Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Ecotones as Windows into Organismal-to-Biome Scale Responses across Neotropical Forests

Tropical forests are incredibly diverse in structure and function. Despite, or perhaps because of, this diversity, tropical biologists often conduct research exclusively in one or perhaps a few forest types. Rarely do we study the ecotone-the interstitial region between forest types. Ecotones are hyper-diverse, dynamic systems that control the flow of energy and organisms between adjacent ecosystems, with their locations determined by species' physiological limits. In this review, we describe how studying ecotones can provide key indicators for monitoring the state of Neotropical forests from organisms to ecosystems. We first describe how ecotones have been studied in the past and summarize our current understanding of tropical ecotones. Next, we provide three example lines of research focusing on the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of the ecotone between tropical dry forests and desert; between tropical dry and rainforests; and between Cerrado and Atlantic rainforests, with the latter being a particularly well-studied ecotone. Lastly, we outline methods and tools for studying ecotones that combine remote sensing, new statistical techniques, and field-based forest dynamics plot data, among others, for understanding these important systems.

Habitat potential modelling and the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of three Thymus species in Iran using MaxEnt

Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 5), edaphic (n = 1), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the most significant variable affecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor influencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their significant habitat loss in the future.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

Changes of Cinchona distribution over the past two centuries in the northern Andes

The Cinchona genus is important for humanity due to its ethnobotanical properties, and in particular its ability to prevent and treat malaria. However, there have been historical changes of Cinchona distribution in the tropical Andes that remain undocumented. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, several explorers recorded Cinchona precise localities in present-day Colombia and Ecuador, countries which harbour about half of the species of the genus, including C. officinalis. We compare historical and twentieth-century records to evaluate whether elevational ranges, mean elevation and latitude varied between the two periods. A large expansion of 662.5 m in average elevation for Cinchona and 792.5 m in elevational range for C. officinalis was found. These findings have implications for the conservation of economically important species and help us understand the impacts of the Anthropocene over time.

Hydroclimate and vegetation variability of high Andean ecosystems

Mountain ecosystems are sensitive to climate fluctuations; however, the scarcity of instrumental data makes necessary the use of complementary information to study the effect of climate change on these systems. Remote sensing permits studying the dynamics of vegetation productivity and wetlands in response to climate variability at different scales. In this study we identified the main climate variables that control vegetation dynamics and water balance in Cumbres Calchaquíes, NW Argentina. For this, we built annual time series from 1986 to 2019 of Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI, to quantify spare vegetation productivity), lake area, and snow-ice cover of peatlands, as indicators of mountain productivity and hydrology. We used a decompose function to explore trend, seasonality and random signal of the three-time series, and explored for significant changes in the mean value of consecutive periods. We used correlational analysis to explore their associations with climate records at local, regional, and global scales. The results showed that, SAVI and hydrological indicators presented different fluctuation patterns more pronounced since 2012, when they showed divergent trends with increasing SAVI and decreasing lake area and snow-ice cover. The three indicators responded differently to climate; SAVI increased in warmer years and lake area reflected the water balance of previous years. Snow-ice cover of peatlands was highly correlated with lake area. La Niña had a positive effect on lake area and snow-ice cover and a negative on SAVI, while El Niño had a negative effect on SAVI. Fluctuations of lake areas were synchronized with lake area in the nearby Argentinian puna, suggesting that climate signals have regional extent. The information provided by the three hydroclimate indicators is complementary and reflects different climate components and processes; biological processes (SAVI), physical processes (snow ice cover) and their combination (lake area). This study provides a systematic accessible replicable tool for mountain eco-hydrology long-term monitoring.

Phylogeography of Toona ciliata (Meliaceae) Complex in China Inferred from Cytonuclear Markers

Toona ciliata is an important timber species but is recognized as an endangered species at level II in China. Its genetic conservation is of increasing concern. Provenance trials and other breeding programs were conducted to develop seed transfer rules and multiplications. Here, we investigated twenty-nine populations sampled across the natural distribution of the T. ciliata complex using mtDNA and nrDNA ITS (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) markers. Haplotype diversity was h = 0.190 ± 0.202 and nucleotide diversity was π = 0.000383 ± 0.000536 for mtDNA marker. Nucleotide diversity for ITS sequences was 0.00837 ± 0.000783. Haplotypes exhibited phylogeographic structure in spatial distribution. The extent of genetic differentiation was significant (Fst = 0.6994 ± 0.0079 for ITS and 0.8870 ± 0.0077 for mtDNA marker). Isolation by distance (IBD) and by elevation (IBE) occurred among populations. Phylogenetic relationships from mtDNA marker indicated three genetically distinct regions, each without IBD effects. Compared with pollen flow, seed flow was strongly impeded in the western region, but extensive in the central region, and less impeded in the eastern region. Most populations did not exhibit expansion, with only a few populations showing expansion after bottleneck effects. We discussed a strategy of region-based genetic conservation and proposed to conserve multiple populations in the western and eastern regions and a few populations in the central region.

Geographic distribution, conservation status and lectotypification of Pedersenia weberbaueri (Suess.) Holub (Amaranthaceae), an endemic and highly threatened shrub from the Marañón valley of Peru

The present study analyses the geographical distribution, conservation status, and nomenclature of Peruvian endemic Pedersenia weberbaueri. The species distribution was modelled using MaxEnt based on occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The conservation status of the species was assessed against the categories and criteria of the IUCN Red List, and nomenclatural and typification issues were resolved. The potential distribution map of P. weberbaueri shows that the species is restricted to the seasonally dry tropical forests of the Marañón valley within a narrow latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational range. Consequently, we propose to categorise the species as Endangered (EN) and provide the necessary information for its inclusion in the IUCN Red List. Finally, we resolve nomenclatural issues and designate a lectotype. The results contribute to the biological knowledge of P. weberbaueri and support subsequent conservation management plans.

A highly contiguous, scaffold-level nuclear genome assembly for the fever tree (Cinchona pubescens Vahl) as a novel resource for Rubiaceae research

The Andean fever tree (Cinchona L.; Rubiaceae) is a source of bioactive quinine alkaloids used to treat malaria. C. pubescens Vahl is a valuable cash crop within its native range in northwestern South America, however, genomic resources are lacking. Here we provide the first highly contiguous and annotated nuclear and plastid genome assemblies using Oxford Nanopore PromethION-derived long-read and Illumina short-read data. Our nuclear genome assembly comprises 603 scaffolds with a total length of 904 Mbp (∼82% of the full genome based on a genome size of 1.1 Gbp/1C). Using a combination of de novo and reference-based transcriptome assemblies we annotated 72,305 coding sequences comprising 83% of the BUSCO gene set and 4.6% fragmented sequences. Using additional plastid and nuclear datasets we place C. pubescens in the Gentianales order. This first genomic resource for C. pubescens opens new research avenues, including the analysis of alkaloid biosynthesis in the fever tree.