Geriatric Screening, Triage Urgency, and 30-Day Mortality in Older Emergency Department Patients

The association of inflammatory markers with frailty and in-hospital mortality in older COVID-19 patients

INTRODUCTION

During the COVID19 pandemic, older patients hospitalized for COVID-19 exhibited an increased mortality risk compared to younger patients. While ageing is associated with compromised immune responses and frailty, their contributions and interplay remain understudied. This study investigated the association between inflammatory markers and mortality and potential modification by frailty among older patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

METHODS

Data were from three multicenter Dutch cohorts (COVID-OLD, CliniCo, Covid-Predict). Patients were 70 years or older, hospitalized for COVID-19and categorized into three frailty groups: fit (Clinical frailty score (CFS) 1-3), pre-frail (CFS 4-5), and frail (CFS 6-9). Immunological markers (lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic inflammation index (SII)) were measured at baseline. Associations with in hospital mortality were examined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 1697 patients were included from COVID-OLD, 656 from Covid-Predict, and 574 from CliniCo. The median age was 79, 77, and 78 years for each cohort. Hospital mortality rates were 33 %, 27 % and 39 % in the three cohorts, respectively. A lower CRP was associated with a higher frailty score in all three cohorts (all p < 0.01). Lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, NLR, PLR, or SII, were similar across frailty groups. Higher CRP levels were associated with increased in-hospital mortality risk across all frailty groups, across all cohorts (OR (95 % CI), 2.88 (2.20-3.78), 3.15 (1.95-5.16), and 3.28 (1.87-5.92)), and frailty did not modify the association between inflammatory markers and in-hospital mortality (all p-interaction>0.05).

CONCLUSION

While frailty is a significant factor in determining overall outcomes in older patients, our study suggests that the elevated risk of mortality in older patients with frailty compared to fit patients is likely not explained by difference in inflammatory responses.

The reliability and validity of triage tools in geriatric emergency departments: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

The nurse's ability to accurately identify urgent conditions and triage this vulnerable population tends to be complex and challenging. Little is known about the reliability and validity of common triage tools in geriatric patients.

AIM

To determine the reliability and validity of triage tools in geriatric emergency care and summarize the specific content of current triage tools for geriatric patients.

METHODS

The eligible literature was searched from the MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database using targeted search strategies. We defined the objectives and questions, set standards for article inclusion criteria, and conducted literature searching and screening. The mixed methods assessment tool (MMAT) appraised the article's quality. Finally, we extracted and analyzed the data from the included articles, summarizing the results. Endnote X9 was used for data extraction and collation.

RESULTS

Nine articles were eligible. These included six triage tools: CTAS, JTAS, KTAS, MTS, SETS, and ESI. The reliability of the CTAS was good when applied to triage geriatric patients. The SETS performed well in prehospital simulated triage. The ESI has moderate to excellent reliability. The CTAS has good to excellent validity, while the JTAS, KTAS, MTS, and ESI have fair to good results.

CONCLUSION

Several triage tools are useful in geriatrics, but the reliability and validity of these tools have mixed results. Applying triage tools to triage geriatric patients still has limitations.

The effectiveness of a modified Manchester Triage System for geriatric patients: A retrospective quantitative study

AIM

Geriatric patients are increasingly dominating the daily routine in emergency department (ED). The atypical clinical presentation of disease, multimorbidity, frailty and cognitive impairment of geriatric patients pose particular challenges for triage in the ED. Efficient and accurate emergency triage plays a key role in differentiating between geriatric patients who need timely treatment and those who can wait safely. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the modified Manchester Triage System (mMTS) in classifying geriatric patients.

DESIGN

An observational retrospective study.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 18,796 geriatric patients (≥65 years) attending the ED of a tertiary care hospital in Zhejiang province between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2022. Baseline information on patients was collected and divided into two different study groups according to triage level: high priority (red/orange) and low priority (yellow/green). The sensitivity and specificity of the mMTS were estimated by verifying the triage classification received by the emergency geriatric patients and their survival at 7 days or the need for acute surgery within 72 h.

RESULTS

The study included a total of 17,764 geriatric patients with a median age of 72 years in ED. 10.7% (1896/17,764) of the geriatric patients were assigned to the high priority code group (red/orange) and 89.3% (15,868/17,764) were in the low priority code group (yellow/green). The sensitivity of the mMTS associated with death within 7 days was 85.7% (77.5-91.4), specificity was 89.8% (89.3-90.2), and accuracy was 89.8% (89.3-90.2). 1.8% of patients required surgery within 72 h. The sensitivity was 62.6% (57.0-67.9), specificity was 90.3% (89.8-90.7), and negative predictive value was 99.2% (99.0-99.4).

CONCLUSIONS

The mMTS has good specificity, accuracy and negative predictive value for geriatric patients. However, its incorrect prediction of triage in high-priority code patients results in lower sensitivity, which may serve as a protective strategy for these individuals. The current emergency triage system does not completely screen geriatric patients with severe acute illness who present to the ED, and it is necessary to add comprehensive assessment tools that match the characteristics of geriatric patients to improve triage outcomes.

Differences in characteristics and outcomes of older patients hospitalized for COVID-19 after introduction of vaccination

PURPOSE

The aim of the present study was to investigate characteristics and outcomes in vaccinated and unvaccinated older patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

A retrospective multicentre cohort study among patients aged ≥70 years hospitalized for COVID-19 infection.

RESULTS

263 vaccinated and 82 unvaccinated patients were included. Vaccinated patients were older (median age 79 vs. 76 years; p < 0.001), more patients were male (66.2% vs. 53.7%; p = 0.040), had more comorbidities [median Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) 2 vs. 1; p 0.016] and were frailer [Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) ≥ 4 68% vs. 49%; p 0.015]. Vaccinated patients were admitted earlier after symptom onset (median 5 days vs. 7 days) but were equally ill at time of hospital admission. After correction for frailty, comorbidity and disease severity, risk of in-hospital mortality was three times lower for vaccinated patients (HR 0.30 95% CI 0.16-0.56; p < 0.001) compared to unvaccinated patients.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinated patients had lower risk of in-hospital mortality than unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 infection. These findings suggest that vaccinated patients benefit from the protective effect of the vaccine against death during hospital stay, outweighing the increased mortality risk that is associated with older age, greater frailty and more numerous comorbidities. This could be an encouragement for older people to receive age-appropriate vaccines, although no definite conclusions can be drawn for this was no intervention study.

Comparison of Manchester, qSOFA, emergency severity index, and national early warning scores for prognostic estimation and effective triage system in geriatric patients

BACKGROUND

Triage refers to classifying and prioritizing patients based on the severity of their injuries or illnesses in the health care setting. The increasing number of elderly patients seeking care in emergency departments (EDs) highlights the need for special attention to the unique needs of this patient population.

AIM

We aimed to compare the qSOFA, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and Manchester Triage System (MTS) scores to assist ED physicians in assessing the severity of elderly patients' clinical conditions and triaging them appropriately.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 1066 patients aged 65 and over who presented to our ED as outpatients or by ambulance between September 1, 2022, and August 30, 2023. Scoring systems at the time of admission to the ED were recorded separately for outpatients and arriving by ambulance.

RESULTS

According to the qSOFA, patients with a score of 0 were 0.976 times less likely to arrive by ambulance compared to those scoring 1 and above (OR = 0.976, p = .934). According to the NEWS, patients in the moderate-risk category were 0.447 times less likely to arrive by ambulance (OR = 0.447, p = .054). According to the ESI score, patients requiring high resource use with normal vital signs were 146.758 times more likely to arrive by ambulance (OR = 146.758, p = .001).

CONCLUSION

Significant differences in patients' methods of presentation to the ED were observed based on the MTS, qSOFA, NEWS, and ESI scores.

Trauma team activation for older patients with pelvic fractures: Are current criteria adequate?

OBJECTIVES

The present study aimed to identify the impact of age on current trauma team activation (TTA) processes and outcomes for patients with pelvic fractures.

METHODS

Adult patients with moderate and/or severe pelvic fractures (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 2) between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2021 were included utilising major trauma hospital data in Queensland. Characteristics of older (age ≥ 65) and younger patients including TTA, interventions and outcomes were examined. Multivariate analysis was used to determine factors associated with TTA in older patients.

RESULTS

Data from 637 patients was included. Despite comparable injury severity, a TTA was activated in fewer older people (older: 65% vs. younger: 79%, P < 0.001). Older patients had more falls leading to the trauma presentation (54.4% vs. 22.6%, P < 0.001), with higher initial systolic BP (131 vs. 125 mmHg, P = 0.04). Outcomes were worse for older people, with greater rates of in-hospital complications (27.2% vs. 16.4%, P = 0.004), and longer hospital stays (12 vs. 8 days, P = 0.04). Fewer older patients could be discharged independently to home (46.3% vs. 74.5%, P < 0.001). In older patients, falls and haemodynamic parameters were strongly associated with the reduced likelihood of TTA (fall mechanism [odds ratio (OR)] 0.33; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.74; P = 0.01; systolic BP [OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; P = 0.03], heart rate [OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.95-0.99; P = 0.02]).

CONCLUSION

Current TTA criteria based on higher energy mechanisms and traditional vital sign thresholds are inadequate for identifying injury in older patients. Sensitive triage criteria and increased clinician awareness are required to enhance injury recognition and improve outcomes in older trauma patients.

Assessing the utility of frailty scores in triage: a comparative study of validated scales

Currently, there is conflicting evidence regarding the efficacy of frailty scales and their ability to enhance or support triage operations. This study aimed to assess the utility of three common frailty scales (CFS, PRISMA-7, ISAR) and determine their utility in the triage setting. This prospective observational monocentric study was conducted at Merano Hospital's Emergency Department (ED) from June 1st to December 31st, 2023. All patients attending this ED during the 80-day study period were included, and frailty scores were correlated with three outcomes: hospitalization, 30-day mortality, and severity of condition as assessed by ED physicians. Patients were categorized by age, and analyses were performed for the entire study population, patients aged 18-64, and those aged 65 or older. Univariate analysis was followed by multivariable analysis to evaluate whether frailty scores were independently associated with the outcomes. In multivariable analysis, none of the frailty scores were found to be associated with the study outcomes, except for the CFS, which was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality, with an odds ratio of 1.752 (95% CI 1.148-2.674; p = 0.009) in the general population and 1.708 (95% CI 1.044-2.793; p = 0.033) in the population aged ≥ 65. Presently, available frailty scores do not appear to be useful in the triage context. Future research should consider developing new systems for accurate frailty assessment to support risk prediction in the triage assessment.

Association between socioeconomic status and hospitalisation requirement in older patients attended at the emergency department: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

A low socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with poor health results. The present study aimed to investigate if SES of older patients attending the emergency department is associated with the use of healthcare resources and outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Observational, retrospective study including consecutive patients 65 years or older admitted to the emergency department. Variables at baseline, index episode, and follow-up were recorded. SES was measured using an indirect theoretical index and patients were categorised into two groups according to whether they lived in a neighbourhood with a low or high SES. Primary outcomes included hospitalisation after the emergency department visit and prolonged hospitalisation (>7 days) at index episode. Secondary outcomes included emergency department re-consultant and hospital admission in the following 3 months after the index episode, and all-cause mortality after long-term follow-up. Logistic regression and cumulative hazards regression models were used to investigate associations between SES and outcomes.

RESULTS

The cohort included 553 patients (80 years [73-85], 50.5% female, 55.9% with low SES). After the emergency department visit, 234 patients (42.3%) required hospital admission. A low SES was inversely associated with hospitalisation with an adjusted odds ratio=0.654 (95% CI 0.441-0.970). Among hospitalised patients, a low SES was associated with prolonged hospitalisation (adjusted odds ratio=2.739; 95% CI 1.470-5.104). Follow-up outcomes, including all-cause mortality, were not associated with SES.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients living in more deprived urban areas were hospitalised less often after emergency department care, but hospital stays were longer. Understanding the effect of social determinants in healthcare use is mandatory to tailor resources to patient needs.

Older Adult Patients in the Emergency Department: Which Patients should be Selected for a Different Approach?

BACKGROUND

While multidimensional and interdisciplinary assessment of older adult patients improves their short-term outcomes after evaluation in the emergency department (ED), this assessment is time-consuming and ill-suited for the busy environment. Thus, identifying patients who will benefit from this strategy is challenging. Therefore, this study aimed to identify older adult patients suitable for a different ED approach as well as independent variables associated with poor short-term clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We included all patients ≥65 years attending 52 EDs in Spain over 7 days. Sociodemographic, comorbidity, and baseline functional status data were collected. The outcomes were 30-day mortality, re-presentation, hospital readmission, and the composite of all outcomes.

RESULTS

During the study among 96,014 patients evaluated in the ED, we included 23,338 patients ≥65 years-mean age, 78.4±8.1 years; 12,626 (54.1%) women. During follow-up, 5,776 patients (24.75%) had poor outcomes after evaluation in the ED: 1,140 (4.88%) died, 4,640 (20.51) returned to the ED, and 1,739 (7.69%) were readmitted 30 days after discharge following the index visit. A model including male sex, age ≥75 years, arrival by ambulance, Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, and functional impairment had a C-index of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.82) for 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Male sex, age ≥75 years, arrival by ambulance, functional impairment, or severe comorbidity are features of patients who could benefit from approaches in the ED different from the common triage to improve the poor short-term outcomes of this population.

Geriatric Population Triage: The Risk of Real-Life Over- and Under-Triage in an Overcrowded ED: 4- and 5-Level Triage Systems Compared: The CREONTE (Crowding and R E Organization National TriagE) Study

Elderly patients, when they present to the emergency department (ED) or are admitted to the hospital, are at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as higher mortality and longer hospital stays. This is mainly due to their age and their increased fragility. In order to minimize this already increased risk, adequate triage is of foremost importance for fragile geriatric (>75 years old) patients who present to the ED. The admissions of elderly patients from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2020 were examined, taking into consideration the presence of two different triage systems, a 4-level (4LT) and a 5-level (5LT) triage system. This study analyzes the difference in wait times and under- (UT) and over-triage (OT) in geriatric and general populations with two different triage models. Another outcome of this study was the analysis of the impact of crowding and its variables on the triage system during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 423,257 ED presentations were included. An increase in admissions of geriatric, more fragile, and seriously ill individuals was observed, and a progressive increase in crowding was simultaneously detected. Geriatric patients, when presenting to the emergency department, are subject to the problems of UT and OT in both a 4LT system and a 5LT system. Several indicators and variables of crowding increased, with a net increase in throughput and output factors, notably the length of stay (LOS), exit block, boarding, and processing times. This in turn led to an increase in wait times and an increase in UT in the geriatric population. It has indeed been shown that an increase in crowding results in an increased risk of UT, and this is especially true for 4LT compared to 5LT systems. When observing the pandemic period, an increase in admissions of older and more serious patients was observed. However, in the pandemic period, a general reduction in waiting times was observed, as well as an increase in crowding indices and intrahospital mortality. This study demonstrates how introducing a 5LT system enables better flow and patient care in an ED. Avoiding UT of geriatric patients, however, remains a challenge in EDs.

Clinical Frailty Scale at presentation to the emergency department: interrater reliability and use of algorithm-assisted assessment

PURPOSE

The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) allows health care providers to quickly stratify older patients, to support clinical decision-making. However, few studies have evaluated the CFS interrater reliability (IRR) in Emergency Departments (EDs), and the freely available smartphone application for CFS assessment was never tested for reliability. This study aimed to evaluate the interrater reliability of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) ratings between experienced and unexperienced staff (ED clinicians and a study team (ST) of medical students supported by a smartphone application to assess the CFS), and to determine the feasibility of CFS assignment in patients aged 65 or older at triage.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using consecutive sampling of ED patients aged 65 or older. We compared assessments by ED clinicians (Triage Clinicians (TC) and geriatric ED trained nurses (geriED-TN)) and a study team (ST) of medical students using a smartphone application for CFS scoring. The study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05400707).

RESULTS

We included 1349 patients aged 65 and older. Quadratic-weighted kappa values for ordinal CFS levels showed a good IRR between TC and ST (ϰ = 0.73, 95% CI 0.69-0.76), similarly to that between TC and geriED-TN (ϰ = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.82) and between the ST and geriED-TN (ϰ = 0.74, 95% CI 0.63-0.81). A CFS rating was assigned to 972 (70.2%) patients at triage.

CONCLUSION

We found good IRR in the assessment of frailty with the CFS in different ED providers and a team using a smartphone application to support rating. A CFS assessment occurred in more than two-thirds (70.2%) of patients at triage.

Geriatric predictors of response and adverse events in older patients with cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Immunotherapy with checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) has improved cancer treatment in recent years. Older and frail patients are frequently treated with ICIs, but since they have been underrepresented in previous clinical trials, the real impact of ICI in this patient group is not well defined. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence for associations between geriatric impairments and treatment outcomes in older patients with advanced and metastatic cancer treated with ICIs.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science for relevant articles published before June 2022. Studies investigating the association between impairments in at least two geriatric domains and treatment outcome were considered eligible. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment using the QUIPS tool was performed independently by two investigators.

RESULTS

A total of nine studies were included. Median sample size of the studies was 92 patients (interquartile range (IQR) 47-113), with a median of 26 frail patients (IQR 21-35). Five studies investigated disease-related and survival outcomes, and two of them found a statistically significant association between geriatric impairments and either survival or disease progression. Eight studies investigated toxicity outcomes, and two of them showed a statistically significant association between geriatric impairments and immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Few studies suggested a relation between geriatric impairments and worse clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Only a few studies have investigated the association between geriatric impairments and treatment outcomes and these studies were small. Older patients with geriatric impairments seem to be more likely to experience irAEs, but larger studies that include frail patients and use geriatric screening tools are required to confirm this association. These studies will be essential to improve the development of specific strategies to deal with frail patients.

Elderly patients with non-specific complaints at the emergency department have a high risk for admission and 30-days mortality

BACKGROUND

Older adults have complex medical needs that causes increased use of resources at the emergency department (ED). The prevalence of non-specific complaint (NSC) as a chief-complaint in the ED is common among older adults and is not prioritized even though possibly having worse clinical outcome. The objective was to study hospital admission and mortality for older adults visiting the ED with NSC compared to specific complaints such as dyspnea, chest pain and abdominal pain.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study of older adults visiting the ED with NSC and specific complaints; dyspnea, chest pain and abdominal pain was performed. Chief-complaint were collected from electronic medical records. Fatigue, confusion, non-specific complaints, generalized weakness and risk of falling were defined as non-specific complaint (NSC) when registered as chief-complaint at the ED. Admission rate and 30-days mortality were the primary outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 4927 patients were included in the study based on chief-complaint; patients with chest pain 1599 (32%), dyspnea 1343 (27%), abdominal pain 1460 (30%) and NSC 525 (11%). Patients with dyspnea and NSC had the highest hospital admission rate 79% vs 70% compared to patients with chest pain (63%) and abdominal pain (61%) (p =  < 0.001). Patients with NSC had a mean LOS 4.7 h at the ED which was significantly higher compared to chest pain, dyspnea and abdominal pain. Mean bed-days for the whole population was 4.2 days compared to patients with NSC who had a mean LOS of 5.6 days. NSC and dyspnea were both associated with the highest 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Older patients who present with NSC at the ED are associated with a high risk for admission and 30-days mortality. In addition, patients with NSC have a longer LOS at the ED, a high admission rate and the highest number of bed-days once admitted. This study indicates that ED staff should be more vigilant when an elderly patient presents with NSC at the ED. Further studies and guidelines are needed to improve the management of these individuals.

Assessing Physiologic Reserve and Frailty in the Older Emergency Department Patient: Should the Paradigm Change?

Older patients are more vulnerable to acute illness or injury because of reduced physiologic reserve associated with aging. Therefore, their assessment in the emergency department (ED) should include not only vital signs and their baseline values but also changes that reflect physiologic reserve, such as mobility, mental status, and frailty. Combining aggregated vitals sign scores and frailty might improve risk stratification in the ED. Implementing these changes in ED assessment may require the introduction of senior-friendly processes to ensure ED treatment is appropriate to the older patients' immediate discomfort, personal goals, and likely prognosis.

Association between the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Inpatient Mortality in Hospitalized Older Veterans with COVID-19 Infection

OBJECTIVES

Determine the association of high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) values with inpatient mortality and other outcomes in older veterans hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

This was a retrospective, multicenter, cohort study of hospitalized adults, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection who were studied for 1 year after discharge or until death. The NLR was categorized into tertiles, and we determined frailty status with the 31-item Veterans Affairs Frailty Index. Multivariate logistic regression and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were performed to assess the association between NLR and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The study included 615 hospitalized adult veterans, mean age 66.12 (standard deviation 14.79) years, 93.82% (n = 577) male, 57.56% (n = 354) White, 81.0% (n = 498) non-Hispanic, median body mass index of 30.70 (interquartile range 25.64-34.99, standard deviation 7.13), and median length of stay of 8 days (interquartile range 3-15). Individuals in the middle and upper tertile groups had higher inpatient mortality (8.37%, n = 17 and 18.36%, n = 38, respectively) as compared with the lower tertile (2.93%, n = 6, P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest tertile, the middle and upper tertiles had a higher risk of inpatient mortality (aOR 3.75, 95% CI 1.38-10.21, P = 0.01, and aOR 8.13, 95% CI 3.18-20.84, P < 0.001, respectively). The highest tertile had a higher odds of intensive care unit admission (aOR 4.47, 95% CI 2.33-8.58, P < 0.001) and intensive care unit transfer (aOR 3.54, 95% CI 1.84-6.81, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NLR score is a clinically useful tool to predict in-hospital mortality in older patients with COVID-19.

Diagnostic Accuracy of a Trauma Risk Assessment Tool Among Geriatric Patients With Crash Injuries

ABSTRACT

The Score for Trauma Triage in the Geriatric and Middle-Aged (STTGMA) is a risk stratification tool. We evaluated the STTGMA's accuracy in predicting 30-day mortality and the odds of unfavorable clinical trajectories among crash-related trauma patients. This retrospective cohort study (n = 912) pooled adults aged 55 years and older from a single institutional trauma database. The data were split into training and test data sets (70:30 ratio) for the receiver operating curve analysis and internal validation, respectively. The outcome variables were 30-day mortality and measures of clinical trajectory. The predictor variable was the high-energy STTGMA score (STTGMAHE). We adjusted for the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status. Using the training and test data sets, STTGMAHE exhibited 82% (95% CI: 65.5-98.3) and 96% (90.7-100.0) accuracies in predicting 30-day mortality, respectively. The STTGMA risk categories significantly stratified the proportions of orthopedic trauma patients who required intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, major and minor complications, and the length of stay (LOS). The odds of ICU admissions, major and minor complications, and the median difference in the LOS increased across the risk categories in a dose-response pattern. STTGMAHE exhibited an excellent level of accuracy in identifying middle-aged and geriatric trauma patients at risk of 30-day mortality and unfavorable clinical trajectories.

[Frailty in the Emergency Department]

Frailty affects approximately one in two patients over 70 years of age in the emergency department. These are inadequately identified as high-risk patients using conventional triage tools. Frailty screening improves the identification of high-risk patients with increased hospitalisation and readmission rates, 30-day and one-year mortality. Unspecific complaints and geriatric syndromes should be recognised as red flags, and age-specific peculiarities of vital signs should be taken into account. A holistic evaluation should already be carried out in the emergency department, as focusing on individual problems is not target-oriented. All patients identified in the screening should be evaluated geriatrically in the course. For patients with frailty, the improvement of subjective well-being is in the foreground. Inpatient admission is partly avoidable, even if this is associated with health risks. This should be discussed with the patient within the framework of participatory decision-making. In advanced frailty, the needs correspond to those of palliative patients.

A short multi-factor screening tool to assess falls-risk in older people presenting to an Australian emergency department: A feasibility study

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate use of a short multi-factor falls-risk screening tool for older people within the emergency department, to enable rapid identification of falls-risk and triggers for multidisciplinary referral for further falls-specific assessment.

METHODS

Older people, aged ≥70 years, presenting to the emergency department with a fall-related injury or disease (n = 137) were recruited by a research nurse following randomisation. A short multi-factor screening tool was completed, comprised of 14 falls-risk-related assessment components.

RESULTS

Only one participant did not generate any referrals. Participants generated most referrals for medications (85.4%), social and housing (84.6%), vision (67.2%), podiatry (66.9%), or function and mobility (54.7%). Based on our results, the screening tool could be reduced to eleven components. The median time-to-screen was 11 min (IQR 9-15), with 736 triggers generated for referral and further assessment of falls-risk.

CONCLUSION

Falls are a major cause of ED presentation for older people. A short multi-factor screening tool with eleven components could be adapted to local familiar falls-risk tools and be completed in less than 10 min. Further research to trial the feasibility of completing ED referrals based on screening results is required to confirm the usefulness of such screening and referral within the ED.

Predicting Short-Term Mortality in Older Patients Discharged from Acute Hospitalizations Lasting Less Than 24 Hours

Purpose

Over coming decades, a rise in the number of short, acute hospitalizations of older people is to be expected. To help physicians identify high-risk patients prior to discharge, we aimed to develop a model capable of predicting the risk of 30-day mortality for older patients discharged from short, acute hospitalizations and to examine how model performance changed with an increasing amount of information.

Methods

This registry-based study included acute hospitalizations in Denmark for 2016-2018 lasting ≤24 hours where patients were permanent residents, ≥65 years old, and discharged alive. Utilizing many different predictor variables, we developed random forest models with an increasing amount of information, compared their performance, and examined important variables.

Results

We included 107,132 patients with a median age of 75 years. Of these, 3.3% (n=3575) died within 30 days of discharge. Model performance improved especially with the addition of laboratory results and information on prior acute admissions (AUROC 0.835), and again with comorbidities and number of prescription drugs (AUROC 0.860). Model performance did not improve with the addition of sociodemographic variables (AUROC 0.861), apart from age and sex. Important variables included age, dementia, number of prescription drugs, C-reactive protein, and eGFR.

Conclusion

The best model accurately estimated the risk of short-term mortality for older patients following short, acute hospitalizations. Trained on a large and heterogeneous dataset, the model is applicable to most acute clinical settings and could be a useful tool for physicians prior to discharge.

Prevalence and risk factors of burden among caregivers of older emergency department patients

The number of older individuals that live independently at home is rising. These older individuals often rely on caregivers who have a similar age and health status. Therefore, caregivers may experience a high burden. We determined the prevalence and associating factors of burden among caregivers of older patients in the emergency department (ED). A cross-sectional study of primary caregivers of patients aged ≥ 70 years visiting the ED of a Dutch teaching hospital was performed. Structured interviews were conducted with patients and their caregivers. Caregiver burden was measured using the caregiver strain index (CSI). Additionally, data from questionnaires and medical records were extracted to determine potential associating factors. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify independent determinants for burden. Seventy-eight caregivers (39%) experienced a high burden. Multivariate analysis showed a significant association between high caregiver burden and patients with cognitive impairment or dependency for instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and more self-reported hours of care per day. Almost 40% of older patients in the ED have a caregiver who experiences a high burden. Formal assessment in the ED may help provide adequate care to the patients and their caregivers.

Crosswalk between Charlson Comorbidity Index and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score for Geriatric Trauma Assessment

The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade better risk stratifies geriatric trauma patients, but it is only reported in patients scheduled for surgery. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), however, is available for all patients. This study aims to create a crosswalk from the CCI to ASA-PS. Geriatric trauma cases, aged 55 years and older with both ASA-PS and CCI values (N = 4223), were used for the analysis. We assessed the relationship between CCI and ASA-PS, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, and body mass index. We reported the predicted probabilities and the receiver operating characteristics. A CCI of zero was highly predictive of ASA-PS grade 1 or 2, and a CCI of 1 or higher was highly predictive of ASA-PS grade 3 or 4. Additionally, while a CCI of 3 predicted ASA-PS grade 4, a CCI of 4 and higher exhibited greater accuracy in predicting ASA-PS grade 4. We created a formula that may accurately situate a geriatric trauma patient in the appropriate ASA-PS grade after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, and body mass index. In conclusion, ASA-PS grades can be predicted from CCI, and this may aid in generating more predictive trauma models.

Integrating the clinical frailty scale with emergency department triage systems for elder patients: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

This prospective study investigated whether integrating the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) with a triage system would improve triage for older adult emergency department (ED) patients.

METHODS

We enrolled ED patients aged 65 years or older at 5 study sites in Taiwan between December 2020 and April 2021. All eligible patients were assigned a triage level by using the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) in accordance with usual practice. A CFS score was collected from them. The primary outcome was critical events, defined as ICU admission or in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes were ED medical expenditures, number of orders in the ED, and length of hospital stay (LOS). We applied a reclassification concept and integrated the CFS and TTAS to create the Triage Frailty Acuity Scale (TFAS). We compared the outcomes achieved between the TTAS and TFAS.

RESULTS

Of 1023 screened ED patients, 890 were enrolled. The majority were assigned to TTAS level 3 (73.26%) and had CFS scores of 4 to 9 (55.96%). The primary outcomes were better predicted by the TFAS than the TTAS (area under the curve [AUC] 0.82 vs. 064). Using multivariable approach, TTAS level 1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-13.4) and CFS score (OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.9-17.2) were significantly associated with the primary outcomes. For older adults at the highest triage level, the TFAS was not associated with an increase in the primary outcomes compared with the TTAS; however, the TFAS was associated with a significant decrease in the number of older ED patients assigned to triage levels 3 to 5. In addition, TFAS had a longer average LOS but did not have a higher average number of orders or ED medical expenditures compared to TTAS.

CONCLUSIONS

The TFAS identified more older ED patients who had been triaged as less emergent but proceeded to need ICU admission or in-hospital death. Incorporating the CFS into triage may reduce the under-triage of older adults in the ED.

Agreement and prognostic accuracy of three ED vulnerability screeners: findings from a prospective multi-site cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the agreement between three emergency department (ED) vulnerability screeners, including the InterRAI ED Screener, ER2, and PRISMA-7. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of screeners in predicting discharge home and extended ED lengths-of-stay (> 24 h).

METHODS

We conducted a nested sub-group study using data from a prospective multi-site cohort study evaluating frailty in older ED patients presenting to four Quebec hospitals. Research nurses assessed patients consecutively with the three screeners. We employed Cohen's Kappa to determine agreement, with high-risk cut-offs of three and four for the PRISMA-7, six for the ER2, and five for the interRAI ED Screener. We used logistic regression to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of instruments, testing them in their dichotomous, full, and adjusted forms (adjusting for age, sex, and hospital academic status).

RESULTS

We evaluated 1855 older ED patients across the four hospital sites. The mean age of our sample was 84 years. Agreement between the interRAI ED Screener and the ER2 was fair (K = 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40); agreement between the PRISMA-7 and ER2 was also fair (K = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.36-0.43). Agreement between interRAI ED Screener and PRISMA-7 was poor (K = 0.19; 95% CI 0.16-0.22). Using a cut-off of four for PRISMA-7 improved agreement with the ER2 (K = 0.55; 95% CI 0.51-0.59) and the ED Screener (K = 0.32; 95% CI 0.2-0.36). When predicting discharge home, the concordance statistics among models were similar in their dichotomous (c = 0.57-0.61), full (c = 0.61-0.64), and adjusted forms (c = 0.63-0.65), and poor for all models when predicting extended length-of-stay.

CONCLUSION

ED vulnerability scores from the three instruments had a fair agreement and were associated with important patient outcomes. The interRAI ED Screener best identifies older ED patients at greatest risk, while the PRISMA-7 and ER2 are more sensitive instruments.

Examining the utility and accuracy of the interRAI Emergency Department Screener in identifying high-risk older emergency department patients: A Canadian multiprovince prospective cohort study

Objectives

We set out to determine the accuracy of the interRAI Emergency Department (ED) Screener in predicting the need for detailed geriatric assessment in the ED. Our secondary objective was to determine the discriminative ability of the interRAI ED Screener for predicting the odds of discharge home and extended ED length of stay (>24 hours).

Methods

We conducted a multiprovince prospective cohort study in Canada. The need for detailed geriatric assessment was determined using the interRAI ED Screener and the interRAI ED Contact Assessment as the reference standard. A score of ≥5 was used to classify high-risk patients. Assessments were conducted by emergency and research nurses. We calculated the sensitivity, positive predictive value, and false discovery rate of the interRAI ED Screener. We employed logistic regression to predict ED outcomes while adjusting for age, sex, academic status, and the province of care.

Results

A total of 5629 older ED patients across 11 ED sites were evaluated using the interRAI ED Screener and 1061 were evaluated with the interRAI ED Contact Assessment. Approximately one-third of patients were discharged home or experienced an extended ED length of stay. The interRAI ED Screener had a sensitivity of 93%, a positive predictive value of 82%, and a false discovery rate of 18%. The interRAI ED Screener predicted discharge home and extended ED length of stay with fair accuracy.

Conclusion

The interRAI ED Screener is able to accurately and rapidly identify individuals with medical complexity. The interRAI ED Screener predicts patient-important health outcomes in older ED patients, highlighting its value for vulnerability screening.

Prognosis for older people at presentation to emergency department based on frailty and aggregated vital signs

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for older people based on aggregated vital signs lack the accuracy to predict mortality at presentation to the Emergency Department (ED). We aimed to develop and internally validate the Frailty adjusted Prognosis in ED tool (FaP-ED) for 30-day mortality combining frailty and aggregated vital signs.

METHODS

Single-center prospective cohort of undifferentiated ED patients aged 65 or older, consecutively sampled upon ED presentation from a tertiary Emergency Center. Vital signs were aggregated using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a measure of illness or injury severity and frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The FaP-ED was constructed by combining NEWS and CFS in multivariable logistic regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Measures of discrimination and calibration were assessed to evaluate predictive performance and internally validated using bootstrapping.

RESULTS

2250 patients were included, 67 (1.8%) were omitted from analyses due to missing CFS, loss to follow-up, or terminal illness. Thirty-day mortality rate was 5.4% (N = 122, 95% CI = 4.5%-6.4%). Median NEWS was 1 (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR): 0-3) and median CFS was 4 (IQR: 3-5). The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) for FaP-ED was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.83-0.90). This was significantly higher than NEWS (0.81, 95% CI = 0.77-0.85, DeLong: Z = 3.5, p < 0.001) or CFS alone (0.82, 95% CI = 0.78-0.86, DeLong: Z = 4.4, p < 0.001). Bootstrapped estimates of FaP-ED AUROC, calibration slope, and intercept were 0.86, 0.95, and -0.09, respectively, suggesting internal validity. A decision-threshold of CFS 5 and NEWS 3 was proposed based on qualitative comparison of positive Likelihood Ratio at all relevant FaP-ED cutoffs.

CONCLUSION

Combining aggregated vital signs and frailty accurately predicted 30-day mortality at ED presentation and illustrated an important clinical interaction between frailty and illness severity. Pending external validation, the Fap-ED operationalizes the concept of such "geriatric urgency" for the ED setting.

Clinical Frailty Scale as a predictor of short-term mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on diagnostic test accuracy

BACKGROUND

The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a representative frailty assessment tool in medicine. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to examine whether frailty defined based on the CFS could adequately predict short-term mortality in emergency department (ED) patients.

METHODS

The PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane libraries were searched for eligible studies until December 23, 2021. We included studies in which frailty was measured by the CFS and short-term mortality was reported for ED patients. All studies were screened by two independent researchers. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) values were calculated based on the data extracted from each study. Additionally, the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was calculated for effect size analysis, and the area under the curve (AUC) of summary receiver operating characteristics was calculated. Outcomes were in-hospital and 1-month mortality rate for patients with the CFS scores of ≥5, ≥6, and ≥7.

RESULTS

Overall, 17 studies (n = 45,022) were included. Although there was no evidence of publication bias, a high degree of heterogeneity was observed. For the CFS score of ≥5, the PLR, NLR, and DOR values for in-hospital mortality were 1.446 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.325-1.578), 0.563 (95% CI 0.355-0.893), and 2.728 (95% CI 1.872-3.976), respectively. In addition, the pooled statistics for 1-month mortality were 1.566 (95% CI 1.241-1.976), 0.582 (95% CI 0.430-0.789), and 2.696 (95% CI 1.673-4.345), respectively. Subgroup analysis of trauma patients revealed that the CFS score of ≥5 could adequately predict in-hospital mortality (PLR 1.641, 95% CI 1.242-2.170; NLR 0.580, 95% CI 0.461-0.729; DOR 2.883, 95% CI 1.994-4.168). The AUC values represented sufficient to good diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence that is published to date suggests that the CFS is an accurate and reliable tool for predicting short-term mortality in emergency patients.

The effectiveness of interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among older adults following Emergency Department discharge: umbrella review

Background

Population ageing is increasing rapidly worldwide. Older adults are frequent users of health care services including the Emergency Department (ED) and experience a number of adverse outcomes following an ED visit. Adverse outcomes include functional decline, unplanned hospital admission and an ED revisit. Given these adverse outcomes a number of interventions have been examined to improve the outcomes of older adults following presentation to the ED. The aim of this umbrella review was to evaluate the effectiveness of ED interventions in reducing adverse outcomes in older adults discharged from the ED.

Methods

Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials investigating ED interventions for older adults presenting to the ED exploring clinical, patient experience and healthcare utilisation outcomes were included. A comprehensive search strategy was employed in eleven databases and the PROSPERO register up until June 2020. Grey literature was also searched. Quality was assessed using the A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2 tool. Overlap between systematic reviews was assessed using a matrix of evidence table. An algorithm to assign the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation to assess the strength of evidence was applied for all outcomes.

Results

Nine systematic reviews including 29 randomised controlled trials were included. Interventions comprised of solely ED-based or transitional interventions. The specific interventions delivered were highly variable. There was high overlap and low methodological quality of the trials informing the systematic reviews. There is low quality evidence to support ED interventions in reducing functional decline, improving patient experience and improving quality of life. The quality of evidence of the effectiveness of ED interventions to reduce mortality and ED revisits varied from very low to moderate. Results were presented narratively and summary of evidence tables created.

Conclusion

Older adults are the most important emerging group in healthcare for several economic, social and political reasons. The existing evidence for the effectiveness of ED interventions for older adults is limited. This umbrella review highlights the challenge of synthesising evidence due to significant heterogeneity in methods, intervention content and reporting of outcomes. Higher quality intervention studies in line with current geriatric medicine research guidelines are recommended, rather than the publication of further systematic reviews.

Trial registration

UMBRELLA REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42020145315).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03007-5.

Using mobility status as a frailty indicator to improve the accuracy of a computerised five-level triage system among older patients in the emergency department

Background

Owing to societal ageing, the number of older individuals visiting emergency departments (EDs) has increased in recent years. For this patient population, accurate triage systems are required. This retrospective cohort study assessed the accuracy of a computerised five-level triage system, the Taiwan Triage and Acuity System (TTAS), by determining its ability to predict in-hospital mortality in older adult patients and compare it with the corresponding rate in younger adult patients presenting to EDs. The association between frailty, which the current triage system does not consider, was also investigated.

Methods

The medical records of adult patients admitted to a single ED between 2016 and 2017 were reviewed. Data collected included information on demographics, triage level, frailty status, in-hospital mortality, and medical resource utilisation. The patients were divided into four age groups: two older adult groups (older: 65–84 years and very old: ≥85 years) and two younger adult groups (young: 18–39 and middle-aged: 40–64 years).

Results

Our study included 265,219 ED adult patients, of whom 64,104 and 16,009 were in the older and very old groups, respectively. The in-hospital mortality rate at each triage level increased with age. The ability of the TTAS to predict in-hospital mortality decreased with age (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: young: 0.86; middle-aged, 0.84; and older and very old: 0.79). Frailty was associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 2.03–2.38). Adding mobility status as a frailty indicator to TTAS only slightly improved its ability to predict in-hospital mortality (AUROC: 0.74–0.77) in patients ≥65 years of age.

Conclusions

The ability of the current triage system to predict in-hospital mortality decreases with age. Although frailty as mobility was associated with in-hospital mortality, its addition to the TTAS only slightly improved the accuracy with which in-hospital mortality in older patients presenting to EDs was predicted.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-022-00646-0.

Identification through the Manchester Triage System of the older population at risk of delirium: A case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To identify the flow charts and discriminators of the Manchester Triage System that are most likely to identify the onset of delirium in older people.

BACKGROUND

Delirium is an underdiagnosed geriatric syndrome, and up to 80% of all cases of delirium go undetected in emergency departments. Patient triage seeks to manage clinical risk with a view to safely and appropriately managing patient flows.

DESIGN

A case-control study was performed according to the STROBE checklist.

SETTING

The emergency department of a secondary hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Older adults aged ≥65 years and admitted from 1 January to 31 December 2020.

METHODS

Older patients were identified from the emergency department research database. Cases were defined as patients diagnosed with delirium (n = 128), excluding cases of delirium due to alcohol or substance abuse. Controls were randomised from the remaining patients (n = 128).

RESULTS

A total of 29.35% of the subjects admitted to the emergency department were older adults with an incidence of delirium of 0.7%. The flow charts with the highest probability of delirium were 'unwell adult' [OR = 3.04 (95%CI:1.82-5.1)] and 'behaving strangely' [OR = 16.06 (95%CI:3.72-69.29)], and the discriminators were 'rapid onset' [OR = 3.3 (95%CI:1.85-5.88)] and 'new neurological deficit less than 24 h old' [OR = 4.76 (95%%CI:1.01-22.5). The area under the curve for 'unwell adult' in the presence of dementia, previous stroke and fall in the previous 30 days was 0.73 (95%CI: 0.67-0.79), and that for 'behaving strangely' in the presence of diabetes was 0.75 (95%CI: 0.69-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

Knowing which flow charts, discriminators and risk factors are most likely to predict delirium allows the identification of the older population at risk for triage screening in emergency departments.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Risk factors such as diabetes, dementia, previous stroke and recent fall among 'unwell adult' or 'behaving strangely' triaged older persons should be assessed for the probable presence of delirium.

The clinical frailty scale predicts 1-year mortality in emergency department patients aged 65 years and older

OBJECTIVE

To validate the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) for prediction of 1-year all-cause mortality in the emergency department (ED) and compare its performance to the Emergency Severity Index (ESI).

METHODS

Prospective cohort study at the ED of a tertiary care center in Northwestern Switzerland. All patients aged ≥65 years were included from March 18 to May 20, 2019, after informed consent. Frailty status was assessed using CFS, excluding level 9 (palliative). Acuity level was assessed using ESI. Both CFS and ESI were adjusted for age, sex and presenting condition in multivariable logistic regression. Prognostic performance was assessed for discrimination and calibration separately. Estimates were internally validated by Bootstrapping. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) was determined for all levels of CFS.

RESULTS

In the final study population of 2191 patients, 1-year all-cause mortality was 17% (n = 372). RMST values ranged from 219 days for CFS 8 to 365 days for CFS 1. The adjusted CFS model had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.767 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.741-0.793), compared to 0.703 (95% CI: 0.673-0.732) for the adjusted ESI model.

CONCLUSION

The CFS predicts 1-year all-cause mortality for older ED patients and predicts survival time in a graded manner. The CFS is superior to the ESI when adjusted for age, sex, and presenting condition.

A Comparative Analysis of Hospital Triage Systems in the Geriatric Adult Trauma Patients: A Quality Improvement Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

The objective of our study is to compare the predicted hospital admission disposition based on the level of risk as determined by the modified Trauma-Specific Frailty Index (mTSFI) score with those determined by arbitrary decisions made based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) severity level.

METHODS

We surveyed 100 trauma patients ages 50 and older, admitted to a level 1 trauma center between April 2019 and July 2019. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital admission disposition of each patient under the ESI, which was then compared to the mTSFI-predicted hospital admission disposition. The mTSFI scores were calculated by surveying each patient. Statistical analysis was performed to identify any statistical significance of concordance and discordance when comparing the mTSFI and ESI.

RESULTS

The average age was 57.6 ± 4.2 years old in the non-geriatric group vs 76.3 ± 7.3 years old in the geriatric group. There was a male predominance in both groups (61% vs 69.5%). The mTSFI identified a higher percentage of triage discordance in the non-geriatric group (73%) compared to the geriatric cohort (53%) (95% difference CI, [39.6-40], P = .05).

DISCUSSION

Non-geriatric patients have higher recorded rate of frailty than previously recognized and screening should begin at age 50, not 65. The mTSFI may be an effective tool to appropriately triage adult trauma patients at increased risk due to frailty and may reduce in-hospital complications.

Medical history of coronary artery disease and time to electrocardiogram in the emergency department: a real-life, single-center, retrospective analysis

Background

Timely acquisition of 12-lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial and recommended by current guidelines.

Objectives

To evaluate the association of medical history of coronary artery disease (hCAD) on door-to-ECG time in the ED.

Methods

In this single center, retrospective cohort study, patients admitted to ED for cardiac evaluation were grouped according to hCAD and no hCAD. The primary outcome was door-to-ECG time. A multivariate analysis adjusted for the cofounders sex, age, type of referral and shift was performed to evaluate the association of hCAD with door-to-ECG time.

Results

1101 patients were included in this analysis. 362 patients (33%) had hCAD. Patients with hCAD had shorter door-to-ECG time (20 min. [Inter Quartile Range [IQR] 13–30] vs. 22 min. [IQR 14–37]; p < 0.001) when compared to patients with no hCAD. In a multivariable regression analysis hCAD was significantly associated with a shorter door-to-ECG time (− 3 min [p = 0.007; 95% confidence Interval [CI] − 5.16 to − 0.84 min]).

Conclusion

In this single center registry, hCAD was associated with shorter door-to-ECG time. In patients presenting in ED for cardiac evaluation, timely ECG diagnostic should be facilitated irrespective of hCAD.

Mortality risk for different presenting complaints amongst older patients assessed with the Manchester triage system

PURPOSE

Older people often present to the Emergency Department with nonspecific complaints. We aimed (1) to examine characteristics of older patients presenting to the ED triaged with the presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' of the Manchester triage system (MTS) and (2) to assess the different mortality and admission rates among triage categories.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study including all consecutive patients aged 70 years and older who visited the ED of a tertiary care hospital in the Netherlands during a 1-year period. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were 7-day mortality, hospital admission and ED length of stay.

RESULTS

4255 patients were included in this study. Mean age was 78 years (IQR 73.9-83.4) and 2098 were male (49.3%). The MTS presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' was the most commonly used flowchart (n = 815, 19.3%). After the infrequent flowchart 'major trauma' (n = 9, 13.8%), 'unwell adult' had the highest 30-day mortality (n = 88, 10.8%). When compared to all other flowcharts, patients assigned as 'unwell adult' have significantly higher 30-day mortality rates (OR 1.89 (95%CI 1.46-2.46), p =  < 0.001), also when adjusted for age, gender and triage priority (OR 1.75 (95%CI 1.32-2.31), p =  < 0.001). Patients from the 'unwell adult' flowchart had the highest hospital admission rate (n = 540, 66.3%), and had among the longest ED length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Older ED patients are most commonly assigned the presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' when using the MTS. Patients in this category have the highest non-trauma mortality and highest hospital admission rates when compared to other presenting complaints.

Comorbidity-adjusted NEWS predicts mortality in suspected patients with COVID-19 from nursing homes: Multicentre retrospective cohort study

Aims

To assess the prognostic accuracy of comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score in suspected Coronavirus disease 2019 patients transferred from nursing homes by the Emergency Department.

Design

Multicentre retrospective cohort study.

Methods

Patients transferred by high‐priority ambulances from nursing homes to Emergency Departments with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, from March 12 to July 31 2020, were considered. Included variables were: clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and supplemental oxygen use), the presence of comorbidities and confirmatory analytical diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The primary outcome was a 2‐day mortality rate. The discriminatory capability of the National Early Warning Score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in two different cohorts, the validation and the revalidation, which were randomly selected from the main cohort.

Results

A total of 337 nursing homes, 10 advanced life support units, 51 basic life support units and 8 hospitals in Spain entailing 1,324 patients (median age 87 years) was involved in this study. Two‐day mortality was 11.5% (152 cases), with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 of 51.2%, 77.7% of hospitalization from whom 1% was of intensive care unit admission. The National Early Warning Score results for the revalidation cohort presented an AUC of 0.771, and of 0.885, 0.778 and 0.730 for the low‐, medium‐ and high‐level groups of comorbidities.

Conclusion

The comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score provides a good short‐term prognostic criterion, information that can help in the decision‐making process to guide the best strategy for each older adult, under the current pandemic.

Impact

What problem did the study address?

Under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, targeting older adults at high risk of deterioration in nursing homes remains challenging.

What were the main findings?

Comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score helps to forecast the risk of clinical deterioration more accurately.

Where and on whom will the research have impact?

A high NEWS, with a low level of comorbidity is associated with optimal predictive performance, making these older adults likely to benefit from continued follow up and potentially hospital referral under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Development and Assessment of an Interpretable Machine Learning Triage Tool for Estimating Mortality After Emergency Admissions

IMPORTANCE

Triage in the emergency department (ED) is a complex clinical judgment based on the tacit understanding of the patient's likelihood of survival, availability of medical resources, and local practices. Although a scoring tool could be valuable in risk stratification, currently available scores have demonstrated limitations.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an interpretable machine learning tool based on a parsimonious list of variables available at ED triage; provide a simple, early, and accurate estimate of patients' risk of death; and evaluate the tool's predictive accuracy compared with several established clinical scores.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-site, retrospective cohort study assessed all ED patients between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) tool was derived using a machine learning framework. To estimate mortality outcomes after emergency admissions, SERP was compared with several triage systems, including Patient Acuity Category Scale, Modified Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score. The initial analyses were completed in October 2020, and additional analyses were conducted in May 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Three SERP scores, namely SERP-2d, SERP-7d, and SERP-30d, were developed using the primary outcomes of interest of 2-, 7-, and 30-day mortality, respectively. Secondary outcomes included 3-day mortality and inpatient mortality. The SERP's predictive power was measured using the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 224 666 ED episodes in the model training cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.60 [16.90] years; 113 426 [50.5%] female), 56 167 episodes in the validation cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.58 [16.87] years; 28 427 [50.6%] female), and 42 676 episodes in the testing cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 64.85 [16.80] years; 21 556 [50.5%] female). The mortality rates in the training cohort were 0.8% at 2 days, 2.2% at 7 days, and 5.9% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of SERP-30d were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.796-0.847) for 2-day mortality, 0.826 (95% CI, 0.811-0.841) for 7-day mortality, and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.814-0.832) for 30-day mortality and outperformed several benchmark scores.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective cohort study, SERP had better prediction performance than existing triage scores while maintaining easy implementation and ease of ascertainment in the ED. It has the potential to be widely applied and validated in different circumstances and health care settings.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study

Background

During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting.

Objective

The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands.

Methods

This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74–84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6–9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1–3, patients with CFS 4–5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–3.0)) and patients with CFS 6–9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8–4.3)).

Conclusions

The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

Emergency department management of older people living with frailty: a guide for emergency practitioners

Emergency Departments (EDs) are increasingly seeing more seriously unwell older people living with frailty. In the context of limited resources and increasing demand it's the ED practitioner's challenge to unpick this constellation of physical, psychological, functional and social issues.To properly assess older people living with frailty at the ED it is crucial to use an holistic approach. This consists of triage with algorithms sensitive to the higher risk of older people living with frailty, a frailty assessment, and an assessment with the help of the principles of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. Multi-disciplinary care, a tailor-made treatment plan, based on what the person values most, will help the ED practitioner to deliver appropriate and valuable care during the ED stay, but also in transition from hospital to home.

COVID-19 is not over and age is not enough: Using frailty for prognostication in hospitalized patients

Background

Frailty screening using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) has been proposed to guide resource allocation in acute care settings during the pandemic. However, the association between frailty and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) prognosis remains unclear.

Objectives

To investigate the association between frailty and mortality over 6 months in middle‐aged and older patients hospitalized with COVID‐19 and the association between acute morbidity severity and mortality across frailty strata.

Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting

Large academic medical center in Brazil.

Participants

A total of 1830 patients aged ≥50 years hospitalized with COVID‐19 (March–July 2020).

Measurements

We screened baseline frailty using the CFS (1–9) and classified patients as fit to managing well (1–3), vulnerable (4), mildly (5), moderately (6), or severely frail to terminally ill (7–9). We also computed a frailty index (0–1; frail >0.25), a well‐known frailty measure. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between frailty and time to death within 30 days and 6 months of admission. We also examined whether frailty identified different mortality risk levels within strata of similar age and acute morbidity as measured by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score.

Results

Median age was 66 years, 58% were male, and 27% were frail to some degree. Compared with fit‐to‐managing‐well patients, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) for 30‐day and 6‐month mortality were, respectively, 1.4 (1.1–1.7) and 1.4 (1.1–1.7) for vulnerable patients; 1.5 (1.1–1.9) and 1.5 (1.1–1.8) for mild frailty; 1.8 (1.4–2.3) and 1.9 (1.5–2.4) for moderate frailty; and 2.1 (1.6–2.7) and 2.3 (1.8–2.9) for severe frailty to terminally ill. The CFS achieved outstanding accuracy to identify frailty compared with the Frailty Index (area under the curve = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.93–0.95) and predicted different mortality risks within age and acute morbidity groups.

Conclusions

Our results encourage the use of frailty, alongside measures of acute morbidity, to guide clinicians in prognostication and resource allocation in hospitalized patients with COVID‐19.

A fuller picture of COVID-19 prognosis: the added value of vulnerability measures to predict mortality in hospitalised older adults

BACKGROUND

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionally affects older adults, the use of conventional triage tools in acute care settings ignores the key aspects of vulnerability.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the usefulness of adding a rapid vulnerability screening to an illness acuity tool to predict mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Large university hospital dedicated to providing COVID-19 care.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants included are 1,428 consecutive inpatients aged ≥50 years.

METHODS

Vulnerability was assessed using the modified version of PRO-AGE score (0-7; higher = worse), a validated and easy-to-administer tool that rates physical impairment, recent hospitalisation, acute mental change, weight loss and fatigue. The baseline covariates included age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), a well-known illness acuity tool. Our outcome was time-to-death within 60 days of admission.

RESULTS

The patients had a median age of 66 years, and 58% were male. The incidence of 60-day mortality ranged from 22% to 69% across the quartiles of modified PRO-AGE. In adjusted analysis, compared with modified PRO-AGE scores 0-1 ('lowest quartile'), the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for 60-day mortality for modified PRO-AGE scores 2-3, 4 and 5-7 were 1.4 (1.1-1.9), 2.0 (1.5-2.7) and 2.8 (2.1-3.8), respectively. The modified PRO-AGE predicted different mortality risk levels within each stratum of NEWS and improved the discrimination of mortality prediction models.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding vulnerability to illness acuity improved accuracy of predicting mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Combining tools such as PRO-AGE and NEWS may help stratify the risk of mortality from COVID-19.

Should age be incorporated into the adult triage algorithm in the emergency department?

OBJECTIVE

To compare resource utilization and mortality between older and younger adult patients with similar ED chief complaints and ESI triage levels.

METHODS

This was an observational study of consecutive adult patients (age ≥ 40) who presented to an academic ED over a 1-year period with chest pain, abdominal pain, altered mental status, generalized weakness, or headache. Patients were categorized into 40-64, 65-79, and ≥ 80-year old groups. Mortality and utilization outcomes were compared between age groups through logistic regression models or Cox proportional hazards adjusting for ESI level and chief complaint. Odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

A total of 9798 ED visits were included. As compared to younger adults (age 40-64), older adults, independently of ESI level and chief complaint, had higher ED laboratory use (OR 1.46 [CI 1.29, 1.66] for age 65-80; OR 1.33 [CI 1.15, 1.55] for age ≥ 80), ED radiology use (OR 1.40 [CI 1.26, 1.56]; OR 1.48 [CI 1.30, 1.69]), hospital admission (OR 1.56 [CI 1.42, 1.72]; OR 1.97 [CI 1.75, 2.21]), and ICU admission (OR 1.38 [CI 1.15, 1.65]; OR 1.23 [CI 0.99, 1.52]). Despite similar ESI and chief complaint, patients age 65-79 and ≥ 80 had higher 30-day mortality rates (HR 1.87 [CI 1.39 to 2.51] and 2.47 [CI 1.81 to 3.37], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with similar chief complaints and ESI levels than younger adults, have significantly higher ED resource use, hospitalization rates, and mortality.