Extreme drought reduces climatic disequilibrium in dryland plant communities

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Extinction drives recent thermophilization but does not trigger homogenization in forest understorey

The ongoing climate change is triggering plant community thermophilization. This selection process ought to shift community composition towards species adapted to warmer climates but may also lead to biotic homogenization. The link between thermophilization and homogenization and the community dynamics that drive them (colonization and extinction) remain unknown but is critical for understanding community responses under rapid environmental change. We used 14,167 pairs of plots to study shifts in plant community during 10 years of rising temperature in 80 forest ecoregions of France. We computed community mean thermal optimum (thermophilization) and Δβ-diversity (homogenization) for each ecoregion and partitioned these changes into extinction and colonization dynamics of cold- and warm-adapted species. Forest understorey communities thermophilized on average by 0.12 °C per decade and up to 0.20 °C per decade in warm ecoregions. This rate was entirely driven by extinction dynamics. Extinction of cold-adapted species was a driver of homogenization but it was compensated for by the colonization of rare species and the extinction of common species, resulting in the absence of an apparent homogenization trend. Here we show a dieback of present cold-adapted species rather than an adaptation of communities via the arrival of warm-adapted species, with a mutually cancelling effect on β-diversity. These results suggest that a future loss of biodiversity and delayed biotic homogenization should be considered.

Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests

Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.