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Banerjee A, Chen S, Pasea L, Lai AG, Katsoulis M, Denaxas S, Nafilyan V, Williams B, Wong WK, Bakhai A, Khunti K, Pillay D, Noursadeghi M, Wu H, Pareek N, Bromage D, McDonagh TA, Byrne J, Teo JTH, Shah AM, Humberstone B, Tang LV, Shah ASV, Rubboli A, Guo Y, Hu Y, Sudlow CLM, Lip GYH, Hemingway H. Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2021; 28:1599-1609. [PMID: 33611594 PMCID: PMC7928969 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwaa155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2020] [Revised: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
AIMS Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare. METHODS AND RESULTS We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. CONCLUSION Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amitava Banerjee
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
- Department of Cardiology, Barts Health NHS Trust, Royal London Hospital, Whitechapel Road, London, UK, E1 1BB
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, 235 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BU
| | - Suliang Chen
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Laura Pasea
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Alvina G Lai
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Michail Katsoulis
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Spiros Denaxas
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Vahe Nafilyan
- Office for National Statistics. 1 Drummond Gate, Pimlico, London, UK, SW1V 2QQ
| | - Bryan Williams
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, 235 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BU
- Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, London, UK, WC1E 6BT
- University College London Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Maple House, 1st Floor, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, UK, W1T 7DN
| | - Wai Keong Wong
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, 235 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BU
| | - Ameet Bakhai
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Free Hospital, Pond Street, London, UK, NW3 2QG
| | - Kamlesh Khunti
- Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester General Hospital, Gwendolen Rd, Leicester, UK, LE5 4PW
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Division of Infection and Immunity, UCL Cruciform Building, University College London, Gower Street, London, UK, WC1E 6BT
| | - Mahdad Noursadeghi
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, 235 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BU
- Division of Infection and Immunity, UCL Cruciform Building, University College London, Gower Street, London, UK, WC1E 6BT
| | - Honghan Wu
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
- School of Computer and Software, Najing University of Information Science and Technology, Ningliu Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, P.R.C. 210044, China
| | - Nilesh Pareek
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
| | - Daniel Bromage
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
- Kings College London British Heart Foundation Centre, School of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS. UK
| | - Theresa A McDonagh
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
- Kings College London British Heart Foundation Centre, School of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS. UK
| | - Jonathan Byrne
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
| | - James T H Teo
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
| | - Ajay M Shah
- Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, Brixton, London, UK, SE5 9RS
- Kings College London British Heart Foundation Centre, School of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS. UK
| | - Ben Humberstone
- Office for National Statistics. 1 Drummond Gate, Pimlico, London, UK, SW1V 2QQ
| | - Liang V Tang
- Institute of Hematology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, China
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, 47 Little France Crescent Edinburgh, UK. EH16 4TJ
| | - Andrea Rubboli
- Division of Cardiology, Ospedale S. Maria delle Croci, Viale Randi 5, 48121, Ravenna. Italy
| | - Yutao Guo
- PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Beijing, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Hu
- Institute of Hematology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, China
| | - Cathie L M Sudlow
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
- Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, 9 Little France Road, Edinburgh BioQuarter City, Edinburgh, UK, EH16 4UX
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool,William Henry Duncan Building, 6 W Derby Street, Liverpool, UK, L7 8TX
- Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool, UK, L14 3PE
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Aalborg University, Søndre Skovvej 15, Forskningens Hus 9000, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Harry Hemingway
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, 222 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 1DA
- Health Data Research UK, Gibbs Building, 215 Euston Road, London, UK, NW1 2BE
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Price G, Mackay R, Aznar M, McWilliam A, Johnson-Hart C, van Herk M, Faivre-Finn C. Learning healthcare systems and rapid learning in radiation oncology: Where are we and where are we going? Radiother Oncol 2021; 164:183-195. [PMID: 34619237 DOI: 10.1016/j.radonc.2021.09.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
Learning health systems and rapid-learning are well developed at the conceptual level. The promise of rapidly generating and applying evidence where conventional clinical trials would not usually be practical is attractive in principle. The connectivity of modern digital healthcare information systems and the increasing volumes of data accrued through patients' care pathways offer an ideal platform for the concepts. This is particularly true in radiotherapy where modern treatment planning and image guidance offers a precise digital record of the treatment planned and delivered. The vision is of real-world data, accrued by patients during their routine care, being used to drive programmes of continuous clinical improvement as part of standard practice. This vision, however, is not yet a reality in radiotherapy departments. In this article we review the literature to explore why this is not the case, identify barriers to its implementation, and suggest how wider clinical application might be achieved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gareth Price
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom.
| | - Ranald Mackay
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
| | - Marianne Aznar
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
| | - Alan McWilliam
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
| | - Corinne Johnson-Hart
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
| | - Marcel van Herk
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
| | - Corinne Faivre-Finn
- The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom
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