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Costa-da-Silva AL, Dye-Braumuller KC, Wagner-Coello HU, Li H, Johnson-Carson D, Gunter SM, Nolan MS, DeGennaro M. Landscape and meteorological variables associated with Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito infestation in two southeastern USA coastal cities. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2024.06.06.597792. [PMID: 38895389 PMCID: PMC11185711 DOI: 10.1101/2024.06.06.597792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/21/2024]
Abstract
Aedes transmitted arboviral human cases are increasing worldwide and spreading to new areas of the United States of America (USA). These diseases continue to re-emerge likely due to changes in vector ecology, urbanization, human migration, and larger range of climatic suitability. Recent shifts in landscape and weather variables are predicted to impact the habitat patterns of urban mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Miami (FL) is in the tropical zone and an established hotspot for arboviruses, while Charleston (SC) is in the humid subtropical zone and newly vulnerable. Although these coastal cities have distinct climates, both have hot summers. To understand mosquito infestation in both cities and potentiate our surveillance effort, we performed egg collections in the warmest season. We applied remote sensing with land-use cover and weather variation to identify mosquito infestation patterns. Our study found predominant occurrence of Ae. aegypti and, to a lesser extent, Ae. albopictus in both cities. We detected statistically significant positive and negative associations between entomological indicators and most weather variables in combined data from both cities. For all entomological indices, weekly wind speed and relative humidity were significantly positively associated, while precipitation and maximum temperature were significantly negatively associated. Aedes egg abundance was significantly positively associated with open land in Charleston but was negatively associated with vegetation cover in combined data. There is a clear need for further observational studies to determine the impact of climate change on Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus infestation in the Southeastern region of the USA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andre Luis Costa-da-Silva
- Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Biomolecular Sciences Institute, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
| | - Kyndall C Dye-Braumuller
- Institute for Infectious Disease Translational Research, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
| | - Helen Urpi Wagner-Coello
- Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Biomolecular Sciences Institute, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
| | - Huixuan Li
- Institute for Infectious Disease Translational Research, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
| | - Danielle Johnson-Carson
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
| | - Sarah M Gunter
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital, Houston, TX 77030
| | - Melissa S Nolan
- Institute for Infectious Disease Translational Research, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208
| | - Matthew DeGennaro
- Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Biomolecular Sciences Institute, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199
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Yang H, Nguyen TN, Chuang TW. An Integrative Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach to Analyze Fine-Scale Land-Cover and Land-Use Factors Associated with Spatial Distributions of Place of Residence of Reported Dengue Cases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040238. [PMID: 37104363 PMCID: PMC10142856 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2023] [Revised: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/18/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue fever is a prevalent mosquito-borne disease that burdens communities in subtropical and tropical regions. Dengue transmission is ecologically complex; several environmental conditions are critical for the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue. Interannual variability and spatial distribution of dengue transmission are well-studied; however, the effects of land cover and use are yet to be investigated. Therefore, we applied an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) approach to integrate the EXtreme Gradient Boosting and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) methods to evaluate spatial patterns of the residences of reported dengue cases based on various fine-scale land-cover land-use types, Shannon's diversity index, and household density in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, between 2014 and 2015. We found that the proportions of general roads and residential areas play essential roles in dengue case residences with nonlinear patterns. Agriculture-related features were negatively associated with dengue incidence. Additionally, Shannon's diversity index showed a U-shaped relationship with dengue infection, and SHAP dependence plots showed different relationships between various land-use types and dengue incidence. Finally, landscape-based prediction maps were generated from the best-fit model and highlighted high-risk zones within the metropolitan region. The explainable AI approach delineated precise associations between spatial patterns of the residences of dengue cases and diverse land-use characteristics. This information is beneficial for resource allocation and control strategy modification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hsiu Yang
- Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 110, Taiwan
| | - Thi-Nhung Nguyen
- International Ph.D. Program in Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 110, Taiwan
| | - Ting-Wu Chuang
- Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 110, Taiwan
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Martín ME, Alonso AC, Faraone J, Stein M, Estallo EL. Satellite observation to assess dengue risk due to Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a subtropical city of Argentina. MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY 2023; 37:27-36. [PMID: 36070184 DOI: 10.1111/mve.12604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Earth observation environmental features measured through remote sensing and models of vector mosquitoes species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus provide an advancement with regards to dengue risk in urban environments of subtropical areas of Argentina. The authors aim to estimate the effect of landscape coverage and spectral indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], Normalized Difference Water Index [NDWI] and Normalized Difference Built-up Index [NDBI]) on the larvae abundance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Eldorado, Misiones, Argentina using remote satellite sensors. Larvae of these species were collected monthly (June 2016 to April 2018), in four environments: tire repair shops, cemeteries, dwellings and an urban natural park. The proportion of landscape coverage (water, urban areas, bare soil, low vegetation and high vegetation) was determined from the supervised classification of Sentinel-2 images and spectral indices, calculated. The authors developed spatial models of both vector species by generalized linear mixed models. The model's results showed that Ae. aegypti larvae abundance was better modelled by NDVI minimum values, NDBI maximum values and the interaction between them. For Ae. albopictus proportion of bare soil, low vegetation and the interaction between both variables explained better the abundance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mía Elisa Martín
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas (IIByT), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, CONICET, Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba (CIEC), FCEFyN, Córdoba, Argentina
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina (CONICET), Argentina
| | - Ana Carolina Alonso
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina (CONICET), Argentina
- Instituto de Medicina Regional, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Resistencia, Chaco, Argentina
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional (INENCO-CONICET), Universidad Nacional de Salta, Salta, Argentina
| | - Janinna Faraone
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina (CONICET), Argentina
- Instituto de Medicina Regional, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Resistencia, Chaco, Argentina
| | - Marina Stein
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina (CONICET), Argentina
- Instituto de Medicina Regional, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Resistencia, Chaco, Argentina
| | - Elizabet Lilia Estallo
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas (IIByT), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, CONICET, Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba (CIEC), FCEFyN, Córdoba, Argentina
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina (CONICET), Argentina
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Pascoe L, Clemen T, Bradshaw K, Nyambo D. Review of Importance of Weather and Environmental Variables in Agent-Based Arbovirus Models. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:15578. [PMID: 36497652 PMCID: PMC9740748 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192315578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The study sought to review the works of literature on agent-based modeling and the influence of climatic and environmental factors on disease outbreak, transmission, and surveillance. Thus, drawing the influence of environmental variables such as vegetation index, households, mosquito habitats, breeding sites, and climatic variables including precipitation or rainfall, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity on dengue disease modeling using the agent-based model in an African context and globally was the aim of the study. A search strategy was developed and used to search for relevant articles from four databases, namely, PubMed, Scopus, Research4Life, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were developed, and 20 articles met the criteria and have been included in the review. From the reviewed works of literature, the study observed that climatic and environmental factors may influence the arbovirus disease outbreak, transmission, and surveillance. Thus, there is a call for further research on the area. To benefit from arbovirus modeling, it is crucial to consider the influence of climatic and environmental factors, especially in Africa, where there are limited studies exploring this phenomenon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luba Pascoe
- Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O Box 447, Tanzania
| | - Thomas Clemen
- Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O Box 447, Tanzania
- Department of Computer Science, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Berliner Tor 7, 20099 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Karen Bradshaw
- Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O Box 447, Tanzania
- Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, Grahamstown 6139, South Africa
| | - Devotha Nyambo
- Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O Box 447, Tanzania
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Santos JM, Capinha C, Rocha J, Sousa CA. The current and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) on Madeira Island. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010715. [PMID: 36094951 PMCID: PMC9499243 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Revised: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector for several diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. This species was first identified on Madeira Island in 2005, and between 2012 and 2013 was responsible for an outbreak of dengue that affected several thousand people. However, the potential distribution of the species on the island remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the suitability of current and future climatic conditions to the species on the island and complement this assessment with estimates of the suitability of land use and human settlement conditions. We used four modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized additive models, generalized linear models and random forest) and data on the distribution of the species worldwide and across the island. For both climatic and non-climatic factors, suitability estimates predicted the current distribution of the species with good accuracy (mean area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = 0.88 ±0.06, mean true skill statistic = 0.72 ±0.1). Minimum temperature of coldest month was the most influential climatic predictor, while human population density, residential housing density and public spaces were the most influential predictors describing land use and human settlement conditions. Suitable areas under current climates are predicted to occur mainly in the warmer and densely inhabited coastal areas of the southern part of the island, where the species is already established. By mid-century (2041–2060), the extent of climatically suitable areas is expected to increase, mainly towards higher altitudes and in the eastern part of the island. Our work shows that ongoing efforts to monitor and prevent the spread of Ae. aegypti on Madeira Island will have to increasingly consider the effects of climate change. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an invasive species on Madeira Island and recently responsible for a dengue outbreak that affected more than 2000 people. To help control the activity of this mosquito, the local health authorities have an entomological surveillance program in place throughout the island. However, the full extent of the areas that can be colonized by this species remains unknown. We estimate the current and future potential distribution of Ae. aegypti on Madeira Island accounting for climatic, land use and human settlement conditions. Our results suggest that suitable conditions are predominantly distributed along the southern coast of the island. However, as climate change progresses, climatically suitable areas are expected to increase, particularly at mid-altitudes and in eastern part of the island. Minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most influential predictor variable in climatic suitability models, while human population density, housing density and public spaces were the most influential in models of land use and human settlement suitability. Our work provides valuable insight on the potential distribution of Ae. aegypti on Madeira Island, which can be used to inform ongoing and future monitoring and prevention initiatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Maurício Santos
- Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
- Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon, Portugal
- * E-mail: (JMS); (CC)
| | - César Capinha
- Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
- Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon, Portugal
- * E-mail: (JMS); (CC)
| | - Jorge Rocha
- Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Carla Alexandra Sousa
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
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Sánchez-Díaz E, Gleiser RM, Lopez LR, Guzman C, Contigiani MS, Spinsanti L, Gardenal CN, Gorla DE. Oviposition dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Central Argentina. MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY 2022; 36:43-55. [PMID: 34618943 DOI: 10.1111/mve.12550] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Revised: 05/26/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the vector of multiple arboviruses. To evaluate the association between environmental factors and the oviposition activity of Ae. aegypti in Argentina, data on the presence and abundance of eggs were collected using ovitraps, between September of 2018 and May of 2019, in the cities of Villa María, Río Cuarto and Salsipuedes (Córdoba province, Argentina). We analysed the relationships between oviposition and five environmental factors: Temperature, precipitation, vegetation cover, human population density and distance to sites with a potential high density of larval habitats, like cemeteries and trash dumps. Environmental factors' data were collected using satellite image products. The oviposition activity was randomly distributed in three cities. Using generalized linear mixed models, we show that the house where each ovitrap was placed was a source of variability in oviposition, suggesting the relevance of microsite factors and the importance of domestic control actions. Ae. aegypti oviposition was positively correlated with night-time temperature of the previous 3 weeks, and in a context-dependent manner, it was positively correlated with human population density, vegetation cover and precipitation. The consistency and magnitude of these relationships varied between cities, indicating that oviposition is related to a complex system of environmental variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Sánchez-Díaz
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba - CONICET, IMBIV, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - R M Gleiser
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba - CONICET, IMBIV, Córdoba, Argentina
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Centro de Relevamiento y Evaluación de Recursos Agrícolas y Naturales (CREAN), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba - CONICET, IMBIV, Córdoba, Argentina
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Departamento de Diversidad Biológica y Ecología, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - L R Lopez
- Ministerio de Salud Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - C Guzman
- Ministerio de Salud Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - M S Contigiani
- Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Instituto de Virología "Dr. José María Vanella" (In.Vi.V.), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - L Spinsanti
- Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Instituto de Virología "Dr. José María Vanella" (In.Vi.V.), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - C N Gardenal
- Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA), Laboratorio de Eco-Epidemiología Espacial de Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba - CONICET, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - D E Gorla
- Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA), Laboratorio de Eco-Epidemiología Espacial de Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba - CONICET, Córdoba, Argentina
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Andreo V, Porcasi X, Guzman C, Lopez L, Scavuzzo CM. Spatial Distribution of Aedes aegypti Oviposition Temporal Patterns and Their Relationship with Environment and Dengue Incidence. INSECTS 2021; 12:insects12100919. [PMID: 34680688 PMCID: PMC8537924 DOI: 10.3390/insects12100919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 09/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Aedes aegypti, the mosquito species that transmits dengue virus among others, is fully adapted to thrive in urban areas. Their activity, however, varies in time and space and this might imply different transmission risk. We hypothesize that the temporal differences in mosquito activity are determined by local environmental conditions. Hence, we explore the existence of groups of temporal patterns in weekly time series of ovitraps records and we associate those patterns to environmental variables derived from remote sensing data and also to dengue incidence. We found three groups of temporal patterns that showed association with land cover diversity, heterogeneity and variability in vegetation and humidity indices estimated over 50-m radius buffer areas surrounding ovitraps. Dengue incidence on a neighborhood basis showed a weak but positive association with the percentage of pixels belonging to one of the patterns detected. The understanding of the spatial distribution of temporal patterns and their environmental determinants might then become relevant to guide the allocation of prevention and monitoring interventions. Abstract Aedes aegypti, the mosquito species transmitting dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever viruses, is fully adapted to thrive in urban areas. The temporal activity of this mosquito, however, varies within urban areas which might imply different transmission risk. In this work, we hypothesize that temporal differences in mosquito activity patterns are determined by local environmental conditions. Hence, we explore the existence of groups of temporal patterns in weekly time series of Ae. aegypti ovitraps records (2017–2019) by means of time series clustering. Next, with the aim of predicting risk in places with no mosquito field data, we use machine learning classification tools to assess the association of temporal patterns with environmental variables derived from satellite imagery and predict temporal patterns over the city area to finally test the relationship with dengue incidence. We found three groups of temporal patterns that showed association with land cover diversity, variability in vegetation and humidity and, heterogeneity measured by texture indices estimated over buffer areas surrounding ovitraps. Dengue incidence on a neighborhood basis showed a weak but positive association with the percentage of pixels belonging to only one of the temporal patterns detected. The understanding of the spatial distribution of temporal patterns and their environmental determinants might then become highly relevant to guide the allocation of prevention and potential interventions. Further investigation is still needed though to incorporate other determinants not considered here.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verónica Andreo
- Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales “Mario Gulich”, Falda del Cañete, Córdoba 5187, Argentina; (X.P.); (C.M.S.)
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires C1425FQB, Argentina
- Correspondence:
| | - Ximena Porcasi
- Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales “Mario Gulich”, Falda del Cañete, Córdoba 5187, Argentina; (X.P.); (C.M.S.)
| | - Claudio Guzman
- Programa de Zoonosis, Área de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud, Córdoba 5000, Argentina; (C.G.); (L.L.)
| | - Laura Lopez
- Programa de Zoonosis, Área de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud, Córdoba 5000, Argentina; (C.G.); (L.L.)
| | - Carlos M. Scavuzzo
- Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales “Mario Gulich”, Falda del Cañete, Córdoba 5187, Argentina; (X.P.); (C.M.S.)
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