Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

Cenozoic history of the tropical marine biodiversity hotspot

The region with the highest marine biodiversity on our planet is known as the Coral Triangle or Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA)1,2. Its enormous biodiversity has long attracted the interest of biologists; however, the detailed evolutionary history of the IAA biodiversity hotspot remains poorly understood3. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of the Cenozoic diversity history of the IAA by inferring speciation-extinction dynamics using a comprehensive fossil dataset. We found that the IAA has exhibited a unidirectional diversification trend since about 25 million years ago, following a roughly logistic increase until a diversity plateau beginning about 2.6 million years ago. The growth of diversity was primarily controlled by diversity dependency and habitat size, and also facilitated by the alleviation of thermal stress after 13.9 million years ago. Distinct net diversification peaks were recorded at about 25, 20, 16, 12 and 5 million years ago, which were probably related to major tectonic events in addition to climate transitions. Key biogeographic processes had far-reaching effects on the IAA diversity as shown by the long-term waning of the Tethyan descendants versus the waxing of cosmopolitan and IAA taxa. Finally, it seems that the absence of major extinctions and the Cenozoic cooling have been essential in making the IAA the richest marine biodiversity hotspot on Earth.

Unlocking Antarctic molecular time-capsules - Recovering historical environmental DNA from museum-preserved sponges

Marine sponges have recently emerged as efficient natural environmental DNA (eDNA) samplers. The ability of sponges to accumulate eDNA provides an exciting opportunity to reconstruct contemporary communities and ecosystems with high temporal and spatial precision. However, the use of historical eDNA, trapped within the vast number of specimens stored in scientific collections, opens up the opportunity to begin to reconstruct the communities and ecosystems of the past. Here, we define the term 'heDNA' to denote the historical environmental DNA that can be obtained from the recent past with high spatial and temporal accuracy. Using a variety of Antarctic sponge specimens stored in an extensive marine invertebrate collection, we were able to recover information on Antarctic fish biodiversity from specimens up to 20 years old. We successfully recovered 64 fish heDNA signals from 27 sponge specimens. Alpha diversity measures did not differ among preservation methods, but sponges stored frozen had a significantly different fish community composition compared to those stored dry or in ethanol. Our results show that we were consistently and reliably able to extract the heDNA trapped within marine sponge specimens, thereby enabling the reconstruction and investigation of communities and ecosystems of the recent past with a spatial and temporal resolution previously unattainable. Future research into heDNA extraction from other preservation methods, as well as the impact of specimen age and collection method, will strengthen and expand the opportunities for this novel resource to access new knowledge on ecological change during the last century.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

A dynamic and collaborative database for morphogeometric information of trilobites

Modern morphometric-based approaches provide valuable metrics to quantify and understand macroevolutionary and macroecological patterns and processes. Here we describe TriloMorph, an openly accessible database for morpho-geometric information of trilobites, together with a landmark acquisition protocol. In addition to morphological traits, the database contains contextual data on chronostratigraphic age, geographic location, taxonomic information and lithology of landmarked specimens. In this first version, the dataset has broad taxonomic and temporal coverage and comprises more than 55% of all trilobite genera and 85% of families recorded in the Paleobiology Database through the Devonian. We provide a release of geometric morphometric data of 277 specimens linked to published references. Additionally, we established a Github repository for constant input of morphometric data by multiple contributors and present R functions that help with data retrieval and analysis. This is the first attempt of an online, dynamic and collaborative morphometric repository. By bringing this information into a single open database we enhance the possibility of performing global palaeobiological research, providing a major complement to current occurrence-based databases.

Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction

The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time.

Diversity, distribution and intrinsic extinction vulnerability of exploited marine bivalves

Marine bivalves are important components of ecosystems and exploited by humans for food across the world, but the intrinsic vulnerability of exploited bivalve species to global changes is poorly known. Here, we expand the list of shallow-marine bivalves known to be exploited worldwide, with 720 exploited bivalve species added beyond the 81 in the United Nations FAO Production Database, and investigate their diversity, distribution and extinction vulnerability using a metric based on ecological traits and evolutionary history. The added species shift the richness hotspot of exploited species from the northeast Atlantic to the west Pacific, with 55% of bivalve families being exploited, concentrated mostly in two major clades but all major body plans. We find that exploited species tend to be larger in size, occur in shallower waters, and have larger geographic and thermal ranges-the last two traits are known to confer extinction-resistance in marine bivalves. However, exploited bivalve species in certain regions such as the tropical east Atlantic and the temperate northeast and southeast Pacific, are among those with high intrinsic vulnerability and are a large fraction of regional faunal diversity. Our results pinpoint regional faunas and specific taxa of likely concern for management and conservation.

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

How predictable are mass extinction events?

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Integrating deep-time palaeontology in conservation prioritisation

Halting biodiversity loss under growing anthropogenic pressure is arguably the greatest environmental challenge we face. Given that not all species are equally threatened and that resources are always limited, establishing robust prioritisation schemes is critical for implementing effective conservation actions. To this end, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species has become a widely used source of information on species’ extinction risk. Various metrics have been proposed that combine IUCN status with different aspects of biodiversity to identify conservation priorities. However, current strategies do not take full advantage of palaeontological data, with conservation palaeobiology often focussing on the near-time fossil record (the last 2 million years). Here, we make a case for the value of the deep-time (over 2 million years ago), as it can offer tangible parallels with today’s biodiversity crisis and inform on the intrinsic traits that make species prone to extinction. As such, palaeontological data holds great predictive power, which could be harnessed to flag species likely to be threatened but that are currently too poorly known to be identified as such. Finally, we identify key IUCN-based prioritisation metrics and outline opportunities for integrating palaeontological data to validate their implementation. Although the human signal of the current extinction crisis makes direct comparisons with the geological past challenging, the deep-time fossil record has more to offer to conservation than is currently recognised.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

The role of continental shelf bathymetry in shaping marine range shifts in the face of climate change

As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid-depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area.

Where traditional extinction estimates fall flat: using novel cophylogenetic methods to estimate extinction risk in platyhelminths

Today parasites comprise a huge proportion of living biodiversity and play a major role in shaping community structure. Given their ecological significance, parasite extinctions could result in massive cascading effects across ecosystems. It is therefore crucial that we have a way of estimating their extinction risk. Attempts to do this have often relied on information about host extinction risk, without explicitly incorporating information about the parasites. However, assuming an identical risk may be misleading. Here, we apply a novel metric to estimate the cophylogenetic extinction rate, Ec, of parasites with their hosts. This metric incorporates information about the evolutionary history of parasites and hosts that can be estimated using event-based cophylogenetic methods. To explore this metric, we investigated the use of different cophylogenetic methods to inform the Ec rate, based on the analysis of polystome parasites and their anuran hosts. We show using both parsimony- and model-based approaches that different methods can have a large effect on extinction risk estimation. Further, we demonstrate that model-based approaches offer greater potential to provide insights into cophylogenetic history and extinction risk.

Ancient Reef Traits, a database of trait information for reef-building organisms over the Phanerozoic

Trait-based approaches are increasingly relevant to understand ecological and evolutionary patterns. A comprehensive trait database for extant reef corals is already available and widely used to reveal vulnerabilities to environmental disturbances including climate change. However, the lack of similar trait compilations for extinct reef builders prevents the derivation of generalities from the fossil record and to address similar questions. Here we present the Ancient Reef Traits Database (ARTD), which aims to compile trait information of various reef-building organisms in one single repository. ARTD contains specimen-level data from both published and unpublished resources. In this first version, we release 15 traits for 505 genera and 1129 species, comprising a dataset of 17,841 trait values of Triassic to mid-Holocene scleractinian corals, the dominant reef-builders in the modern ocean. Other trait data, including for other reef-building organisms, are currently being collated.

Measurement(s)	fossil coral traits
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Scleractinian corals
Sample Characteristic - Location	Global

Colonial history and global economics distort our understanding of deep-time biodiversity

Sampling biases in the fossil record distort estimates of past biodiversity. However, these biases not only reflect the geological and spatial aspects of the fossil record, but also the historical and current collation of fossil data. We demonstrate how the legacy of colonialism and socioeconomic factors, such as wealth, education and political stability, impact the global distribution of fossil data over the past 30 years. We find that a global power imbalance persists in palaeontology, with researchers in high- or upper-middle-income countries holding a monopoly over palaeontological knowledge production by contributing to 97% of fossil data. As a result, some countries or regions tend to be better sampled than others, ultimately leading to heterogeneous spatial sampling across the globe. This illustrates how efforts to mitigate sampling biases to obtain a truly representative view of past biodiversity are not disconnected from the aim of diversifying and decolonizing our discipline.

Accelerated mass extinction in an isolated biota during Late Devonian climate changes

The fossil record can illuminate factors that contribute to extinction risk during times of global environmental disturbance; for example, inferred thermal tolerance was an important predictor of extinction during several mass extinctions that corresponded with climate change. Additionally, members of geographically isolated biotas may face higher risk because they have less opportunity to migrate to suitable climate refugia during environmental disturbances. Here, we investigate how different types of risk intersect in the well-preserved brachiopod fauna of the Appalachian Foreland Basin during the two pulses of the Frasnian-Famennian mass extinction (Late Devonian, ~ 372 Ma). The selectivity of extinction is consistent with climate change (cooling) as a primary kill mechanism in this fauna. Overall, the extinction was mild relative to other regions, despite the many endemic species. However, vulnerable taxa went extinct more rapidly, during the first extinction pulse, such that the second pulse was insignificant. These results suggest that vulnerable taxa in geographically isolated biotas face heightened extinction risk at the initiation of environmental stress, but that taxa in other regions may eventually see elevated extinction risk if environmental stress repeats or intensifies.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Scale-dependent effects of niche specialisation: The disconnect between individual and species ranges

One of the most general expectations of species range dynamics is that widespread species tend to have broader niches. However, it remains unclear how this relationship is expressed at different levels of biological organisation, which involve potentially distinctive processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we show that range sizes of terrestrial non-volant mammals at the individual and species level show contrasting relationships with two ecological niche dimensions: diet and habitat breadth. While average individual home range size appears to be mainly shaped by the interplay of diet niche breadth and body mass, species geographical range size is primarily related to habitat niche breadth but not to diet niche breadth. Our findings suggest that individual home range size is shaped by the trade-off between energetic requirements, movement capacity and trophic specialisation, whereas species geographical range size is related to the ability to persist under various environmental conditions.

Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

The preservation potential of terrestrial biogeographic patterns

Extinction events in the geological past are similar to the present-day biodiversity crisis in that they have a pronounced biogeography, producing dramatic changes in the spatial distributions of species. Reconstructing palaeobiogeographic patterns from fossils therefore allows us to examine the long-term processes governing the formation of regional biotas, and potentially helps build spatially explicit models for future biodiversity loss. However, the extent to which biogeographic patterns can be preserved in the fossil record is not well understood. Here, we perform a suite of simulations based on the present-day distribution of North American mammals, aimed at quantifying the preservation potential of beta diversity and spatial richness patterns over extinction events of varying intensities, and after applying a stepped series of taphonomic filters. We show that taphonomic biases related to body size are the biggest barrier to reconstructing biogeographic patterns over extinction events, but that these may be compensated for by both the small mammal record preserved in bird castings, as well as range expansion in surviving species. Overall, our results suggest that the preservation potential of biogeographic patterns is surprisingly high, and thus that the fossil record represents an invaluable dataset recording the changing spatial distribution of biota over key intervals in Earth History.

Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming

Organismic groups vary non-randomly in their vulnerability to extinction. However, it is unclear whether the same groups are consistently vulnerable, regardless of the dominant extinction drivers, or whether certain drivers have their own distinctive and predictable victims. Given the challenges presented by anthropogenic global warming, we focus on changes in extinction selectivity trends during ancient hyperthermal events: geologically rapid episodes of global warming. Focusing on the fossil record of the last 300 million years, we identify clades and traits of marine ectotherms that were more prone to extinction under the onset of six hyperthermal events than during other times. Hyperthermals enhanced the vulnerability of marine fauna that host photosymbionts, particularly zooxanthellate corals, the reef environments they provide, and genera with actively burrowing or swimming adult life-stages. The extinction risk of larger sized fauna also increased relative to non-hyperthermal times, while genera with a poorly buffered internal physiology did not become more vulnerable on average during hyperthermals. Hyperthermal-vulnerable clades include rhynchonelliform brachiopods and bony fish, whereas resistant clades include cartilaginous fish, and ostreid and venerid bivalves. These extinction responses in the geological past mirror modern responses of these groups to warming, including range-shift magnitudes, population losses, and experimental performance under climate-related stressors. Accordingly, extinction mechanisms distinctive to rapid global warming may be indicated, including sensitivity to warming-induced seawater deoxygenation. In anticipation of modern warming-driven marine extinctions, the trends illustrated in the fossil record offer an expedient preview.

High Preservation Potential of Paleogeographic Range Size Distributions in Deep Time

AbstractReconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the "sixth mass extinction." However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction "selectivity" on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth's history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing "false extinctions" in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size-extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.

Global biodiversity and biogeography of mangrove crabs: Temperature, the key driver of latitudinal gradients of species richness

Mangroves are ideal habitat for a variety of marine species especially brachyuran crabs as the dominant macrofauna. However, the global distribution, endemicity, and latitudinal gradients of species richness in mangrove crabs remains poorly understood. Here, we assessed whether species richness of mangrove crabs decreases towards the higher latitudes and tested the importance of environmental factors such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in creating the latitudinal gradients in species richness of mangrove crabs. A total of 8262 distribution records of 481 species belonging to six families of mangrove crabs including Camptandriidae, Dotillidae, Macrophthalmidae, Ocypodidae, Sesarmidae, and Oziidae were extracted from open-access databases or collected by the authors, quality controlled, cleaned, and analyzed. Species richness was plotted against 5° latitudinal bands in relation to environmental factors. The R software and ArcGIS 10.6.1 were used to analyze the species latitudinal range and richness as well as to map the distribution of mangrove forest, endemic species, species geographical distribution records, and biogeographic regions. The Indo-West Pacific showed the highest species richness of mangrove crabs where more than 65% of species were found in the Indian Ocean and along the western Pacific Ocean. Our results showed that there are 11 significantly different biogeographic regions of mangrove crabs. The highest endemicity rate was observed in the NW Pacific Ocean (29%). Latitudinal patterns of species richness in Macrophthalmidae, Ocypodidae, and Sesarmidae showed an increasing trend from the poles toward the intermediate latitudes including one dip near the equator. However, latitudinal gradients in Camptandriidae, Dotillidae, and Oziidae were unimodal increasing from the higher latitudes towards the equator. Species richness per 5° latitudinal bands significantly increased following mean SST mean (°C), calcite, euphotic depth (m), and mangrove area (km²) across all latitudes, and tide average within each hemisphere. Species richness significantly decreased with dissolved O₂ (ml l^-1) and nitrate (μmol l^-1) over all latitudes and in the southern hemisphere. The climax of global latitudinal species richness for some mangrove was observed along latitudes 20° N and 15°-25° S, not at the equator. This can suggest that temperature is probably the key driver of latitudinal gradients of mangrove crabs' species richness. Species richness and mangrove area were also highly correlated.

Functional diversity of marine megafauna in the Anthropocene

Marine megafauna, the largest animals in the oceans, serve key roles in ecosystem functioning. Yet, one-third of these animals are at risk of extinction. To better understand the potential consequences of megafaunal loss, here we quantify their current functional diversity, predict future changes under different extinction scenarios, and introduce a new metric [functionally unique, specialized and endangered (FUSE)] that identifies threatened species of particular importance for functional diversity. Simulated extinction scenarios forecast marked declines in functional richness if current trajectories are maintained during the next century (11% globally; up to 24% regionally), with more marked reductions (48% globally; up to 70% at the poles) beyond random expectations if all threatened species eventually go extinct. Among the megafaunal groups, sharks will incur a disproportionate loss of functional richness. We identify top FUSE species and suggest a renewed focus on these species to preserve the ecosystem functions provided by marine megafauna.

Marine Biodiversity and Geographic Distributions Are Independent on Large Scales

Fundamental ecological and evolutionary theories, such as community saturation and diversity-dependent diversification, assume that biotic competition restricts resource use, and thus limits realized niche breadth and geographic range size [1-3]. This principle is called competitive exclusion. The corollary (ecological release) posits that, after competitors disappear from a region, species that were previously excluded will invade. Hundreds of field experiments have demonstrated ecological release in living populations. However, few of these studies were conducted in marine environments, and almost no work extended beyond 10 years and 1,000 km2 [4, 5]. In limited investigation of marine taxa at larger spatiotemporal scales, macroecologists and paleobiologists have observed little evidence of competitive exclusion [6-9]. Here, we quantified spatial trends in the rich and densely sampled fossil history of brachiopods and bivalves, while accounting for inconsistent sampling coverage through time using a new method of spatial standardization. The number of potential competitors in a region did not explain the geographic distribution of constituent species or genera. Furthermore, although ecological release predicts species to expand after extinction events, survivors of intervals with net species loss expanded as rarely as species in other intervals. Regression model estimates indicated different spatial responses of brachiopods and bivalves, and of habitat specialists and generalists, but no effect from changes in number of potential competitors. Biotic competition may control the distribution of populations, but, on larger spatiotemporal scales, non-competitive factors may have driven biogeographic patterns of brachiopods and bivalves.

Enforced symmetry: the necessity of symmetric waxing and waning

A fundamental question in ecology is how the success of a taxon changes through time and what drives this change. This question is commonly approached using trajectories averaged over a group of taxa. Using results from probability theory, we show analytically and using examples that averaged trajectories will be more symmetric as the number of averaged trajectories increases, even if none of the original trajectories they were derived from is symmetric. This effect is not only based on averaging, but also on the introduction of noise and the incorporation of a priori known origination and extinction times. This implies that averaged trajectories are not suitable for deriving information about the processes driving the success of taxa. In particular, symmetric waxing and waning, which is commonly observed and interpreted to be linked to a number of different paleobiological processes, does not allow drawing any conclusions about the nature of the underlying process.

How predictable is extinction? Forecasting species survival at million-year timescales

A tenet of conservation palaeobiology is that knowledge of past extinction patterns can help us to better predict future extinctions. Although the future is unobservable, we can test the strength of this proposition by asking how well models conditioned on past observations would have predicted subsequent extinction events at different points in the geological past. To answer this question, we analyse the well-sampled fossil record of Cenozoic planktonic microfossil taxa (Foramanifera, Radiolaria, diatoms and calcareous nanoplankton). We examine how extinction probability varies over time as a function of species age, time of observation, current geographical range, change in geographical range, climate state and change in climate state. Our models have a 70-80% probability of correctly forecasting the rank order of extinction risk for a random out-of-sample species pair, implying that determinants of extinction risk have varied only modestly through time. We find that models which include either historical covariates or account for variation in covariate effects over time yield equivalent forecasts, but a model including both is overfit and yields biased forecasts. An important caveat is that human impacts may substantially disrupt range-risk dynamics so that the future will be less predictable than it has been in the past. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Addressing priority questions of conservation science with palaeontological data

Palaeontologists often ask identical questions to those asked by ecologists. Despite this, ecology is considered a core discipline of conservation biology, while palaeontologists are rarely consulted in the protection of species, habitats and ecosystems. The recent emergence of conservation palaeobiology presents a big step towards better integration of palaeontology in conservation science, although its focus on historical baselines may not fully capture the potential contributions of geohistorical data to conservation science. In this essay we address previously defined priority questions in conservation and consider which of these questions may be answerable using palaeontological data. Using a statistical assessment of surveys, we find that conservation biologists and younger scientists have a more optimistic view of potential palaeontological contributions to the field compared to experienced palaeontologists. Participants considered questions related to climate change and marine ecosystems to be the best addressable with palaeontological data. As these categories are also deemed most relevant by ecologists and receive the greatest research effort in conservation, they are the natural choice for future academic collaboration. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.

Young species of cupuladriid bryozoans occupied new Caribbean habitats faster than old species

The breadth of habitat occupied by a species, and the rate at which a species can expand into new habitats has important ecological and evolutionary consequences. Here we explore when extant species of free-living cupuladriid bryozoans expanded into new benthic Caribbean habitats that emerged during the final stages of formation of the Isthmus of Panama. Habitat breadth was estimated using the abundances of over 90,000 colonies in ten cupuladriid species, along with the ecological and sedimentary characteristics of the samples in which they occurred. Data reveal that all species expanded their habitat breadths during the last 6 Myr, but did so at a different tempo. ‘Young’ species - those that originated after 5 Ma - expanded relatively quickly, whereas ‘old’ species - those that originated before 9 Ma - took a further 2 Myr to achieve a comparable level of expansion. We propose that, like invasive species, young species are less restrained when expanding their habitat breadths compared to older well-established species. Understanding the mechanism causing this restraint requires further research.

Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil-calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa-specific Red Listing status.

Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk

Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in long-term time series and palaeoecological records: deep sea as a test bed

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) over long temporal scales is poorly understood. Here, we investigate biological monitoring and palaeoecological records on decadal, centennial and millennial time scales from a BEF framework by using deep sea, soft-sediment environments as a test bed. Results generally show positive BEF relationships, in agreement with BEF studies based on present-day spatial analyses and short-term manipulative experiments. However, the deep-sea BEF relationship is much noisier across longer time scales compared with modern observational studies. We also demonstrate with palaeoecological time-series data that a larger species pool does not enhance ecosystem stability through time, whereas higher abundance as an indicator of higher ecosystem functioning may enhance ecosystem stability. These results suggest that BEF relationships are potentially time scale-dependent. Environmental impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning may be much stronger than biodiversity impacts on ecosystem functioning at long, decadal-millennial, time scales. Longer time scale perspectives, including palaeoecological and ecosystem monitoring data, are critical for predicting future BEF relationships on a rapidly changing planet.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Linking speciation to extinction: Diversification raises contemporary extinction risk in amphibians

Many of the traits associated with elevated rates of speciation, including niche specialization and having small and isolated populations, are similarly linked with an elevated risk of extinction. This suggests that rapidly speciating lineages may also be more extinction prone. Empirical tests of a speciation-extinction correlation are rare because assessing paleontological extinction rates is difficult. However, the modern biodiversity crisis allows us to observe patterns of extinction in real time, and if this hypothesis is true then we would expect young clades that have recently diversified to have high contemporary extinction risk. Here, we examine evolutionary patterns of modern extinction risk across over 300 genera within one of the most threatened vertebrate classes, the Amphibia. Consistent with predictions, rapidly diversifying amphibian clades also had a greater share of threatened species. Curiously, this pattern is not reflected in other tetrapod classes and may reflect a greater propensity to speciate through peripheral isolation in amphibians, which is partly supported by a negative correlation between diversification rate and mean geographic range size. This clustered threat in rapidly diversifying amphibian genera means that protecting a small number of species can achieve large gains in preserving amphibian phylogenetic diversity. Nonindependence between speciation and extinction rates has many consequences for patterns of biodiversity and how we may choose to conserve it.

Contradicting habitat type-extinction risk relationships between living and fossil amphibians

Trait analysis has become a crucial tool for assessing the extinction risk of species. While some extinction risk-trait relationships have been often identical between different living taxa, a temporal comparison of fossil taxa with related current taxa was rarely considered. However, we argue that it is important to know if extinction risk-trait relations are constant or changing over time. Herein we investigated the influence of habitat type on the persistence length of amphibian species. Living amphibians are regarded as the most threatened group of terrestrial vertebrates and thus of high interest to conservationists. Species from different habitat types show differences in extinction risk, i.e. species depending on flowing waters being more threatened than those breeding in stagnant sites. After assessing the quality of the available amphibian fossil data, we show that today's habitat type-extinction risk relationship is reversed compared to fossil amphibians, former taxa persisting longer when living in rivers and streams, thus suggesting a change of effect direction of this trait. Neither differences between amphibian orders nor environmentally caused preservation effects could explain this pattern. We argue this change to be most likely a result of anthropogenic influence, which turned a once favourable strategy into a disadvantage.

Understanding modern extinctions in marine ecosystems: the role of palaeoecological data

Because anthropogenic impacts on ecological systems pre-date the oldest scientific observations, historical documents and archaeological records, understanding modern extinctions requires additional data sources that extend further back in time. Palaeoecological records, which provide quantitative proxy records of ecosystems prior to human impact, are essential for understanding recent extinctions and future extinction risks. Here we critically review the value of the most recent fossil record in contributing to our understanding of modern extinctions and illustrate through case studies how naturally occurring death assemblages and Holocene sedimentary records provide context to the plight of marine ecosystems. While palaeoecological data are inherently restricted censuses of past communities (manipulative experiments are not possible), they yield quantitative records over temporal scales that are beyond the reach of ecology. Only by including palaeoecological data is it possible to fully assess the role of long-term anthropogenic processes in driving modern extinction risk.

Biodiversity and Topographic Complexity: Modern and Geohistorical Perspectives

Topographically complex regions on land and in the oceans feature hotspots of biodiversity that reflect geological influences on ecological and evolutionary processes. Over geologic time, topographic diversity gradients wax and wane over millions of years, tracking tectonic or climatic history. Topographic diversity gradients from the present day and the past can result from the generation of species by vicariance or from the accumulation of species from dispersal into a region with strong environmental gradients. Biological and geological approaches must be integrated to test alternative models of diversification along topographic gradients. Reciprocal illumination among phylogenetic, phylogeographic, ecological, paleontological, tectonic, and climatic perspectives is an emerging frontier of biogeographic research.

Life in the Aftermath of Mass Extinctions

The vast majority of species that have ever lived went extinct sometime other than during one of the great mass extinction events. In spite of this, mass extinctions are thought to have outsized effects on the evolutionary history of life. While part of this effect is certainly due to the extinction itself, I here consider how the aftermaths of mass extinctions might contribute to the evolutionary importance of such events. Following the mass loss of taxa from the fossil record are prolonged intervals of ecological upheaval that create a selective regime unique to those times. The pacing and duration of ecosystem change during extinction aftermaths suggests strong ties between the biosphere and geosphere, and a previously undescribed macroevolutionary driver - earth system succession. Earth system succession occurs when global environmental or biotic change, as occurs across extinction boundaries, pushes the biosphere and geosphere out of equilibrium. As species and ecosystems re-evolve in the aftermath, they change global biogeochemical cycles - and in turn, species and ecosystems - over timescales typical of the geosphere, often many thousands to millions of years. Earth system succession provides a general explanation for the pattern and timing of ecological and evolutionary change in the fossil record. Importantly, it also suggests that a speed limit might exist for the pace of global biotic change after massive disturbance - a limit set by geosphere-biosphere interactions. For mass extinctions, earth system succession may drive the ever-changing ecological stage on which species evolve, restructuring ecosystems and setting long-term evolutionary trajectories as they do.