World population growth: an international dilemma

Harold Fred Dorn and the First National Cancer Survey (1937-1939): the founding of modern cancer epidemiology

The development of modern epidemiology, particularly cancer epidemiology, is often seen as a post-World War II phenomenon. However, the First National Cancer Survey, conducted from 1937 to 1939 as part of the newly formed National Cancer Institute's initial activities, provided the first data on the occurrence of cancer in the United States. This project was directed by a young sociologist, Harold Fred Dorn. Through Dorn, many of the methodological innovations in sociology, such as the use of surveys and observational study designs, were incorporated into modern epidemiology. I examine Dorn's training and early career in the context of the First National Cancer Survey as a means of investigating the beginnings of modern epidemiology.

Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity

Earth's capacity to support people is determined both by natural constraints and by human choices concerning economics, environment, culture (including values and politics), and demography. Human carrying capacity is therefore dynamic and uncertain. Human choice is not captured by ecological notions of carrying capacity that are appropriate for nonhuman populations. Simple mathematical models of the relation between human population growth and human carrying capacity can account for faster-than-exponential population growth followed by a slowing population growth rate, as observed in recent human history.