Verification of risk scores to predict i.v. immunoglobulin resistance in incomplete Kawasaki disease

Novel Score to Predict Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease

To evaluate existing scoring systems and develop a new model to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). A retrospective cohort study performed between 2004 and 2017 identified 115 patients treated with IVIG for classic or incomplete KD. In our practice, IVIG resistance was defined as fever for > 24 h and patients were divided into responders and non-responders. A univariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of IVIG resistance. The predictors were combined into a new scoring system and compared with existing scoring systems. Sixty-five patients had classic KD and 50 had incomplete KD. Among the 115 patients, 80 (69.6%) responded and the remaining 35 were resistant (30.4%) to IVIG. Of the 35 resistant patients, 16 patients had incomplete KD. Hispanic children comprised 43% of our sample population. Coronary artery abnormalities developed in 14 of the 35 IVIG-resistant patients (39%). Univariate analysis showed that IVIG-resistant patients were older and present with lower platelets, potassium, and creatinine (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis used platelets, potassium, body surface area (BSA), and creatinine to devise the Las Vegas Scoring System (LVSS), which demonstrated a sensitivity of 76.2% and a specificity of 68.6%. Compared to published data, we observed a higher rate of IVIG resistance and coronary artery abnormalities in our patient population. The LVSS (using platelets, potassium, BSA, and creatinine) showed higher specificity and comparable sensitivity to other scoring systems devised to predict IVIG resistance.

Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis

Background

In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores.

Methods

A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools.

Results

We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51).

Conclusion

Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.

Kawasaki Disease: Predictors of Resistance to Intravenous Immunoglobulin and Cardiac Complications

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired cardiac disease in children, in developed countries.

OBJECTIVES

To identify predictive factors for resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), calculate the effectiveness of Japanese predictive models and characterize cardiac complications.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of KD cases admitted in a Portuguese paediatric hospital between january 2006 and july 2018. ROC curves were used to determine predictive factors for resistance and the multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predictive model. A significance level of 5% was used.

RESULTS

48 patients with a median age of 36 months were included. The IVIG resistance was 21%. Echocardiographic anomalies were noted in 46%, with coronary involvement in 25% of the sample population. As predictive variable of resistance, the C-reactive protein (CRP) presented an AUC ROC = 0.789, optimal cut-off value 15.1 mg/dL, sensitivity (Sn) 77.8% and specificity (Sp) 78.9%. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) presented an AUC ROC = 0.781, optimal cut-off value 90.5 mm/h, Sn 66.7% and Sp 85.7%. The model with the two variables showed p = 0.042 and AUC ROC = 0.790. Predictive strength of Japanese models were: Kobayashi (Sn 63.6%, Sp 77.3%), Egami (Sn 66.7%, Sp 73.1%), Sano (Sn 28.6%, Sp 94.1%).

CONCLUSION

CRP and ESR are independent variables that were related to IVIG resistance, with optimal cut-off points of 15.1 mg/dL and 90.5 mm/h, respectively. About half of the patients had some form of cardiac involvement. The Japanese models appeared to be inadequate in our population. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(3):485-491).

Measuring Vasculitis with Numbers: Outcome Scores

Primary Systemic Vasculitides (PSV) are a heterogeneous group of diseases. Outcome scores are important to evaluate vasculitis patients in a more structured and standard way and these help physicians to predict patients with poor prognosis or high risk of relapse. Furthermore, we need reliable outcome measures for clinical trials. There are a number of vasculitis outcome scores available in the clinical practice with different strengths and limitations. These are mainly measures of disease activity, disease damage, response to treatment and quality of life. Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS) and its pediatric version aim to evaluate a wide scope of PSV. On the other hand, some outcome studies have focused on a single vasculitis type since the whole group includes different diseases with heterogeneous clinical features. The aim of this review is to provide an overview on outcome measures currently being used in the evaluation of patients with PSV. We mainly focus on immunoglobulin A vasculitis/Henochschönlein purpura, Kawasaki disease, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, polyarteritis nodosa, Takayasu arteritis and Behçet's disease.

Failure to Predict High-risk Kawasaki Disease Patients in a Population-based Study Cohort in Germany

BACKGROUND

Diverse scores on high-risk Kawasaki disease (KD) patients have proven a good prognostic validity in the Japanese population. However, data on non-Japanese have been inconclusive. Do the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano scores or application of up-to-date statistical methods (Random Forest) predict response to standard intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy and the risk of persistent coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) in patients with KD in a mainly Caucasian population in Germany?

METHODS

Data on 442 children (German population-based survey, 2013 and 2014) were used to assess the prognostic validity of the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano scores for being refractory to IVIG treatment and for predicting the risk of persistent CAA. Additionally, an up-to-date statistical approach (Random Forest) was applied to identify a potentially more valid score.

RESULTS

A total of 301 children were eligible for assessment of their response to IVIG treatment. Among those, 177 children were followed-up for 1 year to identify persistent CAA. Although all scores were significantly associated with being refractory to IVIG (relative risk range between 2.32 and 3.73), the prognostic properties were low (likelihood ratio positive: 1.83-4.57; sensitivity in the range of 0.28-0.53). None of the scores was a significant predictor of CAA 1 year after acute illness. Application of statistical analysis such as Random Forest did not yield a more valid score.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the available scores appears to be appropriate for identifying high-risk Caucasian children with KD who might need intensified therapy.

Establishment of Kawasaki disease database based on metadata standard

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare disease that occurs predominantly in infants and young children. To identify KD susceptibility genes and to develop a diagnostic test, a specific therapy, or prevention method, collecting KD patients’ clinical and genomic data is one of the major issues. For this purpose, Kawasaki Disease Database (KDD) was developed based on the efforts of Korean Kawasaki Disease Genetics Consortium (KKDGC). KDD is a collection of 1292 clinical data and genomic samples of 1283 patients from 13 KKDGC-participating hospitals. Each sample contains the relevant clinical data, genomic DNA and plasma samples isolated from patients’ blood, omics data and KD-associated genotype data. Clinical data was collected and saved using the common data elements based on the ISO/IEC 11179 metadata standard. Two genome-wide association study data of total 482 samples and whole exome sequencing data of 12 samples were also collected. In addition, KDD includes the rare cases of KD (16 cases with family history, 46 cases with recurrence, 119 cases with intravenous immunoglobulin non-responsiveness, and 52 cases with coronary artery aneurysm). As the first public database for KD, KDD can significantly facilitate KD studies. All data in KDD can be searchable and downloadable. KDD was implemented in PHP, MySQL and Apache, with all major browsers supported.

Database URL:http://www.kawasakidisease.kr

Efficacy of Four Scoring Systems in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children with Kawasaki Disease in a Children's Hospital in Beijing, North China

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive efficacies of 4 existing scoring systems for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease (KD) in hospitalized children with KD in a children's hospital affiliated with the Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.

STUDY DESIGN

We retrospectively analyzed 1569 children with KD treated at our children's hospital between January 2010 and December 2015. Age, sex, clinical manifestations, and pretreatment hematologic indicators were recorded. Scores were assigned using 4 existing scoring systems: Egami, Kobayashi, San Diego, and Formosa. A 4-case table test was used to determine prediction efficacies.

RESULTS

There were 63 IVIG-resistant cases (41 males, 22 females; average age, 2.5 years). Nine cases were classified as high risk for IVIG resistance by the Egami system, and this system had a sensitivity of 14% and a specificity of 86%. Ten cases had Kobayashi high-risk scores, and this system had a sensitivity of 16% and a specificity of 85%. The San Diego system assigned 60 cases as high-risk, and had a sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 3%. Finally, 27 cases had Formosa scores in the high-risk category, and this system had a sensitivity of 43% and a specificity of 47%.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the evaluated systems for assessing the risk for IVIG resistance displayed the combination of sensitivity and specificity necessary for screening. Our analyses show that the 4 scoring systems have limited utility in predicting IVIG resistance among patients with KD in our population.

Kawasaki disease in Sicily: clinical description and markers of disease severity

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute systemic vasculitis of small and middle size arteries; 15-25 % of untreated patients and 5 % of patients treated with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) develop coronary artery lesions (CAL). Many studies tried to find the most effective treatment in the management of resistant KD and to select the risk factors for CAL. Our data are assessed on children from west Sicily, characterized by a genetic heterogeneity.

METHODS

We studied the clinical data of 70 KD Sicilian children (36 males: 51 %; 34 females: 49 %), analysed retrospectively, including: demographic and laboratory parameters; echocardiographic findings at diagnosis, at 2, 6 and 8 weeks, and at 1 year after the onset of the illness.

RESULTS

Forty-seven had Typical KD, three Atypical KD and twenty Incomplete KD. Age at the disease onset ranged from 0.1 to 8.9 years. IVIG were administered 5 ± 2 days after the fever started. Defervescence occurred 39 ± 26 hours after the first IVIG infusion. Fifty-six patients (80 %) received 1 dose of IVIG (responders); 14 patients (20 %) had a resistant KD, with persistent fever after the first IVIG dose (non responders). Ten (14 %) non responders responded to the second dose, 4 (5 %) responded to three doses; one needed treatment with high doses of steroids and Infliximab. Cardiac involvement was documented in twenty-two cases (eighteen with transient dilatation/ectasia, fifteen with aneurysms). Pericardial effusion, documented in eleven, was associated with coronaritis and aneurysms, and was present earlier than coronary involvement in seven. Hypoalbuminemia, D-dimer pre-IVIG, gamma-GT pre-IVIG showed a statistically significant direct correlation with IVIG doses, highlighting the role of these parameters as predictor markers of refractory disease. The persistence of elevated CRP, AST, ALT levels, a persistent hyponatremia and hypoalbuminemia after IVIG therapy, also had a statistical significant correlation with IVIG doses. Non responders showed higher levels of D-dimer and gamma-GT pre-IVIG, persistent high levels of D-dimer, CRP, AST, ALT, hypoalbuminemia and hyponatremia after IVIG.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study on KD in Sicily. We suggest some laboratory parameters as predictive criteria for resistant KD. Patients who show early pericarditis need careful surveillance for coronary lesions.

Critical Overview of the Risk Scoring Systems to Predict Non-Responsiveness to Intravenous Immunoglobulin in Kawasaki Syndrome

Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is the most relevant cause of heart disease in children living in developed countries. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) has a preventive function in the formation of coronary artery abnormalities and a poor strictly-curative action in established coronary damage. More than two decades ago, the Harada score was set to assess which children with KS should be subject to administration of IVIG, evaluating retrospectively a large cohort of patients with regard to age, sex and laboratory data. Nowadays, high dose IVIG is administered to all children with a confirmed diagnosis of KS, but a tool for predicting non-responsiveness to the initial infusion of IVIG has not been found. The prediction of IVIG resistance is a crucial issue, as recognising these high-risk patients should consent the administration of an intensified initial treatment in combination with IVIG in order to prevent coronary injuries. Few reports have focused on factors, referring to both clinical parameters and laboratory data at the onset of KS, in order to predict which patients might be IVIG non-responsive. We have analysed three different risk scores which were formulated to predict IVIG resistance in Japanese children with typical KS, but their application in non-Japanese patients or in those with incomplete and atypical patterns of the disease has been studied in a fragmentary way. Overall, our analysis showed that early and definite ascertainment of likely IVIG non-responders who require additional therapies reducing the development of coronary artery involvement in children with KS is still a challenge.

Use of corticosteroids during acute phase of Kawasaki disease

In spite of initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment, a significant number of patients are unresponsive to it and are at a higher risk for coronary artery lesions. Corticosteroids have been used as a secondary drug or used in combination with IVIG. Three options of using corticosteroids for the treatment of patients during the acute phase of Kawasaki disease, have been considered. The first is their use exclusively for patients unresponsive to IVIG treatment. The second is their use in combination with IVIG as the routine first line therapy for all patients. The last is the use in the combination as the first line therapy for selected patients at a high risk being unresponsive to initial IVIG. However, it is uncertain that the corticosteroids as the second line treatment are better than the additional IVIG in patients unresponsive to initial IVIG. The combination of corticosteroids and IVIG as the routine first line therapy also have not enough evidences. The last option of using corticosteroids - the combination of corticosteroids and IVIG in patients at high risk of unresponsiveness, is a properly reasonable treatment strategy. However, there have been no globally standardized predictive models for the unresponsiveness to initial IVIG treatment. Therefore, future investigations to determine the best predictive model are necessary.