Interactive effects of landscape and weather on dispersal

Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.

Landscape structure shapes the diversity of tree seedlings at multiple spatial scales in a fragmented tropical rainforest

The maintenance of seedling diversity of animal-dispersed tree species is fundamental for the structure and function of forest patches in fragmented tropical rainforests. Nonetheless, the effects of landscape structure at different spatial scales on α- and β-diversity of tree seedling communities are recently explored. Using a multi-scale approach, we assessed the relative effect of landscape composition and configuration on α- and β-diversity of animal-dispersed seedlings within 16 forest patches in the Lacandona rainforest, Mexico. We assessed these effects at 13 spatial scales (from 300 to 1500 m radius, at 100 m intervals) for three metrics of effective number of species considering α- and β-diversity. We found that α-diversity was largely affected by landscape composition and β-diversity by landscape configuration. On the one hand, the amount of secondary forest influenced α-diversity. Additionally, species richness increased in landscapes with highly aggregated forest patches. On the other hand, β-diversity was affected positively by forest fragmentation and negatively by the edge contrast of forest patches with the surrounding matrix. Our findings indicate that landscape configuration is a strong driver of seedling diversity in highly deforested rainforests. Promoting forest patches and secondary forests through payment for ecosystem services' programs, favoring matrix quality within land-sharing schemes of smallholder agriculture and secondary forest management, and identifying restoration opportunities for assisted or unassisted natural regeneration are urgently needed for conservation of seedling diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes.

Geographical disjunction and environmental conditions drive intraspecific differentiation in the chalk-hill blue butterfly

Drivers of evolution are often related to geographical isolation and/or diverging environmental conditions. Spatial variation in neutral genetic markers mostly reflects past geographical isolation, i.e. long-lasting allopatry, whereas morphology is often driven by local environmental conditions, resulting in more rapid evolution. In Europe, most thermophilic species persisted during the past glacial periods in geographically disjunct refugia, representing long-lasting isolates, frequently with diverging environmental conditions. This situation has driven the evolution of intraspecific signatures in species. Here, we analysed wing shape and wing pigmentation of the chalk-hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon, across its entire distribution range restricted to the western Palaearctic. In addition, we compiled abiotic environmental parameters for each sampling site. Wing colour patterns differentiated a western and an eastern lineage. These lineages might represent two main Pleistocene refugia and differentiation centres, one located on the Italian Peninsula and the other in the Balkan region. The two lineages showed evidence of hybridization across Central Europe, from the Alps and across Germany. The intraspecific differentiation was strongest in the width of the brown band on the outer margin of the wings. The morphological structures obtained are in line with genetic signatures found in previous studies, but the latter are more fine-grained. Current environmental conditions, such as mean temperatures, were only marginally correlated with colour patterns. Our study underlines that Pleistocene range shifts, often resulting in allopatric isolation, shape intraspecific phenotypic structures within species; that pigmentation responds in a more sensitive manner to spatial disjunction than wing shape; and that morphometric and genetic structures in P. coridon provide concordant patterns and thus support identical biogeographical conclusions.

Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

Nutritional stress reduces flight performance and exploratory behavior in a butterfly

Anthropogenic global change, including agricultural intensification and climate change, poses a substantial challenge to many herbivores due to a reduced availability of feeding resources. The concomitant food stress is expected to detrimentally affect performance, amongst others in dispersal-related traits. Thus, while dispersal is of utmost importance to escape from deteriorating habitat conditions, such conditions may negatively feedback on the ability to do so. Therefore, we here investigate the impact of larval and adult food stress on traits related to dispersal ability, including morphology, physiology, flight performance, and exploratory behavior, in a butterfly. We show that inadequate nutrition during development and in the adult stage diminishes flight performance, despite some re-allocation of somatic resources. Detrimental effects of food stress on flight performance were mainly caused by reductions in body mass and storage reserves. Similar results were found for exploratory behavior. Furthermore, exploratory behavior was found to be (moderately) repeatable at the individual level, which might indicate the existence of a personality trait. This notion is further supported by the fact that flight performance and exploratory behavior were positively correlated, potentially suggesting the existence of a dispersal syndrome. In summary, our findings may have important implications for dispersal in natural environments, as the conditions requiring dispersal the most impair flight ability and thereby likely dispersal rates.

The effect of landscape complexity and microclimate on the thermal tolerance of a pest insect

Landscape changes are known to exacerbate the impacts of climate change. As such, understanding the combined effect of climate and landscape on agroecosystems is vital if we are to maintain the function of agroecosystems. This study aimed to elucidate the effects of agricultural landscape complexity on the microclimate and thermal tolerance of an aphid pest to better understand how landscape and climate may interact to affect the thermal tolerance of pest species within the context of global climate change. Meteorological data were measured at the landscape level, and cereal aphids (Sitobion avenae, Metopolophium dirhodum and Rhopalosiphum padi) sampled, from contrasting landscapes (simple and complex) in winter 2013/2014 and spring 2014 in cereal fields of Brittany, France. Aphids were returned to the laboratory and the effect of landscape of origin on aphid cold tolerance (as determined by CT_min ) was investigated. Results revealed that local landscape complexity significantly affected microclimate, with simple homogenous landscapes being on average warmer, but with greater temperature variation. Landscape complexity was shown to impact aphid cold tolerance, with aphids from complex landscapes being more cold tolerant than those from simple landscapes in both winter and spring, but with differences among species. This study highlights that future changes to land use could have implications for the thermal tolerance and adaptability of insects. Furthermore, not all insect species respond in a similar way to microhabitat and microclimate, which could disrupt important predator-prey relationships and the ecosystem service they provide.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming.

Inadequate thermal refuge constrains landscape habitability for a grassland bird species

Ecologists have long recognized the influence that environmental conditions have on abundance and range extent of animal species. We used the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model species for studying how microclimates serve as refuge against severe weather conditions. This species serves as an indicator or umbrella species for other sensitive ground-nesting, grassland obligate species. We conducted a mensurative field experiment in the rolling plains of Texas, USA, a semi-arid ecosystem on the southwestern periphery of bobwhite range, to determine whether native bunch grasses, apparently suitable for bobwhite nesting, could reduce ambient temperature below levels harmful for eggs. During the nesting season, we compared temperature and relative humidity readings at daily heat maxima (i.e., the 3 h during each day with highest temperatures) during the nesting season over the course of two years at 63 suitable nest sites paired with 63 random locations (n = 126) using two sensors at ∼10 and ∼60 cm above ground level. Mean temperature at nest height was 2.3% cooler at nest sites (35.99 °C ± 0.07 SE) compared to random locations (36.81 °C ± 0.07 SE); at ambient height, nest sites were slightly cooler (32.78 °C ± 0.06 SE) than random location (32.99 °C ± 0.06 SE). Mean relative humidity at nest sites was greater at nest height (34.53% ± 0.112 SE) and ambient height (36.22% ± 0.10 SE) compared to random locations at nest (33.35% ± 0.12 SE) and ambient height (35.75% ± 0.10 SE). Based on these results, cover at sites that appear visually suitable for nesting by bobwhites and other ground nesting birds provided adequate thermal refuge in the rolling plains by maintaining cooler, moister microclimates than surrounding non-nesting locations. Post-hoc analyses of data revealed that habitat conditions surrounding suitable nest sites strongly influenced thermal suitability of the substrate. Given that eggs of bobwhites and probably other species would experience lethal temperatures without these thermal refuges in the context of proper habitat condition, nesting vegetation is a critical component of niche space for bobwhites and other ground nesting birds in semi-arid regions. Many contemporary land uses, however, degrade or destroy bunch grasses and grassland systems, and thus decrease landscape inhabitability. Conservationists working with obligate grassland species that require bunch grasses in semi-arid regions should develop land management strategies that maximize the availability of these thermal refuges across space and time.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Signals of climate, conspecific density, and watershed features in patterns of homing and dispersal by Pacific salmon

It is widely assumed that rates of dispersal in animal populations are plastic in response to intrinsic and extrinsic cues, yet the factors influencing this plasticity are rarely known. This knowledge gap is surprising given the important role of dispersal in facilitating range shifts that may allow populations to persist in a rapidly changing global climate. We used two decades of tagging and recapture data from 19 hatchery populations of Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Chinook salmon) in the Columbia River, USA, to quantify the effects of regional and local climate conditions, density dependence, watershed features such as area and position on the landscape, and direct anthropogenic influence on dispersal rates by adult salmon during the breeding season. We found that the probability of dispersal, termed "straying" in salmon, is plastic in'response to multiple factors and that populations showed varied responses that were largely idiosyncratic. A regional climate index (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), water temperatures in the mainstem Columbia River that was commonly experience by populations during migration, water temperatures in local subbasins unique to each population during the breeding season, migration distance, and density dependence had the strongest effects on dispersal. Patterns of dispersal plasticity in response to commonly experienced conditions were consistent with gene by environment interactions, though we are tentative about this interpretation given the domesticated history of these populations. Overall, our results warn against attempts to predict future range shifts of migratory species without considering population-specific dispersal plasticity, and also caution against the use of few populations to infer species-level patterns. Ultimately, our results provide evidence that analyses that examine the response of dispersal to single factors may be misleading.