The weakest link: sensitivity to climate extremes across life stages of marine invertebrates

Intraspecific variation in thermal performance curves for early development in Fundulus heteroclitus

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a framework for understanding the effects of temperature on ectotherm performance and fitness. TPCs are often used to test hypotheses regarding local adaptation to temperature or to develop predictions for how organisms will respond to climate warming. However, for aquatic organisms such as fishes, most TPCs have been estimated for adult life stages, and little is known about the shape of TPCs or the potential for thermal adaptation at sensitive embryonic life stages. To examine how latitudinal gradients shape TPCs at early life stages in fishes, we used two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus that have been shown to exhibit latitudinal variation along the thermal cline as adults. We exposed embryos from both northern and southern populations and their reciprocal crosses to eight different temperatures (15°C, 18°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C, and 36°C) until hatch and examined the effects of developmental temperature on embryonic and larval traits (shape of TPCs, heart rate, and body size). We found that the pure southern embryos had a right-shifted TPC (higher thermal optimum (Topt) for developmental rate, survival, and embryonic growth rate) whereas pure northern embryos had a vertically shifted TPC (higher maximum performance (Pmax) for developmental rate). Differences across larval traits and cross-type were also found, such that northern crosses hatched faster and hatched at a smaller size compared to the pure southern population. Overall, these observed differences in embryonic and larval traits are consistent with patterns of both local adaptation and countergradient variation.

Whole transcriptome analysis of demersal fish eggs reveals complex responses to ocean deoxygenation and acidification

Ocean acidification and deoxygenation co-occur in marine environments, causing deterioration of marine ecosystems. However, effects of compound stresses on marine organisms and their physiological coping mechanisms are largely unknown. Here, we show how high pCO2 and low dissolved oxygen (DO) cause transcriptomic changes in eggs of a demersal fish (Sillago japonica), which are fully exposed to such stresses in natural environment. Overall gene expression was affected more strongly by low DO than by high pCO2. Enrichment analysis detected significant stress responses such as glycolytic processes in response to low DO. Increased expression of a group of glycolytic genes under low DO conditions is presumably because oxygen depletion disables the electron transfer pathway, complementing ATP production in the glycolytic pathway. Contrary to expectations, apparent mitigation of gene expression changes was dominant under combined stress conditions, and may represent an innate fish adaptive trait for severe environments.

Early post-settlement events, rather than settlement, drive recruitment and coral recovery at Moorea, French Polynesia

Understanding population dynamics is a long-standing objective of ecology, but the need for progress in this area has become urgent. For coral reefs, achieving this objective is impeded by a lack of information on settlement versus post-settlement events in determining recruitment and population size. Declines in coral abundance are often inferred to be associated with reduced densities of recruits, which could arise from mechanisms occurring at larval settlement, or throughout post-settlement stages. This study uses annual measurements from 2008 to 2021 of coral cover, the density of coral settlers (S), the density of small corals (SC), and environmental conditions, to evaluate the roles of settlement versus post-settlement events in determining rates of coral recruitment and changes in coral cover at Moorea, French Polynesia. Coral cover, S, SC, and the SC:S ratio (a proxy for post-settlement success), and environmental conditions, were used in generalized additive models (GAMs) to show that: (a) coral cover was more strongly related to SC and SC:S than S, and (b) SC:S was highest when preceded by cool seawater, low concentrations of Chlorophyll a, and low flow speeds, and S showed evidence of declining with elevated temperature. Together, these results suggest that changes in coral cover in Moorea are more strongly influenced by post-settlement events than settlement. The key to understanding coral community resilience may lie in elucidating the factors attenuating the bottleneck between settlers and small corals.

Interactive effects of ocean deoxygenation and acidification on a coastal fish Sillago japonica in early life stages

Acidification and deoxygenation are major threats to ocean environments. Despite the possibilities of their co-occurrence, little is known about their interactive effects on marine organisms. The effects of low pH and low dissolved oxygen (DO) on the early life stages of the coastal fish Sillago japonica were investigated. Twenty-five experimental treatments fully crossed in five levels of pH 7.6-8.1 and DO 50-230 μmol/kg (20-100 % saturation degree) were tested, and hatching rate of the embryos and survivability of the larvae after 24 h at 25 °C were investigated. Low DO treatment significantly affected the embryos and larvae compared to low pH treatment. The 50 % lethal concentration of DO showed the highest value at pH 7.6 and the lowest value at pH 7.7 and 7.9 for embryos and larvae, respectively. Therefore, effects of deoxygenation on fishes were alleviated under acidified condition around pH 7.7-7.9.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

Acute heat priming promotes short-term climate resilience of early life stages in a model sea anemone

Across diverse taxa, sublethal exposure to abiotic stressors early in life can lead to benefits such as increased stress tolerance upon repeat exposure. This phenomenon, known as hormetic priming, is largely unexplored in early life stages of marine invertebrates, which are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic climate change. To investigate this phenomenon, larvae of the sea anemone and model marine invertebrate Nematostella vectensis were exposed to control (18 °C) or elevated (24 °C, 30 °C, 35 °C, or 39 °C) temperatures for 1 h at 3 days post-fertilization (DPF), followed by return to control temperatures (18 °C). The animals were then assessed for growth, development, metabolic rates, and heat tolerance at 4, 7, and 11 DPF. Priming at intermediately elevated temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C, or 35 °C) augmented growth and development compared to controls or priming at 39 °C. Indeed, priming at 39 °C hampered developmental progression, with around 40% of larvae still in the planula stage at 11 DPF, in contrast to 0% for all other groups. Total protein content, a proxy for biomass, and respiration rates were not significantly affected by priming, suggesting metabolic resilience. Heat tolerance was quantified with acute heat stress exposures, and was significantly higher for animals primed at intermediate temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C, or 35 °C) compared to controls or those primed at 39 °C at all time points. To investigate a possible molecular mechanism for the observed changes in heat tolerance, the expression of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) was quantified at 11 DPF. Expression of HSP70 significantly increased with increasing priming temperature, with the presence of a doublet band for larvae primed at 39 °C, suggesting persistent negative effects of priming on protein homeostasis. Interestingly, primed larvae in a second cohort cultured to 6 weeks post-fertilization continued to display hormetic growth responses, whereas benefits for heat tolerance were lost; in contrast, negative effects of short-term exposure to extreme heat stress (39 °C) persisted. These results demonstrate that some dose-dependent effects of priming waned over time while others persisted, resulting in heterogeneity in organismal performance across ontogeny following priming. Overall, these findings suggest that heat priming may augment the climate resilience of marine invertebrate early life stages via the modulation of key developmental and physiological phenotypes, while also affirming the need to limit further anthropogenic ocean warming.

Heat-induced female biased sex ratio during development is not mitigated after prolonged thermal selection

BACKGROUND

The negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity are consistently increasing. Developmental stages are particularly sensitive in many ectotherms. Moreover, sex-specific differences in how organisms cope with thermal stress can produce biased sex ratios upon emergence, with potentially major impacts on population persistence. This is an issue that needs investigation, particularly testing whether thermal selection can alleviate sex ratio distortions in the long-term is a critical but neglected issue. Here, we report an experiment analyzing the sex ratio patterns at different developmental temperatures in Drosophila subobscura populations subjected to long-term experimental evolution (~ 30 generations) under a warming environment.

RESULTS

We show that exposure to high developmental temperatures consistently promotes sex ratio imbalance upon emergence, with a higher number of female than male offspring. Furthermore, we found that thermal selection resulting from evolution in a warming environment did not alleviate such sex ratio distortions generated by heat stress.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that heat stress during development can lead to clear sex ratio deviations upon emergence likely because of differential survival between sexes. In face of these findings, it is likely that sex ratio deviations of this sort occur in natural populations when facing environmental perturbation. The inability of many insects to avoid thermal shifts during their (more) sessile developmental stages makes this finding particularly troublesome for population subsistence in face of climate warming events.

Toxicity of tire particle leachates on early life stages of keystone sea urchin species

Particles from tires are a major fraction of microplastic pollution. They contain a wide range of chemical additives that can leach into the water and be harmful to aquatic organisms. In this study, we investigated the acute toxicity of tire particle leachates in early life stages of three keystone echinoderm species (Paracentrotus lividus, Arbacia lixula, Diadema africanum). Embryos were exposed for 72 h to a range of leachate dilutions, prepared using a concentration of 1 g L-1. Larval growth, abnormal development, and mortality were the measured endpoints. Furthermore, we estimated the activity of glutathione S transferase (GST) and the electron transport system (ETS) in P. lividus. Strong concentration-dependent responses were observed in all species, though with differing sensitivity. The median effect concentrations for abnormal development in P. lividus and A. lixula were 0.16 and 0.35 g L-1, respectively. In D. africanum, mortality overshadowed abnormal development and the median lethal concentration was 0.46 g L-1. Larvae of P. lividus were significantly smaller than the control from 0.125 g L-1, while the other two species were affected from 0.5 g L-1. ETS activity did not change but there was a non-significant trend of increasing GST activity with leachate concentration in P. lividus. Seven organic chemicals and eight metals were detected at elevated concentrations in the leachates. While we regard zinc as a strong candidate to explain some of the observed toxicity, it can be expected that tire particle leachates exhibit a cocktail effect and other leached additives may also contribute to their toxicity. Our results emphasize the importance of multi-species studies as they differ in their susceptibility to tire particle pollution. We found negative effects at concentrations close to projections in the environment, which calls for more research and mitigation actions on these pollutants.

ECOfast - An integrative ecological evaluation index for an ecosystem-based assessment of shallow rocky reefs

The degradation of marine ecosystems is a growing concern worldwide, emphasizing the need for efficient tools to assess their ecological status. Herein, a novel ecosystem-based ecological evaluation index of shallow rocky reefs is introduced and tested in the Aegean and Ionian Seas (NE Mediterranean). The index focuses on a specific set of pre-selected species, including habitat-forming, key, commercially important, and non-indigenous species, across a wide range of trophic levels (1.00-4.53). Data acquisition is conducted through rapid non-destructive SCUBA diving surveys to assess all macroscopic food web components (macroalgae, invertebrates, and fish). Two versions of the index, ECOfast and ECOfast-NIS, were developed, each applying a different approach to account for the impact of non-indigenous species. In our case study, the correlations between the two versions of the index and sea surface temperature, protection status, occurrence of carnivorous fish, and non-indigenous herbivores were assessed through generalized additive models (GAMs). The assessment assigned 93% (ECOfast) or 96% (ECOfast-NIS) of the sites to a moderate to bad ecological status, indicating an alarming situation in the shallow rocky reefs of the NE Mediterranean. Sites evaluated as poor or bad were characterized by extensive coverage of ephemeral macroalgae, absence or minimal presence of large indigenous carnivorous fish, and complete absence of one to three out of five invertebrate functional trophic groups. The community composition of macroalgae, herbivorous species, and carnivorous fishes differed between the 5 m and 15 m depth zones. Surface temperature and carnivorous fish occurrence were the most important tested predictors of the ecological status of shallow rocky reefs. The best GAMs showed that the ECOfast score declined with sea surface temperature and increased with the occurrence of carnivorous fish; ECOfast-NIS declined with sea surface temperature and the occurrence of non-indigenous fish and increased with the occurrence of carnivorous fish. The non-destructive and integrative nature of this approach, its speed of data acquisition and analysis, and its capacity to account for highly mobile predatory fish and non-indigenous species render the ECOfast index a novel, robust, and valuable tool for assessing the ecological status of shallow rocky reefs.

The biocide triclosan as a potential developmental disruptor in Mytilus early larvae

The broadly utilized biocide triclosan (TCS) is continuously discharged in water compartments worldwide, where it is detected at concentrations of ng-µg/L. Given its lipophilicity and bioaccumulation, TCS is considered potentially harmful to human and environmental health and also as a potential endocrine disruptor (ED) in different species. In aquatic organisms, TCS can induce a variety of effects: however, little information is available on its possible impact on invertebrate development. Early larval stages of the marine bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis have been shown to be sensitive to environmental concentrations of a number of emerging contaminants, including EDs. In this work, the effects of TCS were first evaluated in the 48 h larval assay in a wide concentration range (0.001-1,000 μg/L). TCS significantly affected normal development of D-veligers (LOEC = 0.1 μg/L; EC50 = 236.1 μg/L). At selected concentrations, the mechanism of action of TCS was investigated. TCS modulated transcription of different genes involved in shell mineralization, endocrine signaling, ceramide metabolism, and biotransformation, depending on larval stage (24 and 48 h post-fertilization-hpf) and concentration (1 and 10 μg/L). At 48 hpf and 10 μg/L TCS, calcein staining revealed alterations in CaCO3 deposition, and polarized light microscopy showed the absence of shell birefringence due to the mineralized phase. Observations by scanning electron microscopy highlighted a variety of defects in shell formation from concentrations as low as 0.1 μg/L. The results indicate that TCS, at environmental exposure levels, can act as a developmental disruptor in early mussel larvae mainly by interfering with the processes of biomineralization.

Marine heatwave temperatures enhance larval performance but are meditated by paternal thermal history and inter-individual differences in the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

Marine heatwave (MHW) events, characterized by periods of anomalous temperatures, are an increasingly prevalent threat to coastal marine ecosystems. Given the seasonal phenology of MHWs, the full extent of their biological consequences may depend on how these thermal stress events align with an organism's reproductive cycle. In organisms with more complex life cycles (e.g., many marine invertebrate species) the alignment of adult and larval environments may be an important factor determining offspring success, setting the stage for MHW events to influence reproduction and development in situ. Here, the influence of MHW-like temperatures on the early development of the California purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, were explored within the context of paternal thermal history. Based on temperature data collected during MHW events seen in Southern California from 2014-2020, adult urchins were acclimated to either MHW or non-MHW temperatures for 28 days before their sperm was used to produce embryos that were subsequently raised under varying thermal conditions. Once offspring reached an early larval stage, the impact of paternal and offspring environments were assessed on two aspects of offspring performance: larval size and thermal tolerance. Exposure to elevated temperatures during early development resulted in larger, more thermally tolerant larvae, with further influences of paternal identity and thermal history, respectively. The alignment of paternal and offspring exposure to MHW temperatures had additional positive benefits on larval thermal tolerance, but this tolerance significantly decreased when their thermal experience mismatched. As the highest recorded temperatures within past MHW events have occurred during the gametogenesis of many kelp forest benthic marine invertebrate species, such as the purple sea urchin, such parental mediated impacts may represent important drivers of future recruitment and population composition for these species.

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (-35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (-9%) and tropical (-8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (-20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (-30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (-51%, -34% and -40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems.

Rapid heat hardening in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei

Adaptive thermal tolerance plasticity can dampen the negative effects of warming. However, our knowledge of tolerance plasticity is lacking for embryonic stages that are relatively immobile and may benefit the most from an adaptive plastic response. We tested for heat hardening capacity (a rapid increase in thermal tolerance that manifests in minutes to hours) in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei. We compared the survival of a lethal temperature exposure between embryos that either did (hardened) or did not (not hardened) receive a high but non-lethal temperature pre-treatment. We also measured heart rates (HRs) at common garden temperatures before and after heat exposures to assess metabolic consequences. 'Hardened' embryos had significantly greater survival after lethal heat exposure relative to 'not hardened' embryos. That said, heat pre-treatment led to a subsequent increase in embryo HR that did not occur in embryos that did not receive pre-treatment, indicative of an energetic cost of mounting the heat hardening response. Our results are not only consistent with adaptive thermal tolerance plasticity in these embryos (greater heat survival after heat exposure), but also highlight associated costs. Thermal tolerance plasticity may be an important mechanism by which embryos respond to warming that warrants greater consideration.

Heat-avoidance behavior associates with thermal sensitivity rather than tolerance in aphid assemblages

How to predict animals' heat-avoidance behaviors is critical since behavior stands the first line for animals dealing with frequent heat events under ongoing climate warming. However, the discrepancy between the scarcity of research on heat-avoidance behaviors and the commonness of eco-physiological data for thermal tolerance and for thermal sensitivity such as the temperature-dependent survival time makes it difficult to link physiological thermal traits to heat-avoidance behavior. Aphids usually suck plant sap on a fixed site on the host plants at moderate temperatures, but they will leave and seek cooler feeding sites under stressful temperatures. Here we take the cereal aphid assemblages comprising different species with various development stages as a model system. We tested the hypotheses that heat tolerance (critical thermal maximum, CT_max) or heat sensitivity (temperature-dependent declining rate of survival time, similarly hereinafter) would associate with the temperature at which aphid activate heat-avoidance behavior. Specifically, we hypothesized the aphids with less heat tolerance or greater heat sensitivity would take a lower heat risk by leaving the host plant earlier. By mimicking the linear increase in ambient temperature during the daytime, we measured the CT_max and the heat-avoidance temperature (HAT, at which aphids leave the host plant to find cooler places) to understand their heat tolerance and heat-avoidance behavior. Then, we tested the survival time of aphids at different temperatures and calculated the slope of survival time declining with temperature to assess their heat sensitivity (HS). Finally, we examined the relationships between CT_max and HAT and between HS and HAT to understand if the heat-avoidance behavior associates with heat tolerance or with heat sensitivity. The results showed that HS and HAT had a strong correlation, with more heat sensitive individuals displayed lower HAT. By contrast, CT_max and HAT had a weak correlation. Our results thus provide evidence that heat sensitivity is a more reliable indicator than thermal tolerance linking with the heat-avoidance behavior in the aphid assemblages. Most existing studies use the indexes related to thermal tolerance to predict warming impacts. Our findings highlight the urgency to incorporate thermal sensitivity when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Phenomics enables measurement of complex responses of developing animals to global environmental drivers

Phenomics offers technological advances for high-dimensional phenotyping, facilitating rapid, high-throughput assessment of physiological performance and has proven invaluable in global research challenges including drug discovery and food security. However, this rapidly growing discipline has remained largely inaccessible to the increasingly urgent challenge of assessing organismal functional sensitivity to global change drivers. Here, we investigate the response of an ecologically important marine invertebrate to multiple environmental drivers using Energy Proxy Traits (EPTs), a new approach for measuring complex phenotypes captured on video as a spectrum of energy levels across different temporal frequencies in fluctuating pixel values. We imaged three developmental stages of the common prawn Palaemon serratus at different salinities and temperatures, and measured EPTs and heart rate, a major proxy of physiological performance in ectotherms present across stages. Significant interactions were detected between temperature, developmental stage and salinity in frequency-specific energy levels. Despite cardiac activity being a significant contributor to the EPT spectra, treatment interactions were different from those observed on EPTs, highlighting additional phenotypic drivers of EPTs. Elevated temperature resulted in a shift of the EPT spectra towards higher frequency signals, indicating a reallocation of resources within the phenome. Using a non-linear dimensionality reduction, we interrogated the responses of EPT spectra in high-dimensional space. We discovered complex developmental-stage specific sensitivities, highlighting both the complexity of phenotypic responses, and the limits of using univariate approaches with pre-selected traits to assess responses to multiple global environmental drivers. EPTs are a high-dimensional, transferrable method of phenotyping, and are therefore highly relevant to addressing the current limitations of traditional methods of phenotyping applied to assessing biological sensitivity to drivers of global change. We predict that EPTs will become an important tool for indiscriminate phenotyping, transferrable between species, developmental stages and experimental designs.

The ecological consequences of the timing of extreme climate events

Climate change is increasing the intensity, duration, and frequency of extreme climate events (ECEs). These ECEs can have major ecological consequences, e.g., changing nutrient flows, causing extirpation, and altering organismal development. Many ECEs are discrete events that occur at distinctive times during the biological processes they impact. Because of this, ECEs are likely to have differing ecological impacts depending on when they happen, yet we lack on studies that explore how the ecological consequences of ECEs vary with when they occur. Drawing upon evidence from physiological, population, and community ecology, and previous work on ecological disturbances, we suggest that the consequences of ECEs will be sensitive to when they occur. We illustrate the importance of timing by showing how the effects of an ECE could vary depending on when it occurs through the course of (1) organismal ontogeny, (2) population dynamics, and (3) community assembly. An enhanced focus on the timing of extreme weather in climate change research will reveal how and when ECEs are altering ecosystems, possible mechanisms behind these impacts, and what ecosystems or species are most vulnerable to ECEs, helping us to make more informed predictions about the ecological consequences of climate change.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

Populations of western North American monkeyflowers accrue niche breadth primarily via genotypic divergence in environmental optima

Niche breadth, the range of environments that individuals, populations, and species can tolerate, is a fundamental ecological and evolutionary property, yet few studies have examined how niche breadth is partitioned across biological scales. We use a published dataset of thermal performance for a single population from each of 10 closely related species of western North American monkeyflowers (genus Mimulus) to investigate whether populations achieve broad thermal niches through general purpose genotypes, specialized genotypes with divergent environmental optima, and/or variation among genotypes in the degree of generalization. We found the strongest relative support for the hypothesis that populations with greater genetic variation for thermal optimum had broader thermal niches, and for every unit increase in among‐family variance in thermal optimum, population‐level thermal breadth increased by 0.508°C. While the niche breadth of a single genotype represented up to 86% of population‐level niche breadth, genotype‐level niche breadth had a weaker positive effect on population‐level breadth, with every 1°C increase in genotypic thermal breadth resulting in a 0.062°C increase in population breadth. Genetic variation for thermal breadth was not predictive of population‐level thermal breadth. These findings suggest that populations of Mimulus species have achieved broad thermal niches primarily through genotypes with divergent thermal optima and to a lesser extent via general‐purpose genotypes. Future work examining additional biological hierarchies would provide a more comprehensive understanding of how niche breadth partitioning impacts the vulnerabilities of individuals, populations, and species to environmental change.

Microplastics, both non-biodegradable and biodegradable, do not affect the whole organism functioning of a marine mussel

Microplastics are ubiquitous in the marine environment, and their uptake by many organisms has been well documented. Concern about increasing plastic waste in ecosystems and organisms has led to the production of biodegradable alternatives. However, long breakdown times of biodegradable plastics in natural environments mean they still have the potential to induce ecological impacts. The impacts of microplastics on organisms remain unclear, especially as many experimental microplastic exposures employ particle concentrations orders of magnitude greater than those found in natural ecosystems. Here, we exposed the ecosystem engineer, the Asian green mussel Perna viridis, to non-biodegradable and biodegradable microplastics at two environmentally relevant concentrations (~17-20 particles L^-1 and ~ 135-140 particles L^-1). After four weeks of exposure, there were no significant effects of microplastic type or concentration on the mortality, oxygen consumption rate, clearance rate, or condition index of P. viridis. With the increasing body of microplastic literature, future exposure studies considering biotic effects should make efforts to employ environmentally relevant concentrations. Further, we suggest that, while a high-profile threat to ecosystems, investigating the effects of microplastics on ecosystems should be conducted alongside, and not draw focus away from, other major threats such as climate change.

Near-future extreme temperatures affect physiology, morphology and recruitment of the temperate sponge Crella incrustans

Current rates of greenhouse gas emissions are leading to a rapid increase in global temperatures and a greater occurrence of extreme climatic events such as marine heatwaves. In this study, we assessed the effects of thermal conditions predicted to occur within the next 40 years (SSP3-7.0 scenario of IPCC, 2021) on the respiration rate, buoyant weight, morphology and recruitment of the temperate model sponge Crella incrustans. Under predicted average temperatures (+ 2.5 °C, over the local mean), C. incrustans did not show any physiological and morphological changes compared to current conditions. However, when exposed to a simulated marine heatwave (16 days duration and a thermal peak at 22 °C), there was a large increase in sponge respiration rate, significant weight loss resulting from tissue regression, and sponge mortality. The simulated marine heatwave resulted also in a shorter period of recruitment, lower recruitment rate and higher mortality of settlers. Despite the tissue regression, the majority of sponges that survived the extreme temperatures showed respiration rates similar to controls 13 days after the thermal peak, indicating some resilience of C. incrustans to extreme thermal events. Our study shows that marine heatwaves will significantly impact the physiology, morphology, and recruitment of temperate sponges under near-future conditions, but that these sponges are likely to persist in warmer oceans.

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

Zooplankton Abundance Reflects Oxygen Concentration and Dissolved Organic Matter in a Seasonally Hypoxic Estuary

Ocean deoxygenation, warming, and acidification resulting from global change and increasing nutrient inputs are major threats to marine ecosystems. Despite this, spatial and temporal patterns of oxygen availability and their impacts on marine life are understudied compared to warming and acidification, particularly in coastal tropical ecosystems. We measured the abundance of major groups of zooplankton in the context of five covarying environmental parameters [temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic matter (DOM), and chlorophyll concentration] in a tropical estuary for one year. Partial least squares demonstrated that environmental conditions explained 20% of the variation in the community and found that temperature, salinity, DO, and DOM were most important (Variable Importance in Projection [VIP] > 0.8). A generalized linear model identified depth, DO, salinity, and chlorophyll as significant main effects, and temperature and DOM were also significant via two-way interactions (p < 0.05). When examined separately, the abundance of each zooplankton group was explained by a slightly different combination of environmental factors, but in all cases DO had large, significant effects, and in most cases DOM or its interactions were also significant. These results demonstrate that the seasonal cycle of hypoxia in this system significantly impacts the abundance of major zooplankton groups and likely also recruitment of benthic fauna through impacts on meroplankton and benthic-pelagic food webs.

Plastic and natural inorganic microparticles do not differ in their effects on adult mussels (Mytilidae) from different geographic regions

Microplastics are ubiquitous in the marine environment and studies on their effects on benthic filter feeders at least partly revealed a negative influence. However, it is still unclear whether the effects of microplastics differ from those of natural suspended microparticles, which constitute a common stressor in many coastal environments. We present a series of experiments that compared the effects of six-week exposures of marine mussels to two types of natural particles (red clay and diatom shells) to two types of plastic particles (Polymethyl Methacrylate and Polyvinyl Chloride). Mussels of the family Mytilidae from temperate regions (Japan, Chile, Tasmania) through subtropical (Israel) to tropical environments (Cabo Verde) were exposed to concentrations of 1.5 mg/L, 15 mg/L and 150 mg/L of the respective microparticles. At the end of this period, we found significant effects of suspended particles on respiration rate, byssus production and condition index of the animals. There was no significant effect on clearance rate and survival. Surprisingly, we observed only small differences between the effects of the different types of particles, which suggests that the mussels were generally equally robust towards exposure to variable concentrations of suspended solids regardless of whether they were natural or plastic. We conclude, that microplastics and suspended solids elicit similar effects on the tested response variables, and that both types of microparticles mainly cause acute responses rather than more persistent carry-over effects.

Predicting selection-response gradients of heat tolerance in a widespread reef-building coral

Ocean temperatures continue to rise owing to climate change, but it is unclear whether heat tolerance of marine organisms will keep pace with warming. Understanding how tolerance scales from individuals to species and quantifying adaptive potentials is essential to forecasting responses to warming. We reproductively crossed corals from a globally distributed species (Acropora tenuis) on the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) from three thermally distinct reefs to create 85 offspring lineages. Individuals were experimentally exposed to temperatures (27.5, 31 and 35.5°C) in adult and two critical early life stages (larval and settlement) to assess acquired heat tolerance via outcrossing of offspring phenotypes by comparing five physiological responses (photosynthetic yields, bleaching, necrosis, settlement and survival). Adaptive potentials and physiological reaction norms were calculated across three stages to integrate heat tolerance at different biological scales. Selective breeding improved larval survival to heat by 1.5-2.5× but did not result in substantial enhancement of settlement, although population crosses were significantly different. Under heat stress, adults were less variable compared with larval responses in warmer reefs than in the cooler reef. Adults and offspring also differed in their mean population responses, likely underpinned by heat stress imposing strong divergent selection on adults. These results have implications for downstream selection during reproduction, evidenced by variability in a conserved heat tolerance response across offspring lineages. These results inform our ability to forecast the impacts of climate change on wild populations of corals and will aid in developing novel conservation tools such as the assisted evolution of at-risk species.

Developmental timing of extreme temperature events (heat waves) disrupts host-parasitoid interactions

When thermal tolerances differ between interacting species, extreme temperature events (heat waves) will alter the ecological outcomes. The parasitoid wasp Cotesia congregata suffers high mortality when reared throughout development at temperatures that are nonstressful for its host, Manduca sexta. However, the effects of short-term heat stress during parasitoid development are unknown in this host-parasitoid system.Here, we investigate how duration of exposure, daily maximum temperature, and the developmental timing of heat waves impact the performance of C. congregata and its host¸ M. sexta. We find that the developmental timing of short-term heat waves strongly determines parasitoid and host outcomes.Heat waves during parasitoid embryonic development resulted in complete wasp mortality and the production of giant, long-lived hosts. Heat waves during the 1st-instar had little effect on wasp success, whereas heat waves during the parasitoid's nutritionally and hormonally critical 2nd instar greatly reduced wasp emergence and eclosion. The temperature and duration of heat waves experienced early in development determined what proportion of hosts had complete parasitoid mortality and abnormal phenotypes.Our results suggest that the timing of extreme temperature events will be crucial to determining the ecological impacts on this host-parasitoid system. Discrepancies in thermal tolerance between interacting species and across development will have important ramifications on ecosystem responses to climate change.

Local adaptation to climate anomalies relates to species phylogeny

Climatic anomalies are increasing in intensity and frequency due to rapid rates of global change, leading to increased extinction risk for many species. The impacts of anomalies are likely to vary between species due to different degrees of sensitivity and extents of local adaptation. Here, we used long-term butterfly monitoring data of 143 species across six European bioclimatic regions to show how species’ population dynamics have responded to local or globally-calculated climatic anomalies, and how species attributes mediate these responses. Contrary to expectations, degree of apparent local adaptation, estimated from the relative population sensitivity to local versus global anomalies, showed no associations with species mobility or reproductive rate but did contain a strong phylogenetic signal. The existence of phylogenetically-patterned local adaptation to climate has important implications for forecasting species responses to current and future climatic conditions and for developing appropriate conservation practices.

Melero et al. investigate butterfly responses to climatic anomalies from long-term monitoring observations in the field. They found the degree of adaptation to local fluctuations in climate had a strong phylogenetic signal but was not associated with mobility or reproductive rate of a species.

Microplastics aggravate the bioaccumulation and toxicity of coexisting contaminants in aquatic organisms: A synergistic health hazard

There are ongoing controversies regarding the effects of microplastics (MPs) on the bioaccumulation and toxicity of coexisting contaminants in aquatic organisms. This study aims to quantitatively evaluate this issue based on 870 endpoints from 40 publications. It was shown that the presence of MPs significantly increased the bioaccumulation of co-contaminants by 31%, with high statistical power and without obvious publication bias. The aggravated bioaccumulation was also revealed by the strongly positive correlation between bioconcentration factors in the presence and the absence of MPs. Furthermore, the subgroup/regression analyses indicated that the vector effect of MPs on other chemicals was affected by multiple factors and their interactions, such as particle size and exposure time. In addition, a relatively comprehensive biomarker profile was recompiled from included studies to assess the changes in toxicity caused by combined exposure. Results confirmed that the presence of MPs obviously exacerbated the toxicity of co-contaminants by 18%, manifested by the potentiated cytotoxicity, endocrine disruption, immunotoxicity and oxidative stress, implying a synergistic health hazard. Ultimately, the mismatches between laboratory and field conditions were discussed, and the recommendations for future research were offered.

Selection of predictor variables for species distribution models: a case study with an invasive marine bryozoan

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for predicting the occurrence and abundance of organisms in space and time, with numerous applications in ecology. However, the accuracy and utility of SDMs can be compromised when predictor variables are selected without careful consideration of their ecophysiological relevance to the focal organism. We conducted an in-depth examination of the variable selection process by evaluating predictors to be used in SDMs for Membranipora membranacea, an ecologically significant marine invasive species with a complex lifecycle, as a case study. Using an information-theoretic and multi-model inference approach based on generalized linear mixed models, we assessed multiple environmental variables (depth, kelp density, kelp substrate, temperature, and wave exposure) as predictors of the abundance of multiple life stages of M. membranacea, investigating species-environment relationships and relative and absolute variable importance. We found that the relative importance of a predictor, the metric calculated to represent a predictor, and whether a predictor was proximal or distal were important considerations in the variable selection process. Data constraints (e.g. sample size, characteristics of available predictor data) may inhibit accurate assessment of predictor variables during variable selection. Importantly, our results suggest that species-environment relationships derived from small-scale studies can inform variable selection for SDMs at larger spatiotemporal scales. We developed a conceptual framework for variable selection for SDMs which can be applied to most contexts of species distribution modelling, but particularly those with several candidate predictors and a large dataset.

Does a complex life cycle affect adaptation to environmental change? Genome-informed insights for characterizing selection across complex life cycle

Complex life cycles, in which discrete life stages of the same organism differ in form or function and often occupy different ecological niches, are common in nature. Because stages share the same genome, selective effects on one stage may have cascading consequences through the entire life cycle. Theoretical and empirical studies have not yet generated clear predictions about how life cycle complexity will influence patterns of adaptation in response to rapidly changing environments or tested theoretical predictions for fitness trade-offs (or lack thereof) across life stages. We discuss complex life cycle evolution and outline three hypotheses—ontogenetic decoupling, antagonistic ontogenetic pleiotropy and synergistic ontogenetic pleiotropy—for how selection may operate on organisms with complex life cycles. We suggest a within-generation experimental design that promises significant insight into composite selection across life cycle stages. As part of this design, we conducted simulations to determine the power needed to detect selection across a life cycle using a population genetic framework. This analysis demonstrated that recently published studies reporting within-generation selection were underpowered to detect small allele frequency changes (approx. 0.1). The power analysis indicates challenging but attainable sampling requirements for many systems, though plants and marine invertebrates with high fecundity are excellent systems for exploring how organisms with complex life cycles may adapt to climate change.

Warming conditions boost reproductive output for a northern gopher tortoise population

The effects of climate change on at-risk species will depend on how life history processes respond to climate and whether the seasonal timing of local climate changes overlaps with species-specific windows of climate sensitivity. For long-lived, iteroparous species like gopher tortoises Gopherus polyphemus, climate likely has a greater influence on reproduction than on adult survival. Our objective was to estimate the timing, magnitude, and direction of climate-driven effects on gopher tortoise reproductive output using a 25 yr dataset collected in southeastern Georgia, USA, near the northern edge of the species’ range. We assessed the timing of climate effects on reproductive output (both probability of reproduction and clutch size) by fitting models with climate covariates (maximum temperature, precipitation, and temperature range) summarized at all possible time intervals (in 1 mo increments) within the 24 mo period prior to the summer census date. We then fit a final model of reproductive output as a function of the identified climate variables and time windows using a Bayesian mixture model. Probability of reproduction was positively correlated with the prior year’s April-May maximum temperature, and clutch size was positively correlated with the prior year’s June maximum temperature. April-May and June maximum temperatures have increased over the past 3 decades at the study site, which likely led to an increase in clutch size of approximately 1 egg (15% increase over a mean of 6.5 eggs). However, the net effect of climate change on gopher tortoise population dynamics will depend on whether there are opposing or reinforcing climate responses for other demographic rates.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

Negative carry-over effects on larval thermal tolerances across a natural thermal gradient

Under climate change, marine organisms will need to tolerate or adapt to increasing temperatures to persist. The ability of populations to cope with thermal stress may be influenced by conditions experienced by parents, by both genetic changes and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity through epigenetics or maternal provisioning. In organisms with complex life cycles, larval stages are particularly vulnerable to stress. Positive parental carry-over effects occur if more stressful parental environments yield more tolerant offspring while the opposite pattern leads to negative carry-over effects. This study evaluated the role of parental effects in determining larval thermal tolerances for the intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus. We tested whether thermal environments across a natural gradient (shoreline elevation) impacted mussel temperature tolerances. Lethal thermal limits were compared for field-collected adults and their larvae. We observed parental effects across one generation, in which adult mussels exposed to warmer habitats yielded less tolerant offspring. Interestingly, although parental environments influenced offspring tolerances, we found no clear effects of habitat conditions on adult phenotypes (tolerances). We found indicators of trade-offs in energy investment, with higher reproductive condition and larger egg diameters in low stress environments. These results suggest that parental effects are negative, leading to possible adverse effects of thermal stress on the next generation.

Thermal Performance Curves Are Shaped by Prior Thermal Environment in Early Life

Understanding links between thermal performance and environmental variation is necessary to predict organismal responses to climate change, and remains an ongoing challenge for ectotherms with complex life cycles. Distinct life stages can differ in thermal sensitivity, experience different environmental conditions as development unfolds, and, because stages are by nature interdependent, environmental effects can carry over from one stage to affect performance at others. Thermal performance may therefore respond to carryover effects of prior thermal environments, yet detailed insights into the nature, strength, and direction of those responses are still lacking. Here, in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos, and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics, we explore the effects of prior thermal environments at fertilization and embryogenesis on thermal performance curves at the end of planktonic development. We factorially manipulate temperatures at fertilization and embryogenesis, then, for each combination of prior temperatures, measure thermal performance curves for survival of planktonic development (end of the larval stage) throughout the performance range. By combining generalized linear mixed modeling with parametric bootstrapping, we formally estimate and compare curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits, and breadth) among prior environments, and reveal carryover effects of temperature at embryogenesis, but not fertilization, on thermal optima at completion of development. Specifically, thermal optima shifted to track temperature during embryogenesis, while thermal limits and breadth remained unchanged. Our results argue that key aspects of thermal performance are shaped by prior thermal environment in early life, warranting further investigation of the possible mechanisms underpinning that response, and closer consideration of thermal carryover effects when predicting organismal responses to climate change.

A state-space approach to understand responses of organisms, populations and communities to multiple environmental drivers

Understanding the response of biotic systems to multiple environmental drivers is one of the major concerns in ecology. The most common approach in multiple driver research includes the classification of interactive responses into categories (antagonistic, synergistic). However, there are situations where the use of classification schemes limits our understanding or cannot be applied. Here, we introduce and explore an approach that allows us to better appreciate variability in responses to multiple drivers. We then apply it to a case, comparing effects of heatwaves on performance of a cold-adapted species and a warm-adapted competitor. The heatwaves had a negative effect on the native (but not on the exotic) species and the approach highlighted that the exotic species was less responsive to multivariate environmental variation than the native species. Overall, we show how the proposed approach can enhance our understanding of variation in responses due to different driver intensities, species, genotypes, ontogeny, life-phases or among spatial scales at any level of biological organization.

Giménez et al. explore a “state-space” approach (SSEA) to examine variation in effects of multiple environmental drivers on biological systems. They illustrate the SSEA with a case study where larvae of an exotic crab were less responsive to an experimental heatwave than those of a native species.

Tolerant Larvae and Sensitive Juveniles: Integrating Metabolomics and Whole-Organism Responses to Define Life-Stage Specific Sensitivity to Ocean Acidification in the American Lobster

Bentho-pelagic life cycles are the dominant reproductive strategy in marine invertebrates, providing great dispersal ability, access to different resources, and the opportunity to settle in suitable habitats upon the trigger of environmental cues at key developmental moments. However, free-dispersing larvae can be highly sensitive to environmental changes. Among these, the magnitude and the occurrence of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in oceanic habitats is predicted to exacerbate over the next decades, particularly in coastal areas, reaching levels beyond those historically experienced by most marine organisms. Here, we aimed to determine the sensitivity to elevated pCO₂ of successive life stages of a marine invertebrate species with a bentho-pelagic life cycle, exposed continuously during its early ontogeny, whilst providing in-depth insights on their metabolic responses. We selected, as an ideal study species, the American lobster Homarus americanus, and investigated life history traits, whole-organism physiology, and metabolomic fingerprints from larval stage I to juvenile stage V exposed to different pCO₂ levels. Current and future ocean acidification scenarios were tested, as well as extreme high pCO₂/low pH conditions that are predicted to occur in coastal benthic habitats and with leakages from underwater carbon capture storage (CCS) sites. Larvae demonstrated greater tolerance to elevated pCO₂, showing no significant changes in survival, developmental time, morphology, and mineralisation, although they underwent intense metabolomic reprogramming. Conversely, juveniles showed the inverse pattern, with a reduction in survival and an increase in development time at the highest pCO₂ levels tested, with no indication of metabolomic reprogramming. Metabolomic sensitivity to elevated pCO₂ increased until metamorphosis (between larval and juvenile stages) and decreased afterward, suggesting this transition as a metabolic keystone for marine invertebrates with complex life cycles.

Age dependent physiological tolerances explain population dynamics and distribution in the intertidal zone: A study with porcelain crabs

Population dynamics and their response to environmental stressors have been widely studied in intertidal organisms. However, how these dynamics and responses change with animal age have been largely ignored to date. Traditionally, it is assumed that younger organisms are more sensitive than adults to environmental stressors; under this perspective it could be predicted that fully grown organisms should be able to occupy the harsh upper limit of their intertidal habitat. However, in some intertidal Porcelain crabs the opposite distribution has been observed. Using Petrolisthes laevigatus, we tested the physiological tolerance of crabs of different sizes (i.e. age) and evaluated how this trait shapes population dynamics (distribution and small-scale migrations under different weather conditions). We determined the abundance and size distribution of P. laevigatus at the middle and upper intertidal levels during sunny and rainy days, finding that abundances decreased drastically and size distribution shifted to smaller individuals on rainy days. In the laboratory, survival and behavioural responses of individuals in water at 5, 10, 15 and 33 PSU salinities were evaluated. Young crabs were found in higher proportion in the upper intertidal while fully grown crabs (i.e. adults) mainly occupied the middle intertidal zone. Young crabs had a higher osmoregulatory capacity than adults, as they were better at regulating passive water uptake when challenged with diluted seawater. This was also correlated with a lower lethal salinity LC₅₀ in young crabs compared to adults. Behavioural trials showed that young crabs performed better escaping in both water and air, at intermediate and reduced salinities than adults. Therefore, weather influences small scale migrations from the upper to the lower intertidal zone, and this migration is also age-dependent, with younger crabs being more tolerant to low salinities and therefore allowing them to remain in the upper intertidal zone during raniny days.

Physiological basis of interactive responses to temperature and salinity in coastal marine invertebrate: Implications for responses to warming

Developing physiological mechanistic models to predict species' responses to climate-driven environmental variables remains a key endeavor in ecology. Such approaches are challenging, because they require linking physiological processes with fitness and contraction or expansion in species' distributions. We explore those links for coastal marine species, occurring in regions of freshwater influence (ROFIs) and exposed to changes in temperature and salinity. First, we evaluated the effect of temperature on hemolymph osmolality and on the expression of genes relevant for osmoregulation in larvae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas. We then discuss and develop a hypothetical model linking osmoregulation, fitness, and species expansion/contraction toward or away from ROFIs. In C. maenas, high temperature led to a threefold increase in the capacity to osmoregulate in the first and last larval stages (i.e., those more likely to experience low salinities). This result matched the known pattern of survival for larval stages where the negative effect of low salinity on survival is mitigated at high temperatures (abbreviated as TMLS). Because gene expression levels did not change at low salinity nor at high temperatures, we hypothesize that the increase in osmoregulatory capacity (OC) at high temperature should involve post-translational processes. Further analysis of data suggested that TMLS occurs in C. maenas larvae due to the combination of increased osmoregulation (a physiological mechanism) and a reduced developmental period (a phenological mechanisms) when exposed to high temperatures. Based on information from the literature, we propose a model for C. maenas and other coastal species showing the contribution of osmoregulation and phenological mechanisms toward changes in range distribution under coastal warming. In species where the OC increases with temperature (e.g., C. maenas larvae), osmoregulation should contribute toward expansion if temperature increases; by contrast in those species where osmoregulation is weaker at high temperature, the contribution should be toward range contraction.

Sex Ratios in a Warming World: Thermal Effects on Sex-Biased Survival, Sex Determination, and Sex Reversal

Rising global temperatures threaten to disrupt population sex ratios, which can in turn cause mate shortages, reduce population growth and adaptive potential, and increase extinction risk, particularly when ratios are male biased. Sex ratio distortion can then have cascading effects across other species and even ecosystems. Our understanding of the problem is limited by how often studies measure temperature effects in both sexes. To address this, the current review surveyed 194 published studies of heat tolerance, finding that the majority did not even mention the sex of the individuals used, with <10% reporting results for males and females separately. Although the data are incomplete, this review assessed phylogenetic patterns of thermally induced sex ratio bias for 3 different mechanisms: sex-biased heat tolerance, temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), and temperature-induced sex reversal. For sex-biased heat tolerance, documented examples span a large taxonomic range including arthropods, chordates, protists, and plants. Here, superior heat tolerance is more common in females than males, but the direction of tolerance appears to be phylogenetically fluid, perhaps due to the large number of contributing factors. For TSD, well-documented examples are limited to reptiles, where high temperature usually favors females, and fishes, where high temperature consistently favors males. For temperature-induced sex reversal, unambiguous cases are again limited to vertebrates, and high temperature usually favors males in fishes and amphibians, with mixed effects in reptiles. There is urgent need for further work on the full taxonomic extent of temperature-induced sex ratio distortion, including joint effects of the multiple contributing mechanisms.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

The thermal environment at fertilization mediates adaptive potential in the sea

Additive genetic variation for fitness at vulnerable life stages governs the adaptive potential of populations facing stressful conditions under climate change, and can depend on current conditions as well as those experienced by past stages or generations. For sexual populations, fertilization is the key stage that links one generation to the next, yet the effects of fertilization environment on the adaptive potential at the vulnerable stages that then unfold during development are rarely considered, despite climatic stress posing risks for gamete function and fertility in many taxa and external fertilizers especially. Here, we develop a simple fitness landscape model exploring the effects of environmental stress at fertilization and development on the adaptive potential in early life. We then test our model with a quantitative genetic breeding design exposing family groups of a marine external fertilizer, the tubeworm Galeolaria caespitosa, to a factorial manipulation of current and projected temperatures at fertilization and development. We find that adaptive potential in early life is substantially reduced, to the point of being no longer detectable, by genotype‐specific carryover effects of fertilization under projected warming. We interpret these results in light of our fitness landscape model, and argue that the thermal environment at fertilization deserves more attention than it currently receives when forecasting the adaptive potential of populations confronting climate change.

Larval tolerance to food limitation is stronger in an exotic barnacle than in its native competitor

A critical question in marine ecology is understanding how organisms will cope with environmental conditions under climate change. Increasing temperatures not only have a direct effect on marine organisms but may also lead to food limitation through for example trophic mismatches, or by the increased metabolic demands imposed by developing at high temperatures. Using barnacles from a population of North Wales, we studied the combined effect of temperature and food density on the survival, settlement success, developmental time and body size of larvae of the native barnacle Semibalanus balanoides and its exotic competitor, the barnacle Austrominius modestus. Larvae were reared at similar food levels but at temperature ranges which varied among species reflecting their different phenology and tolerances. For S. balanoides (spring larval release) we used a lower temperature of 9 °C, reflecting spring temperatures from N Wales to SW England, and 15 °C representing warmer conditions; for A. modestus (summer larval release) a typical summer temperature for this geographic range of 15 °C was used with a raised temperature of 18 °C. Larvae were reared under controlled conditions in automated, computer programmable incubators and fed diatoms (Skeletonema costatum) at three food levels. We found stress effects of food limitation on larval performance of S. balanoides. While survival during naupliar development was little affected by food and temperature, low food levels strongly depressed survival and settlement during the cyprid stage of S. balanoides at both tested temperatures, but especially at 15 °C. By contrast, at the tested temperatures little effects were found on survival and settlement success in the exotic A. modestus. Both species delayed development in response to low food levels while S. balanoides cyprids showed decreased body size at the high tested temperature. The main impact occurred as a delayed effect, at the time when cyprids attempt to settle, rather than as an effect on naupliar survival or metamorphosis to the cyprid stage. Response in body size and developmental time may have costs at the time of metamorphosis (delayed settlement) or after metamorphosis. Overall, our experiments suggest that as temperature increases, settlement success of S. balanoides larvae (but not that of its competitor A. modestus) will become more sensitive to conditions of food limitation, imposed for instance by phenological mismatches with periods of phytoplankton peak.

Evolutionary Phycology: Toward a Macroalgal Species Conceptual Framework

Species concepts formalize evolutionary and ecological processes, but often conflict with one another when considering the mechanisms that ultimately lead to species delimitation. Evolutionary biologists are, however, recognizing that the conceptualization of a species is separate and distinct from the delimitation of species. Indeed, if species are generally defined as separately evolving metapopulation lineages, then characteristics, such as reproductive isolation or monophyly, can be used as evidence of lineage separation and no longer conflict with the conceptualization of a species. However, little of this discussion has addressed the formalization of this evolutionary conceptual framework for macroalgal species. This may be due to the complexity and variation found in macroalgal life cycles. While macroalgal mating system variation and patterns of hybridization and introgression have been identified, complex algal life cycles generate unique eco-evolutionary consequences. Moreover, the discovery of frequent macroalgal cryptic speciation has not been accompanied by the study of the evolutionary ecology of those lineages, and, thus, an understanding of the mechanisms underlying such rampant speciation remain elusive. In this perspective, we aim to further the discussion and interest in species concepts and speciation processes in macroalgae. We propose a conceptual framework to enable phycological researchers and students alike to portray these processes in a manner consistent with dialogue at the forefront of evolutionary biology. We define a macroalgal species as an independently evolving metapopulation lineage, whereby we can test for reproductive isolation or the occupation of distinct adaptive zones, among other mechanisms, as secondary lines of supporting evidence.

Thermal performance curves reveal shifts in optima, limits and breadth in early life

Understanding thermal performance at life stages that limit persistence is necessary to predict responses to climate change, especially for ectotherms whose fitness (survival and reproduction) depends on environmental temperature. Ectotherms often undergo stage-specific changes in size, complexity and duration that are predicted to modify thermal performance. Yet performance is mostly explored for adults, while performance at earlier stages that typically limit persistence remains poorly understood. Here, we experimentally isolate thermal performance curves at fertilization, embryo development and larval development stages in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics. Unlike previous studies based on short-term exposures, responses with unclear links to fitness or proxies in lieu of explicit curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits and breadth), we measured performance as successful completion of each stage after exposure throughout, and at temperatures that explicitly capture curve descriptors at all stages. Formal comparisons of descriptors using a combination of generalized linear mixed modelling and parametric bootstrapping reveal important differences among life stages. Thermal performance differs significantly from fertilization to embryo development (with thermal optimum declining by ∼2°C, thermal limits shifting inwards by ∼8-10°C and thermal breadth narrowing by ∼10°C), while performance declines independently of temperature thereafter. Our comparisons show that thermal performance at one life stage can misrepresent performance at others, and point to gains in complexity during embryogenesis, rather than subsequent gains in size or duration of exposure, as a key driver of thermal sensitivity in early life.