial pollen reduction in the Milano area since the establishment of O. communa are in line with these predictions. The relative importance of temperature and RH on the population density of O. communa varies considerably across its suitable range in Europe. We propose that the combined statistical and mechanistic approach outlined in this paper helps to more accurately predict the potential impact of a weed BCA than a species distribution model alone. Identifying the factors limiting the population buildup of a BCA across the suitable range allows implementation of more targeted release and management strategies to optimize biocontrol efficacy.

An Alternative Perspective for the Theory of Biological Control

Importation biological control represents the planned introduction of a specialist natural enemy from the region of origin of an invasive pest or weed. For this study, the author considered why attempts to develop a predictive theory for biological control have been misguided and what future directions might be more promising and effective. Despite considerable interest in the theory of consumer–resource population dynamics, such theory has contributed little to improvements in the success of biological control due to a focus on persistence and equilibrium dynamics rather than establishment and impact. A broader consideration of invasion biology in addition to population ecology offers new opportunities for a more inclusive theory of biological control that incorporates the demographic and genetic processes that more specifically address the establishment and impact of introduced natural enemies. The importance of propagule size and genetic variance for successful establishment, and of contributions to host population growth, relative population growth rates, interaction strength, and coevolution for suppression of host abundance are discussed as promising future directions for a theory of biological control.

Evolution in agriculture: the application of evolutionary approaches to the management of biotic interactions in agro-ecosystems

Anthropogenic impacts increasingly drive ecological and evolutionary processes at many spatio-temporal scales, demanding greater capacity to predict and manage their consequences. This is particularly true for agro-ecosystems, which not only comprise a significant proportion of land use, but which also involve conflicting imperatives to expand or intensify production while simultaneously reducing environmental impacts. These imperatives reinforce the likelihood of further major changes in agriculture over the next 30–40 years. Key transformations include genetic technologies as well as changes in land use. The use of evolutionary principles is not new in agriculture (e.g. crop breeding, domestication of animals, management of selection for pest resistance), but given land-use trends and other transformative processes in production landscapes, ecological and evolutionary research in agro-ecosystems must consider such issues in a broader systems context. Here, we focus on biotic interactions involving pests and pathogens as exemplars of situations where integration of agronomic, ecological and evolutionary perspectives has practical value. Although their presence in agro-ecosystems may be new, many traits involved in these associations evolved in natural settings. We advocate the use of predictive frameworks based on evolutionary models as pre-emptive management tools and identify some specific research opportunities to facilitate this. We conclude with a brief discussion of multidisciplinary approaches in applied evolutionary problems.

Prediction of the geographic distribution of the psyllid, Arytinnis hakani (Homoptera: Psyllidae), a prospective biological control agent of Genista monspessulana, based on the effect of temperature on development, fecundity, and survival

The psyllid, Arytinnis hakani (Loginova), is a prospective biological control agent of Genista monspessulana (French broom), an invasive shrub originating from western Europe. It is a multivoltine species that is not known to diapause. The insect is established in Australia, where it appears to cause heavy defoliation and mortality of the target weed, except at warm sunny sites. This suggests that bright light or high temperatures may hamper the agent. We measured the effect of temperature on development rate, survival, and fecundity of the psyllid to determine its suitable temperature range. Intrinsic rate of increase was highest near 22°C, and there was no population growth at the extremes of 5°C and 26°C. Net reproductive rate was highest at 16.5°C. Fecundity was highest at 22°C, and decreased to half at 16°C and at 27°C. Adult female longevity decreased with increasing temperature over the range studied. Nymphal survivorship was highest at 16°C and dropped to 0% at 5°C and 26°C. Eggs were able to complete development in 83 d at 5°C, but with only 20% survivorship versus 78-95% survivorship at higher temperatures. For populations with a stable age distribution, only 2-3% of the population is in the adult stage. Climate modeling using CLIMEX indicated that the geographic distribution of the psyllid is constrained by high temperature stress in Australia. The psyllid is predicted to be suitable in coastal California but not in the Sierra foothills.

Combining field phenological observations with distribution data to model the potential distribution of the fruit fly Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Despite the potential for phenological and abundance data to improve the reliability of species niche models, they are seldom used. The aim of this study was to combine information on the distribution, relative abundance and seasonal phenology of Natal fruit fly, Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae), in South Africa to model its potential global distribution. Bucket traps, baited with Biolure, were used to trap C. rosa in different climatic regions of South Africa over a two-year period. A CLIMEX niche model of the potential global distribution of C. rosa was fitted using the collected trapping data and other distribution records from South Africa. Independent distribution records for elsewhere in Africa were reserved for model validation. The CLIMEX model results conformed well to the South African trapping data, including information on relative abundance and seasonal phenology, as well as to the pattern of presence records of the species elsewhere in Africa. The model suggests that under recent historical conditions a large part of South America, Central America, Mexico and southern USA may be climatically suitable for establishment of C. rosa. In Europe, climatically suitable habitat is restricted to coastal regions of the Mediterranean, in Asia, mostly to the southern and south eastern countries, and in Australia mostly to the wetter south and east. The independent cross-validation provided by South African relative abundance and seasonal phenology data, central African distribution data and relevant species specific biological information provides greater confidence in the modelled potential distribution of C. rosa.

Estimating the economic cost of one of the world's major insect pests, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): just how long is a piece of string?

Since 1993, the annual worldwide cost of diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), control has been routinely quoted to be US$1 billion. This estimate requires updating and incorporation of yield losses to reflect current total costs of the pest to the world economy. We present an analysis that estimates what the present costs are likely to be based on a set of necessary, but reasoned, assumptions. We use an existing climate driven model for diamondback moth distribution and abundance, the Food and Agriculture Organization country Brassica crop production data and various management scenarios to bracket the cost estimates. The "length of the string" is somewhere between US$1.3 billion and US$2.3 billion based on management costs. However, if residual pest damage is included then the cost estimates will be even higher; a conservative estimate of 5% diamondback moth-induced yield loss to all crops adds another US$2.7 billion to the total costs associated with the pest. A conservative estimate of total costs associated with diamondback moth management is thus US$4 billion-US$5 billion. The lower bound represents rational decision making by pest managers based on diamondback moth abundance driven by climate only. The upper estimate is due to the more normal practice of weekly insecticide application to vegetable crops and the assumption that canola (Brassica napus L.) is treated with insecticide at least once during the crop cycle. Readers can decide for themselves what the real cost is likely to be because we provide country data for further interpretation. Our analysis suggests that greater efforts at implementation of even basic integrated pest management would reduce insecticide inputs considerably, reducing negative environmental impacts and saving many hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

Evolving while invading: rapid adaptive evolution in juvenile development time for a biological control organism colonizing a high-elevation environment

We report evidence of adaptive evolution in juvenile development time on a decadal timescale for the cinnabar moth Tyria jacobaeae (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) colonizing new habitats and hosts from the Willamette Valley to the Coast Range and Cascades Mountains in Oregon. Four lines of evidence reveal shorter egg to pupa juvenile development times evolved in the mountains, where cooler temperatures shorten the growing season: (i) field observations showed that the mountain populations have shorter phenological development; (ii) a common garden experiment revealed genetic determination of phenotypic differences in juvenile development time between Willamette Valley and mountain populations correlated with the growing season; (iii) a laboratory experiment rearing offspring from parental crosses within and between Willamette Valley and Cascades populations demonstrated polygenic inheritance, high heritability, and genetic determination of phenotypic differences in development times; and (iv) statistical tests that exclude random processes (founder effect, genetic drift) in favor of natural selection as explanations for observed differences in phenology. These results support the hypothesis that rapid adaptation to the cooler mountain climate occurred in populations established from populations in the warmer valley climate. Our findings should motivate regulators to require evaluation of evolutionary potential of candidate biological control organisms prior to release.

Population dynamics and "outbreaks" of diamondback moth (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) in Guangdong province, China: climate or failure of management?

Diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), became the major pest of Brassica vegetable production in Guangdong, a province in southeastern China, in the late 1980s and has continued to challenge growers, particularly during the spring and autumn. Control has relied on insecticides and, as has happened in other parts of the world, resistance to these has evolved and subsequent field control failures have occurred. We review and summarize the history of diamondback moth management in Guangdong. We show that the geographic distribution of the pest in China is well described by a simple climate niche model. Our model predicts the seasonal phenology and some of the variation in abundance among years in Guangdong. Discrepancies may reflect migration and insecticide use at a landscape level. The scale of the pest problem experienced varies with management practices. Local production breaks, and strict post harvest hygiene are associated with lower pest pressure on large-scale production units. As more and more insecticides become ineffective the need to implement an insecticide resistance management strategy, as well as basic integrated pest management practices, will become more pressing. The potential use and development of a better forecasting system for diamondback moth that will assist these developments is outlined.

Lepidopterans as potential agents for the biological control of the invasive plant, Miconia calvescens

This work investigated eight species of Lepidoptera associated with Miconia calvescens DC. (Myrtales: Melastomataceae) in Brazil, including six defoliators, Salbia lotanalis Druce (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), Druentia inscita Schaus (Mimallonidae), Antiblemma leucocyma Hampson (Noctuidae), three Limacodidae species, a fruit borer Carposina cardinata Meyrick (Carposinidae), and a damager of flowers Pleuroprucha rudimentaria Guenée (Geometridae). Based on host specificity and the damage caused to plants, S. lotanalis and D. inscita are the most promising species for biological control of M. calvescens. Furthermore, if C. cardinata and P. rudimentaria have host specificity in future tests, these caterpillars could also be considered as appropriate biocontrol agents.

Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.