Modelling the potential prevention benefits of a treat-all hepatitis C treatment strategy at global, regional and country levels: A modelling study

Evaluating the effect of direct-acting antiviral agent treatment scale-up on Hepatitis C virus prevalence among people who inject drugs in UK

BACKGROUND

There is limited empirical work assessing the effectiveness of treatment as prevention (TasP) in reducing HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID). Here, we used survey data from the UK during 2010-2020, to evaluate the impact of direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) treatment scale-up, which started in 2015, on HCV prevalence among PWID.

METHODS

We fitted a logistic regression to time/location specific data on prevalence from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative in Scotland and Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring programme in England. For each post-intervention year and location, we quantified the effect of TasP as the difference between estimated prevalence and its counterfactual (prevalence in the absence of scale-up). Progress to elimination was assessed by comparing most recent prevalence against one in 2015.

RESULTS

In 2015, prevalence ranged from 0.44 to 0.71 across the 23 locations (3 Scottish, 20 English). Compared to counterfactuals, there was an absolute reduction of 46% (95% credible interval [32%,59%]) in Tayside in 2020, 35% ([24%,44%]) in Glasgow in 2019, and 25% ([10%,39%]) in the Rest of Scotland in 2020. The English sites with highest estimated absolute reductions in 2021 were South Yorkshire (45%, [29%,58%]), Thames Valley (49%, [34%,59%]) and West London (41%, [14%,59%]). Compared to 2015, there was 80% probability that prevalence had fallen by 65% in Tayside, 53% in Glasgow and 36% in the Rest of Scotland. The English sites with highest % prevalence decrease compared to 2015, achieved with probability 80%, were Chesire & Merseyside (70%), South Yorkshire (65%) and Thames Valley (71%). Higher treatment intensity was associated with higher reductions in prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Conclusion. Real-world evidence showing substantial reductions in chronic HCV associated with increase of HCV treatment scale-up in the community thus supporting the effectiveness of HCV treatmen as prevention in people who inject drugs.

Predictors of engagement in screening for a hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment trial in a rural Appalachian community

An HCV treatment trial was initiated in September 2019 to address the opioid/hepatitis C virus (HCV) syndemic in rural Kentucky. The focus of the current analysis is on participation in diagnostic screening for the trial. Initial eligibility (≥18 years of age, county resident) was established by phone followed by in-person HCV viremia testing. 900 rural residents met the inclusion criteria and comprised the analytic sample. Generalized linear models were specified to estimate the relative risk of non-attendance at the in-person visit determining HCV eligibility. Approximately one-quarter (22.1%) of scheduled participants were no-shows. People who inject drugs were no more likely than people not injecting drugs to be a no-show; however, participants ≤35 years of age were significantly less likely to attend. While the median time between phone screening and scheduled in-person screening was only 2 days, each additional day increased the odds of no-show by 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%-3%). Finally, unknown HCV status predicted no-show even after adjustment for age, gender, days between screenings and injection status. We found that drug injection did not predict no-show, further justifying expanded access to HCV treatment among people who inject drugs. Those 35 years and younger were more likely to no-show, suggesting that younger individuals may require targeted strategies for increasing testing and treatment uptake. Finally, streamlining the treatment cascade may also improve outcomes, as participants in the current study were more likely to attend if there were fewer days between phone screening and scheduled in-person screening.

Medicaid Hepatitis C Virus Treatment Policies: Impact on Testing and Treatment in the Commercially Insured

INTRODUCTION

A total of 23 state Medicaid programs continue to restrict hepatitis C virus (HCV) medication access by liver disease or substance-use criteria, creating obstacles to HCV elimination and significant care disparities. Because public insurers often set precedents for private insurer coverage and clinician practice patterns, this study sought to analyze whether spillover occurs from state Medicaid HCV treatment restrictions to HCV screening and treatment rates in commercially insured individuals.

METHODS

Investigators analyzed 2014‒2017 commercial claims data across 48 U.S. states (721,961,965 person-months) and used an interrupted times series design to compare hepatitis C virus screening and treatment rates before and after state Medicaid HCV treatment policy changes, adjusting for state-level random effects, Medicaid expansion status, and state drug overdose incidence rates, in states that relaxed Medicaid policy over the study period. Analysis occurred during 2019‒2021.

RESULTS

Hepatitis C virus screening rates among commercially insured individuals increased after the corresponding state Medicaid program relaxed HCV treatment policy. Among states that changed Medicaid policy, those that reduced fibrosis or both fibrosis and abstinence restrictions experienced increased HCV screening rates by the study end compared with states that changed only abstinence restrictions (rate ratio=1.29; 95% CI=1.15, 1.44; and rate ratio=1.32; 95% CI=1.17, 1.50, respectively). Similar patterns did not occur in HCV treatment rates, which declined after 2015 across groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show that HCV screening rates increased among commercially insured individuals after the removal of Medicaid HCV treatment restrictions in the same state. This suggests that Medicaid treatment policies can spill over to affect health outcomes among commercially insured populations.

Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO

One of the main goals of the 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis is the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health problem by 2030, defined as an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality relative to 2015. Although monitoring HCV incidence is key to validating HCV elimination, use of the gold-standard method, which involves prospective HCV retesting of people at risk, can be prohibitively resource-intensive. Additionally, few countries collected quality data in 2015 to enable an 80% decrease by 2030 to be calculated. Here, we first review different methods of monitoring HCV incidence and discuss their resource implications and applicability to various populations. Second, using mathematical models developed for various global settings, we assess whether trends in HCV chronic prevalence or HCV antibody prevalence or scale-up levels for HCV testing, treatment, and preventative interventions can be used as reliable alternative indicators to validate the HCV incidence target. Third, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of an absolute HCV incidence target and suggest a suitable threshold. Finally, we propose three options that countries can use to validate the HCV incidence target, depending on the available surveillance infrastructure.

Clinical and economic impact of an alert system in primary care for the detection of patients with chronic hepatitis C

INTRODUCTION

Prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is higher in patients born between 1955-1975. The aim was to perform an economic evaluation of an age-based electronic health record (EHR) alert in primary care to detect patients with undiagnosed CHC and its treatment in comparison with non-use of the alert system, in Valencian Community, Spain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Decision trees and Markov model were used to evaluate the diagnosis and progression of the disease, respectively. CHC was diagnosed by serology and viral load in seropositive subjects. Epidemiological data and diagnostic costs were extracted from public sources of the Valencian Community. Probabilities, utilities and costs of model states were obtained from the literature. The impact on mortality and hepatic complications avoided by the implementation of the alert were estimated, and efficiency was measured as an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and the costs of both alternatives.

RESULTS

The EHR alert detected 269,548 patients, of whom 1,331 had CHC (vs. 23 patients with non-alert). Over the patients' lifetime, the alert would prevent 93% of decompensated cirrhosis cases, 87% of hepatocellular carcinomas, 90% of liver transplants, and 89% of liver related deaths compared to non-use of the alert system. In addition, it would obtain an additional 3.3 QALY per patient, with an incremental cost of €10,880 and an ICUR of €3,321.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of an age-based EHR alert in primary care to detect patients with CHC reduces hepatic complications and mortality and is an efficient strategy.

Evaluating the Prevention Benefit of HCV Treatment: Modeling the SToP-C Treatment as Prevention Study in Prisons

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Between 2014 and 2019, the SToP-C trial observed a halving in HCV incidence in four Australian prisons following scale-up of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. However, the contribution of HCV treatment to this decline is unclear because the study did not have a control group. We used modeling to consider this question.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We parameterized and calibrated a dynamic model of HCV transmission in prisons to data from each SToP-C prison on incarceration dynamics, injecting drug use, HCV prevalence trends among prison entrants, baseline HCV incidence before treatment scale-up, and subsequent HCV treatment scale-up. The model projected the decrease in HCV incidence resulting from increases in HCV treatment and other effects. We assessed whether the model agreed better with observed reductions in HCV incidence overall and by prison if we included HCV treatment scale-up, and its prevention benefits, or did not. The model estimated how much of the observed decrease in HCV incidence was attributable to HCV treatment in prison. The model projected a decrease in HCV incidence of 48.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 41.9-54.1) following treatment scale-up across the four prisons, agreeing with the observed HCV incidence decrease (47.6%; 95% CI, 23.4-64.2) from the SToP-C trial. Without any in-prison HCV treatment, the model indicated that incidence would have decreased by 7.2% (95% UI, -0.3 to 13.6). This suggests that 85.1% (95% UI, 72.6-100.6) of the observed halving in incidence was from HCV treatment scale-up, with the remainder from observed decreases in HCV prevalence among prison entrants (14.9%; 95% UI, -0.6 to 27.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate the prevention benefits of scaling up HCV treatment in prison settings. Prison-based DAA scale-up should be an important component of HCV elimination strategies.

Hepatitis C elimination among people incarcerated in prisons: challenges and recommendations for action within a health systems framework

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a global public health problem in correctional settings. The International Network on Health and Hepatitis in Substance Users-Prisons Network is a special interest group committed to advancing scientific knowledge exchange and advocacy for HCV prevention and care in correctional settings. In this Review, we highlight seven priority areas and best practices for improving HCV care in correctional settings: changing political will, ensuring access to HCV diagnosis and testing, promoting optimal models of HCV care and treatment, improving surveillance and monitoring of the HCV care cascade, reducing stigma and tackling the social determinants of health inequalities, implementing HCV prevention and harm reduction programmes, and advancing prison-based research.

What is required for achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Singapore? A modeling study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The vast majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Singapore is among those with a history of injecting drug use (IDU), yet harm reduction is not available and what is required to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination targets (80% incidence reduction and 65% mortality reduction by 2030) is unknown. We model the intervention scale-up required to achieve WHO targets in Singapore.

METHODS

A dynamic model of HCV transmission and progression among those with a history of IDU was calibrated to Singapore, a setting with declining IDU and no harm reduction (~11 000 people with IDU history in 2017 and 45% HCV seropositive). We projected HCV treatment scale-up from 2019 required to achieve WHO targets with varying prioritization scenarios, with/without opiate substitution therapy scale-up (to 40% among people who inject drugs [PWID]).

RESULTS

We estimated 3855 (95% confidence interval: 2635-5446) chronically HCV-infected individuals with a history of IDU and 148 (87-284) incident HCV cases in Singapore in 2019. Reaching the HCV incidence target requires 272 (187-384) treatments in 2019, totaling 2444 (1683-3452) across 2019-2030. By prioritizing PWID or PWID and cirrhotics, 60% or 30% fewer treatments are required, respectively, whereas the target cannot be achieved with cirrhosis prioritization. Opiate substitution therapy scale-up reduces treatments required by 21-24%. Achieving both WHO targets requires treating 631 (359-1047) in 2019, totaling 3816 (2664-5423) across 2019-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatitis C virus elimination is achievable in Singapore but even with declining IDU requires immediate treatment scale-up among PWID. Harm reduction provision reduces treatments required and provides additional benefits.

Has resourcing of non-governmental harm-reduction organizations in Ukraine improved HIV prevention and treatment outcomes for people who inject drugs? Findings from multiple bio-behavioural surveys

INTRODUCTION

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C (HCV). Since the turn of the century, various organizations have funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Ukraine to provide PWID with needles and syringes, condoms, HIV and HCV testing, and improve linkage to opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and HIV treatment. We investigated whether contact with these NGOs was associated with improved HIV prevention and treatment outcomes among PWID.

METHODS

Five rounds of respondent-driven sampled integrated bio-behavioural survey data (2009 [N = 3962], 2011 [N = 9069], 2013 [N = 9502], 2015 [N = 9405], and 2017 [N = 10076]) among PWID in Ukraine (including HIV/HCV testing and questionnaires) were analysed using mixed-effect logistic regression models (mixed-effects: city, year). These regression models assessed associations between being an NGO client and various behavioural, OAT, HIV testing and HIV treatment outcomes, adjusting for demographic characteristics (age, gender, lifetime imprisonment, registration in a drug abuse clinic, education level). We also assessed associations between being an NGO client and being HIV positive or HCV positive, likewise adjusting for demographic characteristics (as above).

RESULTS

NGO clients were more likely to have received HIV testing ever (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.37, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 4.97 to 5.80) or in the last year (aOR 3.37, 95% CI: 3.20 to 3.54), to have used condoms at last sexual intercourse (aOR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.44) and sterile needles at last injection (aOR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.56), to be currently (aOR 4.19, 95% CI: 3.48 to 5.05) or ever (aOR 2.52, 95% CI: 2.32 to 2.74) on OAT, and to have received syringes (aOR 109.89, 95% CI: 99.26 to 121.66) or condoms (aOR 54.39, 95% CI: 50.17 to 58.96) in the last year. PWID who were HIV positive (aOR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.48) or HCV positive (aOR 1.57, 95% CI: 1.49 to 1.65) were more likely to have contact with NGOs, with HIV positive PWID in contact with NGOs being more likely to be registered at AIDS centres (aOR 2.34, 95% CI: 1.88 to 2.92) and to be on antiretroviral therapy (aOR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Contact with PWID targeted NGOs in Ukraine is associated with consistently better preventive, HIV testing and HIV treatment outcomes, suggesting a beneficial impact of harm reduction NGO programming.

Prisoners should not be left behind in HCV research and policies

With a worldwide prevalence of 15.4%, hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been estimated to be the most prevalent major infectious disease in prisons. The exceptionally high prevalence of HCV in prisons is attributable to common risk behaviors including sharing contaminated tattooing equipment and drug paraphernalia, as well as lack of HCV control interventions including needle and syringe programs. Despite the importance of attention to prisoners as a highly at-risk population to acquire and transmit HCV, the number of HCV research and policy documents ignoring prisoners is increasing. Highlighting this issue, the present manuscript discusses how excluding prisoners from HCV-related research and policies will jeopardize the global HCV elimination goals set forth by the global community.

Hepatitis C elimination - Macro-elimination

In 2016 the WHO set a goal to obtain an 80% reduction in new chronic HCV cases, requiring a level of diagnosis of 90%, treatment coverage of 80% and resulting in a 65% reduction in HCV-related deaths by 2030. This goal is easier to reach in specific populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) or blood-transfusion recipients before screening for HCV became mandatory and in high-income regions. It is much more difficult to achieve macro-elimination throughout the population especially in low-income areas with underdeveloped infrastructures, a high prevalence of HCV and limited economic resources. To achieve the WHO goals by 2030, awareness of HCV must increase and the cascade of care must be improved and implemented. Diagnostic procedures and treatment should be affordable and universally available. At the end of 2017 fewer than 15 countries were on track to reach these goals by 2030.