When density dependence is not instantaneous: theoretical developments and management implications

Spatial and life history variation in a trait-based species vulnerability and impact model

Anthropogenic pressures threaten biodiversity, necessitating conservation actions founded on robust ecological models. However, prevailing models inadequately capture the spatiotemporal variation in environmental pressures faced by species with high mobility or complex life histories, as data are often aggregated across species' life histories or spatial distributions. We highlight the limitations of static models for dynamic species and incorporate life history variation and spatial distributions for species and stressors into a trait-based vulnerability and impact model. We use green sea turtles in the Greater Caribbean Region to demonstrate how vulnerability and anthropogenic impact for a dynamic species change across four life stages. By incorporating life stages into a trait-based vulnerability model, we observed life stage-specific vulnerabilities that were otherwise unnoticed when using an aggregated trait value set. Early life stages were more vulnerable to some stressors, such as inorganic pollution or marine heat waves, and less vulnerable to others, such as bycatch. Incorporating spatial distributions of stressors and life stages revealed impacts differ for each life stage across spatial areas, emphasizing the importance of stage-specific conservation measures. Our approach showcases the importance of incorporating dynamic processes into ecological models and will enable better and more targeted conservation actions for species with complex life histories and high mobility.

Seasonal variation in the balance and strength of cooperative and competitive behavior in patches of blue mussels

Aggregation into groups may affect performance of individuals through the balance and strength of facilitative versus competitive interactions. We studied in situ how seasonal variation in abiotic environment affects this balance for blue mussels, a semi-sessile species. We hypothesize that seasonal variation in stresses and resources affects the strength of the interaction. We expected that, in benign conditions (here: high food availability, medium temperatures, low hydrodynamic stress), performance is dominated by growth and is better at low densities, while at adverse conditions (here: low food availability, low or high temperatures, high hydrodynamic stress), performance is dominated by survival and higher at high densities. Mussels were kept in shallow subtidal exclosures at 10 different densities for a one-month period. This exact procedure was repeated seven times at the same location within a one-year period. We measured development in mussel patch shape, performance, and environmental parameters. Environmental conditions for mussels were most benign in summer and most adverse in winter. Patches developed into less complex shapes at lower densities, but also after stronger hydrodynamic disturbances. Towards summer, mussels became more active, aggregation behavior increased, and interactions became more pronounced. Towards winter, mussels became less active: aggregation behavior and growth rates declined and at the lowest temperatures survival started to decrease with mussel density. Survival and growth (by proxy of mussel condition) were both density-dependent; however, contrary to our expectations we found positive interactions between density and survival at the most benign conditions in summer and negative interactions at the most adverse conditions in winter. In between the two seasons, the strength of the interactions increased towards summer and decreased towards winter following a bell-shaped pattern. This pattern might be explained by the environmental mediated aggregation behavior of the mussels. The obvious seasonal pattern in balance and strength of density-dependent interactions demonstrates that strength and direction of intra-specific interactions are both strongly affected by environmental context.

Carryover effects from environmental change in early life: An overlooked driver of the amphibian extinction crisis?

Ecological carryover effects, or delayed effects of the environment on an organism's phenotype, are central predictors of individual fitness and a key issue in conservation biology. Climate change imposes increasingly variable environmental conditions that may be challenging to early life-history stages in animals with complex life histories, leading to detrimental physiological and fitness effects in later life. Yet, the latent nature of carryover effects, combined with the long temporal scales over which they can manifest, means that this phenomenon remains understudied and is often overlooked in short-term studies limited to single life-history stages. Herein, we review evidence for the physiological carryover effects induced by elevated ultraviolet radiation (UVR; 280-400 nm) as a potential contributor to recent amphibian population declines. UVR exposure causes a suite of molecular, cellular and physiological consequences known to underpin carryover effects in other taxa, but there is a lack of research linking embryonic and larval UVR exposures to fitness consequences post-metamorphosis in amphibians. We propose that the key impacts of UVR on disease-related amphibian declines are facilitated through carryover effects that bridge embryonic and larval UVR exposure with potential increased disease susceptibility post-metamorphosis. We conclude by identifying a practical direction for the study of ecological carryover effects in amphibians that could guide future ecological research in the broader field of conservation physiology. Only by addressing carryover effects can many of the mechanistic links between environmental change and population declines be elucidated.

A simulation-based evaluation of methods for estimating census population size of terrestrial game species from genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs

Estimates of wildlife population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Several methods have recently been developed that estimate abundance using kinship relationships observed in genetic samples, particularly parent-offspring pairs. While these methods are similar to traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture, they do not need physical recapture, as individuals are considered recaptured if a sample contains one or more close relatives. This makes methods based on genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs particularly interesting for species for which releasing marked animals back into the population is not desirable or not possible (e.g., harvested fish or game species). However, while these methods have successfully been applied in commercially important fish species, in the absence of life-history data, they are making several assumptions unlikely to be met for harvested terrestrial species. They assume that a sample contains only one generation of parents and one generation of juveniles of the year, while more than two generations can coexist in the hunting bags of long-lived species, or that the sampling probability is the same for each individual, an assumption that is violated when fecundity and/or survival depend on sex or other individual traits. In order to assess the usefulness of kin-based methods to estimate population sizes of terrestrial game species, we simulated population pedigrees of two different species with contrasting demographic strategies (wild boar and red deer), applied four different methods and compared the accuracy and precision of their estimates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis, simulating population pedigrees with varying fecundity characteristics and various levels of harvesting to identify optimal conditions of applicability of each method. We showed that all these methods reached the required levels of accuracy and precision to be effective in wildlife management under simulated circumstances (i.e., for species within a given range of fecundity and for a given range of sampling intensity), while being robust to fecundity variation. Despite the potential usefulness of the methods for terrestrial game species, care is needed as several biases linked to hunting practices still need to be investigated (e.g., when hunting bags are biased toward a particular group of individuals).

Divergent Carry-Over Effects of Hypoxia during the Early Development of Abalone

After being exposed to environmental stimuli during early developmental stages, some organisms may gain or weaken physiological regulating abilities, which would have long-lasting effects on their performance. Environmental hypoxia events can have significant effects on marine organisms, but for breeding programs and other practical applications, it is important to further explore the long-term physiological effects of early hypoxia exposure in economically significant species. In this study, the Pacific abalone Haliotis discus hannai was exposed to moderate hypoxia (∼4 mg/L) from zygote to trochophora, and the assessments of hypoxia tolerance were conducted on the grow-out stage. The results revealed that juvenile abalones exposed to hypoxia at the early development stages were more hypoxia-tolerant but with slower weight growth, a phenomenon called the trade-off between growth and survival. These phenotypic effects driven by the hypoxia exposure were explained by strong selection of genes involved in signal transduction, autophagy, apoptosis, and hormone regulation. Moreover, long non-coding RNA regulation plays an important role modulating carry-over effects by controlling DNA replication and repair, signal transduction, myocardial activity, and hormone regulation. This study revealed that the ability to create favorable phenotypic differentiation through genetic selection and/or epigenetic regulation is important for the survival and development of aquatic animals in the face of rapidly changing environmental conditions.

Unravelling processes between phenotypic plasticity and population dynamics in migratory birds

Populations can rapidly respond to environmental change via adaptive phenotypic plasticity, which can also modify interactions between individuals and their environment, affecting population dynamics. Bird migration is a highly plastic resource‐tracking tactic in seasonal environments. However, the link between the population dynamics of migratory birds and migration tactic plasticity is not well‐understood.

The quality of staging habitats affects individuals' migration timing and energy budgets in the course of migration and can consequently affect individuals' breeding and overwintering performance, and impact population dynamics. Given staging habitats being lost in many parts of the world, our goal is to investigate responses of individual migration tactics and population dynamics in the face of loss of staging habitat and to identify the key processes connecting them.

We started by constructing and analysing a general full‐annual‐cycle individual‐based model with a stylized migratory population to generate hypotheses on how changes in the size of staging habitat might drive changes in individual stopover duration and population dynamics. Next, through the interrogation of survey data, we tested these hypotheses by analysing population trends and stopover duration of migratory waterbirds experiencing the loss of staging habitat.

Our modelling exercise led to us posing the following hypotheses: the loss of staging habitat generates plasticity in migration tactics, with individuals remaining on the staging habitat for longer to obtain food due to a reduction in per capita food availability. The subsequent increasing population density on the staging habitat has knock‐on effects on population dynamics in the breeding and overwintering stage. Our empirical results were consistent with the modelling predictions.

Our results demonstrate how environmental change that impacts one energetically costly life‐history stage in migratory birds can have population dynamic impacts across the entire annual cycle via phenotypic plasticity.

Harvesting can stabilise population fluctuations and buffer the impacts of extreme climatic events

Harvesting can magnify the destabilising effects of environmental perturbations on population dynamics and, thereby, increase extinction risk. However, population-dynamic theory predicts that impacts of harvesting depend on the type and strength of density-dependent regulation. Here, we used logistic population growth models and an empirical reindeer case study to show that low to moderate harvesting can actually buffer populations against environmental perturbations. This occurs because of density-dependent environmental stochasticity, where negative environmental impacts on vital rates are amplified at high population density due to intra-specific resource competition. Simulations from our population models show that even low levels of harvesting may prevent overabundance, thereby dampening population fluctuations and reducing the risk of population collapse and quasi-extinction following environmental perturbations. Thus, depending on the species' life history and the strength of density-dependent environmental drivers, low to moderate harvesting can improve population resistance to increased climate variability and extreme weather expected under global warming.

Transparency About Values and Assertions of Fact in Natural Resource Management

Worldwide, unsustainable use of nature threatens many ecosystems and the services they provide for a broad diversity of life, including humans. Yet, governments commonly claim that the best available science supports their policies governing extraction of natural resources. We confront this apparent paradox by assessing the complexity of the intersections among value judgments, fact claims, and scientifically verified facts. Science can only describe how nature works and predict the likely outcomes of our actions, whereas values influence which actions or objectives society ought to pursue. In the context of natural resource management, particularly of fisheries and wildlife, governments typically set population targets or use quotas. Although these are fundamentally value judgments about how much of a resource a group of people can extract, quotas are often justified as numerical guidance derived from abstracted, mathematical, or theoretical models of extraction. We confront such justifications by examining failures in transparency about value judgments, which may accompany unsupported assertions articulated as factual claims. We illustrate this with two examples. Our first case concerns protection and human use of habitats harboring the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), revealing how biologists and policy scholars have argued for divergent roles of scientists within policy debates, and how debates between scientists engaged in policy-relevant research reveal undisclosed value judgments about communication of science beyond its role as a source of description (observation, measurement, analysis, and inference). Our second case concerns protection and use of endangered gray wolves (Canis lupus) and shows how undisclosed value judgments distorted the science behind a government policy. Finally, we draw from the literature of multiple disciplines and wildlife systems to recommend several improvements to the standards of transparency in applied research in natural resource management. These recommendations will help to prevent value-based distortions of science that can result in unsustainable uses and eventual extinctions of populations. We describe methods for communicating about values that avoid commingling factual claims and discuss approaches to communicating science that do not perpetuate the misconception that science alone can dictate policy without consideration of values. Our remedies can improve transparency in both expert and public debate about preserving and using natural resources, and thereby help prevent non-human population declines worldwide.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Predation yields greater population performance: What are the contributions of density- and trait-mediated effects?

1. Population responses to extrinsic mortality can yield no change in number of survivors (compensation) or an increase in number of survivors (overcompensation) when the population is regulated by negative density-dependence. This intriguing response has been the subject of theoretical studies, but few experiments have explored how the source of extrinsic mortality affects the response. 2. This study tests abilities of three functionally diverse predators, alone and combined, to induce (over)compensation of a prey population. Larval Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) were exposed to predation by Mesocyclops longisetus (Crustacea: Copepoda), Anopheles barberi (Diptera: Culicidae), Corethrella appendiculata (Diptera: Corethrellidae), all three in a substitutive design, or no predation. 3. The number of survivors to adulthood, female size and development time, and a composite index of performance (r') were analysed. Predator treatment did not have a significant effect on total number of survivors, nor on number of males, suggesting mortality by predation was compensatory. Predation significantly affected number of female survivors, with a trend of more females produced with predation, though no post hoc tests were significant. Predation significantly increased female development rate and r' relative to no-predator control. 4. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the change in the number of female adults produced was the largest contributing factor to the differences in r' among cohorts. While predation did not significantly increase overall production of adults, it did release survivors from density-dependent effects sufficiently to increase population performance. This study provides an empirical test of mechanisms by which predation may yield positive effects on a population of victims, a phenomenon predicted to occur across many taxa and food webs.

Life in fluctuating environments

Variability in the environment defines the structure and dynamics of all living systems, from organisms to ecosystems. Species have evolved traits and strategies that allow them to detect, exploit and predict the changing environment. These traits allow organisms to maintain steady internal conditions required for physiological functioning through feedback mechanisms that allow internal conditions to remain at or near a set-point despite a fluctuating environment. In addition to feedback, many organisms have evolved feedforward processes, which allow them to adjust in anticipation of an expected future state of the environment. Here we provide a framework describing how feedback and feedforward mechanisms operating within organisms can generate effects across scales of organization, and how they allow living systems to persist in fluctuating environments. Daily, seasonal and multi-year cycles provide cues that organisms use to anticipate changes in physiologically relevant environmental conditions. Using feedforward mechanisms, organisms can exploit correlations in environmental variables to prepare for anticipated future changes. Strategies to obtain, store and act on information about the conditional nature of future events are advantageous and are evidenced in widespread phenotypes such as circadian clocks, social behaviour, diapause and migrations. Humans are altering the ways in which the environment fluctuates, causing correlations between environmental variables to become decoupled, decreasing the reliability of cues. Human-induced environmental change is also altering sensory environments and the ability of organisms to detect cues. Recognizing that living systems combine feedback and feedforward processes is essential to understanding their responses to current and future regimes of environmental fluctuations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.

Finding the sweet spot: What levels of larval mortality lead to compensation or overcompensation in adult production?

Extrinsic mortality impinging on negatively density-dependent populations can result in no change in the number of survivors (compensation) or an increase (overcompensation) by releasing the population from density-dependent effects on survivorship. The relationship between the level of extrinsic mortality (i.e., percentage of mortality) and the level and likelihood of overcompensation is theoretically important, but rarely investigated. We tested the hypothesis that overcompensation occurs below a threshold value of extrinsic mortality that is related to density-dependent mortality rate, and that additive extrinsic mortality occurs above this threshold. This hypothesis predicts that survivorship vs. extrinsic mortality will: 1) be best described by a two-segmented model with a threshold; 2) have a slope >0 below the threshold; and 3) have a slope=-1 above the threshold. We also tested whether mortality imposed by real predators and random harvest have equivalent effects on adult production, and whether magnitude of overcompensation is related to species sensitivity to density-dependence. These hypotheses were tested in the container mosquitoes Aedes aegypti, A. albopictus, A. triseriatus, and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae). Cohorts of 150 larvae were exposed to random harvest of 0-70% two days after hatch or to predation by 1-3 Mesocyclops longisetus (Crustacea: Copepoda). Overcompensation occurred in A. aegypti in a pattern consistent with predictions. Aedes triseriatus showed strong overcompensation but no evidence of a threshold, whereas A. albopictus and C. pipiens had survival consistent with compensatory mortality but no evidence of a threshold. Compared to random harvest, mortality from predation yielded greater adult production in A. aegypti and A. albopictus, lesser adult production in C. pipiens, and no difference in adult production in A. triseriatus. Our results are largely consistent with our hypothesis about overcompensation, with the caveat that thresholds for additive mortality appear to occur at very high levels of extrinsic mortality. Magnitudes of overcompensation for the three Aedes were inversely related to survival in the 0% mortality treatment, consistent with our hypothesis that overcompensation is related to sensitivity to density-dependence. A broad range of extrinsic mortality levels can yield overcompensation, which may have practical implications for attempts to control pest populations.

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes.

Large trees are surrounded by more heterospecific neighboring trees in Korean pine broad-leaved natural forests

Negative conspecific density dependence is one of the principal mechanisms affecting plant performance and community spatial patterns. Although many studies identified the prevalence of density dependent effects in various vegetation types by analyzing conspecific spatial dispersal patterns (spatial patterning) of forest trees, interactions between individuals and heterospecific neighboring trees caused by density-dependent effects are often neglected. The effects of negative density dependence lead us to expect that neighbourhood species segregation would increase with increasing tree size and that larger trees would be surrounded by more heterospecific neighbours than would smaller trees. We studied four mapped 1-Ha plots on Changbaishan Mountain in North-eastern China and used marked point pattern analysis to explore whether trees of different sizes exhibited differences in neighbourhood species segregation; we also determined whether larger trees were more likely to have heterospecific neighbours than smaller trees were. Our results show that bigger trees generally have higher species mingling levels. Neighborhood species segregation ranged from lower than expected levels to random or nearly random patterns at small scales as tree size classes increased under heterogeneous Poisson null model tests. This study provides some evidence in support of negative density dependent effects in temperate forests.

Effects of tannins on population dynamics of sympatric seed-eating rodents: the potential role of gut tannin-degrading bacteria

Chemical compounds in seeds exert negative and even lethal effects on seed-consuming animals. Tannin-degrading bacteria in the guts of small mammals have been associated with the ability to digest seeds high in tannins. At the population level, it is not known if tannins influence rodent species differently according to the composition of their gut microbiota. Here, we test the hypothesis that sympatric tree species with different tannins exert contrasting effects on population fluctuations of seed-eating rodents. We collected a 10-year dataset of seed crops and rodent population sizes and sequenced 16S rRNA of gut microbes. The abundance of Apodemus peninsulae was not correlated with seed crop of either high-tannin Quercus mongolica or low-tannin Corylus mandshurica, but positively correlated with their total seed crops. Abundance of Tamias sibiricus was negatively correlated with seed crop of Q. mongolica but positively correlated with C. mandshurica. Body masses of A. peninsulae and T. sibiricus decreased when given high-tannin food; however, only the survival of T. sibiricus was reduced. The abundance of microbial genus Lactobacillus exhibiting potential tannin-degrading activity was significantly higher in A. peninsulae than in T. sibiricus. Our results suggest that masting tree species with different tannin concentrations may differentially influence population fluctuations of seed predators hosting different gut microbial communities. Although the conclusion is based on just correlational analysis of a short time-series, seeds with different chemical composition may influence rodent populations differently. Future work should examine these questions further to understand the complex interactions among seeds, gut microbes, and animal populations.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature.

Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles.

Effects of density dependence in a temperate forest in northeastern China

Negative density dependence may cause reduced clustering among individuals of the same species, and evidence is accumulating that conspecific density-dependent self-thinning is an important mechanism regulating the spatial structure of plant populations. This study evaluates that specific density dependence in three very large observational studies representing three successional stages in a temperate forest in northeastern China. The methods include standard spatial point pattern analysis and a heterogeneous Poisson process as the null model to eliminate the effects of habitat heterogeneity. The results show that most of the species exhibit conspecific density-dependent self-thinning. In the early successional stage 11 of the 16 species, in the intermediate successional stage 18 of the 21 species and in the old growth stage all 21 species exhibited density dependence after removing the effects of habitat heterogeneity. The prevalence of density dependence thus varies among the three successional stages and exhibits an increase with increasing successional stage. The proportion of species showing density dependence varied depending on whether habitat heterogeneity was removed or not. Furthermore, the strength of density dependence is closely related with species abundance. Abundant species with high conspecific aggregation tend to exhibit greater density dependence than rare species.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan

Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km ² . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area.

An updated perspective on the role of environmental autocorrelation in animal populations

Ecological theory predicts that the presence of temporal autocorrelation in environments can considerably affect population extinction risk. However, empirical estimates of autocorrelation values in animal populations have not decoupled intrinsic growth and density feedback processes from environmental autocorrelation. In this study we first discuss how the autocorrelation present in environmental covariates can be reduced through nonlinear interactions or by interactions with multiple limiting resources. We then estimated the degree of environmental autocorrelation present in the Global Population Dynamics Database using a robust, model-based approach. Our empirical results indicate that time series of animal populations are affected by low levels of environmental autocorrelation, a result consistent with predictions from our theoretical models. Claims supporting the importance of autocorrelated environments have been largely based on indirect empirical measures and theoretical models seldom anchored in realistic assumptions. It is likely that a more nuanced understanding of the effects of autocorrelated environments is necessary to reconcile our conclusions with previous theory. We anticipate that our findings and other recent results will lead to improvements in understanding how to incorporate fluctuating environments into population risk assessments.

Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments

The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.

Potential Impact of Carry-Over Effects in the Dynamics and Management of Seasonal Populations

For many species living in changing environments, processes during one season influence vital rates in a subsequent season in the same annual cycle. The interplay between these carry-over effects between seasons and other density-dependent events can have a strong influence on population size and variability. We carry out a theoretical study of a discrete semelparous population model with an annual cycle divided into a breeding and a non-breeding season; the model assumes carry-over effects coming from the non-breeding period and affecting breeding performance through a density-dependent adjustment of the growth rate parameter. We analyze the influence of carry-over effects on population size, focusing on two important aspects: compensatory mortality and population variability. To understand the potential consequences of carry-over effects for management, we have introduced constant effort harvesting in the model. Our results show that carry-over effects may induce dramatic changes in population stability as harvesting pressure is increased, but these changes strongly depend on whether harvesting occurs prior to reproduction or after it.

Non-breeding season habitat quality mediates the strength of density-dependence for a migratory bird

Our understanding of when natural populations are regulated during their annual cycle is limited, particularly for migratory species. This information is needed for parametrizing models that can inform management and conservation. Here, we use 14 years of data on colour-marked birds to investigate how conspecific density and habitat quality during the tropical non-breeding period interact to affect body condition and apparent annual survival of a long-distance migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophagaruticilla). Body condition and survival of birds in high-quality mangrove habitat declined as density increased. By contrast, body condition improved and survival did not vary as density increased in adjacent, lower quality scrub habitat, although mean condition and survival were almost always lower than in mangrove. High rainfall enhanced body condition in scrub but not in mangrove, suggesting factors such as food availability outweighed consequences of crowding in lower quality habitat. Thus, survival of overwintering redstarts in mangrove habitat, disproportionately males,appears to be regulated by a crowding mechanism based on density-dependent resource competition. Survival of individuals in scrub, mostly females, appears to be limited by density-independent environmental factors but not regulated by crowding. The contrasting effects of density and food limitation on individuals overwintering in adjacent habitats illustrate the complexity of processes operating during the non-breeding period for migratory animals, and emphasize the need for long-term studies of animals in multiple habitats and throughout their annual cycles.

Drivers of seedling survival in a temperate forest and their relative importance at three stages of succession

Negative density dependence (NDD) and niche partitioning have been perceived as important mechanisms for the maintenance of species diversity. However, little is known about their relative contributions to seedling survival. We examined the effects of biotic and abiotic neighborhoods and the variations of biotic neighborhoods among species using survival data for 7503 seedlings belonging to 22 woody species over a period of 2 years in three different forest types, a half-mature forest (HF), a mature forest (MF), and an old-growth forest (OGF), each of these representing a specific successional stage in a temperate forest ecosystem in northeastern China. We found a convincing evidence for the existence of NDD in temperate forest ecosystems. The biotic and abiotic variables affecting seedlings survival change with successional stage, seedling size, and age. The strength of NDD for the smaller (<20 cm in height) and younger seedlings (1-2 years) as well as all seedlings combined varies significantly among species. We found no evidence that a community compensatory trend (CCT) existed in our study area. The results of this study demonstrate that the relative importance of NDD and habitat niche partitioning in driving seedling survival varies with seedling size and age and that the biotic and abiotic factors affecting seedlings survival change with successional stage.

Negative density dependence regulates two tree species at later life stage in a temperate forest

Numerous studies have demonstrated that tree survival is influenced by negative density dependence (NDD) and differences among species in shade tolerance could enhance coexistence via resource partitioning, but it is still unclear how NDD affects tree species with different shade-tolerance guilds at later life stages. In this study, we analyzed the spatial patterns for trees with dbh (diameter at breast height) ≥2 cm using the pair-correlation g(r) function to test for NDD in a temperate forest in South Korea after removing the effects of habitat heterogeneity. The analyses were implemented for the most abundant shade-tolerant (Chamaecyparis obtusa) and shade-intolerant (Quercus serrata) species. We found NDD existed for both species at later life stages. We also found Quercus serrata experienced greater NDD compared with Chamaecyparis obtusa. This study indicates that NDD regulates the two abundant tree species at later life stages and it is important to consider variation in species' shade tolerance in NDD study.

Density-mediated carry-over effects explain variation in breeding output across time in a seasonal population

In seasonal environments, where density dependence can operate throughout the annual cycle, vital rates are typically considered to be a function of the number of individuals at the beginning of each season. However, variation in density in the previous season could also cause surviving individuals to be in poor physiological condition, which could carry over to influence individual success in the following season. We examine this hypothesis using replicated populations of Drosophila melanogaster, the common fruitfly, over 23 non-overlapping generations with distinct breeding and non-breeding seasons. We found that the density at the beginning of the non-breeding season negatively affected the fresh weight of individuals that survived the non-breeding season and resulted in a 25% decrease in per capita breeding output among those that survived to the next season to breed. At the population level, per capita breeding output was best explained by a model that incorporated density at the beginning of the previous non-breeding season (carry-over effect, COE) and density at the beginning of the breeding season. Our results support the idea that density-mediated COEs are critical for understanding population dynamics in seasonal environments.

Environmental conditions during breeding modify the strength of mass-dependent carry-over effects in a migratory bird

In many animals, processes occurring in one season carry over to influence reproductive success and survival in future seasons. The strength of such carry-over effects is unlikely to be uniform across years, yet our understanding of the processes that are capable of modifying their strength remains limited. Here we show that female light-bellied Brent geese with higher body mass prior to spring migration successfully reared more offspring during breeding, but only in years where environmental conditions during breeding were favourable. In years of bad weather during breeding, all birds suffered reduced reproductive output irrespective of pre-migration mass. Our results suggest that the magnitude of reproductive benefits gained by maximising body stores to fuel breeding fluctuates markedly among years in concert with conditions during the breeding season, as does the degree to which carry-over effects are capable of driving variance in reproductive success among individuals. Therefore while carry-over effects have considerable power to drive fitness asymmetries among individuals, our ability to interpret these effects in terms of their implications for population dynamics is dependent on knowledge of fitness determinants occurring in subsequent seasons. 

Carry-over effects, sequential density dependence and the dynamics of populations in a seasonal environment

Most animal populations have distinct breeding and non-breeding periods, yet the implications of seasonality on population dynamics are not well understood. Here, we introduce an experimental model system to study the population dynamics of two important consequences of seasonality: sequential density dependence and carry-over effects (COEs). Using a replicated seasonal population of Drosophila, we placed individuals at four densities in the non-breeding season and then, among those that survived, placed them to breed at three different densities. We show that COEs arising from variation in non-breeding density negatively impacts individual performance by reducing per capita breeding output by 29-77%, implying that non-lethal COEs can have a strong influence on population abundance. We then parametrized a bi-seasonal population model from the experimental results, and show that both sequential density dependence and COEs can stabilize long-term population dynamics and that COEs can reduce population size at low intrinsic rates of growth. Our results have important implications for predicting the successful colonization of new habitats, and for understanding the long-term persistence of seasonal populations in a wide range of taxa, including migratory organisms.

Density dependence across multiple life stages in a temperate old-growth forest of northeast China

Recent studies on species coexistence suggest that density dependence is an important mechanism regulating plant populations. However, there have been few studies of density dependence conducted for more than one life-history stage or that control for habitat heterogeneity, which may influence spatial patterns of survival and mask density dependence. We explored the prevalence of density dependence across multiple life stages, and the effects of controlling for habitat heterogeneity, in a temperate forest in northeast China. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to test for density-dependent mortality of seedlings and spatial point pattern analysis to detect density dependence for sapling-to-juvenile transitions. Conspecific neighbors had a negative effect on survival of plants in both life stages. At the seedling stage, we found a negative effect of conspecific seedling neighbors on survival when analyzing all species combined. However, in species-level analyses, only 2 of 11 focal species were negatively impacted by conspecific neighbors, indicating wide variation among species in the strength of density dependence. Controlling for habitat heterogeneity did not alter our findings of density dependence at the seedling stage. For the sapling-to-juvenile transition stage, 11 of 15 focal species showed patterns of local scale (<10 m) conspecific thinning, consistent with negative density dependence. The results varied depending on whether we controlled for habitat heterogeneity, indicating that a failure to account for habitat heterogeneity can obscure patterns of density dependence. We conclude that density dependence may promote tree species coexistence by acting across multiple life-history stages in this temperate forest.

Density dependence: an ecological Tower of Babel

The concept of density dependence represents the effect of changing population size on demographic rates and captures the demographic role of social and trophic mechanisms (e.g. competition, cooperation, parasitism or predation). Ecologists have coined more than 60 terms to denote different statistical and semantic properties of this concept, resulting in a formidable lexicon of synonymies and polysemies. We have examined the vocabulary of density dependence used in the modern ecological literature from the foundational lexicon developed by Smith, Allee, Haldane, Neave and Varley. A few simple rules suffice to abate terminological inconsistency and to enhance the biological meaning of this important concept. Correct citation of original references by ecologists and research journals could ameliorate terminological standards in our discipline and avoid linguistic confusion of mathematically and theoretically complex patterns.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Biased sex ratio and low population density increase male mating success in the bug Nysius huttoni (Heteroptera: Lygaeidae)

Demographic factors such as operational sex ratio (OSR) and local population density (LPD) are temporally and spatially dynamic in the natural environment but the influence of these variables on male mating success and the mechanisms behind it are still poorly understood and highly controversial. Here, we manipulated the OSR and LPD of a seed bug, Nysius huttoni, and carried out a series of mating trials to test how these variables affected male mating success. The two demographic factors had no significant interactions, suggesting that they affect male mating success independently in N. huttoni. In this species male mating success was significantly higher in both male- and female-biased OSR than in even OSR. It is suggested that, in male-biased OSR, the increased intensity of competition and interference does not result in lower male mating success; rather, males may make more effort in courting and females may have more chance to encounter better males, resulting in higher male mating success. In female-biased OSR, females may become less choosy and less likely to reject male mating attempt, leading to the higher male mating success. Lower male mating success in N. huttoni in high LPD may be due to increased interference between males and/or delayed female receptiveness for mating. OSR had a stronger effect on male mating success than LPD in N. huttoni, suggesting that OSR and LPD affect mating success in different ways and intensities.