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Müller T, Wallace RM, Freuling CM. Rabies importation in dogs and reduction of waiting period - The fear for scientifically justified changes. Vaccine 2024; 42:1855-1859. [PMID: 37866997 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.08.077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Revised: 08/23/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Müller
- Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany; WOAH Reference Laboratory for Rabies, Germany.
| | - Ryan M Wallace
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Division of High Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA; WOAH Reference Laboratory for Rabies, USA
| | - Conrad M Freuling
- Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany; WOAH Reference Laboratory for Rabies, Germany
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2
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Negligible risk of rabies importation in dogs thirty days after demonstration of adequate serum antibody titer. Vaccine 2021; 39:2496-2499. [PMID: 33824040 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Revised: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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3
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Ward MP, Brookes VJ. Rabies in Our Neighbourhood: Preparedness for an Emerging Infectious Disease. Pathogens 2021; 10:375. [PMID: 33804778 PMCID: PMC8003993 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10030375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2021] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Emerging infectious disease (EID) events have the potential to cause devastating impacts on human, animal and environmental health. A range of tools exist which can be applied to address EID event detection, preparedness and response. Here we use a case study of rabies in Southeast Asia and Oceania to illustrate, via nearly a decade of research activities, how such tools can be systematically integrated into a framework for EID preparedness. During the past three decades, canine rabies has spread to previously free areas of Southeast Asia, threatening the rabies-free status of countries such as Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The program of research to address rabies preparedness in the Oceanic region has included scanning and surveillance to define the emerging nature of canine rabies within the Southeast Asia region; field studies to collect information on potential reservoir species, their distribution and behaviour; participatory and sociological studies to identify priorities for disease response; and targeted risk assessment and disease modelling studies. Lessons learnt include the need to develop methods to collect data in remote regions, and the need to continuously evaluate and update requirements for preparedness in response to evolving drivers of emerging infectious disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael P. Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW 2570, Australia
| | - Victoria J. Brookes
- School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Faculty of Science, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia;
- Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (NSW Department of Primary Industries and Charles Sturt University), Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia
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Evaluation of the Worldwide Occurrence of Rabies in Dogs and Cats Using a Simple and Homogenous Framework for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Rabies Reintroduction in Disease-Free Areas through Pet Movements. Vet Sci 2020; 7:vetsci7040207. [PMID: 33353001 PMCID: PMC7766548 DOI: 10.3390/vetsci7040207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Revised: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 12/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Dog and cat rabies cases imported from rabies enzootic countries represent a major threat for areas that have acquired rabies-free status and quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) are developed in order to assess this risk of rabies reintroduction through dog and cat movements. Herein we describe a framework to evaluate dog and cat rabies incidence levels in exporting countries along with the associated uncertainty for such QRAs. For enzootic dog rabies areas (EDRAs), we extended and adapted a previously published method to specify the relationship between dog rabies vaccination coverage and canine rabies incidence; the relationship between dog and cat rabies incidences; and then to predict annual dog and cat rabies incidences. In non-enzootic dog rabies areas (nEDRAs), we provided annual incidence based on declared dog and cat rabies cases. For EDRAs, we predicted an annual incidence potentially greater than 1.5% in dogs and about ten times lower in cats with a high burden in Africa and Asia but much lower in Latin America. In nEDRAs, the occurrence of rabies was lower and of similar magnitude in dogs and cats. However, wildlife could still potentially infect dogs and cats through spillover events. This framework can directly be incorporated in QRAs of rabies reintroduction.
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Kato T, Haga T, Sugiura K. Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through animals accidentally placed in international freight containers. Prev Vet Med 2020; 185:105179. [PMID: 33099150 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.105179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2020] [Revised: 10/06/2020] [Accepted: 10/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place to protect the country from the introduction of the disease. With an increasing number of freight containers arriving in Japan every year, there is a concern that rabies might be reintroduced into Japan through animals arriving in international freight containers. A stochastic simulation model was built assuming the following entry and exposure pathway as being the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected animal is accidentally placed in a freight container in the country of origin; it survives transportation from the moment the container is sealed in the country of origin until it is opened at the destination in Japan; and it escapes from the container when it is opened at the destination in Japan. Input parameter values were based on surveys of container handling and warehouse agencies and scientific data from the literature. The annual probability of rabies introduction through this pathway worldwide was 5.47 × 10-6 (90 % PI: 9.72 × 10-7-1.33 × 10-5), or rabies would enter Japan every 368,864 (90 %PI: 75,267 - 1,027,568) years. Among sub-regions, the annual probability was highest for South-eastern Asia (4.54 × 10-6 (90 % PI: 8.04 × 10-7-1.11 × 10-5)), followed by Eastern Asia and Southern Asia. The rabies introduction risk from other sub-regions was negligible. The result of scenario analysis indicated that even if any of the main parameters changes, the risk of rabies introduction still remains very low, suggesting that unintentional movement of animals through international freight containers is not a very important pathway of rabies introduction into Japan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takuma Kato
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
| | - Takeshi Haga
- Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
| | - Katsuaki Sugiura
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
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6
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Protection of Animals during Transport: Analysis of the Infringements Reported from 2009 to 2013 during On-Road Inspections in Italy. Animals (Basel) 2020; 10:ani10020356. [PMID: 32098450 PMCID: PMC7070427 DOI: 10.3390/ani10020356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2020] [Revised: 02/11/2020] [Accepted: 02/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary On-road inspections of vehicles that transport animals are mandatory in Europe. Infringements of the Council Regulation (EC) 1/2005 that were ascertained by competent authorities during on-road inspections published by the Italian Health Ministry from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed. The aims were both to identify possible routes or species that are more likely to be at risk of poor welfare conditions and to suggest recommendations. A total of 985 infringements were reported. For analysis, they were split into three main categories that were related to animal welfare (AW), vehicle (V), and accompanying documents (D). Each category was further classified under different subcategories (e.g., overcrowding for AW, lack of drinking system for V, and lack of health certificate for D). The most frequent infringements were related to D (34.4%), but more than one infringement was often found during an inspection (mean: 1.58; max: 9). A score (from 1 to 3) that was related to the severity of the animal-welfare issues was created which was found to be associated with year, species, authority, and country of dispatch (p < 0.001). Over the years, the only improvement was in the accompanying documentation. Vehicles that were transporting pigs, sheep, or goats were more likely to have the poorest welfare conditions, whilst vehicles that were transporting horses or other species, including dogs, were often found with irregular documentation. AW infringements were more likely to be uncovered during road inspections where traffic police and veterinarians worked together. This type of road inspection should be intensified so as to enhance animal welfare during transportation. Abstract Council Regulation (EC) No 1/2005 requires that vehicles that are transporting animals be subjected to checks conducted by competent authorities. Yearly, each member state sends a report to the European government on the infringements that have been discovered during on-road inspections. The reports that were published by the Italian Ministry of Public Health from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed. Possible associations between the type of infringement (related to animal welfare (AW), vehicle (V) and accompanying documents (D)), year, season, transported species, place of inspection, and competent authorities were identified. A total of 985 infringements were analyzed, with some vehicles receiving more than one (mean: 1.58; max: 9). A score (from 1 to 3) that was related to the severity of the infringements was created. In 2009 and 2010, there was a 50% higher probability of encountering penalties of a lower severity (D or V) than in 2011 (p < 0.0001). Vehicles that were transporting pigs showed the highest probability of committing animal welfare-related infringements (odds ratio (OR) = 3.85, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.82–8.76, p < 0.0001). Vehicles were four times more likely to suffer animal welfare-related penalties when traffic police worked in synergy with veterinary services (OR = 4.12, 95%CI = 1.70–11.13, p = 0.0005). Vehicles that were transporting Equidae and “other species,” including pets, for commercial purposes were more likely to be fined for a lack or incompleteness of the veterinary documents than those transporting cattle (p = 0.002 and p = 0.004, respectively). This study gives statistical evidence of the implementation of EC 1/2005. The training of transporters and drivers on how to manage transport in an animal welfare-friendly manner and a standardized method on how to conduct road inspections among competent authorities are recommended.
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Risk assessment for recrudescence of avian influenza in caged layer houses following depopulation: the effect of cleansing, disinfection and dismantling of equipment. Animal 2020; 14:1536-1545. [PMID: 32051058 DOI: 10.1017/s175173112000018x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in a poultry house, control measures are put in place to prevent further spread. An essential part of the control measures based on the European Commission Avian Influenza Directive 2005/94/EC is the cleansing and disinfection (C&D) of infected premises. Cleansing and disinfection includes both preliminary and secondary C&D, and the dismantling of complex equipment during secondary C&D is also required, which is costly to the owner and also delays the secondary cleansing process, hence increasing the risk for onward spread. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment is presented to assess the risk of re-infection (recrudescence) occurring in an enriched colony-caged layer poultry house on restocking with chickens after different C&D scenarios. The risk is expressed as the number of restocked poultry houses expected before recrudescence occurs. Three C&D scenarios were considered, namely (i) preliminary C&D alone, (ii) preliminary C&D plus secondary C&D without dismantling and (iii) preliminary C&D plus secondary C&D with dismantling. The source-pathway-receptor framework was used to construct the model, and parameterisation was based on the three C&D scenarios. Two key operational variables in the model are (i) the time between depopulation of infected birds and restocking with new birds (TbDR) and (ii) the proportion of infected material that bypasses C&D, enabling virus to survive the process. Probability distributions were used to describe these two parameters for which there was recognised variability between premises in TbDR or uncertainty due to lack of information in the fraction of bypass. The risk assessment estimates that the median (95% credible intervals) number of repopulated poultry houses before recrudescence are 1.2 × 104 (50 to 2.8 × 106), 1.9 × 105 (780 to 5.7 × 107) and 1.1 × 106 (4.2 × 103 to 2.9 × 108) under C&D scenarios (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Thus for HPAIV in caged layers, undertaking secondary C&D without dismantling reduces the risk by 16-fold compared to preliminary C&D alone. Dismantling has an additional, although smaller, impact, reducing the risk by a further 6-fold and thus around 90-fold compared to preliminary C&D alone. On the basis of the 95% credible intervals, the model demonstrates the importance of secondary C&D (with or without dismantling) over preliminary C&D alone. However, the extra protection afforded by dismantling may not be cost beneficial in the context of reduced risk of onward spread.
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Yamada A, Makita K, Kadowaki H, Ito N, Sugiyama M, Kwan NC, Sugiura K. A Comparative Review of Prevention of Rabies Incursion between Japan and Other Rabies-Free Countries or Regions. Jpn J Infect Dis 2019; 72:203-210. [DOI: 10.7883/yoken.jjid.2018.431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Akio Yamada
- Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo
| | - Kohei Makita
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine, Rakuno Gakuen University
| | - Hazumu Kadowaki
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine, Rakuno Gakuen University
| | - Naoto Ito
- Joint Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Applied Biological Sciences, Gifu University
| | - Makoto Sugiyama
- Joint Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Applied Biological Sciences, Gifu University
| | - Nigel C.L. Kwan
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo
| | - Katsuaki Sugiura
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo
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Burgado J, Greenberg L, Niezgoda M, Kumar A, Olson V, Wu X, Satheshkumar PS. A high throughput neutralization test based on GFP expression by recombinant rabies virus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0007011. [PMID: 30550592 PMCID: PMC6310286 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Revised: 12/28/2018] [Accepted: 11/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The effectiveness of rabies vaccination in both humans and animals is determined by the presence of virus neutralizing antibodies (VNAs). The Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test (RFFIT) is the method traditionally used for detection and quantification of VNAs. It is a functional in vitro test for assessing the ability of antibodies in serum to bind and prevent infection of cultured cells with rabies virus (RABV). The RFFIT is a labor intensive, low throughput and semi-quantitative assay performed by trained laboratorians. It requires staining of RABV-infected cells by rabies specific fluorescent antibodies and manual quantification of fluorescent fields for titer determination. Although the quantification of fluorescent fields observed in each sample is recorded, the corresponding images are not stored or captured to be used for future analysis. To circumvent several of these disadvantages, we have developed an alternative, automated high throughput neutralization test (HTNT) for determination of rabies VNAs based on green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression by a recombinant RABV and compared with the RFFIT. The HTNT assay utilizes the recombinant RABV ERA variant expressing GFP with a nuclear localization signal (NLS) for efficient quantification. The HTNT is a quantitative method where the number of RABV-infected cells are determined and the images are stored for future analysis. Both RFFIT and HTNT results correlated 100% for a panel of human and animal positive and negative rabies serum samples. Although, the VNA titer values are generally agreeable, HTNT titers tend to be lower than that of RFFIT, probably due to the differences in quantification methods. Our data demonstrates the potential for HTNT assays in determination of rabies VNA titers. The potency of rabies vaccine is demonstrated by the presence of virus neutralizing antibodies (VNAs) in serum. It is critical to evaluate immunologic status of individuals who work directly with rabies virus (RABV) (laboratorians) or at high risk of infection due to interaction with animals (veterinarians and animal control workers). In addition, rabies vaccination records and demonstration of VNAs in animals are mandatory before initiating pet travel to rabies-free counties or regions. Rabies VNAs are currently determined by the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT) and the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization (FAVN) test, which measure the ability of antibodies to bind and prevent infection of RABV in vitro. Both assays require staining of infected cells using anti-rabies antibodies and manual observation of infected cells by a fluorescent microscope to determine VNA titers. In this study, we have developed a GFP reporter-based high throughput neutralization test (HTNT) for automated quantification of infected cells. This method has the advantages of allowing investigators to analyze and store the results, and can accommodate large sample sizes. Overall, the results from HTNT exhibited 100% correlation with that of RFFIT, albeit with differences in rabies VNA titer values due to quantification methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jillybeth Burgado
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Lauren Greenberg
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Mike Niezgoda
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Amrita Kumar
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Victoria Olson
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Xianfu Wu
- Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Hudson EG, Brookes VJ, Ward MP. Assessing the Risk of a Canine Rabies Incursion in Northern Australia. Front Vet Sci 2017; 4:141. [PMID: 28913341 PMCID: PMC5583209 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2017.00141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2017] [Accepted: 08/14/2017] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Rabies is a globally distributed virus that causes approximately 60,00 human deaths annually with >99% of cases caused by dog bites. Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, the recent eastward spread of rabies in the Indonesian archipelago has increased the probability of rabies entry into northern Australian communities. In addition, many northern Australian communities have large populations of free-roaming dogs, capable of maintaining rabies should an incursion occur. A risk assessment of rabies entry and transmission into these communities is needed to target control and surveillance measures. Illegal transportation of rabies-infected dogs via boat landings is a high-risk entry pathway and was the focus of the current study. A quantitative, stochastic, risk assessment model was developed to evaluate the risk of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula, Australia, and rabies introduction to resident dogs in one of the communities via transport of rabies-infected dogs on illegal Indonesian fishing boats. Parameter distributions were derived from expert opinion, literature, and analysis of field studies. The estimated median probability of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula and into Seisia from individual fishing boats was 1.9 × 10−4/boat and 8.7 × 10−6/boat, respectively. The estimated annual probability that at least one rabies-infected dog enters north-west Cape York Peninsula and into Seisia was 5.5 × 10−3 and 3.5 × 10−4, respectively. The estimated median probability of rabies introduction into Seisia was 4.7 × 10−8/boat, and the estimated annual probability that at least one rabies-infected dog causes rabies transmission in a resident Seisia dog was 8.3 × 10−5. Sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method highlighted some parameters as influential, including but not limited to the prevalence of rabies in Indonesia, the probability of a dog on board an Indonesian fishing boat, and the probability of a Seisia dog being on the beach. Overall, the probabilities of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula and rabies introduction into Seisia are low. However, the potential devastating consequences of a rabies incursion in this region make this a non-negligible risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily G Hudson
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW Australia
| | - Victoria J Brookes
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW Australia
| | - Michael P Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW Australia
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11
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Brookes VJ, Keponge-Yombo A, Thomson D, Ward MP. Risk assessment of the entry of canine-rabies into Papua New Guinea via sea and land routes. Prev Vet Med 2017; 145:49-66. [PMID: 28903875 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.06.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2016] [Revised: 05/20/2017] [Accepted: 06/13/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
Canine-rabies is endemic in parts of Indonesia and continues to spread eastwards through the Indonesian archipelago. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a land border with Papua Province, Indonesia, as well as logging and fishing industry connections throughout Asia. PNG has a Human Development Index of 0.505; therefore, an incursion of canine-rabies could have devastating impacts on human (7.5 million) and animal populations. Given the known difficulties of rabies elimination in resource-scarce environments, an incursion of rabies into PNG would also likely compromise the campaign for global elimination of rabies. A previous qualitative study to determine routes for detailed risk assessment identified logging, fishing and three land-routes (unregulated crossers ["shopper-crossers"], traditional border crossers and illegal hunters) as potential high risk routes for entry of rabies-infected dogs into PNG. The objective of the current study was to quantify and compare the probability of entry of a rabies-infected dog via these routes into PNG and to identify the highest risk provinces and border districts to target rabies prevention and control activities. Online questionnaires were used to elicit expert-opinion about quantitative model parameter values. A quantitative, stochastic model was then used to assess risk, and parameters with the greatest influence on the estimated mean number of rabies-infected dogs introduced/year were identified via global sensitivity analysis (Sobol method). Eight questionnaires - including 7 online - were implemented and >220 empirical distributions were parameterised using >2900 expert-opinions. The highest risk provinces for combined sea routes were West Sepik, Madang and Western Province, driven by the number of vessels and the probability of bringing dogs. The highest risk border districts for combined land routes were Vanimo-Green River and South Fly, driven by the number of people crossing the border and the number of dogs (with hunters). Overall, the risk posed by land routes was much higher than the risk of rabies introduction by sea routes. This study provides a foundation to develop targeted border control measures, surveillance and response strategies for canine-rabies for the highest risk routes and regions in PNG. Sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method played a key role in this study and directed further data collection to refine risk estimates. The ease of expert-elicitation using online methods demonstrates the feasibility of using such methods for animal and human disease surveillance in PNG.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria J Brookes
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, NSW 2570, Australia.
| | - Andy Keponge-Yombo
- National Agriculture Quarantine and Inspection Authority, PO Box 741, Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New Guinea
| | - David Thomson
- National Agriculture Quarantine and Inspection Authority, PO Box 741, Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New Guinea
| | - Michael P Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, NSW 2570, Australia
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12
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Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the importation of dogs and cats worldwide. Epidemiol Infect 2017; 145:1168-1182. [PMID: 28095930 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268816002995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10-9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10-11-6·48 × 10-9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170-94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.
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13
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Simons RRL, Horigan V, Gale P, Kosmider RD, Breed AC, Snary EL. A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0165383. [PMID: 27788234 PMCID: PMC5082878 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2015] [Accepted: 10/11/2016] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places). Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility of rapid parameterisation demonstrates its potential for use in an outbreak situation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robin R. L. Simons
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Verity Horigan
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Gale
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Rowena D. Kosmider
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew C. Breed
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - Emma L. Snary
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Department of Epidemiological Sciences, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
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14
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Brookes VJ, Ward MP. Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea. Zoonoses Public Health 2016; 64:156-160. [PMID: 27362859 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- V J Brookes
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia
| | - M P Ward
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia
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15
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Kwan NCL, Ogawa H, Yamada A, Sugiura K. Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido, Japan. Prev Vet Med 2016; 128:112-23. [PMID: 27237397 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2015] [Revised: 04/22/2016] [Accepted: 04/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place protecting the country from the introduction of the disease. Historical reviews indicate that the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido occurred frequently especially in the early 2000s and this could potentially be a source of introduction of rabies into Japan. The method of scenario tree modelling was used and the following entry and exposure pathway was considered the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected dog arriving on a Russian fishing boat lands in a port of Hokkaido in Japan, it becomes infectious, contacts and infects a susceptible domestic animal (companion dog, stray dog or wildlife). Input parameter values were based on surveys of Russian fishermen, expert opinion and scientific data from the literature. At present (2006-2015), the probability of the introduction of rabies as a result of one Russian fishing boat arriving at a port of Hokkaido is 8.33×10(-10) (90% Prediction Interval (PI): 7.15×10(-11)-5.34×10(-9)), while this probability would have been 7.70×10(-9) (90% PI: 6.40×10(-10)-4.81×10(-8)) in the past (1998-2005). Under the current situation (average annual number of boat arrivals is 1106), rabies would enter Japan every 1,084,849 (90% PI: 169,215-20,188,348) years, while the disease would have been introduced every 18,309 (90% PI: 2929-220,048) years in the past (average annual number of boat arrivals is 7092). The risk of rabies introduction has decreased 59 fold due to both the effective control of the issue of illegal landing of dogs and the decline in the number of Russian boat arrivals. Control efforts include education of Russian fishermen, establishment of warning signs, daily patrols and regular port surveillance of potential dog landing activity. Furthermore, scenario analysis revealed that the policy of mandatory domestic dog vaccination does not contribute effectively to Japan's rabies prevention system under rabies-free situation. Although the current risk of rabies introduction is minimal, control measures against the illegal landing of dogs must be maintained. Further risk management measures, such as the removal of wildlife from the port area and regular monitoring of the rabies situation in Russia (particularly the easternmost regions), can be established to strengthen the current rabies prevention system in Hokkaido.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nigel C L Kwan
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
| | - Hidehito Ogawa
- Kamikawa Livestock Hygiene Service Center, 4-15 Asahikawa, Kamikawa-shicho, Hokkaido 071-8154, Japan
| | - Akio Yamada
- Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
| | - Katsuaki Sugiura
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
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16
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Klevar S, Høgåsen HR, Davidson RK, Hamnes IS, Treiberg Berndtsson L, Lund A. Cross-border transport of rescue dogs may spread rabies in Europe. Vet Rec 2015; 176:672. [PMID: 26113337 PMCID: PMC4501168 DOI: 10.1136/vr.102909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Harmonisation of regulations in the European Union and the European Economic Area, as of January 1, 2012, has led to an increase in the number of rescue dogs imported to Norway from Eastern European countries, in particular Romania. Today the only requirements for dogs entering Norway are rabies vaccination and prophylactic Echinococcus multilocularis treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate the antibody levels to rabies virus in vaccinated rescue dogs and to examine if the dogs had sufficient antibody response according to the recommended titre ≥0.5 IU/ml by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). A significant proportion (53%, 95% CI (41% to 65%)) of imported rescue dogs from Eastern Europe were found to have inadequate titres after rabies vaccination. Moreover, 41 per cent of the dogs had antibody levels below or equal to 0.2 IU/ml, and among these, 14 dogs had titres ≤0.1 IU/ml, which is considered negative in the fluorescent antibody virus neutralisation assay. This study indicates that the present regulation increases the risk of introducing rabies from member states where rabies is still prevalent to countries considered free from rabies.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Klevar
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Postboks 750 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
| | - H R Høgåsen
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Postboks 750 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
| | - R K Davidson
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Postboks 750 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
| | - I S Hamnes
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Postboks 750 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - A Lund
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Postboks 750 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
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17
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Ribadeau Dumas F, N'Diaye DS, Paireau J, Gautret P, Bourhy H, Le Pen C, Yazdanpanah Y. Cost-effectiveness of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis in the context of very low rabies risk: A decision-tree model based on the experience of France. Vaccine 2015; 33:2367-78. [PMID: 25797366 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.02.075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2014] [Revised: 02/14/2015] [Accepted: 02/28/2015] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Benefit-risk of different anti-rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) strategies after scratches or bites from dogs with unknown rabies status is unknown in very low rabies risk settings. DESIGN AND SETTING A cost-effectiveness analysis in metropolitan France using a decision-tree model and input data from 2001 to 2011. POPULATION A cohort of 2807 patients, based on the mean annual number of patients exposed to category CII (minor scratches) or CIII (transdermal bite) dog attacks in metropolitan France between 2001 and 2011. INTERVENTIONS Five PEP strategies: (A) no PEP for CII and CIII; (B) vaccine only for CIII; (C) vaccine for CII and CIII; (D) vaccine+ rabies immunoglobulin (RIG) only for CIII; and (E) vaccine for CII and vaccine+ RIG for CIII. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES The number of deaths related to rabies and to traffic accidents on the way to anti-rabies centers (ARC), effectiveness in terms of years of life gained by reducing rabies cases and avoiding traffic accidents, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) associated with each strategy. RESULTS Strategy E led to the fewest rabies cases (3.6 × 10(-8)) and the highest costs (€ 1,606,000) but also to 1.7 × 10(-3) lethal traffic accidents. Strategy A was associated with the most rabies cases (4.8 × 10(-6)), but the risk of traffic accidents and costs were null; therefore, strategy A was the most effective and the least costly. The sensitivity analysis showed that, when the probability that a given dog is rabid a given day (PA) was > 1.4 × 10(-6), strategy D was more effective than strategy A; strategy B became cost-effective (i.e. ICER vs strategy A < 3 × French Gross Domestic Product per capita) when PA was > 1 .4 × 10(-4). CONCLUSIONS In the metropolitan France's very low rabies prevalence context, PEP with rabies vaccine, administered alone or with RIG, is associated with significant and unnecessary costs and unfavourable benefit-risk ratios regardless to exposure category.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florence Ribadeau Dumas
- Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa/LEGOS, F-75016, Paris, France; Institut Pasteur, Unité Dynamique des lyssavirus et adaptation à l'hôte, National Reference Center for Rabies, F-75015 Paris, France; Institut Pasteur, CAR/CMIP/CINP, F-75015, Paris, France.
| | - Dieynaba S N'Diaye
- IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, F-75018 Paris, France; UPMC Univ Paris 06, ED393, F-75005, Paris, France; Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, F-75018 Paris, France
| | - Juliette Paireau
- Univ Pierre et Marie Curie, Cellule Pasteur UPMC, F-75015, Paris, France; Institut Pasteur, Unité d'Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, F-75015, Paris, France
| | - Philippe Gautret
- Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Marseille, CHU Nord, Pôle Infectieux, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, F-13015 Marseille, France; Aix Marseille Université, Unité de Recherche en Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales Emergentes (URMITE), UM63, CNRS 7278, IRD 198, Inserm 1095, Faculté de Médecine, F-13005 Marseille, France
| | - Hervé Bourhy
- Institut Pasteur, Unité Dynamique des lyssavirus et adaptation à l'hôte, National Reference Center for Rabies, F-75015 Paris, France
| | - Claude Le Pen
- Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa/LEGOS, F-75016, Paris, France
| | - Yazdan Yazdanpanah
- IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, F-75018 Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Service de Maladies Infectieuses, F-75018 Paris, France; Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, F-75018 Paris, France
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18
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Fooks AR, Johnson N. Jet set pets: examining the zoonosis risk in animal import and travel across the European Union. VETERINARY MEDICINE (AUCKLAND, N.Z.) 2014; 6:17-25. [PMID: 30101093 PMCID: PMC6067792 DOI: 10.2147/vmrr.s62059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Ownership of companion animals or pets is popular throughout the world. Unfortunately, such animals are susceptible to and potential reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens. Close proximity to and contact with pets can lead to human infections. The distribution of zoonotic diseases associated with companion animals such as dogs and cats is not uniform around the world, and moving animals between regions, countries, and continents carries with it the risk of relocating the pathogens they might harbor. Critical among these zoonotic diseases are rabies, echinococcosis, and leishmania. In addition, the protozoan parasites, Toxoplasma gondii and Giardia duodenalis, are also significant agents for human disease of pet origin. Considerable effort is applied to controlling movements of companion animals, particularly dogs, into the European Union. However, free movement of people and their pets within the European Union is a risk factor for the translocation of diseases and their vectors. This review considers the current distribution of some of these diseases, the risks associated with pet travel, and the controls implemented within Europe to prevent the free movement of zoonotic pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony R Fooks
- Wildlife Zoonoses and Vector-Borne Diseases Research Group, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Addlestone, Surrey,
- Department of Clinical Infection, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Nicholas Johnson
- Wildlife Zoonoses and Vector-Borne Diseases Research Group, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Addlestone, Surrey,
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19
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Müller T, Freuling CM, Wysocki P, Roumiantzeff M, Freney J, Mettenleiter TC, Vos A. Terrestrial rabies control in the European Union: historical achievements and challenges ahead. Vet J 2014; 203:10-7. [PMID: 25466578 DOI: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2014.10.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2014] [Revised: 10/15/2014] [Accepted: 10/20/2014] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Due to the implementation of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes, the European Union (EU) is becoming progressively free of red fox (Vulpes vulpes)-mediated rabies. Over the past three decades, the incidence of rabies had decreased substantially and vast areas of Western and Central Europe have been freed from rabies using this method of controlling an infectious disease in wildlife. Since rabies control is a top priority in the EU, the disease is expected to be eliminated from the animal source in the near future. While responsible authorities may consider the mission of eliminating fox rabies from the EU almost accomplished, there are still issues to be dealt with and challenges to be met that have not yet been in the focus of attention, but could jeopardise the ultimate goal. Among them are increasing illegal movements of animals, maintaining funding support for vaccination campaigns, devising alternative vaccine strategies in neighbouring Eastern European countries and the expanding distribution range of several potential rabies reservoir species in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Müller
- Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler Institut, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research, OIE Reference Laboratory for Rabies, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
| | - Conrad Martin Freuling
- Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler Institut, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research, OIE Reference Laboratory for Rabies, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
| | - Patrick Wysocki
- Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
| | | | - Jean Freney
- Laboratoire de Microbiologie, Centre de Biologie et Pathologie Est Groupe de Recherche, Hospices Civils de Lyon & «Bactéries pathogènes opportunistes et environnement», UMR 5557 CNRS-UCBL, ISPB, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, France
| | - Thomas Christoph Mettenleiter
- Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler Institut, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research, OIE Reference Laboratory for Rabies, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
| | - Adriaan Vos
- IDT Biologika GmbH, 06861 Dessau-Rosslau, Germany
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