Temperature and consumer type dependencies of energy flows in natural communities

Untangling the complex food webs of tropical rainforest streams

Food webs depict the tangled web of trophic interactions associated with the functioning of an ecosystem. Understanding the mechanisms providing stability to these food webs is therefore vital for conservation efforts and the management of natural systems. Here, we first characterised a tropical stream meta-food web and five individual food webs using a Bayesian Hierarchical approach unifying three sources of information (gut content analysis, literature compilation and stable isotope data). With data on population-level biomass and individually measured body mass, we applied a bioenergetic model and assessed food web stability using a Lotka-Volterra system of equations. We then assessed the resilience of the system to individual species extinctions using simulations and investigated the network patterns associated with systems with higher stability. The model resulted in a stable meta-food web with 307 links among the 61 components. At the regional scale, 70% of the total energy flow occurred through a set of 10 taxa with large variation in body masses. The remaining 30% of total energy flow relied on 48 different taxa, supporting a significant dependency on a diverse community. The meta-food web was stable against individual species extinctions, with a higher resilience in food webs harbouring omnivorous fish species able to connect multiple food web compartments via weak, non-specialised interactions. Moreover, these fish species contributed largely to the spatial variation among individual food webs, suggesting that these species could operate as mobile predators connecting different streams and stabilising variability at the regional scale. Our results outline two key mechanisms of food web stability operating in tropical streams: (i) the diversity of species and body masses buffering against random and size-dependent disturbances and (ii) high regional diversity and weak omnivorous interactions of predators buffering against local stochastic variation in species composition. These mechanisms rely on high local and regional biodiversity in tropical streams, which is known to be strongly affected by human impacts. Therefore, an urgent challenge is to understand how the ongoing systematic loss of diversity jeopardises the stability of stream food webs in human-impacted landscapes.

The environment to the rescue: can physics help predict predator-prey interactions?

Understanding the factors that determine the occurrence and strength of ecological interactions under specific abiotic and biotic conditions is fundamental since many aspects of ecological community stability and ecosystem functioning depend on patterns of interactions among species. Current approaches to mapping food webs are mostly based on traits, expert knowledge, experiments, and/or statistical inference. However, they do not offer clear mechanisms explaining how trophic interactions are affected by the interplay between organism characteristics and aspects of the physical environment, such as temperature, light intensity or viscosity. Hence, they cannot yet predict accurately how local food webs will respond to anthropogenic pressures, notably to climate change and species invasions. Herein, we propose a framework that synthesises recent developments in food-web theory, integrating body size and metabolism with the physical properties of ecosystems. We advocate for combination of the movement paradigm with a modular definition of the predation sequence, because movement is central to predator-prey interactions, and a generic, modular model is needed to describe all the possible variation in predator-prey interactions. Pending sufficient empirical and theoretical knowledge, our framework will help predict the food-web impacts of well-studied physical factors, such as temperature and oxygen availability, as well as less commonly considered variables such as wind, turbidity or electrical conductivity. An improved predictive capability will facilitate a better understanding of ecosystem responses to a changing world.

Flexible foraging behaviour increases predator vulnerability to climate change

Higher temperatures are expected to reduce species coexistence by increasing energetic demands. However, flexible foraging behaviour could balance this effect by allowing predators to target specific prey species to maximize their energy intake, according to principles of optimal foraging theory. Here we test these assumptions using a large dataset comprising 2,487 stomach contents from six fish species with different feeding strategies, sampled across environments with varying prey availability over 12 years in Kiel Bay (Baltic Sea). Our results show that foraging shifts from trait- to density-dependent prey selectivity in warmer and more productive environments. This behavioural change leads to lower consumption efficiency at higher temperature as fish select more abundant but less energetically rewarding prey, thereby undermining species persistence and biodiversity. By integrating this behaviour into dynamic food web models, our study reveals that flexible foraging leads to lower species coexistence and biodiversity in communities under global warming.

Treated and highly diluted, but wastewater still impacts diversity and energy fluxes of freshwater food webs

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have greatly improved water quality globally. However, treated effluents still contain a complex cocktail of pollutants whose environmental effects might go unnoticed, masked by additional stressors in the receiving waters or by spatiotemporal variability. We conducted a BACI (Before-After/Control-Impact) ecosystem manipulation experiment, where we diverted part of the effluent of a large tertiary WWTP into a small, unpolluted stream to assess the effects of a well-treated and highly diluted effluent on riverine diversity and food web dynamics. We sampled basal food resources, benthic invertebrates and fish to search for changes on the structure and energy transfer of the food web with the effluent. Although effluent toxicity was low, it reduced diversity, increased primary production and herbivory, and reduced energy fluxes associated to terrestrial inputs. Altogether, the effluent decreased total energy fluxes in stream food webs, showing that treated wastewater can lead to important ecosystem-level changes, affecting the structure and functioning of stream communities even at high dilution rates. The present study shows that current procedures to treat wastewater can still affect freshwater ecosystems and highlights the need for further efforts to treat polluted waters to conserve aquatic food webs.

Water column contributions to coral reef productivity: overcoming challenges of context dependence

Coral reefs are declining at an unprecedented rate. Effective management and conservation initiatives necessitate improved understanding of the drivers of production because the high rates found in these ecosystems are the foundation of the many services they provide. The water column is the nexus of coral reef ecosystem dynamics, and functions as the interface through which essentially all energy and nutrients are transferred to fuel both new and recycled production. Substantial research has described many aspects of water column dynamics, often focusing on specific components because water column dynamics are highly spatially and temporally context dependent. Although necessary, a cost of this approach is that these dynamics are often not well linked to the broader ecosystem or across systems. To help overcome the challenge of context dependence, we provide a comprehensive review of this literature, and synthesise it through the perspective of ecosystem ecology. Specifically, we provide a framework to organise the drivers of temporal and spatial variation in production dynamics, structured around five primary state factors. These state factors are used to deconstruct the environmental contexts in which three water column sub-food webs mediate 'new' and 'recycled' production. We then highlight critical pathways by which global change drivers are altering coral reefs via the water column. We end by discussing four key knowledge gaps hindering understanding of the role of the water column for mediating coral reef production, and how overcoming these could improve conservation and management strategies. Throughout, we identify areas of extensive research and those where studies remain lacking and provide a database of 84 published studies. Improved integration of water column dynamics into models of coral reef ecosystem function is imperative to achieve the understanding of ecosystem production necessary to develop effective conservation and management strategies needed to stem global coral loss.

Invasive Spartina alterniflora habitat forms high energy fluxes but low food web stability compared to adjacent native vegetated habitats

Invasive Spartina spp. mostly colonizes a bare tidal flat and then establishes a new vegetated habitat, where it promotes the productivity of local ecosystems. However, it was unclear whether the invasive habitat could well exhibit ecosystem functioning, e.g. how its high productivity propagates throughout the food web and whether it thereby develops a high food web stability relative to native vegetated habitats. By developing quantitative food webs for a long-established invasive Spartina alterniflora habitat and adjacent native salt marsh (Suaeda salsa) and seagrass (Zostera japonica) habitats in China's Yellow River Delta, we investigated the distributions of energy fluxes, assessed the stability of food webs, and investigated the net trophic effects between trophic groups by combining all direct and indirect trophic interactions. Results showed that the total energy flux in the invasive S. alterniflora habitat was comparable to that in the Z. japonica habitat, whereas 4.5 times higher than that in the S. salsa habitat. While, the invasive habitat had the lowest trophic transfer efficiencies. Food web stability in the invasive habitat was about 3 and 40 times lower than that in the S. salsa and Z. japonica habitats, respectively. Additionally, there were strong net effects caused by intermediate invertebrate species in the invasive habitat rather than by fish species in both native habitats. This study revealed the contradiction between the promotion of energy fluxes and the decrease of food web stability resulting from the invasion of S. alterniflora, which provides new insights into the community-based management of plant invasions.

Life-history responses to temperature and seasonality mediate ectotherm consumer-resource dynamics under climate warming

Climate warming is altering life cycles of ectotherms by advancing phenology and decreasing generation times. Theoretical models provide powerful tools to investigate these effects of climate warming on consumer-resource population dynamics. Yet, existing theory primarily considers organisms with simplified life histories in constant temperature environments, making it difficult to predict how warming will affect organisms with complex life cycles in seasonal environments. We develop a size-structured consumer-resource model with seasonal temperature dependence, parameterized for a freshwater insect consuming zooplankton. We simulate how climate warming in a seasonal environment could alter a key life-history trait of the consumer, number of generations per year, mediating responses of consumer-resource population sizes and consumer persistence. We find that, with warming, consumer population sizes increase through multiple mechanisms. First, warming decreases generation times by increasing rates of resource ingestion and growth and/or lengthening the growing season. Second, these life-history changes shorten the juvenile stage, increasing the number of emerging adults and population-level reproduction. Unstructured models with similar assumptions found that warming destabilized consumer-resource dynamics. By contrast, our size-structured model predicts stability and consumer persistence. Our study suggests that, in seasonal environments experiencing climate warming, life-history changes that lead to shorter generation times could delay population extinctions.

Warming alters the metabolic rates and life-history parameters of Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (Cladocera)

Temperature rise has effects on the metabolic process of organisms, population structure, and ecosystem functioning. Here, we tested the effects of warming on the metabolic rates and life-history parameters of the widespread cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii. Two scenarios of global warming were established, an increase of 2 °C and an increase of 4 °C; the control temperature was 22°C. Our results showed that warming altered C. silvestrii metabolic rates, by increasing the rates of assimilation and secondary production, and decreasing the rates of filtration and ingestion. Warming also increased C. silvestrii fecundity and the body size of neonates and juveniles, and decreased the embryonic and post-embryonic time of development. C. silvestrii might be an important food resource at intermediary temperature as it had higher assimilation rates, even filtering fewer algae. At the highest temperature, we observed a substantial decrease in assimilation and secondary production, which could be a sign of stress starting. The increase in temperature by global warming will affect the cladocerans' metabolic processes and the population survival, even a small increase (2°C) might induce drastic fluctuations in such processes and affect the carbon and energy availability inside aquatic food-webs.

Energetic mismatch induced by warming decreases leaf litter decomposition by aquatic detritivores

1. The balance of energetic losses and gains is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the persistence of populations and ecosystem processes in a rapidly changing world. Previous studies suggested that metabolic rate often increases faster with warming than resource ingestion rate, leading to an energetic mismatch at high temperature. However, little is known about the ecological consequences of this energetic mismatch for population demography and ecosystem functions. 2. Here, we combined laboratory experiments and modeling to investigate the energetic balance of a stream detritivore (Gammarus fossarum) along a temperature gradient and the consequences for detritivore populations and organic matter decomposition. 3. We experimentally measured the energetic losses (metabolic rate) and supplies (ingestion rate) of Gammarus and we modeled the impact of rising temperatures and changes in Gammarus body size induced by warming on population dynamics and benthic organic matter dynamics in freshwater systems. 4. Our experimental results indicated an energetic mismatch in a Gammarus population where losses via metabolic rate increase faster than supplies via food ingestion with warming, which translated in a decrease of energetic efficiency with temperature rising from 5 to 20 °C. Moreover, our consumer-resource model predicts a decrease in the biomass of Gammarus population with warming, associated with lower maximum abundances and steeper abundance decreases after biomass annual peaks. These changes resulted in a decrease of leaf litter decomposition rate and thus longer persistence of leaf litter standing stock over years in the simulations. In addition, Gammarus body size reductions led to shorter persistence for both leaf litter and Gammarus biomasses at low temperature and the opposite trend at high temperature, revealing that body size reduction was weakening the effect of temperature on resource and consumer persistence. 5. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how thermal effects at the level of individuals may cascade through trophic interactions and influence important ecosystem processes. Considering the balance of physiological processes is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impact of climate change on carbon stocks and ecosystem functions.

Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming

Organisms have the capacity to alter their physiological response to warming through acclimation or adaptation, but the consequence of this metabolic plasticity for energy flow through food webs is currently unknown, and a generalisable framework does not exist for modelling its ecosystem-level effects. Here, using temperature-controlled experiments on stream invertebrates from a natural thermal gradient, we show that the ability of organisms to raise their metabolic rate following chronic exposure to warming decreases with increasing body size. Chronic exposure to higher temperatures also increases the acute thermal sensitivity of whole-organismal metabolic rate, independent of body size. A mathematical model parameterised with these findings shows that metabolic plasticity could account for 60% higher ecosystem energy flux with just +2 °C of warming than a traditional model based on ecological metabolic theory. This could explain why long-term warming amplifies ecosystem respiration rates through time in recent mesocosm experiments, and highlights the need to embed metabolic plasticity in predictive models of global warming impacts on ecosystems.

Organisms can alter their physiological response to warming. Here, the authors show that the ability to raise metabolic rate following exposure to warming is inverse to body size and provide a mathematical model which estimates that metabolic plasticity could amplify energy flux through ecosystems in response to warming.

Multifunctionality of belowground food webs: resource, size and spatial energy channels

The belowground compartment of terrestrial ecosystems drives nutrient cycling, the decomposition and stabilisation of organic matter, and supports aboveground life. Belowground consumers create complex food webs that regulate functioning, ensure stability and support biodiversity both below and above ground. However, existing soil food-web reconstructions do not match recently accumulated empirical evidence and there is no comprehensive reproducible approach that accounts for the complex resource, size and spatial structure of food webs in soil. Here I build on generic food-web organisation principles and use multifunctional classification of soil protists, invertebrates and vertebrates, to reconstruct a 'multichannel' food web across size classes of soil-associated consumers. I infer weighted trophic interactions among trophic guilds using feeding preferences and prey protection traits (evolutionarily inherited traits), size and spatial distributions (niche overlaps), and biomass-dependent feeding. I then use food-web reconstruction, together with assimilation efficiencies, to calculate energy fluxes assuming a steady-state energetic system. Based on energy fluxes, I propose a number of indicators, related to stability, biodiversity and multiple ecosystem-level functions such as herbivory, top-down control, translocation and transformation of organic matter. I illustrate this approach with an empirical example, comparing it with traditional resource-focused soil food-web reconstruction. The multichannel reconstruction can be used to assess 'trophic multifunctionality' (analogous to ecosystem multifunctionality), i.e. simultaneous support of multiple trophic functions by the food web, and compare it across communities and ecosystems spanning beyond the soil. With further empirical validation of the proposed functional indicators, this multichannel reconstruction approach could provide an effective tool for understanding animal diversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in soil. This tool hopefully will inspire more researchers to describe soil communities and belowground-aboveground interactions comprehensively. Such studies will provide informative indicators for including consumers as active agents in biogeochemical models, not only locally but also on regional and global scales.

The Combined Effects of Warming and Body Size on the Stability of Predator-Prey Interactions

Environmental temperature and body size are two prominent drivers of predation. Despite the ample evidence of their independent effects, the combined impact of temperature and predator-prey body size ratio on the strength and stability of trophic interactions is not fully understood. We experimentally tested how water temperature alters the functional response and population stability of dragonfly nymphs (Cordulegaster boltonii) feeding on freshwater amphipods (Gammarus pulex) across a gradient of their body size ratios. Attack coefficients were highest for small predators feeding on small prey at low temperatures, but shifted toward the largest predators feeding on larger prey in warmer environments. Handling time appeared to decrease with increasing predator and prey body size in the cold environment, but increase at higher temperatures. These findings indicate interactive effects of temperature and body size on functional responses. There was also a negative effect of warming on the stability of predator and prey populations, but this was counteracted by a larger predator-prey body size ratio at higher temperatures. Here, a greater Hill exponent reduced feeding at low prey densities when predators were much larger than their prey, enhancing the persistence of both predator and prey populations in the warmer environment. These experimental findings provide new mechanistic insights into the destabilizing effect of warming on trophic interactions and the key role of predator-prey body size ratios in mitigating these effects.

The hidden role of multi-trophic interactions in driving diversity-productivity relationships

Resource-use complementarity of producer species is often invoked to explain the generally positive diversity-productivity relationships. Additionally, multi-trophic interactions that link processes across trophic levels have received increasing attention as a possible key driver. Given that both are integral to natural ecosystems, their interactive effect should be evident but has remained hidden. We address this issue by analysing diversity-productivity relationships in a simulation experiment of producer communities nested within complex food-webs, manipulating resource-use complementarity and multi-trophic animal richness. We show that these two mechanisms interactively create diverse communities of complementary producer species. This shapes diversity-productivity relationships such that their joint contribution generally exceeds their individual effects. Specifically, multi-trophic interactions in animal-rich ecosystems facilitate producer coexistence by preventing competitive exclusion despite overlaps in resource-use, which increases the realised complementarity. The interdependence of food-webs and producer complementarity in creating biodiversity-productivity relationships highlights the importance to adopt a multi-trophic perspective on biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships.

Landscape heterogeneity buffers biodiversity of simulated meta-food-webs under global change through rescue and drainage effects

Habitat fragmentation and eutrophication have strong impacts on biodiversity. Metacommunity research demonstrated that reduction in landscape connectivity may cause biodiversity loss in fragmented landscapes. Food-web research addressed how eutrophication can cause local biodiversity declines. However, there is very limited understanding of their cumulative impacts as they could amplify or cancel each other. Our simulations of meta-food-webs show that dispersal and trophic processes interact through two complementary mechanisms. First, the 'rescue effect' maintains local biodiversity by rapid recolonization after a local crash in population densities. Second, the 'drainage effect' stabilizes biodiversity by preventing overshooting of population densities on eutrophic patches. In complex food webs on large spatial networks of habitat patches, these effects yield systematically higher biodiversity in heterogeneous than in homogeneous landscapes. Our meta-food-web approach reveals a strong interaction between habitat fragmentation and eutrophication and provides a mechanistic explanation of how landscape heterogeneity promotes biodiversity.

Thermal acclimation increases the stability of a predator-prey interaction in warmer environments

Global warming over the next century is likely to alter the energy demands of consumers and thus the strengths of their interactions with their resources. The subsequent cascading effects on population biomasses could have profound effects on food web stability. One key mechanism by which organisms can cope with a changing environment is phenotypic plasticity, such as acclimation to warmer conditions through reversible changes in their physiology. Here, we measured metabolic rates and functional responses in laboratory experiments for a widespread predator-prey pair of freshwater invertebrates, sampled from across a natural stream temperature gradient in Iceland (4-18℃). This enabled us to parameterize a Rosenzweig-MacArthur population dynamical model to study the effect of thermal acclimation on the persistence of the predator-prey pairs in response to warming. Acclimation to higher temperatures either had neutral effects or reduced the thermal sensitivity of both metabolic and feeding rates for the predator, increasing its energetic efficiency. This resulted in greater stability of population dynamics, as acclimation to higher temperatures increased the biomass of both predator and prey populations with warming. These findings indicate that phenotypic plasticity can act as a buffer against the impacts of environmental warming. As a consequence, predator-prey interactions between ectotherms may be less sensitive to future warming than previously expected, but this requires further investigation across a broader range of interacting species.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.

Asymmetric foraging lowers the trophic level and omnivory in natural food webs

Food webs capture the trophic relationships and energy fluxes between species, which has fundamental impacts on ecosystem functioning and stability. Within a food web, the energy flux distribution between a predator and its prey species is shaped by food quantity-quality trade-offs and the contiguity of foraging. But the distribution of energy fluxes among prey species as well as its drivers and implications remain unclear. Here we used 157 aquatic food webs, which contain explicit energy flux information, to examine whether a predator's foraging is asymmetric and biased towards lower or higher trophic levels, and how these patterns may change with trophic level. We also evaluate how traditional topology-based approaches may over- or under-estimate a predator's trophic level and omnivory by ignoring the asymmetric foraging patterns. Our results demonstrated the prevalence of asymmetric foraging in natural aquatic food webs. Although predators prefer prey at higher trophic levels with potentially higher food quality, they obtain their energy mostly from lower trophic levels with a higher food quantity. Both tendencies, that is, stronger feeding preference for prey at higher trophic levels and stronger energetic reliance on prey at lower trophic levels are alleviated for predators at higher trophic levels. The asymmetric foraging lowers trophic levels and omnivory at both species and food web levels, compared to estimates from traditional topology-based approaches. Such overestimations by topology-based approaches are most pronounced for predators at lower trophic levels and communities with higher number of trophic species. Our study highlights the importance of energy flux information in understanding the foraging behaviour of predators as well as the structural complexity of natural food webs. The increasing availability of flux-based food web data will thus provide new opportunities to reconcile food web structure, functioning and stability.

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

Temperature has numerous effects on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. Yet, there is no general trend or consensus on the magnitude and directions of these effects. To fill this gap, we propose a mechanistic framework based on key biological rates that predicts how temperature influences biomass distribution and trophic control in food webs. We show that these predictions arise from thermal mismatches between biological rates and across trophic levels. We couple our theory with experimental data for a wide range of species and find that warming should lead to top-heavier terrestrial food chains and stronger top-down control in aquatic environments. We then derive predictions for the effects of temperature on herbivory and validate them with data on stream grazers. Our study provides a mechanistic explanation of thermal effects on consumer-resource systems which is crucial to better understand the biogeography and the consequences of global warming on trophic dynamics.

Biodiversity enhances the multitrophic control of arthropod herbivory

Arthropod herbivores cause substantial economic costs that drive an increasing need to develop environmentally sustainable approaches to herbivore control. Increasing plant diversity is expected to limit herbivory by altering plant-herbivore and predator-herbivore interactions, but the simultaneous influence of these interactions on herbivore impacts remains unexplored. We compiled 487 arthropod food webs in two long-running grassland biodiversity experiments in Europe and North America to investigate whether and how increasing plant diversity can reduce the impacts of herbivores on plants. We show that plants lose just under half as much energy to arthropod herbivores when in high-diversity mixtures versus monocultures and reveal that plant diversity decreases effects of herbivores on plants by simultaneously benefiting predators and reducing average herbivore food quality. These findings demonstrate that conserving plant diversity is crucial for maintaining interactions in food webs that provide natural control of herbivore pests.

Foraging strategy mediates ectotherm predator-prey responses to climate warming

Climate warming and species traits interact to influence predator performance, including individual feeding and growth rates. However, the effects of an important trait-predator foraging strategy-are largely unknown. We investigated the interactions between predator foraging strategy and temperature on two ectotherm predators: an active predator, the backswimmer Notonecta undulata, and a sit-and-wait predator, the damselfly Enallagma annexum. In a series of predator-prey experiments across a temperature gradient, we measured predator feeding rates on an active prey species, zooplankton Daphnia pulex, predator growth rates, and mechanisms that influence predator feeding: body speed of predators and prey (here measured as swimming speed), prey encounter rates, capture success, attack rates, and handling time. Overall, warming led to increased feeding rates for both predators through changes to each component of the predator's functional response. We found that prey swimming speed strongly increased with temperature. The active predator's swimming speed also increased with temperature, and together, the increase in predator and prey swimming speed resulted in twofold higher prey encounter rates for the active predator at warmer temperatures. By contrast, prey encounter rates of the sit-and-wait predator increased fourfold with rising temperatures as a result of increased prey swimming speed. Concurrently, increased prey swimming speed was associated with a decline in the active predator's capture success at high temperatures, whereas the sit-and-wait predator's capture success slightly increased with temperature. We provide some of the first evidence that foraging traits mediate the indirect effects of warming on predator performance. Understanding how traits influence species' responses to warming could clarify how climate change will affect entire functional groups of species.

Trait-Based Assessments of Climate-Change Impacts on Interacting Species

Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.

Consistent temperature dependence of functional response parameters and their use in predicting population abundance

Global warming is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of populations: increased metabolic demands should strengthen pairwise species interactions, which could destabilize food webs at the higher organizational levels. Quantifying the temperature dependence of consumer-resource interactions is thus essential for predicting ecological responses to warming. We explored feeding interactions between different predator-prey pairs in controlled-temperature chambers and in a system of naturally heated streams. We found consistent temperature dependence of attack rates across experimental settings, though the magnitude and activation energy of attack rate were specific to each predator, which varied in mobility and foraging mode. We used these parameters along with metabolic rate measurements to estimate energetic efficiency and population abundance with warming. Energetic efficiency accurately estimated field abundance of a mobile predator that struggled to meet its metabolic demands, but was a poor predictor for a sedentary predator that operated well below its energetic limits. Temperature effects on population abundance may thus be strongly dependent on whether organisms are regulated by their own energy intake or interspecific interactions. Given the widespread use of functional response parameters in ecological modelling, reconciling outcomes from laboratory and field studies increases the confidence and precision with which we can predict warming impacts on natural systems.

Predation risk influences food-web structure by constraining species diet choice

The foraging behaviour of species determines their diet and, therefore, also emergent food-web structure. Optimal foraging theory (OFT) has previously been applied to understand the emergence of food-web structure through a consumer-centric consideration of diet choice. However, the resource-centric viewpoint, where species adjust their behaviour to reduce the risk of predation, has not been considered. We develop a mechanistic model that merges metabolic theory with OFT to incorporate the effect of predation risk on diet choice to assemble food webs. This 'predation-risk-compromise' (PR) model better captures the nestedness and modularity of empirical food webs relative to the classical optimal foraging model. Specifically, compared with optimal foraging alone, risk-mitigated foraging leads to more-nested but less-modular webs by broadening the diet of consumers at intermediate trophic levels. Thus, predation risk significantly affects food-web structure by constraining species' ability to forage optimally, and needs to be considered in future work.

Impacts of non-native fishes under a seasonal temperature gradient are forecasted using functional responses and abundances

Developing predictive methods to forecast the impacts of existing and emerging invasive species is of critical importance to biodiversity conservation. However, invader impacts are context-dependent, making reliable and robust predictions challenging. In particular, it is unclear how temporal variabilities in relation to temperature regime shifts influence invader ecological impacts. In the present study, we quantify the functional responses of three coexisting freshwater fishes: the native freshwater River Goby Glossogobiuscallidus, and the non-native Mozambique Tilapia Oreochromismossambicus and Western Mosquitofish Gambusiaaffinis, under two temperature treatments using chironomid larvae as prey. This was used along with fish abundance data to determine temporal differences in ecological impacts of each fish species between seasons (i.e. at two corresponding temperatures). All three fish species exhibited potentially population-destabilizing Type II functional responses. Their maximum feeding rates were consistently higher in the warm temperature treatment, whereas attack rates tended to be reduced. Non-native Mozambique Tilapia had the highest maximum feeding rate under both temperature treatments (18 °C and 25 °C), followed by the non-native Western Mosquitofish and lastly the native River Goby, suggesting greater per capita impacts on native prey by non-native fishes. The predatory fish abundances differed significantly according to season, with native River Goby and non-native Mozambique Tilapia generally more abundant than non-native Western Mosquitofish. By multiplying functional response maximum feeding rates with abundances of each fish species across the seasonal gradient, the relative impact potential of non-native Mozambique Tilapia was consistently higher compared to that of native gobies. Western Mosquitofish impacts were less apparent, owing to their low abundances. We demonstrate how seasonal temperature fluctuations affect the relative impact capacities of introduced species and the utility of consumer functional response and the relative impact potential metric in impact forecasting.

Warming reduces the effects of enrichment on stability and functioning across levels of organisation in an aquatic microbial ecosystem

Warming and nutrient enrichment are major environmental factors shaping ecological dynamics. However, cross-scale investigation of their combined effects by linking theory and experiments is lacking. We collected data from aquatic microbial ecosystems investigating the interactive effects of warming (constant and rising temperatures) and enrichment across levels of organisation and contrasted them with community models based on metabolic theory. We found high agreement between our observations and theoretical predictions: we observed in many cases the predicted antagonistic effects of high temperature and high enrichment across levels of organisation. Temporal stability of total biomass decreased with warming but did not differ across enrichment levels. Constant and rising temperature treatments with identical mean temperature did not show qualitative differences. Overall, we conclude that model and empirical results are in broad agreement due to robustness of the effects of temperature and enrichment, that the mitigating effects of temperature on effects of enrichment may be common, and that models based on metabolic theory provide qualitatively robust predictions of the combined ecological effects of enrichment and temperature.

Considering the effects of temperature × nutrient interactions on the thermal response curve of carrying capacity

Climate warming will likely destabilize populations or drive consumers locally extinct. These predictions arise from consumer-resource models incorporating temperature-dependent parameters, and the accuracy of these predictions hinges on the validity of temperature scalings for each parameter. Among all parameters, carrying capacity (K) is the most ill-defined and the temperature scaling of this parameter has no empirically verified foundation. Most studies assume that K declines exponentially with warming, but others have assumed a positive or no relationship between K and temperature. Here, I developed a theoretical foundation for a temperature scaling of K based on physiological principles of temperature and nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. The trade-off between thermodynamics and nutrient uptake yields a unimodal thermal response curve for K, and this prediction is supported by empirical data on both phytoplankton and insects. Analyses of consumer-resource models demonstrate the primacy of K in determining predictions of coexistence and stability. Since K exerts a dominant influence on model predictions, ecologists should carefully consider the temperature scaling of K for the species and region in question to ensure accurate estimates of population stability and extinction risk.

Role of carbon allocation efficiency in the temperature dependence of autotroph growth rates

Relating the temperature dependence of photosynthetic biomass production to underlying metabolic rates in autotrophs is crucial for predicting the effects of climatic temperature fluctuations on the carbon balance of ecosystems. We present a mathematical model that links thermal performance curves (TPCs) of photosynthesis, respiration, and carbon allocation efficiency to the exponential growth rate of a population of photosynthetic autotroph cells. Using experiments with the green alga, Chlorella vulgaris, we apply the model to show that the temperature dependence of carbon allocation efficiency is key to understanding responses of growth rates to warming at both ecological and longer-term evolutionary timescales. Finally, we assemble a dataset of multiple terrestrial and aquatic autotroph species to show that the effects of temperature-dependent carbon allocation efficiency on potential growth rate TPCs are expected to be consistent across taxa. In particular, both the thermal sensitivity and the optimal temperature of growth rates are expected to change significantly due to temperature dependence of carbon allocation efficiency alone. Our study provides a foundation for understanding how the temperature dependence of carbon allocation determines how population growth rates respond to temperature.

Geographical and experimental contexts modulate the effect of warming on top-down control: a meta-analysis

Ecologists have extensively investigated the effect of warming on consumer-resource interactions, with experiments revealing that warming can strengthen, weaken or have no net effect on top-down control of resources. These experiments have inspired a body of theoretical work to explain the variation in the effect of warming on top-down control. However, there has been no quantitative attempt to reconcile theory with outcomes from empirical studies. To address the gap between theory and experiment, we performed a meta-analysis to examine the combined effect of experimental warming and top-down control on resource biomass and determined potential sources of variation across experiments. We show that differences in experimental outcomes are related to systematic variation in the geographical distribution of studies. Specifically, warming strengthened top-down control when experiments were conducted in colder regions, but had the opposite effect in warmer regions. Furthermore, we found that differences in the thermoregulation strategy of the consumer and openness of experimental arenas to dispersal can contribute to some deviation from the overall geographical pattern. These results reconcile empirical findings and support the expectation of geographical variation in the response of consumer-resource interactions to warming.