Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

InSAR and machine learning reveal new understanding of coastal subsidence risk in the Yellow River Delta, China

Coastal subsidence is a geological disaster that has devastating consequences. However, an accurate understanding of its risks involves more than simply assessing the amount or rate of land subsidence. The existing methods used to evaluate geological disaster risks depend on extensive data collection, entail substantial workloads, suffer from error estimation challenges, and lack regional adaptability. These limitations prevent us from fully understanding coastal subsidence risks in estuarine deltas. Therefore, in this study, we propose a new subsidence risk assessment method that addresses the challenges of traditional geological risk assessments in terms of spatial coverage, spatiotemporal resolution, and data collection difficulty. First, Sentinel-1 multitemporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (MT-InSAR) and cluster analysis were used to estimate the subsidence hazards. Subsequently, Landsat-8 imagery and a random forest (RF) classifier were used to obtain land use and land cover (LULC), and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to obtain settlement vulnerability. Thereafter, subsidence susceptibility was derived from the sediment layer thickness. By combining subsidence hazard, vulnerability, and susceptibility, the first subsidence risk map with a 30 m resolution was generated. The results showed that 4.54 % of the Yellow River Delta (YRD) area was high-risk, 8.75 % was medium-risk, and 10.14 % was low-risk. Notably, the risk map shows a clear overlap between high-risk and saltwater mining areas in the YRD. The proposed method is expected to improve our understanding of the coastal subsidence risk in estuarine deltas. Considering that the risk in high-value economic areas in the YRD is increasing, whereas the risk in low-value economic areas may change owing to human activity, early preventive measures are required.

Disappearing cities on US coasts

The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25-0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1-3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence-the sinking of coastal land areas4-a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000-273,000 people and 31,000-171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.

Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast

Coastal communities are vulnerable to multihazards, which are exacerbated by land subsidence. On the US east coast, the high density of population and assets amplifies the region's exposure to coastal hazards. We utilized measurements of vertical land motion rates obtained from analysis of radar datasets to evaluate the subsidence-hazard exposure to population, assets, and infrastructure systems/facilities along the US east coast. Here, we show that 2,000 to 74,000 km2 land area, 1.2 to 14 million people, 476,000 to 6.3 million properties, and >50% of infrastructures in major cities such as New York, Baltimore, and Norfolk are exposed to subsidence rates between 1 and 2 mm per year. Additionally, our analysis indicates a notable trend: as subsidence rates increase, the extent of area exposed to these hazards correspondingly decreases. Our analysis has far-reaching implications for community and infrastructure resilience planning, emphasizing the need for a targeted approach in transitioning from reactive to proactive hazard mitigation strategies in the era of climate change.

Spatiotemporal-based automated inundation mapping of Ramsar wetlands using Google Earth Engine

Wetlands are one of the most critical components of an ecosystem, supporting many ecological niches and a rich diversity of flora and fauna. The ecological significance of these sites makes it imperative to study the changes in their inundation extent and propose necessary measures for their conservation. This study analyzes all 64 Ramsar sites in China based on their inundation patterns using Landsat imagery from 1991 to 2020. Annual composites were generated using the short-wave infrared thresholding technique from June to September to create inundation maps. The analysis was carried out on each Ramsar site individually to account for its typical behavior due to regional geographical and climatic conditions. The results of the inundation analysis for each site were subjected to the Mann-Kendall test to determine their trends. The analysis showed that 8 sites exhibited a significantly decreasing trend, while 14 sites displayed a significantly increasing trend. The accuracy of the analysis ranged from a minimum of 72.0% for Hubei Wang Lake to a maximum of 98.0% for Zhangye Heihe Wetland National Nature Reserve. The average overall accuracy of the sites was found to be 90.0%. The findings emphasize the necessity for conservation strategies and policies for Ramsar sites.

Hidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion

The vulnerability of coastal environments to sea-level rise varies spatially, particularly due to local land subsidence. However, high-resolution observations and models of coastal subsidence are scarce, hindering an accurate vulnerability assessment. We use satellite data from 2007 to 2020 to create high-resolution map of subsidence rate at mm-level accuracy for different land covers along the ~3,500 km long US Atlantic coast. Here, we show that subsidence rate exceeding 3 mm per year affects most coastal areas, including wetlands, forests, agricultural areas, and developed regions. Coastal marshes represent the dominant land cover type along the US Atlantic coast and are particularly vulnerable to subsidence. We estimate that 58 to 100% of coastal marshes are losing elevation relative to sea level and show that previous studies substantially underestimate marsh vulnerability by not fully accounting for subsidence.

Does flooding get worse with subsiding land? Investigating the impacts of land subsidence on flood inundation from Hurricane Harvey

As one of the most devastating tropical storms, 2017 Hurricane Harvey caused severe flooding and damage in Houston, Texas. Besides enormous rainfall amount, land subsidence might be another contributing factor to the Harvey flood. However, few studies have numerically quantified the evolvement of land subsidence over decades, largely due to the lack of reliable methods to realistically estimate land subsidence both continuously and at high spatial resolution. Therefore, this study aims to investigate retrospective changes of regional topology due to 117 years (1900 to 2017) of land subsidence and the consequent impacts on flood inundation. Based on continuous land subsidence, we conduct a series of simulations on the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Brays Bayou, Texas using a hydrodynamic/hydraulic model. The results indicate that the overall change of flood depth caused by land subsidence is relatively minor with the flood water deepened by six centimeters per one meter of subsided land at the worst impacted location. The impact from land subsidence on flood depth exhibits strong nonlinearity in time, where effects from previous land subsidence hotspots could be altered by later continuing land subsidence. Spatially, changes in flood depth due to the land subsidence are not only heterogeneous but mixed with coexisting increased and reduced flood depths. The results of this study improve the understanding of the dynamic evolvement of flood inundation due to continuous land subsidence so that better planning can be initiated for sustainable urban development for coastal communities, which is imperative under ongoing climate change and sea level rise.

Land Subsidence Hazard and Building Collapse Risk in the Coastal City of Lagos, West Africa

Every year incidents of building collapse claim many lives and cause enormous financial losses around the world, which are often blamed on low-quality materials, non-compliance with standards, lack of oversight, and failure to enforce building codes. Here, we highlight the role of land subsidence in triggering unprecedented collapses in the city of Lagos, Nigeria, which has reported over 200 casualties during 152 building failures since 2005. We used acquisitions from radar satellites for 2018-2021 and provided data that link subsidence to foundation damage and high building failure risk in the region. We estimate that an area of 5-81 km² and 255-4,000 buildings are exposed to a high to very high risk of collapse for short-term (10 years) to long-term (75 years) periods. Differential land subsidence can trigger building collapse, and the data presented here will enable authorities to create adequate building codes and standards and devise mitigation strategies.

Assessing Land Subsidence-Inducing Factors in the Shandong Province, China, by Using PS-InSAR Measurements

Shandong Province (SDP) experienced serious land subsidence from March 2017 to December 2020. Exploring the response relationships between land subsidence and its inducing factors plays an important role in ensuring the development of the economy and residential safety. Firstly, we applied Persistent Scatterers Interferometric Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) technology to 558 Sentinel-1 images to determine the land subsidence in SDP from March 2017 to December 2020. Secondly, we mosaicked the land subsidence monitoring results of five tracks to obtain a land subsidence map covering the whole SDP and validated the land subsidence monitoring results using Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring results and leveling benchmark monitoring results observed in the same period. Finally, the response relationships between the land subsidence and its inducing factors in SDP were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the PS-InSAR outcomes showed that the land subsidence was widely distributed in SDP and that the maximum land subsidence rate was −298.9 mm/year during the study period. (2) The PS-InSAR monitoring results coincide well with the GPS monitoring results and leveling benchmark monitoring results; the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) values between the PS-InSAR monitoring results and the GPS measurement results and leveling benchmark monitoring results were 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. We found that Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) values between any two adjacent tracks of the mosaic PS-InSAR monitoring results were greater than 0.95, indicating good consistency. (3) The long-term overexploitation of groundwater in middle and deep aquifers and mining of underground mineral resources are the main inducing factors of land subsidence in SDP when considering this problem on a large geographical scale. Moreover, the type of bridge material is an important inducing factor causing the large variation in the land subsidence of the bridge body within a small geographical range. These findings may provide scientific support for land subsidence control measures in SDP.

On the Exploitation of Remote Sensing Technologies for the Monitoring of Coastal and River Delta Regions

Remote sensing technologies are extensively applied to prevent, monitor, and forecast hazardous risk conditions in the present-day global climate change era. This paper presents an overview of the current stage of remote sensing approaches employed to study coastal and delta river regions. The advantages and limitations of Earth Observation technology in characterizing the effects of climate variations on coastal environments are also presented. The role of the constellations of satellite sensors for Earth Observation, collecting helpful information on the Earth’s system and its temporal changes, is emphasized. For some key technologies, the principal characteristics of the processing chains adopted to obtain from the collected raw data added-value products are summarized. Emphasis is put on studying various disaster risks that affect coastal and megacity areas, where heterogeneous and interlinked hazard conditions can severely affect the population.

Potential Sea Level Rise Impacts in Acapulco Diamante, Mexico

The potential impacts of sea level in the study region are presented using the Integrated Procedure for Estimate Sea Level Impacts (IPESLI), made up of Landsat images, official databases, and design software for geographic information systems. IPESLI is useful in areas with little georeferenced and validated information. The sea level projections are based on the climate projections, which incorporate the possible attenuation of the ice sheet near the upper end of Antarctica. Flood risk statistics were used to simulate the frequency of extreme flooding across the planet. The IPESLI was calibrated using seven field visits to compare the height values generated by the digital elevation model against the in situ data. The inundation maps generated in the study can be used to find the most vulnerable areas and initiate decision making for coastal adaptation. The IPESLI procedure has the potential to contribute to the formation of a communication bridge between climate change science and policy makers. The projection is profound for all scenarios, but it is particularly devastating for the Acapulco Diamante area if we start with the worst future climate scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5).

Analysis of the Periodic Component of Vertical Land Motion in the Po Delta (Northern Italy) by GNSS and Hydrological Data

Nowadays, several methodologies, implemented for satellite or terrestrial surveys, reveal that daily and weekly site-positioning time series can exhibit linear trends plus seasonal oscillations. Such periodic components affect the evaluation of subsidence rates and, thus, they must be recognized and properly modelled. In this work, the periodic component of vertical land motion in Po Delta (Northern Italy) is estimated by a multi-component and multi-source procedure recently proposed by some of the authors for studying land subsidence in delta areas. First, land vertical motion data, acquired in the central part of the Po Delta over a six-year time interval, were compared with hydro-meteorological and climate datasets collected from nineteen stations distributed over the entire Delta. Then, four physically based models of the test site were implemented to verify the water pressure- and water mass-dependent processes inferred from the analytical phase. Modelling results show that the annual ground oscillation is better explained by soil moisture change, although river water mass variation gives a relevant contribution to land deformation, especially in the wet periods. Finally, to account for intra-annual processes, the joint contributions of all the inferred sources were treated as a nonlinear problem and solved applying the generalized reduced gradient method. The obtained combination is well supported by statistical parameters and provides the best agreement with the geodetic observations.

Treatment of Tide Gauge Time Series and Marine GNSS Measurements for Vertical Land Motion with Relevance to the Implementation of the Baltic Sea Chart Datum 2000

Tide gauge (TG) time series and GNSS measurements have become standard datasets for various scientific and practical applications. However, the TG and geodetic networks in the Baltic Sea region are deforming due to vertical land motion (VLM), the primary cause of which is the glacial isostatic adjustment. Consequently, a correction for VLM, either obtained from a suitable VLM model or by utilizing space-geodetic techniques, must be applied to ensure compatibility of various data sources. It is common to consider the VLM rate relative to an arbitrary reference epoch, but this also yields that the resulting datasets may not be directly comparable. The common height reference, Baltic Sea Chart Datum 2000 (BSCD2000), has been initiated to facilitate the effective use of GNSS methods for accurate navigation and offshore surveying. The BSCD2000 agrees with the current national height realizations of the Baltic Sea countries. As TGs managed by national authorities are rigorously connected to the national height systems, the TG data can also be used in a common system. Hence, this contribution aims to review the treatment of TG time series for VLM and outline potential error sources for utilizing TG data relative to a common reference. Similar consideration is given for marine GNSS measurements that likewise require VLM correction for some marine applications (such as validating marine geoid models). The described principles are illustrated by analyzing and discussing numerical examples. These include investigations of TG time series and validation of shipborne GNSS determined sea surface heights. The latter employs a high-resolution geoid model and hydrodynamic model-based dynamic topography, which is linked to the height reference using VLM corrected TG data. Validation of the presented VLM corrected marine GNSS measurements yields a 1.7 cm standard deviation and −2.7 cm mean residual. The estimates are 1.9 cm and −10.2 cm, respectively, by neglecting VLM correction. The inclusion of VLM correction thus demonstrates significant improvement toward data consistency. Although the focus is on the Baltic Sea region, the principles described here are also applicable elsewhere.

Spatiotemporal modeling of land subsidence using a geographically weighted deep learning method based on PS-InSAR

The demand for water resources during urbanization forces the continuous exploitation of groundwater, resulting in dramatic piezometric drawdown and inducing regional land subsidence (LS). This has greatly threatened sustainable development in the long run. LS modeling helps understanding the factors responsible for the ongoing loss of land elevation and hence enhances the development of prevention strategies. Data-driven LS models perform well with fewer variables and faster convergence than physically-based hydrogeological models. However, the former models often cannot simultaneously reflect the temporal nonlinearity and spatial correlation (SC) characteristics of LS under complex variables. We proposed a LS spatiotemporal model which considers both nonlinear and spatial correlations between LS and groundwater level change of exploited aquifers. It is based on deep learning method and LS time series detected by permanent scatterer-interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PS-InSAR). The LS time series and hydrogeological properties are constructed as a spatiotemporal dataset for model training. The spatiotemporal LS model, geographically weighted long short-term memory (GW-LSTM), is constructed by integrating SC with LSTM. This latter is a deep recurrent neural network approach incorporating sequential data. The model is validated by a case study in the Beijing plain. The results show that the accuracy of the proposed model can be greatly improved considering the spatial correlation between LS and influencing factors. Furthermore, the comparison between the LSTM and GW-LSTM models reveals that groundwater level variation is not a unique causation of LS in the study area. The developed model deals with the spatiotemporal characteristics of LS under multiple variables and can be used to predict LS under different scenarios of groundwater level variations for the purpose of monitoring and providing evidence to support the prevention of future LS.

Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.

Vertical Land Motion as a Driver of Coastline Changes on a Deltaic System in the Colombian Caribbean

To face and properly mitigate coastal changes at a local level, it is necessary to recognize and characterize the specific processes affecting a coastline. Some of these processes are local (e.g., sediment starvation), while others are regional (e.g., relative sea-level change) or global (e.g., eustatic sea-level rise). Long tide gauge records help establish sea-level trends for a region that accounts for global (eustatic, steric) and regional (isostatic) sea-level changes. Local sea-level changes are also the product of vertical land motion (VLM), varying depending on tectonic, sedimentological, and anthropogenic factors. We investigate the role of coastal land subsidence in the present-day dynamics of an abandoned delta in the Colombian Caribbean. Satellite images and synthetic aperture radar acquisitions are used to assess decadal-scale coastline changes and subsidence rates for the period 2007–2021. We found that subsidence rates are highly variable alongshore. Local subsidence rates of up to −1.0 cm/yr correspond with an area of erosion rates of up to −15 m/yr, but coastal erosion also occurs in sectors where subsidence was not detected. The results highlight that local coastline changes are influenced by multiple, interacting drivers, including sand supply, coastline orientation and engineering structures, and that subsidence alone does not explain the high rates of coastal erosion along the study area. By the end of the century, ongoing coastal erosion rates of up to −25 m/yr, annual rates of subsidence of about −1 cm/yr, and current trends of global sea-level rise are expected to increase flooding levels and jeopardize the existence of the deltaic barrier island.

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21^st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.

As sea levels rise, coasts are being increasingly  threatened by overtopping caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm surge and wave runup. Here the authors find that global coastal overtopping has increased by over 50% in the last two decades, and under a RCP 8.5 scenario this could increase up to 50 times by 2100 compared to today.

The 'wickedness' of governing land subsidence: Policy perspectives from urban Southeast Asia

Drawing on Jakarta, Metro Manila and Singapore as case studies, we explore the paradox of slow political action in addressing subsiding land, particularly along high-density urban coastlines with empirical insights from coastal geography, geodesy analysis, geology, and urban planning. In framing land subsidence as a classic 'wicked' policy problem, and also as a hybrid geological and anthropogenic phenomenon that is unevenly experienced across urban contexts, the paper uses a three-step analysis. First, satellite-derived InSAR maps are integrated with Sentinel-1A data in order to reveal the socio-temporal variability of subsidence rates which in turn pose challenges in uniformly applying regulatory action. Second, a multi-sectoral mapping of diverse policies and practices spanning urban water supply, groundwater extraction, land use zoning, building codes, tenurial security, and land reclamation reveal the extent to which the broader coastal governance landscape remains fragmented and incongruous, particularly in arresting a multi-dimensional phenomenon such as subsidence. Finally, in reference to distinct coastal identities of each city-the 'Sinking Capital' (Jakarta), 'Fortress Singapore', and the 'Disaster Capital' (Manila) the paper illustrates how land subsidence is portrayed across the three metropolises in markedly similar ways: as a reversible, quasi-natural, and/or a highly individualized problem.

Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenario for 2100 along the Coast of South Eastern Sicily (Italy) by InSAR Data, Satellite Images and High-Resolution Topography

The global sea-level rise (SLR) projections for the next few decades are the basis for developing flooding maps that depict the expected hazard scenarios. However, the spatially variable land subsidence has generally not been considered in the current projections. In this study, we use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR) and sea-level data from tidal stations to show the combined effects of land subsidence and SLR along the coast between Catania and Marzamemi, in south-eastern Sicily (southern Italy). This is one of the most active tectonic areas of the Mediterranean basin, which drives accelerated SLR, continuous coastal retreat and increasing effects of flooding and storms surges. We focus on six selected areas, which show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where the expected SLR in the next few years could be a potential cause of significant land flooding and morphological changes of the coastal strip. Through a multidisciplinary study, the multi-temporal flooding scenarios until 2100, have been estimated. Results are based on the spatially variable rates of vertical land movements (VLM), the topographic features of the area provided by airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of SLR in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In addition, from the analysis of the time series of optical satellite images, a coastal retreat up to 70 m has been observed at the Ciane river mouth (Siracusa) in the time span 2001–2019. Our results show a diffuse land subsidence locally exceeding 10 ± 2.5 mm/year in some areas, due to compacting artificial landfill, salt marshes and Holocene soft deposits. Given ongoing land subsidence, a high end of RSLR in the RCP 8.5 at 0.52 ± 0.05 m and 1.52 ± 0.13 m is expected for 2050 AD and 2100 AD, respectively, with an exposed area of about 9.7 km2 that will be vulnerable to inundation in the next 80 years.

Evolving tides aggravate nuisance flooding along the U.S. coastline

Nuisance flooding (NF) is defined as minor, nondestructive flooding that causes substantial, accumulating socioeconomic impacts to coastal communities. While sea-level rise is the main driver for the observed increase in NF events in the United States, we show here that secular changes in tides also contribute. An analysis of 40 tidal gauge records from U.S. coasts finds that, at 18 locations, NF increased due to tidal amplification, while decreases in tidal range suppressed NF at 11 locations. Estuaries show the largest changes in NF attributable to tide changes, and these can often be traced to anthropogenic alterations. Limited long-term measurements from estuaries suggest that the effects of evolving tides are more widespread than the locations considered here. The total number of NF days caused by tidal changes has increased at an exponential rate since 1950, adding ~27% to the total number of NF events observed in 2019 across locations with tidal amplification.

Quantifying the inundation impacts of earthquake-induced surface elevation change by hydrological and hydraulic modeling

Current estimates of flood hazards are often based on the assumption that topography is static. When tectonic and/or anthropogenic processes change the land surface elevation, the spatial patterns of floods might also change. Here, we employ the hydrological and hydraulic modeling to simulate floods in the Kujukuri Plain, Japan, in the years 2004 and 2013, when two severe floods occurred. In between the two floods, land surface elevations were changed by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The effects of land surface elevation changes on inundation areas were quantified by changing input topographies. Our results showed that, without taking into account land surface elevation changes, around 10% of inundation areas were underestimated at the time of flood events in the year 2013. The spatial distribution of inundation locations varied with local topographical features, for example, the areas with backmarsh and valley fill deposits were sensitive to the extent of inundation by land surface elevation changes. The sub-watershed near the coastal shoreline having below-zero meter elevation areas showed that the earthquake-induced land surface elevation changes exacerbated an additional 22% inundation area. This study suggests that the inundation areas will increase in catchments suffering severe settlements, which highlights the necessity of taking into account the spatio-temporal changes of land surface elevations on the assessment of flood hazards.

Assessing anthropogenic risk to sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) for reintroduction into San Francisco Bay

Southern sea otters have been actively managed for their conservation and recovery since listing on the federal Endangered Species Act in 1977. Still, they remain constrained to a geographically small area on the central coast of California relative to their former coast-wide range, with population numbers far below those of the estimated optimal sustainable population size. Species managers have discussed reintroducing southern sea otters into parts of their historic range to facilitate sustained population growth and geographic range expansion. San Francisco Bay (SFB), historically home to several thousand sea otters, is one location identified as a candidate release site for these reintroductions. The return of sea otters to SFB could bring benefits to local ecosystem restoration and tourism, in addition to spurring sea otter population growth to meet recovery goals. However, this is a highly urbanized estuary, so sea otters could also be exposed to serious anthropogenic threats that would challenge a successful reintroduction. In light of these potential detriments we performed a spatially-explicit risk assessment to analyze the suitability of SFB for southern sea otter reintroduction. We looked at threats to sea otters specific to SFB, including: the impacts of vessel traffic from commercial shipping, high-speed ferries, and recreational vessels; environmental contaminants of methylmercury and polychlorinated biphenyls; major oil spills; and commercial fishing. Factors that influenced the relative threat imposed by each stressor included the spatio-temporal extent and intensity of the stressor and its mitigation potential. Our analysis revealed the complex spatial and temporal variation in risk distribution across the SFB. The type and magnitude of anthropogenic risk was not uniformly distributed across the study area. For example, the central SFB housed the greatest cumulative risk, where a high degree of vessel traffic and other stressors occurred in conjunction. The individual stressors that contributed to this risk score varied across different parts of the study area as well. Whereas vessel traffic, particularly of fast ferries, was a high scoring risk factor in in the north and central bay, in the south bay it was environmental contaminants that caused greater risk potential. To help identify areas within the study area that managers might want to target for release efforts, the spatially-explicit risk map revealed pockets of SFB that could provide both suitable habitat and relatively low overall risk. However in some cases these were adjacent or in close proximity to identified high-risk portions of habitat in SFB. This predictive suitability and risk assessment can be used by managers to consider the spatial distribution of potential threats, and risk abatement that may be necessary for sea otters to re-occupy their historic home range in SFB.

Coastal Dam Inundation Assessment for the Yellow River Delta: Measurements, Analysis and Scenario

Coastal dams along the Yellow River Delta are built to prevent seawater intrusion. However, land subsidence caused by significant oil, gas and brine extraction, as well as sediment compaction, could exacerbate the flooding effects of sea-level rise and storm surge. In order to evaluate the coastal dam vulnerability, we combined unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with small baseline subsets (SBAS) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) results to generate an accurate coastal dam digital elevation model (DEM) over the next 10, 30 and 80 years. Sea-level simulation was derived from the relative sea-level rise scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and local long-term tide gauge records. Assuming that the current rate of dam vertical deformation and sea-level rise are linear, we then generated different inundation scenarios by the superposition of DEMs and sea-levels at different periods by way of a bathtub model. We found that the overtopping event would likely occur around Year 2050, and the northern part of the dam would lose its protective capability almost entirely by the end of this century. This article provides an alternative cost-effective method for the detection, extraction and monitoring of coastal artificial infrastructure.

Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea-level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea-level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea-level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea-level observation network-particularly as related to satellite observations-in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea-level change.

Tracking California's sinking coast from space: Implications for relative sea-level rise

Coastal vertical land motion affects projections of sea-level rise, and subsidence exacerbates flooding hazards. Along the ~1350-km California coastline, records of high-resolution vertical land motion rates are scarce due to sparse instrumentation, and hazards to coastal communities are underestimated. Here, we considered a ~100-km-wide swath of land along California's coast and performed a multitemporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis of large datasets, obtaining estimates of vertical land motion rates for California's entire coast at ~100-m dimensions-a ~1000-fold resolution improvement to the previous record. We estimate between 4.3 million and 8.7 million people in California's coastal communities, including 460,000 to 805,000 in San Francisco, 8000 to 2,300,00 in Los Angeles, and 2,000,000 to 2,300,000 in San Diego, are exposed to subsidence. The unprecedented detail and submillimeter accuracy resolved in our vertical land motion dataset can transform the analysis of natural and anthropogenic changes in relative sea-level and associated hazards.

Multi-Component and Multi-Source Approach for Studying Land Subsidence in Deltas

The coupled effects of climate change and land sinking make deltas and coastal areas prone to inundation and flooding, meaning that reliable estimation of land subsidence is becoming crucial. Commonly, land subsidence is monitored by accurate continuous and discrete measurements collected by terrestrial and space geodetic techniques, such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), and high precision leveling. In particular, GNSS, which includes the Global Positioning System (GPS), provides geospatial positioning with global coverage, then used for deriving local displacements through time. These site-positioning time series usually exhibit a linear trend plus seasonal oscillations of annual and semi-annual periods. Although the periodic components observed in the geodetic signal affect the velocity estimate, studies dealing with the prediction and prevention of risks associated with subsidence focus mainly on the permanent component. Periodic components are simply removed from the original dataset by statistical analyses not based on the underlying physical mechanisms. Here, we propose a systematic approach for detecting the physical mechanisms that better explain the permanent and periodic components of subsidence observed in the geodetic time series. It consists of three steps involving a component recognition phase, based on statistical and spectral analyses of geodetic time series, a source selection phase, based on their comparison with data of different nature (e.g., geological, hydro-meteorological, hydrogeological records), and a source validation step, where the selected sources are validated through physically-based models. The application of the proposed procedure to the Codigoro area (Po River Delta, Northern Italy), historically affected by land subsidence, allowed for an accurate estimation of the subsidence rate over the period 2009–2017. Significant differences turn out in the retrieved subsidence velocities by using or not periodic trends obtained by physically based models.

Insar Maps of Land Subsidence and Sea Level Scenarios to Quantify the Flood Inundation Risk in Coastal Cities: The Case of Singapore

Global mean sea level rise associated with global warming has a major impact on coastal areas and represents one of the significant natural hazards. The Asia-Pacific region, which has the highest concentration of human population in the world, represents one of the larger areas on Earth being threatened by the rise of sea level. Recent studies indicate a global sea level of 3.2 mm/yr as measured from 20 years of satellite altimetry. The combined effect of sea level rise and local land subsidence, can be overwhelming for coastal areas. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry technique is used to process a time series of TerraSAR-X images and estimate the land subsidence in the urban area of Singapore. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) measurements are merged to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 sea-level rise scenarios to identify projected inundated areas and provide a map of flood vulnerability. Subsiding rates larger than 5 mm/year are found near the shore on the low flat land, associated to areas recently reclaimed or built. The projected flooded map of Singapore are provided for different sea-level rise scenarios. In this study, we show that local land subsidence can increase the flood vulnerability caused by sea level rise by 2100 projections. This can represent an increase of 25% in the flood area in the central area of Singapore for the RCP4.5 scenario.

Seasonal and Long-Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007-2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS-derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

Transient Deformation in California From Two Decades of GPS Displacements: Implications for a Three-Dimensional Kinematic Reference Frame

Our understanding of plate boundary deformation has been enhanced by transient signals observed against the backdrop of time-independent secular motions. We make use of a new analysis of displacement time series from about 1,000 continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in California from 1999 to 2018 to distinguish tectonic and nontectonic transients from secular motion. A primary objective is to define a high-resolution three-dimensional reference frame (datum) for California that can be rapidly maintained with geodetic data to accommodate both secular and time-dependent motions. To this end, we compare the displacements to those predicted by a horizontal secular fault slip model for the region and construct displacement and strain rate fields. Over the past 19 years, California has experienced 19 geodetically detectable earthquakes and widespread postseismic deformation. We observe postseismic strain rate variations as large as 1,000 nstrain/year with moment releases equivalent up to an Mw6.8 earthquake. We find significant secular differences up to 10 mm/year with the fault slip model, from the Mendocino Triple Junction to the southern Cascadia subduction zone, the northern Basin and Range, and the Santa Barbara channel. Secular vertical uplift is observed across the Transverse Ranges, Coastal Ranges, Sierra Nevada, as well as large-scale postseismic uplift after the 1999 Mw7.1 Hector Mine and 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. We also identify areas of vertical land motions due to anthropogenic, natural, and magmatic processes. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the kinematic datum by improving the accuracy of high-spatial-resolution 12-day repeat-cycle Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar displacement and velocity maps.

A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shallow unconfined coastal aquifers to rise. Rising groundwater can emerge as surface flooding and impact buried infrastructure, soil behavior, human health, and nearshore ecosystems. Higher groundwater can also reduce infiltration rates for stormwater, adding to surface flooding problems. Levees and seawalls may not prevent these impacts. Pumping may accelerate land subsidence rates, thereby exacerbating flooding problems associated with SLR. Public agencies at all jurisdiction levels will need information regarding where groundwater impacts are likely to occur for development and infrastructure planning, as extreme precipitation events combine with SLR to drive more frequent flooding. We used empirical depth-to-water data and a digital elevation model of the San Francisco Bay Area to construct an interpolated surface of estimated minimum depth-to-water for 489 square kilometers along the San Francisco Bay shoreline. This rapid assessment approach identified key locations where more rigorous data collection and dynamic modeling is needed to identify risks and prevent impacts to health, buildings, and infrastructure, and develop adaptation strategies for SLR.

Groundwater Loss and Aquifer System Compaction in San Joaquin Valley During 2012-2015 Drought

California's millennium drought of 2012-2015 severely impacted the Central Valley aquifer system and caused permanent loss of groundwater and aquifer storage capacity. To quantify these impacts within the southern San Joaquin Valley, we analyze various complementary measurements, including gravity changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites; vertical land motion from Global Positioning System, interferometric synthetic aperture radar, and extensometer; and groundwater level records. The interferometric data set acquired by the Sentinel-1 satellite only spans the period January 2015 and October 2017, while the other data sets span the entire drought period. Using GRACE observations, we find an average groundwater loss of 6.1 ± 2.3 km3/year as a lower bound estimate for the San Joaquin Valley, amounting to a total volume of 24.2 ± 9.3 km3 lost during the period October 2011 to September 2015. This is consistent with the total volume of 29.25 ± 8.7 km3, estimated using only Global Positioning System deformation data. Our results highlight the advantage of using vertical land motion data to evaluate groundwater loss and thus fill the gaps between GRACE and GRACE-Follow-On missions and complement their estimates. We further determine that 0.4-3.25% of the aquifer system storage capacity is permanently lost during this drought period. Comparing groundwater level and vertical land motion data following September 2015, we determine an equilibration time of 0.5-1.5 years for groundwater levels within aquitard and aquifer units, during which residual compaction of aquitard and land subsidence continues beyond the drought period. We suggest that such studies can advance the knowledge of evolving groundwater resources, enabling managers and decision makers to better assess water demand and supply during and in-between drought periods.

Deformation of the aquifer system under groundwater level fluctuations and its implication for land subsidence control in the Tianjin coastal region

This study demonstrates characteristics and mechanisms of deformation of an aquifer system in response to seasonal fluctuations of groundwater level when groundwater pumping has been strictly regulated after experiencing longtime land subsidence. Two boreholes with depth of 1226 m (G2 site) and 905 m (G3 site) were drilled at the Tianjin coastal region where severe land subsidence had occurred since the 1950s. Extensometer/piezometer groups installed at the G2 site illustrate synchronized variations of compaction and groundwater level since 2010 in the aquifer system between depth of 100-400 m which contributes most groundwater pumpage. Monitored land subsidence demonstrates that the shallow aquifer has become the main contributor to the land subsidence, and inelastic compaction still occurred in the aquifers where groundwater level has recovered. Pre-consolidation stresses show that clayey soils in depth < 100 m are under-consolidated, and deep clayey soils show the state of normal- to over-consolidation. The effects of the cyclic groundwater level oscillation on deformation were investigated using repeated loading and unloading tests. Void ratio changes in loading/unloading cycles illustrate that inelastic deformation rate decreases gradually and elastic deformation rate remains almost unchanged with increases of cyclic numbers. The deformation of soil samples from 100 to 400 m is mostly elastic for loading stress in the over-consolidation stress range. These findings suggest that groundwater dewatering in the shallow (depth < 100 m) aquifer will be the primary target to control land subsidence. Groundwater level fluctuations higher than pre-consolidation value in 100-400 m only lead to elastic and recoverable deformation even small residual permanent deformation may continue for a long time. The results improve the understanding of deformation in complex urban aquifers affected by groundwater level fluctuations and highlight the importance of city planning management for controlling land subsidence in coastal cities.

Sustained Groundwater Loss in California's Central Valley Exacerbated by Intense Drought Periods

The accelerated rate of decline in groundwater levels across California's Central Valley results from overdrafting and low rates of natural recharge and is exacerbated by droughts. The lack of observations with an adequate spatiotemporal resolution to constrain the evolution of groundwater resources poses severe challenges to water management efforts. Here we present SAR interferometric measurements of high-resolution vertical land motion across the valley, revealing multiscale patterns of aquifer hydrogeological properties and groundwater storage change. Investigating the depletion and degradation of the aquifer-system during 2007-2010, when the entire valley experienced a severe drought, we find that ~2% of total aquifer-system storage was permanently lost, owing to irreversible compaction of the system. Over this period, the seasonal groundwater storage change amplitude of 10.11 ± 2.5 km3 modulates a long-term groundwater storage decline of 21.32 ± 7.2 km3. Estimates for subbasins show more complex patterns, most likely associated with local hydrogeology, recharge, demand, and underground flow. Presented measurements of aquifer-system compaction provide a more complete understanding of groundwater dynamics and can potentially be used to improve water security.