When an emerging disease becomes endemic

Determinants of successful disease control through voluntary quarantine dynamics on social networks

In the wake of epidemics, quarantine measures are typically recommended by health authorities or governments to help control the spread of the disease. Compared with mandatory quarantine, voluntary quarantine offers individuals the liberty to decide whether to isolate themselves in case of infection exposure, driven by their personal assessment of the trade-off between economic loss and health risks as well as their own sense of social responsibility and concern for public health. To better understand self-motivated health behavior choices under these factors, here we incorporate voluntary quarantine into an endemic disease model - the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model - and perform comprehensive agent-based simulations to characterize the resulting behavior-disease interactions in structured populations. We quantify the conditions under which voluntary quarantine will be an effective intervention measure to mitigate disease burden. Furthermore, we demonstrate how individual decision-making factors, including the level of temptation to refrain from quarantine and the degree of social compassion, impact compliance levels of voluntary quarantines and the consequent collective disease mitigation efforts. We find that successful disease control requires either a sufficiently low level of temptation or a sufficiently high degree of social compassion, such that even complete containment of the epidemic is attainable. In addition to well-mixed populations, we have also analyzed other more realistic social networks of contacts, including spatial lattices, small-world networks, and real social networks. Our work offers new insights into the fundamental social dilemma aspect of disease control through non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as voluntary quarantine and isolation, where the collective outcome of individual decision-making is crucial.

Internal and external factors affecting vaccination coverage: Modeling the interactions between vaccine hesitancy, accessibility, and mandates

Society, culture, and individual motivations affect human decisions regarding their health behaviors and preventative care, and health-related perceptions and behaviors can change at the population level as cultures evolve. An increase in vaccine hesitancy, an individual mindset informed within a cultural context, has resulted in a decrease in vaccination coverage and an increase in vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) outbreaks, particularly in developed countries where vaccination rates are generally high. Understanding local vaccination cultures, which evolve through an interaction between beliefs and behaviors and are influenced by the broader cultural landscape, is critical to fostering public health. Vaccine mandates and vaccine inaccessibility are two external factors that interact with individual beliefs to affect vaccine-related behaviors. To better understand the population dynamics of vaccine hesitancy, it is important to study how these external factors could shape a population's vaccination decisions and affect the broader health culture. Using a mathematical model of cultural evolution, we explore the effects of vaccine mandates, vaccine inaccessibility, and varying cultural selection trajectories on a population's level of vaccine hesitancy and vaccination behavior. We show that vaccine mandates can lead to a phenomenon in which high vaccine hesitancy co-occurs with high vaccination coverage, and that high vaccine confidence can be maintained even in areas where access to vaccines is limited.

Coupled System Approach to Healthy Earth Environments and Individual Human Resilience

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has stressed our social organizations, health care systems and economies at a level not experienced since WWII or the last “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918. This shock provides a real-life test of the resilience of human societies and of individuals, challenging our understanding and level of preparation. While hurried coercive non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccinations were the main responses, for the future, we propose a coupled double-system approach linking efforts to improve both human well-being and Earth environmental health. Concretely, this means linking (i) the build-up of individual health resilience using holistic medical system perspectives applied to each person with (ii) efforts to depollute and achieve more healthy Earth environments that are intrinsic pillars of humans’ health and wealth. The push to fight Earth ecological damages towards environmental sustainability should be rethought as being motivated by recovering an ecosystem in which each own personal biological ecosystem (i.e., each person's homeostatic balance) can strive again. We propose to prioritize Human-Environment-Health initiatives for depolluting the environment and of our immune systems, as well as improving individual responsibility and resilience.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Prevalence and risk factors of worry among teachers during the COVID-19 epidemic in Henan, China: a cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the level of worry and its influencing factors during the COVID-19 epidemic among teachers in Henan Province in China.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was conducted.

METHODS

We designed a cross-sectional survey that included 88 611 teachers from three cities in Henan Province, China between 4 February 2020 and 12 February 2020. Level of worry was measured using a five-item Likert scale, with 1 being 'not worried' and 5 being 'very worried'. The OR and 95% CI of potential influencing factors for level of worry among study participants were estimated using ordinal logistic regression models.

RESULTS

About 59% of teachers reported being 'very worried' about the COVID-19 epidemic. The proportion of female teachers was higher than of male teachers (60.33% vs 52.89%). In all age groups considered in this study, a 'very worried' condition accounted for the highest proportion. The age group 40-49 years had the lowest proportion of participants who were very worried, 52.34% of whom were men and 58.62% were women. After controlling for potential confounding factors, age, education level, type of teacher, school location, attention level, fear level, anxiety level and behaviour status were all related to level of worry (all p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 epidemic, there was a high proportion of teachers who were 'very worried' about the situation in Henan Province, China. Our study may remind policymakers to consider factors including age, educational status, type of teacher, school location, source of information on COVID-19, attention level, anxiety level, fear level and behaviour status to alleviate worry.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Taiwan Government-Guided Strategies Contributed to Combating and Controlling COVID-19 Pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious, and thus has become an emerging health crisis worldwide. The optimal strategies to prevent the spread of this disease are inconclusive, and therefore, the adopted measurements to combat COVID-19 varies in different countries. In mid-March and late-August 2020, we performed internet searches to collect relevant information, from sources such as the website of the World Health Organization. The epidemiological data of COVID-19 from several countries were collected and we found that Taiwan had a comparably successful story for combating the pandemic. As of mid-March, Taiwan had high rates of diagnostic testing (688.5 tests per million citizens) with a lower infection rate (49 cases, 2.1 cases per million people). As of late-August, there were 488 cases (20 cases per million people). Furthermore, Taiwanese government-guided strategies and hospital data were also reviewed. We summarized some important strategies to combat COVID-19, which include: (1) border control; (2) official media channel and press conferences; (3) name-based rationing system for medical masks; (4) TOCC-based rapid triage, outdoor clinics, and protective sampling devices; and (5) social distancing, delaying the start of new semesters, and religious assembly restriction. In conclusion, Taiwan had lower rates of COVID-19 compared with other countries, and Taiwan government-guided strategies contributed to the control of the disease's spread.

Barrier Precautions in the Era of Multidrug Pathogens

Purpose of review

There is a continuing debate regarding contact precaution (CP) usage for endemic multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs). In this review, we examine current recommendations for CP and highlight differences in CP use between endemic and non-endemic MDROs.

Recent findings

The discontinuation of CP had no effect on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococci. The evidence regarding CP for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae is inconclusive, highlighting the need for more research to determine best infection control strategies. Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae maintains a sporadic pattern in the USA, supporting current recommendations to use CP for colonized and infected patients. MDR Acinetobacter baumannii (MDR-AB) is extremely virulent and responsible for outbreaks in healthcare settings, emphasizing the need for CP use with MDR-AB infected patients. Candida auris (C. auris) is often misdiagnosed; it is resistant to UV light and quaternary ammonium low-level disinfection. Because little is known about the transmission of C. auris, significant caution and CP use are necessitated. There is little research on vancomycin-resistant S. aureus (VRSA) control strategies due to its rarity; thus, CP is strongly recommended.

Summary

Contact precautions are frequently part of a bundled infection control approach that involves meticulous hand hygiene, patient decolonization, chlorhexidine gluconate bathing, and reducing the use of invasive devices. Healthcare facilities should continue to utilize CP for non-endemic MDROs and the presence of endemic MDROs; however, CP may not add benefit to the current infection prevention bundle approach.

COVID-19: Taiwan's epidemiological characteristics and public and hospital responses

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is a global health threat with significant medical, economic, social and political implications. The optimal strategies for combating COVID-19 have not been fully determined and vary across countries.

METHODS

By the end of February 2020 in Taiwan, 2,150 patients received diagnostic COVID-19 testing and 39 confirmed cases were detected. This is a relatively lower rate of infection compared to other Asian countries. In this article, we summarize the epidemiological characteristics of the 39 infected patients as well as public and hospital responses to COVID-19.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine COVID-19 cases and one death have been confirmed in Taiwan. Seventeen of these patients were infected by family members or in hospital wards, emphasizing how COVID-19 is mostly spread by close contact. We examined how hospital have responded to COVID-19, including their implementation of patient route control, outdoor clinics, hospital visit restrictions and ward and staff modifications. We also studied the public's use of face masks in response to COVID-19. These strategies may reduce the spread of COVID-19 in other countries.

CONCLUSION

The emergence and spread of COVID-19 is a threat to health worldwide. Taiwan has reported lower infected cases and its strategies may contribute to further disease prevention and control.

Mass Gatherings and Diarrheal Disease Transmission Among Rural Communities in Coastal Ecuador

Mass gatherings exacerbate infectious disease risks by creating crowded, high-contact conditions and straining the capacity of local infrastructure. While mass gatherings have been extensively studied in the context of epidemic disease transmission, the role of gatherings in incidence of high-burden, endemic infections has not been previously studied. Here, we examine diarrheal incidence among 17 communities in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, in relation to recurrent gatherings characterized using ethnographic data collected during and after the epidemiologic surveillance period (2004-2007). Using distributed-lag generalized estimating equations, adjusted for seasonality, trend, and heavy rainfall events, we found significant increases in diarrhea risk in host villages, peaking 2 weeks after an event's conclusion (incidence rate ratio, 1.21; confidence interval, adjusted for false coverage rate of ≤0.05: 1.02, 1.43). Stratified analysis revealed heightened risks associated with events where crowding and travel were most likely (2-week-lag incidence rate ratio, 1.51; confidence interval, adjusted for false coverage rate of ≤0.05: 1.09, 2.10). Our findings suggest that community-scale mass gatherings might play an important role in endemic diarrheal disease transmission and could be an important focus for interventions to improve community health in low-resource settings.

System dynamics modeling of public health services provided by China CDC to control infectious and endemic diseases in China

BACKGROUND

Infectious and endemic diseases are a serious public health concern worldwide, and their prevention and treatment are globally controversial. This study aimed to establish an system dynamics (SD) model to analyze the factors influencing public health services provided by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) to implement infectious and endemic disease control in China, by establishing more effective interventions to provide public health services and thus achieving the goal of controlling infectious and endemic diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An SD model was constructed using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention experiments were performed using the SD model, which reflected the influences on disease control by adjusting the governmental investment and compensation level for public health products.

RESULTS

The experimental results showed that increasing the governmental investment in China CDC and compensation level for public health products will significantly increase the public health product rate provided by China CDC.

DISCUSSION

Problems with infectious and endemic disease prevention and treatment are the result of the system's incomplete functioning and limited health resources. To address the current problems and improve the system, the government should increase its investment in the public health service system and improve the compensation system to ensure smooth implementation of infectious and endemic disease prevention and treatment and, ultimately, improve public health in China.

Emerging reverse transcriptase inhibitors for HIV-1 infection

INTRODUCTION

There are 36.7 million people living with HIV with 20.9 million having access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) remain the 'backbone' of ART. However, the currently available nine NRTIs and five non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) have significant side effects and resistance profiles. Areas covered: We summarize the mechanisms of resistance and other limitations of the existing NRTIs/NNRTIs. GS-9131, MK-8591, Elsulfavirine and Doravirine are four new agents that are furthest along in development. Expert opinion: ART development has evolved with several new promising agents. Longer-acting agents, like MK-8591 are extremely attractive to enhance drug adherence and patient satisfaction. Doravirine offers an NNRTI effective against common mutations that has fewer side effects, limitations on dosing and drug interactions. GS-9131 is very potent and active against a variety of NRTI mutants but it is too early in its development to understand its full risks and benefits. Finally, Elsulfavirine has a long half-life and preliminary data suggests fewer side effects than the most commonly used NNRTI, efavirenz. Each of these new agents shows promise and potential to improve ART in the future. The newer generation of reverse transcriptase inhibitors have longer half-lives, more favorable adverse effect profiles, and fewer drug interactions.

The Evolution of Pediatric Disease-A Moving Target in Public Health

There is a growing threat in the re-emergence of diseases that impact pediatric demographics. While major strides have been made in the field of childhood cancers, there are still more questions than answers. In addition, public resistance to recommended practices related to childhood vaccinations fueled by misinformation has allowed infectious diseases to resurface in developed nations. Meanwhile, climate change and other destabilizing factors are shifting vector populations and driving the emergence of new diseases. Herein we call upon the community of human health researchers to confront the evolving specter of pediatric disease.