Malthusian models and Chinese realities: the Chinese demographic system, 1700-2000

Cross-administrative and downscaling environmental spatial management and control system: A zoning experiment in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Promoting the downscaling and integration of zonal management and control of various environmental pollution sources is an effective way to systematically deal with the current high-intensity and complex environmental problems. Through single-factor and comprehensive pollutant emission intensity evaluation and cluster analysis, we built a full-coverage and cross-scale environmental spatial management and control system for pollution sources, then proposed environmental zoning patterns and pollution control strategies at three scales in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China. At the grid scale, the reclassified 7 types of pollution source spaces can be divided into 5 levels based on pollution emission intensity, and the most urgent environmental control subjects can be determined accordingly. Up to the county scale, combined with emission intensity and regional functions, 305 counties can be divided into 5 control intensity zones, which directly correspond to different environmental control intensity, requirements and policies. Finally, at the city scale, 41 cities can be clustered into 7 pollution control zones, which are classified and named as the three-level form of geographic location, development orientation and pollution source characteristics. Fully using the zoning units at different scales of cities, counties and grids can break the limitation of inherent administrative boundaries and allow environmental integration policies to be implemented across departments and regions, also let differentiated policies be more accurately implemented to different administrative levels and pollution source, and then truly improve the efficiency of environmental management.

No Spouse, No Son, No Daughter, No Kin in Contemporary China: Prevalence, Correlates, and Differences in Economic Support

OBJECTIVES

China's recent demographic and social changes might undermine the sustainability of its family-oriented system for elder care. We investigate kin availability among adults aged 45+ in contemporary China, with an emphasis on child gender.

METHOD

Using nationally representative survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011), we examine the prevalence and correlates of lacking different kin types and combinations, and we test associations between kin availability and received economic support.

RESULTS

Kinlessness is low in China (less than 2% lack a spouse/partner and children), but kin availability is patterned by gender, age group, and sociodemographic characteristics. More than twice as many older adults have no spouse/partner and no daughter (3.2%) as those who have no spouse/partner and no son (1.4%). Adults without close kin are disadvantaged across health, wealth, and economic support. In contrast to traditional expectations, we find that those with only daughters are more similar to those with mixed sex children, whereas those with only sons are more similar to those without children in receipt of economic support.

DISCUSSION

Access to kin forms the basis of an emergent system of stratification in China, which will be amplified as cohorts with only one child age into older adulthood.

Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model

：A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China's future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

Socioeconomic determinants of rural women's desired fertility: A survey in rural Shaanxi, China

There has been evidence demonstrating that China has had a persistently low and below-replacement level fertility since early 1990s, causing concerns of a rapidly aging population and sustainability of the Chinese economy. To avoid adverse effects of excessively low fertility, the Chinese government has recently changed its family planning policy from "one-child policy" to "two-child policy." Nonetheless, the effectiveness of the newly initiated two-child policy is questionable if women's average desired number of children or desired fertility for their lifetime is below the threshold fertility allowed by the two-child policy. Therefore, this study argues that it would be interesting and pertinent to know women's fertility desires under the circumstances of no policy restrictions and understand major factors that may affect their desired fertility. Based on a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling survey with 2,516 women respondents in rural Shaanxi, this study tries to estimate desired fertility of rural women and evaluate the impact of important socioeconomic factors on their desired fertility. The results of this study reveal that the average lifetime desired fertility for rural women of childbearing age in Shaanxi is about 1.71, below the total fertility rate at the replacement level. The findings of this study suggest that women's marriage age, the pecuniary costs of having children, women's income forgone for having children, and social security benefits available for rural residents at retirement age, are significantly and negatively related to desired fertility. However, rural women's cultural views towards fertility are significantly but positively related to their desired fertility. This study further confirms that China has entered an era of low fertility, and thus, any policy restrictions on fertility may no longer be necessary. Instead, government programs which support childbearing and childrearing are needed to prevent excessive low fertility and rapid aging of the population.

Physical well-being and school enrollment:

Adoption has increased in China since 1980 when the government started the one-child policy. There were approximately six million adopted children living in China in 1988. The objective of this study was to compare adopted and biological children in one-child families across a number of measures of physical well-being and school enrollment. The 1992 National Sample Survey on the Situation of Children provided data on 2458 adopted and 194,760 biological children aged 0-14 years living in one-child families. Logistic regression models were used to adjust for confounders. We found that adopted children were not significantly different from biological children in reported diarrhea and nutritional outcomes (stunting, underweight, wasting) after controlling for other known demographic, socioeconomic and geographic correlates. However, there was evidence of significantly higher odds of never being immunized and not being currently enrolled in school, and evidence of slightly lower odds of having fever or acute respiratory infections among adopted children compared to biological children. These results suggest that adopted children were as healthy and well-fed as biological children, but adopted children aged 7-14 years were less likely to be enrolled in school than biological children.

Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?

Has China's strict one-child policy been successful in changing fertility preferences? Using linked data from surveys conducted in four counties of northern China in 1991 and 1994, we compare reproductive behavior against prior fertility preferences and show when and where women change from wanting to not wanting more children. The acceptance of policy-sanctioned family size follows a development gradient and reflects the degree of enforcement. High acceptance occurs in the most urban, industrialized county and in the county with the most rigid family planning policy. Acceptance is weaker among women living in the poorest county and in the county where enforcement is most lenient.