Optimal information networks: Application for data-driven integrated health in populations

Projecting the response of ecological risk to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC), leading to ecosystem service (ES) degradation and further ecological risks. Ecological risks are particularly serious in ecologically fragile regions because trade-offs between economic development and ecological protection are prominent. Thus, ways in which to assess the response of ecological risks to LULC change under each development scenario in ecologically fragile regions remain challenging. In this study, future LUCC and its impact on ESs under four development scenarios in 2040 in western Jilin Province were predicted using a patch-generating land use simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. Ecological risk was assessed based on future LUCC possibilities, and potential ES degradation and potential drivers of ecological risks were explored using a geographic detector. The results showed that the cropland development scenario (CDS) would experience large-scale urbanization and cropland expansion. Carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and water purification (WP) degraded the most under the CDS, and grain yield (GY) and water yield (WY) degraded the most under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The LUCC probability under the CDS (14.37 %) was the highest, while the LUCC probability under the comprehensive development scenario (CPDS) (8.68 %) was the lowest. The risk of WP degradation was greatest under the CDS, but the risk of soil retention (SR) degradation was greatest under the natural development scenario (NDS), EPS, and CPDS. Ecological risk coverage was the largest (98.04 %), and ecological risks were the highest (0.21) under the CDS, while those under the EPS were the opposite. Distance to roads and population density had a higher impact on ecological risks than other drivers. Further attention should be given to the ecological networks and pattern establishment in urbanized regions. This study will contribute to risk prevention and sustainable urban and agricultural development.

The Entropy of Entropy: Are We Talking about the Same Thing?

In the last few decades, the number of published papers that include search terms such as thermodynamics, entropy, ecology, and ecosystems has grown rapidly. Recently, background research carried out during the development of a paper on "thermodynamics in ecology" revealed huge variation in the understanding of the meaning and the use of some of the central terms in this field-in particular, entropy. This variation seems to be based primarily on the differing educational and scientific backgrounds of the researchers responsible for contributions to this field. Secondly, some ecological subdisciplines also seem to be better suited and applicable to certain interpretations of the concept than others. The most well-known seems to be the use of the Boltzmann-Gibbs equation in the guise of the Shannon-Weaver/Wiener index when applied to the estimation of biodiversity in ecology. Thirdly, this tendency also revealed that the use of entropy-like functions could be diverted into an area of statistical and distributional analyses as opposed to real thermodynamic approaches, which explicitly aim to describe and account for the energy fluxes and dissipations in the systems. Fourthly, these different ways of usage contribute to an increased confusion in discussions about efficiency and possible telos in nature, whether at the developmental level of the organism, a population, or an entire ecosystem. All the papers, in general, suffer from a lack of clear definitions of the thermodynamic functions used, and we, therefore, recommend that future publications in this area endeavor to achieve a more precise use of language. Only by increasing such efforts it is possible to understand and resolve some of the significant and possibly misleading discussions in this area.

Fully nondestructive analysis of capsaicinoids electrochemistry data with deep neural network enables portable system

Electrochemical methods have been extensively applied for the detection of chemical information from food or other analytes. However, existing electrochemical methods are limited to focusing solely on the absorption peaks and disregard much of the hidden chemical fingerprint information. Consequently, electrochemical sensors are constrained by their ability to detect samples containing multiple source-material mixtures with overlapping constituents. We hypothesized that the target substances can be effectively identified and detected using differential sensor data combined with artificial intelligence (AI). In this study, we developed a novel signal array composed of five metal electrodes and used a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for feature extraction to detect capsaicinoids in stews. Our results indicate that the proposed method achieved satisfactory predictions with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.407 in independent brine samples. This provides a promising strategy and practical approach for the nondestructive analysis of multidimensional electrochemical data of mixed analytes.

Characterizing outbreak vulnerability in a stochastic SIS model with an external disease reservoir

In this article, we take a mathematical approach to the study of population-level disease spread, performing a quantitative and qualitative investigation of an SISκ model which is a susceptible-infectious-susceptible ( SIS ) model with exposure to an external disease reservoir. The external reservoir is non-dynamic, and exposure from the external reservoir is assumed to be proportional to the size of the susceptible population. The full stochastic system is modelled using a master equation formalism. A constant population size assumption allows us to solve for the stationary probability distribution, which is then used to investigate the predicted disease prevalence under a variety of conditions. By using this approach, we quantify outbreak vulnerability by performing the sensitivity analysis of disease prevalence to changing population characteristics. In addition, the shape of the probability density function is used to understand where, in parameter space, there is a transition from disease free, to disease present, and to a disease endemic system state. Finally, we use Kullback–Leibler divergence to compare our semi-analytical results for the SISκ model with more complex susceptible-infectious-recovered ( SIR ) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered ( SEIR ) models.

Modes of information flow in collective cohesion

Pairwise interactions are fundamental drivers of collective behavior-responsible for group cohesion. The abiding question is how each individual influences the collective. However, time-delayed mutual information and transfer entropy, commonly used to quantify mutual influence in aggregated individuals, can result in misleading interpretations. Here, we show that these information measures have substantial pitfalls in measuring information flow between agents from their trajectories. We decompose the information measures into three distinct modes of information flow to expose the role of individual and group memory in collective behavior. It is found that decomposed information modes between a single pair of agents reveal the nature of mutual influence involving many-body nonadditive interactions without conditioning on additional agents. The pairwise decomposed modes of information flow facilitate an improved diagnosis of mutual influence in collectives.

Eco-epidemiological scaling of Leptospirosis: Vulnerability mapping and early warning forecasts

Infectious disease epidemics are plaguing the world and a lot of research is focused on the development of models to reproduce disease dynamics for eco-environmental and biological investigation, and disease management. Leptospirosis is an example of a neglected zoonosis strongly mediated by ecohydrological dynamics with emerging endemic and epidemic patterns worldwide in both animal and human populations. By accounting for large heterogeneities of affected areas we show how exponential endemics and scale-free epidemics are largely predictable and linked to common socio-environmental features via scaling laws with different exponents that inform about vulnerability factors. This led to the development of a novel pattern-oriented integrated model that can be used as an early-warning signal (EWS) tool for endemic-epidemic regime classification, risk determinant attribution, and near real-time forecast of outbreaks. Forecasts are grounded on expected outbreak recurrence time dependent on exceedance probabilities and statistical EWS that sense outbreak onset. A stochastic spatially-explicit model is shown to comprehensively predict outbreak dynamics (early sensing, timing, magnitude, decay, and eco-environmental determinants) and derive a spreading factor characterizing endemics and epidemics, where average over maximum rainfall is the critical factor characterizing disease transitions. Dynamically, case cross-correlation considering neighboring communities senses 2-weeks in advance outbreaks. Eco-environmental scaling relationships highlight how predicted host suitability and topographic index can be used as epidemiological footprints to effectively distinguish and control Leptospirosis regimes and areas dependent on hydro-climatological dynamics as the main trigger. The spatio-temporal scale-invariance of epidemics - underpinning persistent criticality and neutrality or independence among areas - is emphasized by the high accuracy in reproducing sequence and magnitude of cases via reliable surveillance. Further investigations of robustness and universality of eco-environmental determinants are required; nonetheless a comprehensive and computationally simple EWS method for the full characterization of Leptospirosis is provided. The tool is extendable to other climate-sensitive zoonoses to define vulnerability factors and predict outbreaks useful for optimal disease risk prevention and control.

Temperature increase drives critical slowing down of fish ecosystems

Fish ecosystems perform ecological functions that are critically important for the sustainability of marine ecosystems, such as global food security and carbon stock. During the 21st century, significant global warming caused by climate change has created pressing challenges for fish ecosystems that threaten species existence and global ecosystem health. Here, we study a coastal fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, and investigate the relationships between fluctuations of ST, abundance-based species interactions and salient fish biodiversity. Observations show that a local 20% increase in temperature from 2002 to 2014 underpins a long-term reduction in fish diversity (∼25%) played out by some native and invasive species (e.g. Chinese wrasse) becoming exceedingly abundant; this causes a large decay in commercially valuable species (e.g. Japanese anchovy) coupled to an increase in ecological productivity. The fish community is analyzed considering five temperature ranges to understand its atemporal seasonal sensitivity to ST changes, and long-term trends. An optimal information flow model is used to reconstruct species interaction networks that emerge as topologically different for distinct temperature ranges and species dynamics. Networks for low temperatures are more scale-free compared to ones for intermediate (15-20°C) temperatures in which the fish ecosystem experiences a first-order phase transition in interactions from locally stable to metastable and globally unstable for high temperatures states as suggested by abundance-spectrum transitions. The dynamic dominant eigenvalue of species interactions shows increasing instability for competitive species (spiking in summer due to intermediate-season critical transitions) leading to enhanced community variability and critical slowing down despite higher time-point resilience. Native competitive species whose abundance is distributed more exponentially have the highest total directed interactions and are keystone species (e.g. Wrasse and Horse mackerel) for the most salient links with cooperative decaying species. Competitive species, with higher eco-climatic memory and synchronization, are the most affected by temperature and play an important role in maintaining fish ecosystem stability via multitrophic cascades (via cooperative-competitive species imbalance), and as bioindicators of change. More climate-fitted species follow temperature increase causing larger divergence divergence between competitive and cooperative species. Decreasing dominant eigenvalues and lower relative network optimality for warmer oceans indicate fishery more attracted toward persistent oscillatory states, yet unpredictable, with lower cooperation, diversity and fish stock despite the increase in community abundance due to non-commercial and venomous species. We emphasize how changes in species interaction organization, primarily affected by temperature fluctuations, are the backbone of biodiversity dynamics and yet for functional diversity in contrast to taxonomic richness. Abundance and richness manifest gradual shifts while interactions show sudden shift. The work provides data-driven tools for analyzing and monitoring fish ecosystems under the pressure of global warming or other stressors. Abundance and interaction patterns derived by network-based analyses proved useful to assess ecosystem susceptibility and effective change, and formulate predictive dynamic information for science-based fishery policy aimed to maintain marine ecosystems stable and sustainable.

Analysis of carbon emission performance and regional differences in China's eight economic regions: Based on the super-efficiency SBM model and the Theil index

China's carbon emission performance has significant regional heterogeneity. Identified the sources of carbon emission performance differences and the influence of various driving factors in China's eight economic regions accurately is the premise for realizing China's carbon emission reduction goals. Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017, the super-efficiency SBM model and Malmquist model are constructed in this paper to measure regional carbon emission performance's static and dynamic changes. After that, the Theil index is used to distinguish the impact of inter-regional and intra-regional differences on different regions' carbon emissions performance. Finally, by introducing the Tobit model, the effect of various driving factors on carbon emission performance differences is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that: (1) There are significant differences in different regions' carbon emission performance, but the overall carbon emission performance presents an upward fluctuation trend. Malmquist index decomposition results show substantial differences in technology progress index and technology efficiency index in different regions, leading to significant carbon emission performance differences. (2) Overall, inter-regional differences contribute the most to the overall carbon emission performance, up to more than 80%. Among them, the inter-regional and intra-regional differences in ERMRYR contributed significantly. (3) Through Tobit regression analysis, it is found that residents' living standards, urbanization level, ecological development degree, and industrial structure positively affect carbon emission performance. On the contrary, energy intensity presents an apparent negative correlation on carbon emission performance. Therefore, to improve the carbon emission performance, we should put forward targeted suggestions according to the characteristics of different regional development stages, regional carbon emission differences, and influencing driving factors.

Inferring ecosystem networks as information flows

The detection of causal interactions is of great importance when inferring complex ecosystem functional and structural networks for basic and applied research. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) based on nonlinear state-space reconstruction made substantial progress about network inference by measuring how well historical values of one variable can reliably estimate states of other variables. Here we investigate the ability of a developed optimal information flow (OIF) ecosystem model to infer bidirectional causality and compare that to CCM. Results from synthetic datasets generated by a simple predator-prey model, data of a real-world sardine-anchovy-temperature system and of a multispecies fish ecosystem highlight that the proposed OIF performs better than CCM to predict population and community patterns. Specifically, OIF provides a larger gradient of inferred interactions, higher point-value accuracy and smaller fluctuations of interactions and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\alpha$$\end{document}α-diversity including their characteristic time delays. We propose an optimal threshold on inferred interactions that maximize accuracy in predicting fluctuations of effective \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\alpha$$\end{document}α-diversity, defined as the count of model-inferred interacting species. Overall OIF outperforms all other models in assessing predictive causality (also in terms of computational complexity) due to the explicit consideration of synchronization, divergence and diversity of events that define model sensitivity, uncertainty and complexity. Thus, OIF offers a broad ecological information by extracting predictive causal networks of complex ecosystems from time-series data in the space-time continuum. The accurate inference of species interactions at any biological scale of organization is highly valuable because it allows to predict biodiversity changes, for instance as a function of climate and other anthropogenic stressors. This has practical implications for defining optimal ecosystem management and design, such as fish stock prioritization and delineation of marine protected areas based on derived collective multispecies assembly. OIF can be applied to any complex system and used for model evaluation and design where causality should be considered as non-linear predictability of diverse events of populations or communities.

Identification of the Framingham Risk Score by an Entropy-Based Rule Model for Cardiovascular Disease

Since 2001, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has had the second-highest mortality rate, about 15,700 people per year, in Taiwan. It has thus imposed a substantial burden on medical resources. This study was triggered by the following three factors. First, the CVD problem reflects an urgent issue. A high priority has been placed on long-term therapy and prevention to reduce the wastage of medical resources, particularly in developed countries. Second, from the perspective of preventive medicine, popular data-mining methods have been well learned and studied, with excellent performance in medical fields. Thus, identification of the risk factors of CVD using these popular techniques is a prime concern. Third, the Framingham risk score is a core indicator that can be used to establish an effective prediction model to accurately diagnose CVD. Thus, this study proposes an integrated predictive model to organize five notable classifiers: the rough set (RS), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and support vector machine (SVM), with a novel use of the Framingham risk score for attribute selection (i.e., F-attributes first identified in this study) to determine the key features for identifying CVD. Verification experiments were conducted with three evaluation criteria-accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity-based on 1190 instances of a CVD dataset available from a Taiwan teaching hospital and 2019 examples from a public Framingham dataset. Given the empirical results, the SVM showed the best performance in terms of accuracy (99.67%), sensitivity (99.93%), and specificity (99.71%) in all F-attributes in the CVD dataset compared to the other listed classifiers. The RS showed the highest performance in terms of accuracy (85.11%), sensitivity (86.06%), and specificity (85.19%) in most of the F-attributes in the Framingham dataset. The above study results support novel evidence that no classifier or model is suitable for all practical datasets of medical applications. Thus, identifying an appropriate classifier to address specific medical data is important. Significantly, this study is novel in its calculation and identification of the use of key Framingham risk attributes integrated with the DT technique to produce entropy-based decision rules of knowledge sets, which has not been undertaken in previous research. This study conclusively yielded meaningful entropy-based knowledgeable rules in tree structures and contributed to the differentiation of classifiers from the two datasets with three useful research findings and three helpful management implications for subsequent medical research. In particular, these rules provide reasonable solutions to simplify processes of preventive medicine by standardizing the formats and codes used in medical data to address CVD problems. The specificity of these rules is thus significant compared to those of past research.

Science-Driven Societal Transformation, Part II: Motivation and Strategy

Climate change, biodiversity loss, and other well-known social and environmental problems pose grave risks. Progress has been insufficient, and as a result, scientists, global policy experts, and the general public increasingly conclude that bold change is required. At least two kinds of bold change are conceivable: reform of existing societal systems (e.g., financial, economic, and governance systems), including their institutions, policies, and priorities; and transformation, understood here as the de novo development of and migration to new and improved systems. The latter has barely been explored in the scientific literature and is the focus of this concept paper. The main theses explored are that transformation is prudent, given risks, attractive, given potential benefits, and achievable, given political, social, and financial constraints. A body of literature is cited in support, but that body is necessarily small given the novelty of the topic. In particular, there are almost no papers in the scientific literature addressing the “how to?” of transformation, a central theme of this paper. Thus, this paper serves in part to raise topics and bring attention to possibilities and new directions.

Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City

Epidemiological models usually contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is customary to employ only point estimators of model parameters for such predictions. However, some models may fit the same data reasonably well for a broad range of parameter values, and this flexibility means that predictions stemming from them will vary widely, depending on the particular values employed within the range that gives a good fit. When data are poor or incomplete, model uncertainty widens further. A way to circumvent this problem is to use Bayesian statistics to incorporate observations and use the full range of parameter estimates contained in the posterior distribution to adjust for uncertainties in model predictions. Specifically, given an epidemiological model and a probability distribution for observations, we use the posterior distribution of model parameters to generate all possible epidemic curves, whose information is encapsulated in posterior predictive distributions. From these, one can extract the worst-case scenario and study the impact of implementing contingency plans according to this assessment. We apply this approach to the evolution of COVID-19 in Mexico City and assess whether contingency plans are being successful and whether the epidemiological curve has flattened.

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

Emerging Priorities for Microbiome Research

Microbiome research has increased dramatically in recent years, driven by advances in technology and significant reductions in the cost of analysis. Such research has unlocked a wealth of data, which has yielded tremendous insight into the nature of the microbial communities, including their interactions and effects, both within a host and in an external environment as part of an ecological community. Understanding the role of microbiota, including their dynamic interactions with their hosts and other microbes, can enable the engineering of new diagnostic techniques and interventional strategies that can be used in a diverse spectrum of fields, spanning from ecology and agriculture to medicine and from forensics to exobiology. From June 19-23 in 2017, the NIH and NSF jointly held an Innovation Lab on Quantitative Approaches to Biomedical Data Science Challenges in our Understanding of the Microbiome. This review is inspired by some of the topics that arose as priority areas from this unique, interactive workshop. The goal of this review is to summarize the Innovation Lab's findings by introducing the reader to emerging challenges, exciting potential, and current directions in microbiome research. The review is broken into five key topic areas: (1) interactions between microbes and the human body, (2) evolution and ecology of microbes, including the role played by the environment and microbe-microbe interactions, (3) analytical and mathematical methods currently used in microbiome research, (4) leveraging knowledge of microbial composition and interactions to develop engineering solutions, and (5) interventional approaches and engineered microbiota that may be enabled by selectively altering microbial composition. As such, this review seeks to arm the reader with a broad understanding of the priorities and challenges in microbiome research today and provide inspiration for future investigation and multi-disciplinary collaboration.

Information Transfer between Stock Market Sectors: A Comparison between the USA and China

Information diffusion within financial markets plays a crucial role in the process of price formation and the propagation of sentiment and risk. We perform a comparative analysis of information transfer between industry sectors of the Chinese and the USA stock markets, using daily sector indices for the period from 2000 to 2017. The information flow from one sector to another is measured by the transfer entropy of the daily returns of the two sector indices. We find that the most active sector in information exchange (i.e., the largest total information inflow and outflow) is the non-bank financial sector in the Chinese market and the technology sector in the USA market. This is consistent with the role of the non-bank sector in corporate financing in China and the impact of technological innovation in the USA. In each market, the most active sector is also the largest information sink that has the largest information inflow (i.e., inflow minus outflow). In contrast, we identify that the main information source is the bank sector in the Chinese market and the energy sector in the USA market. In the case of China, this is due to the importance of net bank lending as a signal of corporate activity and the role of energy pricing in affecting corporate profitability. There are sectors such as the real estate sector that could be an information sink in one market but an information source in the other, showing the complex behavior of different markets. Overall, these findings show that stock markets are more synchronized, or ordered, during periods of turmoil than during periods of stability.

Indicators for the Planning and Management of Urban Green Spaces: A Focus on Public Areas in Padua, Italy

Green spaces and trees are fundamental for the sustainability of cities. The use of management and planning indicators for green spaces, including urban forests, have been proposed, but are rarely applied and their potential to provide ecological, social, and economic benefits is usually overlooked by policy makers and managers. Here, we apply a set of indicators describing green spaces and their variability in different urban units within the Basso Isonzo, an area of the city of Padua (northern Italy). Eleven indicators were selected based on their capacity to consider availability, accessibility and the preservation or increase of urban green spaces and tree cover. The value of indicators was standardized and enabled to have five classes indicating increasing performance. The study indicates green spaces’ heterogeneous conditions. Interestingly, the indicators commonly change moving from the city center to the outskirts. Monitoring through these indicators will enable understanding whether specific management and planning targets are met and, in the absence of these targets, identifying main trends over time. The proposed approach and indicators applied are simple to collect, analyze, and convey information. The indicators are related to relevant social, economic and ecological conditions pertaining to green spaces. The proposed indicators can therefore be used as a simple tool to guide decision-making with the aim of enhancing green spaces.

Assessment of Area-Level Disease Control and Surveillance Vulnerabilities: An Application to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil

The large number of activities contributing to zoonoses surveillance and control capability, on both human and animal domains, and their likely heterogeneous implementation across administrative units make assessment and comparisons of capability performance between such units a complex task. Such comparisons are important to identify gaps in capability development, which could lead to clusters of vulnerable areas, and to rank and subsequently prioritize resource allocation toward the least capable administrative units. Area-level preparedness is a multidimensional entity and, to the best of our knowledge, there is no consensus on a single comprehensive indicator, or combination of indicators, in a summary metric. We use Bayesian spatial factor analysis models to jointly estimate and rank disease control and surveillance capabilities against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) at the municipality level in Brazil. The latent level of joint capability is informed by four variables at each municipality, three reflecting efforts to monitor and control the disease in humans, and one variable informing surveillance capability on the reservoir, the domestic dog. Because of the large volume of missing data, we applied imputation techniques to allow production of comprehensive rankings. We were able to show the application of these models to this sparse dataset and present a ranked list of municipalities based on their overall VL capability. We discuss improvements to our models, and additional applications.

Hybrid Group MCDM Model to Select the Most Effective Alternative of the Second Runway of the Airport

Sustainable and efficient development is one of the most critical challenges facing modern society if it wants to save the world for future generations. Airports are an integral part of human activity. They need to be adapted to meet current and future sustainable needs and provide useful services to the public, taking into account prospects and requirements. Many performance criteria need to be assessed to address issues that often conflict with each other and have different units of measurement. The importance of the criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of alternatives varies. Besides, the implementation of such decisions has different—not precisely described in advance—effects on the interests of different groups in society. Some criteria are defined using different scales. Stakeholders could only evaluate the implemented project alternatives for efficiency throughout the project life cycle. It is essential to find alternative assessment models and adapt them to the challenges. The use of hybrid group multi-criteria decision-making models is one of the most appropriate ways to model such problems. This article presents a real application of the original model to choose the best second runway alternative of the airport.

Optimal Microbiome Networks: Macroecology and Criticality

The human microbiome is an extremely complex ecosystem considering the number of bacterial species, their interactions, and its variability over space and time. Here, we untangle the complexity of the human microbiome for the Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) that is the most prevalent functional gastrointestinal disorder in human populations. Based on a novel information theoretic network inference model, we detected potential species interaction networks that are functionally and structurally different for healthy and unhealthy individuals. Healthy networks are characterized by a neutral symmetrical pattern of species interactions and scale-free topology versus random unhealthy networks. We detected an inverse scaling relationship between species total outgoing information flow, meaningful of node interactivity, and relative species abundance (RSA). The top ten interacting species are also the least relatively abundant for the healthy microbiome and the most detrimental. These findings support the idea about the diminishing role of network hubs and how these should be defined considering the total outgoing information flow rather than the node degree. Macroecologically, the healthy microbiome is characterized by the highest Pareto total species diversity growth rate, the lowest species turnover, and the smallest variability of RSA for all species. This result challenges current views that posit a universal association between healthy states and the highest absolute species diversity in ecosystems. Additionally, we show how the transitory microbiome is unstable and microbiome criticality is not necessarily at the phase transition between healthy and unhealthy states. We stress the importance of considering portfolios of interacting pairs versus single node dynamics when characterizing the microbiome and of ranking these pairs in terms of their interactions (i.e., species collective behavior) that shape transition from healthy to unhealthy states. The macroecological characterization of the microbiome is useful for public health and disease diagnosis and etiognosis, while species-specific analyses can detect beneficial species leading to personalized design of pre- and probiotic treatments and microbiome engineering.

Demographic Inequities in Health Outcomes and Air Pollution Exposure in the Atlanta Area and its Relationship to Urban Infrastructure

Environmental burdens such as air pollution are inequitably distributed with groups of lower socioeconomic statuses, which tend to comprise of large proportions of racial minorities, typically bearing greater exposure. Such groups have also been shown to present more severe health outcomes which can be related to adverse pollution exposure. Air pollution exposure, especially in urban areas, is usually impacted by the built environment, such as major roadways, which can be a significant source of air pollution. This study aims to examine inequities in prevalence of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in the Atlanta metropolitan region as they relate to exposure to air pollution and characteristics of the built environment. Census tract level data were obtained from multiple sources to model health outcomes (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke), pollution exposure (particulate matter and nitrogen oxides), demographics (ethnicity and proportion of elderly residents), and infrastructure characteristics (tree canopy cover, access to green space, and road intersection density). Conditional autoregressive models were fit to the data to account for spatial autocorrelation among census tracts. The statistical model showed areas with majority African-American populations had significantly higher exposure to both air pollutants and higher prevalence of each disease. When considering univariate associations between pollution and health outcomes, the only significant association existed between nitrogen oxides and COPD being negatively correlated. Greater percent tree canopy cover and green space access were associated with higher prevalence of COPD, CHD, and stroke. Overall, in considering health outcomes in connection with pollution exposure infrastructure and ethnic demographics, demographics remained the most significant explanatory variable.

Use of the PVM Method Computed in Vector Space of Increments in Decision Aiding Related to Urban Development

The paper presents a possibility to use a new PVM-VSI (Preference Vector Method computed in Vector Space of Increments) method in making decisions that demand that different variants should be considered, while being evaluated with respect to different criteria. Hence, knowledge about them is a must, and that knowledge is not necessarily available quantitatively, whereas the very evaluation should be relatively objective; that is, independent from the decision maker’s preferences or opinions. The paper presents the use of the PVM-VSI method in support decisions related to urban development—to rank projects submitted for implementation within the framework of a citizen budget. The ranking will make it feasible to determine which of the submitted projects will have the dominant influence on the town’s sustainable development, and, subsequently, which ones should be presented to citizens as the better ones out of the projects submitted, and to compare the method mentioned with methods used in similar decision-making problems in the past: Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), and Fuzzy PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment of Evaluation).

Examining the Impacts of Urban Form on Air Pollution in Developing Countries: A Case Study of China's Megacities

Urban form is increasingly being identified as an important determinant of air pollution in developed countries. However, the effect of urban form on air pollution in developing countries has not been adequately addressed in the literature to date, which points to an evident omission in current literature. In order to fill this gap, this study was designed to estimate the impacts of urban form on air pollution for a panel made up of China's five most rapidly developing megacities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Guangzhou) using time series data from 2000 to 2012. Using the official Air Pollution Index (API) data, this study developed three quantitative indicators: mean air pollution index (MAPI), air pollution ratio (APR), and continuous air pollution ratio (CAPR), to evaluate air pollution levels. Moreover, seven landscape metrics were calculated for the assessment of urban form based on three aspects (urban size, urban shape irregularity, and urban fragmentation) using remote sensing data. Panel data models were subsequently employed to quantify the links between urban form and air pollution. The empirical results demonstrate that urban expansion surprisingly helps to reduce air pollution. The substitution of clean energy for dirty energy that results from urbanization in China offers a possible explanation for this finding. Furthermore, urban shape irregularity positively correlated with the number of days with polluted air conditions, a result could be explained in terms of the influence of urban geometry on traffic congestion in Chinese cities. In addition, a negative association was identified between urban fragmentation and the number of continuous days of air pollution, indicating that polycentric urban forms should be adopted in order to shorten continuous pollution processes. If serious about achieving the meaningful alleviation of air pollution, decision makers and urban planners should take urban form into account when developing sustainable cities in developing countries like China.