A Framework to Optimize Biodiversity Restoration Efforts Based on Habitat Amount and Landscape Connectivity

Speeding up the recovery of coastal habitats through management interventions that address constraints on dispersal and recruitment

Plans for habitat restoration will benefit from predictions of timescales for recovery. Theoretical models have been a powerful tool for informing practical guidelines in planning marine protected areas, suggesting restoration planning could also benefit from a theoretical framework. We developed a model that can predict recovery times following restoration action, under dispersal, recruitment and connectivity constraints. We apply the model to a case study of seagrass restoration and find recovery times following restoration action can vary greatly, from <1 to >20 years. The model also shows how recovery can be accelerated when restoration actions are matched to the constraints on recovery. For example, spreading of propagules can be used when connectivity is the critical restriction. The recovery constraints we articulated mathematically also apply to the restoration of coral reefs, mangroves, saltmarsh, shellfish reefs and macroalgal forests, so our model provides a general framework for choosing restoration actions that accelerate coastal habitat recovery.

Promoting Bird Functional Diversity on Landscapes with a Matrix of Planted Eucalyptus spp. in the Atlantic Forest

Promoting the diversity of biological communities in areas of agricultural production is a very current debate since protected areas may not be sufficient to ensure biodiversity conservation. Among the biological communities affected by the production areas are birds, which show rapid responses to changes in the landscape. Here we seek to understand how landscape planning, concerning its composition and configuration, in areas with a matrix of planted Eucalyptus spp. forests influences the functional diversity of bird assemblages in the Atlantic Forest. Our results show that the spatial distribution design of planted forests in terms of age, land cover and clone types have effects on bird diversity with regard to functional divergence, functional evenness and species richness. These results reinforce the importance of good management for the maintenance of bird diversity. We found that bird functional diversity in planted forest matrices increased with the proximity index, proportion of native vegetation and age importance value, and is negatively influenced by edge density and proportion of forest plantation. For bird conservation, it is thus better to associate Eucalyptus spp. with other cover types in the landscape. These results corroborate that, to increase bird functional diversity, it is possible to associate conservation and production in the same landscape. Mosaic landscapes have great potential to contribute to the conservation of bird biodiversity outside protected areas. However, decisions regarding the management of planted forests and planning of improved areas intended for conservation seem to be decisive to ensure the maintenance of bird biodiversity.

Constructing urban ecological corridors to reflect local species diversity and conservation objectives

Ensuring bird diversity can secure key ecosystem services within cities. Building ecological corridors into urban planning is an effective way to protect urban birds, but existing corridor construction methods often ignore locality and diversity of species, leading to homogenization of corridor construction results and orientation. We proposed a corridor construction model that combines local bird surveys and bird threat levels. After constructing differentiated corridors for each bird species by assessing their habits and flight abilities, we used three weighted scenarios (original, weighted abundance, weighted abundance, and phylogeny) to assess the conservation priorities of birds and overlaid them to derive a comprehensive bird corridor model. Our results show significant differences in conservation priority and corridor pattern among different bird species, thus demonstrating the importance of local bird surveys and knowledge of threat levels in accurate corridor simulations. This study provides differential simulation of corridors for each bird species and the identification of important conservation species, and uses these to extend the theory of ecological corridor planning to urban bird populations. These results can be applied to guide biodiversity management, evaluate green space policies, and provide practical assistance for sustainable urban development and management.

Restoration of linear disturbances from oil-and-gas exploration in boreal landscapes: How can network models help?

In western Canada, decades of oil-and-gas exploration have fragmented boreal landscapes with a dense network of linear forest disturbances (seismic lines). These seismic lines are implicated in the decline in wildlife populations that are adapted to function in unfragmented forest landscapes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances have led to a decline of woodland caribou populations due to increasing predator access to core caribou habitat. Restoration of seismic lines aims to reduce the landscape fragmentation and stop the decline of caribou populations. However, planning restoration in complex landscapes can be challenging because it must account for a multitude of diverse aspects. To assist with restoration planning, we present a spatial network optimization approach that selects restoration locations in a fragmented landscape while addressing key environmental and logistical constraints. We applied the model to develop restoration scenarios in the Redrock-Prairie Creek caribou range in northwestern Alberta, Canada, which includes a combination of caribou habitat and active oil-and-gas and timber extraction areas. Our study applies network optimization at two distinct scales to address both the broad-scale restoration policy planning and project-level constraints at the level of individual forest sites. We first delineated a contiguous set of coarse-scale regions where restoration is most cost-effective and used this solution to solve a fine-scale network optimization model that addresses environmental and logistical planning constraints at the level of forest patches. Our two-tiered approach helps address the challenges of fine-scale spatial optimization of restoration activities. An additional coarse-scale optimization step finds a feasible starting solution for the fine-scale restoration problem, which serves to reduce the time to find an optimal solution. The added coarse-scale spatial constraints also make the fine-scale restoration solution align with the coarse-scale landscape features, which helps address the broad-scale restoration policies. The approach is generalizable and applicable to assist restoration planning in other regions fragmented by oil-and-gas activities.

Linking above and belowground carbon sequestration, soil organic matter properties, and soil health in Brazilian Atlantic Forest restoration

Forest restoration mitigates climate change by removing CO2 and storing C in terrestrial ecosystems. However, incomplete information on C storage in restored tropical forests often fails to capture the ecosystem's holistic C dynamics. This study provides an integrated assessment of C storage in above to belowground subsystems, its consequences for greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and the quantity, quality, and origin of soil organic matter (SOM) in restored Atlantic forests in Brazil. Relations between SOM properties and soil health indicators were also explored. We examined two restorations using tree planting ('active restoration'): an 8-year-old forest with green manure and native trees planted in two rounds, and a 15-year-old forest with native-planted trees in one round without green manure. Restorations were compared to reformed pasture and primary forest sites. We measured C storage in soil layers (0-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm), litter, and plants. GHG emissions were assessed using CH4 and CO2 fluxes. SOM quantity was evaluated using C and N, quality using humification index (HLIFS), and origin using δ13C and δ15N. Nine soil health indicators were interrelated with SOM attributes. The primary forest presented the highest C stocks (107.7 Mg C ha-1), followed by 15- and 8-year-old restorations and pasture with 69.8, 55.5, and 41.8 Mg C ha-1, respectively. Soil C stocks from restorations and pasture were 20% lower than primary forest. However, 8- and 15-year-old restorations stored 12.3 and 28.3 Mg ha-1 more aboveground C than pasture. The younger forest had δ13C and δ15N values of 2.1 and 1.7‰, respectively, lower than the 15-year-old forest, indicating more C derived from C3 plants and biological N fixation. Both restorations and pasture had at least 34% higher HLIFS in deeper soil layers (10-30 cm) than primary forest, indicating a lack of labile SOM. Native and 15-year-old forests exhibited higher soil methane influx (141.1 and 61.9 μg m-2 h-1). Forests outperformed pasture in most soil health indicators, with 69% of their variance explained by SOM properties. However, SOM quantity and quality regeneration in both restorations approached the pristine forest state only in the top 10 cm layer, while deeper soil retained agricultural degradation legacies. In conclusion, active restoration of the Atlantic Forest is a superior approach compared to pasture reform for GHG mitigation. Nonetheless, the development of restoration techniques to facilitate labile C input into deeper soil layers (>10 cm) is needed to further improve soil multifunctionality and long-term C storage.

The importance of patch shape at threshold occupancy: functional patch size within total habitat amount

The habitat amount hypothesis (HAH) stresses the importance of total patch amount over the size of individual patches in determining species richness within a local landscape. However, the absence of some species from patches too small to contain a territory would be inconsistent with the HAH. Using the association of territory size with body size and the circle as optimal territory shape, we tested several HAH predictions of threshold patch occupancy and richness of 19 guilds of primarily insectivorous breeding birds. We characterized 16 guild-associated patch types at high spatial resolution and assigned one type to each guild. We measured functional patch size as the largest circle that fit within each patch type occurring in a local landscape. Functional patch size was the sole or primary predictor in regression models of species richness for 15 of the 19 guilds. Total patch amount was the sole or primary variable in only 2 models. Quantifying patch size at high resolution also demonstrated that breeding birds should be absent from patches that are too small to contain a territory and larger species should occur only in larger patches. Functional patch size is a readily interpretable metric that helps explain the habitat basis for differences in species composition and richness between areas. It provides a tool to assess the combined effects of patch size, shape and perforation on threshold habitat availability, and with total patch amount can inform design and/or evaluation of conservation, restoration or enhancement options for focal taxa or biodiversity in general.

Priority areas and benefits of ecosystem restoration in Beijing

Ecological restoration can significantly improve ecosystem services and human well-being and provide a basis for regional coordinated development and ecological security. To guide restoration efforts, information on the potential benefits of restoration was required to efficiently target investments. Although the number of studies focusing on ecosystem restoration has increased in recent decades, priority areas that integrate ecological and economic benefits have yet to be identified. We developed and applied a prioritization approach to identify potential priority sites in Beijing. We used the historical environmental data on Beijing to identify areas of degradation and to assess the feasibility of restoration. Ecosystem service and quality degradation, low ecosystem quality, and soil erosion were integrated into one index to indicate the restoration importance. Potential restoration benefits were mapped using the monetary value of six ecosystem services. Based on the importance and benefits of restoration, three scenarios were developed to identify priority restoration areas. In Beijing, restoring 30% of the degraded area (1531 km2) in priority areas by 2050 could increase the annual ecological benefit by more than 5 billion yuan, or approximately 787 million USD, and could decrease the ecological degradation index by 50%. By integrating explicit spatial information on restoration importance and restoration benefits, this methodology provides a feasible way to identify restoration priority areas and assess restoration benefits.

Integrating Habitat Availability, Permeability, and Configuration in a Model of Landscape Connectivity: The Contribution of Habitat's Site-to-Site

The landscape configuration, the permeability of the matrix and the possibility of random dispersal movement of species are essential to robust modeling of the landscape connectivity. To represent this condition, we report a spatial model that integrates graph theory, circuit theory, metrics of habitat availability and includes a temporal aspect by looking into land use changes over time. We identify the possibilities of movement of species site-to-site over time in the landscape, taking into account not only the importance of sites of focal habitats, but also the potential relevance of the matrix for landscape connectivity. The modeling was applied to two rural landscapes, considering three functional groups of mammals with different resource-feeding and habitat requirements. The model indicated multiple and new dispersal non-linear potential routes to each group of mammals, considering its specific requirement to obtain resources and its movement pattern on the agricultural matrix.

Priority setting for restoration in surrounding savannic areas of the Brazilian Pantanal based on soil loss risk and agrarian structure

Soil health is at the core of the sustainability agenda. As in many agroecosystems in the tropics, soil erosion is a major issue in poorly managed pasturelands. A noteworthy case is located in the Upper Taquari River Basin (UTRB), as part of the Upper Paraguay Basin on the plateau with drainage waters for the Taquari megafan in the Brazilian Pantanal. Here we combine slope (S-factor), erodibility (E-factor), rainfall-rainy day ratio (R-factor), and vegetation and soil indices (C-factor) to locate erosion risk and prioritize eco-engineering interventions via palisades and small dams in UTRB. The method consisted of assessing distinct weights between Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors in a GIS platform, providing 35 combinations of classes as low, moderate, high, and very high erosive risk. The validation of the method was based on the ravine and plain ground truths obtained from high-resolution raster data. The best weight of USLE factors aids to locate critical erosive sites and vegetation patterns. Then, erosion risk and interventions were analyzed according to land use and rural property sizes in the government's Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) database. Overall, the natural factors of slope and erodibility in a proportion of 25% and 75% in GIS algebra provided the best mapping accuracy result. About 65% of the UTRB has high or very high erosion risks, and 70% of the available area can be acknowledged as degraded pasturelands. A total of 4744 erosion interventions were recorded, with an accuracy of 65.28% and 61.15% for check dams and palisades interventions, respectively. The number of necessary interventions in areas of native vegetation was almost 50% higher than in pasturelands. Even though micro landowners occupy most of the watershed, large properties have about ten times as many areas at high risk of erosion. The mutual cooperation between properties, independently of size, is supported by governmental public policies like incentives for ecosystem services restoration of critical gullies, with CAR compliance and fiscalization.

Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado

Predicting the geographic distribution of plants that provide ecosystem services is essential to understand the adaptation of communities and conserve that group toward climate change. Predictions can be more accurate if changes in physiological characteristics of species due to those changes are included. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the different hierarchical levels of Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J. F. Macbr. (Fabaceae). Therefore, we experimentally evaluate the effect of different temperatures on the initial development (vigor) and estimate the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of the species, using ecological niche approaches. For the experiment, we used 11 temperature intervals of 2 °C ranging from 21 to 41 °C. We used ecological niche modeling techniques (ENM) to predict the species' environmental suitability in future climate scenarios. The association between the experiment and niche models was obtained by testing the relationships of temperature increase on the species vigor and geographic distribution. This conceptual model to determine the direct and indirect effects of temperature was generated using the methodological framework of structural equation models. The experiment showed that the seeds had the highest growth at 31 °C. ENMs indicated that due to climate change, there is a tendency for the plant to migrate to regions with milder temperatures. However, such regions may be unsuitable for the plant since they do not have ideal temperatures to germinate, which may cause a drastic reduction in their availability in a future climate change scenario. The inclusion of seed germination through experimental research allowed us to detect an area that is less suitable for germination despite being climatically suitable for the species. Thus, research that integrates the effect of climate on the different stages of the organism's development is essential to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity.

Conservation planning on China's borders with Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam

Transboundary conservation is playing an increasingly important role in maintaining ecosystem integrity and halting biodiversity loss caused by anthropogenic activities. However, lack of information on species distributions in transboundary regions and understanding of the threats in these areas impairs conservation. We developed a spatial conservation plan for the transboundary areas between Yunnan province, southwestern China, and neighboring Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. To identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, we determined species distribution patterns and recent land-use changes and examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the connected natural forest, which supports most species. We assessed connectivity with equivalent connected area (ECA), which is the amount of reachable habitat for a species. An ECA incorporates the presence of habitat in a patch and the amount of habitat in other patches within dispersal distance. We analyzed 197,845 locality records from specimen collections and monographs for 21,004 plant and vertebrate species. The region of Yunnan immediately adjacent to the international borders had the highest species richness, with 61% of recorded species and 56% of threatened vertebrates, which suggests high conservation value. Satellite imagery showed the area of natural forest in the border zone declined by 5.2% (13,255 km² ) from 1995 to 2018 and monoculture plantations increased 92.4%, shrubland 10.1%, and other cropland 6.2%. The resulting decline in connected natural forest reduced the amount of habitat, especially for forest specialists with limited dispersal abilities. The most severe decline in connectivity was along the Sino-Vietnamese border. Many priority areas straddle international boundaries, indicating demand and potential for establishing transboundary protected areas. Our results illustrate the importance of bi- and multilateral cooperation to protect biodiversity in this region and provide guidance for future conservation planning and practice.

Which is worse for the red-billed curassow: habitat loss or hunting pressure?

Large ground-dwelling Neotropical gamebirds are highly threatened by habitat loss and hunting, but conservationists rarely attempt to distinguish between these two threats in the management of populations. We used three different types of species records to determine the status (i.e. persistence level) of the Endangered red-billed curassow Crax blumenbachii in 14 forest remnants in north-east Brazil, as either persistent, precarious or extirpated. We related these persistence levels to variables measured in a 2-km buffer radius, including variables associated with habitat quality (proportion of forest cover, length of rivers, patch density, distance from rivers) and hunting pressure (proportion of cacao agroforests and farmlands, length of roads, total area occupied by settlements, distance from roads and from settlements). Curassows were more persistent in forest patches located (1) more distant from settlements, (2) in landscapes with few settlements, (3) in landscapes with a high incidence of roads, (4) in a mosaic with a high proportion of forest, shaded cacao agroforest and farmland, and (5) more distant from other forest patches. Hunting pressure potentially exerts more influence on persistence than habitat quality: (1) hunting pressure submodels had a higher explanatory power than habitat quality submodels, (2) final models comprised four hunting pressure variables but only two habitat quality variables, and (3) hunting pressure variables appeared in all models whereas habitat quality variables appeared in only one final model. If hunting pressure is driving declines in curassows, regions with low human presence and a high proportion of forest cover are recommended for establishing new reserves.

Temporal Non-stationarity of Path-Selection Movement Models and Connectivity: An Example of African Elephants in Kruger National Park

Effective conservation and land management require robust understanding of how landscape features spatially and temporally affect population distribution, abundance and connectivity. This is especially important for keystone species known to shape ecosystems, such as the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). This work investigates monthly patterns of elephant movement and connectivity in Kruger National Park (KNP; South Africa), and their temporal relationship with landscape features over a 12-month period associated with the occurrence of a severe drought. Based on elephant locations from GPS collars with a short acquisition interval, we explored the monthly patterns of spatial-autocorrelation of elephant movement using Mantel correlograms, and we developed scale-optimized monthly path-selection movement and resistant kernel connectivity models. Our results showed high variability in patterns of autocorrelation in elephant movements across individuals and months, with a preponderance of directional movement, which we believe is related to drought induced range shifts. We also found high non-stationarity of monthly movement and connectivity models; most models exhibited qualitative similarity in the general nature of the predicted ecological relationships, but large quantitative differences in predicted landscape resistance and connectivity across the year. This suggests high variation in space-utilization and temporal shifts of core habitat areas for elephants in KNP. Even during extreme drought, rainfall itself was not a strong driver of elephant movement; elephant movements, instead, were strongly driven by selection for green vegetation and areas near waterholes and small rivers. Our findings highlight a potentially serious problem in using movement models from a particular temporal snapshot to infer general landscape effects on movement. Conservation and management strategies focusing only on certain areas identified by temporarily idiosyncratic models might not be appropriate or efficient as a guide for allocating scarce resources for management or for understanding general ecological relationships.

A biome-wide experiment to assess the effects of propagule size and treatment on the survival of Portulacaria afra (spekboom) truncheons planted to restore degraded subtropical thicket of South Africa

Insights from biome-wide experiments can improve efficacy of landscape-scale ecological restoration projects. Such insights enable implementers to set temporal and geographical benchmarks and to identify key drivers of success during the often decades-long restoration trajectory. Here we report on a biome-wide experiment aimed at informing the ecological restoration of thousands of hectares of degraded subtropical thicket dominated by the succulent shrub, Portulacaria afra (spekboom). Restoration using spekboom truncheons has the potential to sequester, for a semi-arid region, large amounts of ecosystem carbon, while regenerating a host of associated ecosystem services. This study evaluates, after about three years post-propagation, the effects of spekboom truncheon size and treatment on survivorship in 40 fence-enclosed (0.25 ha) plots located in target habitat across the entire spekboom thicket biome. In each plot, locally harvested spekboom truncheons, comprising eight size/treatment combinations, were planted in replicated rows of between 24 and 49 individuals, depending on treatment. The experiment assessed the role of truncheon size, spacing, application of rooting hormone and watering at planting on survivorship percentage as an indicator of restoration success. All eight combinations recorded extreme minimum survivorship values of zero, while the range of extreme maximum values was 70-100%. Larger truncheons (>22.5 mm diameter) had almost double the survivorship (ca. 45%) than smaller truncheons (< 15 mm) (ca. 25%). Planting large, untreated truncheons at 1 m intervals-as opposed to 2 m intervals recommended in the current restoration protocol-resulted in no significant change in survivorship. The application of rooting hormone and water at planting had no significant effect on restoration success for both large and small truncheons. While our results do not provide an evidence base for changing the current spekboom planting protocol, we recommend research on the financial and economic costs and benefits of different propagation strategies in real-world contexts.

Pooling biodiversity offsets to improve habitat connectivity and species conservation

Land developers can apply biodiversity offsetting in different ways, from a project-by-project approach to a pooled and proactive approach, this latter appearing to provide greater advantages both in terms of implementation and of the No Net Loss objective. Incorporating landscape connectivity into the mitigation hierarchy is commonly recommended, but the benefits of pooling and anticipating offsets have never really been demonstrated from modeling approaches. Here, we compare connectivity gains from two different offsetting scenarios, when interconnections at offset sites are taken and not taken into account. Assuming that gains can be increased by optimizing the location of offsets, we identified sites where biodiversity offsetting generates the greatest ecological gains in habitat connectivity. The method was applied to a study case in the suburbs of Lyon (Southern France) using several representative species and the landscape functional connectivity model Graphab. Pooling biodiversity offsets led to additional gains in overall habitat connectivity of +103% on average, which we show can be further improved (+8%) by using a patch addition process available in Graphab to plan spatially and ecologically coherent offsetting areas. Pooling and anticipating biodiversity offsets in this way can help preserve the biodiversity and the functionality of natural environments at the territorial scale.

Reviewing the Use of Resilience Concepts in Forest Sciences

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Resilience is a key concept to deal with an uncertain future in forestry. In recent years, it has received increasing attention from both research and practice. However, a common understanding of what resilience means in a forestry context and how to operationalise it is lacking. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the recent forest science literature on resilience in the forestry context, synthesizing how resilience is defined and assessed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Based on a detailed review of 255 studies, we analysed how the concepts of engineering resilience, ecological resilience and social-ecological resilience are used in forest sciences. A clear majority of the studies applied the concept of engineering resilience, quantifying resilience as the recovery time after a disturbance. The two most used indicators for engineering resilience were basal area increment and vegetation cover, whereas ecological resilience studies frequently focus on vegetation cover and tree density. In contrast, important social-ecological resilience indicators used in the literature are socioeconomic diversity and stock of natural resources. In the context of global change, we expected an increase in studies adopting the more holistic social-ecological resilience concept, but this was not the observed trend.

SUMMARY

Our analysis points to the nestedness of these three resilience concepts, suggesting that they are complementary rather than contradictory. It also means that the variety of resilience approaches does not need to be an obstacle for operationalisation of the concept. We provide guidance for choosing the most suitable resilience concept and indicators based on the management, disturbance and application context.

An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Flexible Efficient Cognition for Persistent Sustainable Production

Amidst certainty, efficiency can improve sustainability by reducing resource consumption. However, flexibility is needed to be able to survive when uncertainty increases. Apropos, sustainable production cannot persist in the long-term without having both flexibility and efficiency. Referring to cognitive science to inform the development of production systems is well established. However, recent research in cognitive science encompassing flexibility and efficiency in brain functioning have not been considered previously. In particular, research by others that encompasses information (I), information entropy (H), relative entropy (D), transfer entropy (TE), and brain entropy. By contrast, in this paper, flexibility and efficiency for persistent sustainable production is analyzed in relation to these information theory applications in cognitive science and is quantified in terms of information. Thus, this paper is consistent with the established practice of referring to cognitive science to inform the development of production systems. However, it is novel in addressing the need to combine flexibility and efficiency for persistent sustainability in terms of cognitive functioning as modelled with information theory.

Environmental mitigation hierarchy and biodiversity offsets revisited through habitat connectivity modelling

Biodiversity loss is accelerating because of unceasing human activity and land clearing for development projects (urbanisation, transport infrastructure, mining and quarrying …). Environmental policy-makers and managers in different countries worldwide have proposed the mitigation hierarchy to ensure the goal of "no net loss (NNL) of biodiversity" and have included this principle in environmental impact assessment processes. However, spatial configuration is hardly ever taken into account in the mitigation hierarchy even though it would greatly benefit from recent developments in habitat connectivity modelling incorporating landscape graphs. Meanwhile, national, European and international commitments have been made to maintain and restore the connectivity of natural habitats to face habitat loss and fragmentation. Our objective is to revisit the mitigation hierarchy and to suggest a methodological framework for evaluating the environmental impact of development projects, which includes a landscape connectivity perspective. We advocate the use of the landscape connectivity metric equivalent connectivity (EC), which is based on the original concept of "amount of reachable habitat". We also refine the three main levels of the mitigation hierarchy (impact avoidance, reduction and offset) by integrating a landscape connectivity aspect. We applied this landscape connectivity framework to a simple, virtual habitat network composed of 14 patches of varying sizes. The mitigation hierarchy was addressed through graph theory and EC and several scenarios of impact avoidance, reduction and compensation were tested. We present the benefits of a habitat connectivity framework for the mitigation hierarchy, provide practical recommendations to implement this framework and show its use in real case studies that had previously been restricted to one or two steps of the mitigation hierarchy. We insist on the benefits of a habitat connectivity framework for the mitigation hierarchy and for ecological equivalence assessment. In particular, we demonstrate why it is risky to use a standard offset ratio (the ratio between the amount of area negatively impacted and the compensation area) without performing a connectivity analysis that includes the landscape surrounding the zone impacted by the project. We also discuss the limitations of the framework and suggest potential improvements. Lastly, we raise concerns about the need to rethink the strategy for biodiversity protection. Given that wild areas and semi-natural habitats are becoming scarcer, in particular in industrialised countries, we are convinced that the real challenge is to quickly reconsider the current vision of "developing first, then assessing the ecological damage", and instead urgently adopt an upstream protection strategy that would identify and protect the land that must not be lost if we wish to maintain viable species populations and ecological corridors allowing them the mobility necessary to their survival.

Piloting restoration initiatives in subtropical scrub forest: specifying areas asserting adaptive management

Subtropical scrub forests in Pakistan have diminished by about 75% over the last hundred years, mainly due to indiscriminate exploitation and invasion by exotics species. Lack of initiatives, awareness, and research in utilizing the techniques used for accelerating natural forest succession is resulting in further degradation of the remaining forests. To promote active restoration with local communities and governmental authorities, a restoration scheme was piloted between 2010 and 2016 to examine enrichment population effects. Over 4,000 saplings of two woody climax species, Acacia modesta and Olea ferruginea, raised from seeds of local provenance, were planted in three subjectively selected trial plots representing various stages of degradation, covering a total area of about 4 ha. The results showed an overall 46% survival rate, accompanied by natural regeneration. Comparative analyses of the trial plots have shown variations which were strongly site specific, in addition, it also helped in gauging compliance of the site coordinators in implementing restoration measures as an effective management tool. This study provided an opportunity to appreciate the differences in terms of interventions used for implementing ecological restoration across landscape in the degraded scrub forests.

Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico

The loss of temperate forests of Mexico has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. This study analyzes land use/land cover change scenarios, using satellite images from the Landsat sensor. Images corresponded to the years 1990, 2005 and 2017. The scenarios were applied for the temperate forests with the aim of getting a better understanding of the patterns in land use/land cover changes. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) multispectral classification technique served to determine the land use/land cover types, which were validated through the Kappa Index. For the simulation of land use/land cover dynamics, a model developed in Dinamica-EGO was used, which uses stochastic models of Markov Chains, Cellular Automata and Weight of Evidences. For the study, a stationary, an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario were proposed. The projections based on the three scenarios were simulated for the year 2050. Five types of land use/land cover were identified and evaluated. They were primary forest, secondary forest, human settlements, areas without vegetation and water bodies. Results from the land use/land cover change analysis show a substantial gain for the secondary forest. The surface area of the primary forest was reduced from 55.8% in 1990 to 37.7% in 2017. Moreover, the three projected scenarios estimate further losses of the surface are for the primary forest, especially under the stationary and pessimistic scenarios. This highlights the importance and probably urgent implementation of conservation and protection measures to preserve these ecosystems and their services. Based on the accuracy obtained and on the models generated, results from these methodologies can serve as a decision tool to contribute to the sustainable management of the natural resources of a region.

Potential Effects of Future Climate Changes on Brazilian Cool-Adapted Stoneflies (Insecta: Plecoptera)

The continuous pursuit of welfare and economic development through the exploitation of natural resources by human societies consequently resulted in the ongoing process of climate change. Changes in the distribution of species towards the planet's poles and mountain tops are some of the expected to biological consequences of this process. Here, we assessed the potential effects of future climate change on four cool-adapted Gripopterygidae (Insecta: Plecoptera) species [Gripopteryx garbei Navás 1936, G. cancellata (Pictet 1841), Tupiperla gracilis (Burmeister 1839), and T. tessellata (Brauer 1866)] from Southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. As species adapted to cold conditions, in the future scenarios of climate change, we expected these organisms to shrink/change their distributions ranges towards areas with suitable climatic conditions in Southern Brazilian regions, when compared with their predicted distributions in present climatic conditions. We used seven principal components derived from 19 environmental variables from Worldclim database for the present scenario and also seven principal components obtained from 17 different Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), considering the most severe emission scenario for green-house gases to predict the species' distributions. Depending on the climatic scenario considered, there were polewards distribution range changes of the species. Additionally, we also observed an important decrease in the amount of protected modeled range for the species in the future scenarios. Considering that this Brazilian region may become hotter in the future and have its precipitation regime changed, as observed in the severe 2013-2014 drought, we believe these species adapted to high altitudes will be severely threatened in the future.

Diagnóstico do conhecimento da biodiversidade de plantas vasculares nas unidades de conservação do estado de São Paulo

Resumo Com base em dados publicados sobre a ocorrência de espécies de plantas vasculares no estado de São Paulo, avaliamos a performance das unidades de conservação (UCs) na proteção dessas espécies, considerando especialmente aquelas endêmicas do estado e as ameaçadas de extinção. Das 648 espécies de samambaias e licófitas no estado, 71% ocorrem em UCs, 10 são endêmicas de São Paulo e 30 estão ameaçadas de extinção. Pouco menos da metade das espécies de samambaias e licófitas ameaçadas não foram registradas em UCs, e três são endêmicas do estado. Para as plantas com semente, das 8.521 espécies registradas, 48% ocorrem em UCs, 361 são endêmicas do estado e 676 estão ameaçadas de extinção. Entretanto, 65% das espécies ameaçadas estão desprotegidas, e 51 destas são endêmicas do estado, a maioria nativa da Mata Atlântica. Muitas UCs ainda possuem grande lacuna de conhecimento sobre a flora, de esforço de coleta de material botânico e de registro em herbários, com destaque para as Reservas Particulares do Patrimônio Natural (RPPNs). Nossos dados reforçam a necessidade de ampliação de coletas botânicas em UCs, bem como a criação de novas áreas no estado, a fim de proteger espécies ameaçadas e endêmicas da flora paulista.

Unfolding additional massive cutback effects of the Native Vegetation Protection Law on Legal Reserves, Brazil

Abstract: The Native Vegetation Protection Law - 2012 - (NVPL) is the main Brazilian regulation for protecting native vegetation (NV) on private land. The NVPL, currently in the implementation phase, reduced Legal Reserves (LR) requirements compared to its previous version, the 1965's Forest Act (FA), through several legal mechanisms. Among them, Article 68 (Art.68) exempts landholders from LR obligations if NV was converted without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion. The technical implementation of Art. 68 is controversial and its effects are still unknown. We developed a model to estimate the effects of Art.68 on LR using São Paulo State (Brazil) as case study. We analyzed former environmental laws to identify key periods in which NV preservation requirements had changed. After, we searched for past spatial data on NV cover with sufficient accuracy for each legal benchmark. Combining legal benchmarks with spatial data, we created two scenarios for Art.68 effects, plus a baseline scenario. The first scenario considered a single legal benchmark, the 1965's FA (scenario "1965"), while the other included the 1989 Cerrado's protection Federal Law as a second benchmark (scenario "1965/89"). The baseline scenario did not include Art.68 effects. Scenario "1965" reduced LR deficits in 49% compared to the baseline scenario, waiving landholders from restoration or offsetting needs in 423 thousand hectares (kha) of NV. Scenario "1965/89" waved 507 kha of NV from restoration needs and represented a 59% reduction in LR deficit compared to the baseline scenario. The LR reduction by scenario "1965/89" assumed particular importance considering that the additional cutback was concentrated on Cerrado, an already very fragmented and impacted region. Together with reductions from other NVPL rules, the additional effects of Art. 68 unfolded great concerns about the role of LR as a tool for NV preservation on private land, threating governmental restoration commitments, and pointing that conservation command and control approaches should be complemented with incentive policies to achieve the desired and committed standards.