Costs and outcomes of Lynch syndrome screening in the Australian colorectal cancer population

A registry-based study on universal screening for defective mismatch repair in colorectal cancer in Denmark highlights disparities in screening uptake and counselling referrals

Universal screening for defective mismatch repair (dMMR) in colorectal cancer utilizes immunohistochemical staining for MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PSM2. Additionally, BRAF V600E mutations status and MLH1 hypermethylation should be performed to distinguish germline and somatic dMMR alterations. A decade of Danish population-based registries has been analysed regarding screening uptake, detection rate and referral to genetic counselling. MMR testing was performed in 71·8% (N = 34,664) of newly diagnosed colorectal cancers with an increasing trend to 88·8% coverage in the study's final year. The likelihood of undergoing MMR testing was reduced in males with 2% (95% CI 0·4-2·7, p = 0·008), with 4·1% in patients above age 70 years (95% CI 1·5-6·6, p = 0·003) compared in patients below age 51 years, with 16·3% in rectal cancers (95% CI 15·1-17·6, p < 0·001) and 1·4% left-sided colon cancers (95% CI 0·1-1·7, p = 0·03) compared to right-sided colon cancers. Tumour stage II and III increased the likelihood of being tested, with 3·7% for stage II (95% CI 2·2-5·6, p < 0·001) and 3·3% for stage III tumours (95% CI 1·8-4·8, p < 0·001) compared to stage I tumours, whereas the likelihood for stage IV tumours is reduced by 35·7% (95% CI 34·2-37·2, p < 0·001). Test rates significantly differed between the Danish health care regions. dMMR was identified in 15·1% (95% CI 14·8-15·6, p < 0·001) cases with somatic MMR inactivation in 6·7% of the cases. 8·3% tumours showed hereditary dMMR expression patterns, and 20·0% of those were referred to genetic counselling. Despite the high uptake rates, we found disparities between patient groups and missed opportunities for genetic diagnostics.

Development and Interpretation of a Clinicopathological-Based Model for the Identification of Microsatellite Instability in Colorectal Cancer

Chemotherapy is not recommended for patients with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) in colorectal cancer (CRC); therefore, assessing the status of MMR is crucial for the selection of subsequent treatment. This study is aimed at building predictive models to accurately and rapidly identify dMMR. A retrospective analysis was performed at Wuhan Union Hospital between May 2017 and December 2019 based on the clinicopathological data of patients with CRC. The variables were subjected to collinearity, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and random forest (RF) feature screening analyses. Four sets of machine learning models (extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), and RF) and a conventional logistic regression (LR) model were built for model training and testing. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of the developed models. In total, 2279 patients were included in the study and were randomly divided into either the training or test group. Twelve clinicopathological features were incorporated into the development of the predictive models. The area under curve (AUC) values of the five predictive models were 0.8055 for XGBoost, 0.8174 for SVM, 0.7424 for NB, 8584 for RF, and 0.7835 for LR (Delong test, P value < 0.05). The results showed that the RF model exhibited the best recognition ability and outperformed the conventional LR method in identifying dMMR and proficient MMR (pMMR). Our predictive models based on routine clinicopathological data can significantly improve the diagnostic performance of dMMR and pMMR. The four machine learning models outperformed the conventional LR model.

Evaluating the quality of the economic evidence in colorectal cancer genomics studies

The increase in the use of genome-based screening and diagnostic tests adds to the overall costs of oncologic care for colorectal cancer. This, in turn, has resulted in an increase in published economic analyses. Aim: To perform a systematic literature review of the available economic evidence evaluating the value of genomic testing for colorectal cancer and appraise the quality of the economic studies conducted to date. Methods: A systematic review of the literature for economic studies of colorectal cancer genomics from January 2006 through October 2020, and evaluation of study quality using the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) instrument was conducted. The validated QHES was then applied to a final set of articles that met eligibility criteria. Results: Our search of the literature initially yielded 12,859 records. A final set of 49 articles met our inclusion criteria. The QHES score ranged from 24 to 100, with an average score of 82. Most of the studies (n = 40, 82%) scored above 75 and were considered of good quality. Conclusion: Our analysis revealed that most of the economic analyses of colorectal cancer genomic molecular diagnostics in the literature may be of good quality. There is, however, some variation in methodological rigor between the articles.

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy in first-degree female relatives with Lynch syndrome of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the United States: a microsimulation study

Background

To evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy (PH) in women with Lynch syndrome (LS).

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model incorporating the natural history for the development of hyperplasia with and without atypia into endometrial cancer (EC) based on the MISCAN‐framework. We simulated women identified as first‐degree relatives (FDR) with LS of colorectal cancer patients after universal testing for LS. We estimated costs and benefits of offering this cohort PH, accounting for reduced quality of life after PH and for having EC. Three minimum ages (30/35/40) and three maximum ages (70/75/80) were compared to no PH.

Results

In the absence of PH, the estimated number of EC cases was 300 per 1,000 women with LS. Total associated costs for treatment of EC were $5.9 million. Offering PH to FDRs aged 40–80 years was considered optimal. This strategy reduced the number of endometrial cancer cases to 5.4 (−98%), resulting in 516 quality‐adjusted life years (QALY) gained and increasing the costs (treatment of endometrial cancer and PH) to $15.0 million (+154%) per 1,000 women. PH from earlier ages was more costly and resulted in fewer QALYs, although this finding was sensitive to disutility for PH.

Conclusions

Offering PH to 40‐ to 80‐year‐old women with LS is expected to add 0.5 QALY per person at acceptable costs. Women may decide to have PH at a younger age, depending on their individual disutility for PH and premature menopause.

Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Genetic Testing

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Approximately 3–5% of CRCs are associated with hereditary cancer syndromes. Individuals who harbor germline mutations are at an increased risk of developing early onset CRC, as well as extracolonic tumors. Genetic testing can identify genes that cause these syndromes. Early detection could facilitate the initiation of targeted prevention strategies and surveillance for CRC patients and their families. The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of CRC genetic testing. We utilized a cross-sectional design to determine the cost-effectiveness of CRC genetic testing as compared to the usual screening method (iFOBT) from the provider’s perspective. Data on costs and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of 200 CRC patients from three specialist general hospitals were collected. A mixed-methods approach of activity-based costing, top-down costing, and extracted information from a clinical pathway was used to estimate provider costs. Patients and family members’ HRQoL were measured using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. Data from the Malaysian Study on Cancer Survival (MySCan) were used to calculate patient survival. Cost-effectiveness was measured as cost per life-year (LY) and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The provider cost for CRC genetic testing was high as compared to that for the current screening method. The current practice for screening is cost-saving as compared to genetic testing. Using a 10-year survival analysis, the estimated number of LYs gained for CRC patients through genetic testing was 0.92 years, and the number of QALYs gained was 1.53 years. The cost per LY gained and cost per QALY gained were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) showed that genetic testing dominates iFOBT testing. CRC genetic testing is cost-effective and could be considered as routine CRC screening for clinical practice.

Development and validation of MMR prediction model based on simplified clinicopathological features and serum tumour markers

BACKGROUND

Although simplified clinicopathological features and serum tumour markers (STMs) were reported to be associated with the status of mismatch repair (MMR) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, their predictive value alone or in combination for MMR status remains unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 3274 participants with MMR testing and STMs measurements from two institutions was conducted. The prediction model was developed in the primary cohort that consisted of 1964 participants. Best subset regression was applied to select the most useful predictors from the primary dataset. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. External validation was performed in an independent validation cohort of 1310 consecutive CRC patients.

FINDINGS

Among the ten simplified clinicopathological features, seven variables were selected as the best subset of risk factors to develop pathology-based model, including age, tumour diameters, histology, tumour location, perineural invasion, the number of sampled lymph nodes (LNs) and positive LNs. The model showed good calibration and discrimination, with an AUC of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.722 to 0.789) in the primary cohort and 0.754 (95% CI, 0.715 to 0.793) in the validation cohort. After the addition of CEA and CA 72-4, the performance of pathology-based model was significantly improved in in both the primary cohort (AUC: 0.805 (0.774-0.835) vs. 0.756 (0.722-0.789), P < 0.001) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.796 (0.758-0.835) vs. 0.754 (0.715-0.793), P < 0.001). The results of decision curve analysis revealed that using our models to predict the status of MMR would add more benefit than either the detect-all-patients scheme or the detect-none scheme.

INTERPRETATION

The models based on simplified clinicopathological features alone or in combination with STMs can be conveniently used to facilitate the postoperative individualized prediction of MMR status in CRC patients.

Age-dependent performance of BRAF mutation testing in Lynch syndrome diagnostics

BRAF V600E mutations have been reported as a marker of sporadic microsatellite instability (MSI) colorectal cancer (CRC). Current international diagnostic guidelines recommend BRAF mutation testing in MSI CRC patients to predict low risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). We evaluated the age-specific performance of BRAF testing in LS diagnostics. We systematically compared the prevalence of BRAF mutations in LS-associated CRCs and unselected MSI CRCs in different age groups as available from published studies, databases and population-based patient cohorts. Sensitivity/specificity analysis of BRAF testing for exclusion of LS and cost calculations were performed. Among 969 MSI CRCs from LS carriers in the literature and German HNPCC Consortium, 15 (1.6%) harbored BRAF mutations. Six of seven LS patients with BRAF-mutant CRC and reported age were <50 years. Among 339 of 756 (44.8%) of BRAF mutations detected in unselected MSI CRC, only 2 of 339 (0.6%) BRAF mutations were detected in patients <50 years. The inclusion of BRAF testing led to high risk of missing LS patients and increased costs at age <50 years. BRAF testing in patients <50 years carries a high risk of missing a hereditary cancer predisposition and is cost-inefficient. We suggest direct referral of MSI CRC patients <50 years to genetic counseling without BRAF testing.

The predicted impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing of people with incident colorectal cancer for Lynch syndrome

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in people with incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in Australia.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

We investigated the impact of LS testing strategies in a micro-simulation model (Policy1-Lynch), explicitly modelling the cost of testing all patients diagnosed with incident CRC during 2017, with detailed modelling of outcomes for patients identified as LS carriers (probands) and their at-risk relatives throughout their lifetimes. For people with confirmed LS, we modelled ongoing colonoscopic surveillance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost-effectiveness of six universal tumour testing strategies (testing for DNA mismatch repair deficiencies) and of universal germline gene panel testing of patients with incident CRC; impact on cost-effectiveness of restricting testing by age at CRC diagnosis (all ages, under 50/60/70 years) and of colonoscopic surveillance interval (one, two years).

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness ratio of universal tumour testing strategies (annual colonoscopic surveillance, no testing age limit) compared with no testing ranged from $28 915 to $31 904/life-year saved (LYS) (indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: $30 000-$50 000/LYS). These strategies could avert 184-189 CRC deaths with an additional 30 597-31 084 colonoscopies over the lifetimes of 1000 patients with incident CRC with LS and 1420 confirmed LS carrier relatives (164-166 additional colonoscopies/death averted). The most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $28 915/LYS). Universal germline gene panel testing was not cost-effective compared with universal tumour testing strategies (ICER, $2.4 million/LYS). Immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing was cost-effective at all age limits when paired with 2-yearly colonoscopic surveillance (ICER, $11 525-$32 153/LYS), and required 4778-15 860 additional colonoscopies to avert 46-181 CRC deaths (88-103 additional colonoscopies/death averted).

CONCLUSIONS

Universal tumour testing strategies for guiding germline genetic testing of people with incident CRC for LS in Australia are likely to be cost-effective compared with no testing. Universal germline gene panel testing would not currently be cost-effective.

Lynch Syndrome: From Screening to Diagnosis to Treatment in the Era of Modern Molecular Oncology

Lynch syndrome is a hereditary cancer predisposition syndrome caused by germline alterations in the mismatch repair genes and is the most common etiology of hereditary colorectal cancer. While Lynch syndrome was initially defined by the clinical Amsterdam criteria, these criteria lack the sensitivity needed for clinical utility. This review covers the evolution of screening for Lynch syndrome from the use of tumor microsatellite instability and/or somatic alterations in mismatch repair protein expression by immunohistochemistry to the newest methods using next-generation sequencing. Additionally, it discusses the clinical implications of the diagnosis of Lynch syndrome as it affects cancer therapeutics and the role of screening in noncolorectal Lynch-associated cancers. As molecular oncology continues to evolve, it is crucial to remain current on the increasing complexity of Lynch syndrome diagnostics and treatment options.