Epidemiological impact of achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for HIV care in India: a modelling study

Challenges and Pragmatic Solutions for Assessing the Reliability of HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring in Resource-Constrained Settings

INTRODUCTION

HIV-1 RNA detection is the most reliable method for monitoring treatment response among people living with HIV. Effective quality control measures that include internal quality control (IQC) are challenging in resource-constrained settings.

METHODS

We ascertained the utility of the kit low positive control (LPC) as an effective IQC to monitor the reliability of the HIV-1 viral load assay. Variations in LPC values were measured for 390 different runs over 10 years (2011-2021) and compared to in-house IQC data using Levey-Jennings control chart.

RESULTS

Overall, the Levey-Jennings analysis showed minimal variation (±0.5 log) for both the LPC and IQC data. The mean LPC value for first 20 runs (20 days) was 2.91. The mean LPC value for the 390 runs comprising 35 different lots was 3.01 ± 0.1 log.

CONCLUSION

Our decadal data reveal that Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay (Abbott Molecular Inc., IL, USA) LPC exhibited no significant biological variation over 390 runs distributed over 10 years. Hence, assay LPC can supplant the IQC for monitoring assay trends as a stable and commutable material in resource-constrained settings.

Cascades of diabetes and hypertension care in Samoa: Identifying gaps in the diagnosis, treatment, and control continuum - a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Samoa is a Pacific Island country facing one of the highest burdens of non-communicable disease globally.

METHODS

In this study, we apply a cascade-of-care approach to understand gaps in the awareness, treatment, and control cascade of diabetes and hypertension in a cross-sectional, convenience sample of 703 young, high-risk Samoan adults (29.5-50.9 years).

FINDINGS

Non-communicable diseases were prevalent in the study sample: 19.5% (95% CI: 16.6%-22.7%) of participants had diabetes; 47.6% (95% CI: 43.7%-51.4%) presented with pre-diabetes or diabetes; 31.0% (95% CI: 27.5%-34.6%) had hypertension; and nearly 90% (95% CI: 86.7%-91.5%) had overweight or obesity. Among those with diabetes and hypertension, only 20.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-28.4%) and 11.8% (95% CI: 7.8%-16.9%) of participants were aware of their condition, respectively. Only 0.8% (95% CI: 0.0%-4.2%) of all participants with diabetes had achieved glycemic control; only 2.8% (95% CI: 1.1%-6.1%) of those with hypertension achieved control.

INTERPRETATION

We found a significant burden of diabetes and hypertension in Samoa, exceeding the recent prevalence estimates of other low- to middle-income countries by nearly two-fold. A severe unmet need in both detection and subsequent control and monitoring of these chronic conditions exists. Our results suggest that the initial diagnosis and surveillance stage in the cascade of care for chronic conditions should be a major focus of primary care efforts; national screening campaigns and programs that leverage village and district nurses to deliver community-based primary care may significantly impact gap closure in the NCD cascade.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the U.S. National Institutes of Health R01HL140570 (PIs: McGarvey and DeLany); AR was supported by NIH FIC D43TW010540; HK and AR-C were supported by the Minority Health and Health Disparities International Research Training (MHIRT) Program at Brown University, NIH Grant # 5T37MD008655.

Phylogenetic and Drug-Resistance Analysis of HIV-1 Sequences From an Extensive Paediatric HIV-1 Outbreak in Larkana, Pakistan

Introduction

In April 2019, an HIV-1 outbreak among children occurred in Larkana, Pakistan, affecting more than a thousand children. It was assumed that the outbreak originated from a single source, namely a doctor at a private health facility. In this study, we performed subtype distribution, phylogenetic and drug-resistance analysis of HIV-1 sequences from 2019 outbreak in Larkana, Pakistan.

Methods

A total of 401 blood samples were collected between April–June 2019, from children infected with HIV-1 aged 0–15 years recruited into a case-control study to investigate the risk factors for HIV-1 transmission. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were generated from 344 blood plasma samples to determine HIV-1 subtype and drug resistance mutations (DRM). Maximum-likelihood phylogenetics based on outbreak and reference sequences was used to identify transmission clusters and assess the relationship between outbreak and key population sequences between and within the determined clusters. Bayesian analysis was employed to identify the time to the most recent common recent ancestor (tMRCA) of the main Pakistani clusters.

Results

The HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF) 02_AG and subtype A1 were most common among the outbreak sequences. Of the treatment-naïve participants, the two most common mutations were RT: E138A (8%) and RT: K219Q (8%). Four supported clusters within the outbreak were identified, and the median tMRCAs of the Larkana outbreak sequences were estimated to 2016 for both the CRF02_AG and the subtype A1 clusters. Furthermore, outbreak sequences exhibited no phylogenetic mixing with sequences from other high-risk groups of Pakistan.

Conclusion

The presence of multiple clusters indicated a multi-source outbreak, rather than a single source outbreak from a single health practitioner as previously suggested. The multiple introductions were likely a consequence of ongoing transmission within the high-risk groups of Larkana, and it is possible that the so-called Larkana strain was introduced into the general population through poor infection prevention control practices in healthcare settings. The study highlights the need to scale up HIV-1 prevention programmes among key population groups and improving infection prevention control in Pakistan.

How Do People Living With HIV Acquire HIV Related Information: A Qualitative Evaluation of Jakarta Setting

Introduction: People living with HIV are fully aware of their risk behavior and future threats that might arise. The rapid progress of HIV serves the population with many options of healthcare services and treatments. Insufficient knowledge and information will only lower the outcomes of HIV eradication efforts. The ultimate goals to eradicate HIV are to upscale status notification and treat all with appropriate antiretroviral and viral suppression, but it needs sufficient information to administer. Programs and interventions have already been proposed, but an inquiry is needed to ensure all the information is actually there. The study aimed to explore the experience of people living with HIV acquiring HIV-related information.Methods: This study used phenomenological qualitative study and in-depth interviews were conducted to 12 people living with HIV. Semi-structured questions were delivered to all participants which explored their tangible experience in terms of nurturing sufficient HIV-related information.Results: The study found four consequential themes:  non-government organizations play a major role in HIV education, peers are a comfortable platform to discuss, it is all over the media and healthcare personnel are a source of knowledge. Conclusion: The distribution of HIV information and knowledge is now widespread. This situation marks   part of the success in fighting HIV. Remarkable attempts can be maintained by optimizing the viable option of information delivery.  Keyword: HIV knowledge; people living with HIV; qualitative study

Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Methods

The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants.

Results

A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030.

Conclusions

Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.

The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa

Introduction

A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi‐purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost‐effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi‐purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs).

Methods

We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of five candidate co‐formulated or co‐provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end‐users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

At central incidence rates, all single‐ and multi‐purpose scenarios modelled were cost‐effective among FSWs and women aged 16–24, at a governmental willingness‐to‐pay threshold of $1175/DALY averted (range: $214–$810/DALY averted among non‐dominant scenarios), however, none were cost‐effective among women aged 25–49 (minimum $1706/DALY averted). The cost‐effectiveness of products improved with additional protection from pregnancy. Estimates were sensitive to variation in incidence assumptions, but robust to other parameters.

Conclusions

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of a range of potential MPTs; suggesting that MPTs will be cost‐effective among higher incidence FSWs or young women, but not among lower incidence older women. More work is needed to make attractive MPTs available to potential users who could use them effectively.

A health communication intervention to integrate partner testing with antiretroviral therapy service among men who have sex with men in China: an observational cohort study

Background

In China, antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics focus on treating people living with HIV and are not required to undertake testing of high-risk populations. To improve partner testing among MSM, we implemented a health communication pilot intervention integrating partner testing with ART services. We aimed to assess the feasibility of the partner referral service and identify the predictors of both successful partner referral for HIV testing and HIV-positive test results among referred partners.

Methods

This program ran from April 2014 through December 2015 at designated ART clinics in six cities. The index participants, men living with HIV enrolled at an ART clinic, were assigned a case manager who assumed responsibility for routine ART-related counseling and mobilization of HIV-positive index participants for partner referral testing. Case managers were either nurses or contract staff. The successful referral rate was the proportion of index participants who referred a sexual partner for HIV testing. The HIV-positive partner rate was the proportion of the newly referred contacts who tested HIV-positive. Factors associated with the successful referral rate and the HIV-positive partner rate were assessed.

Results

Two thousand three hundred eighty-two index participants were enrolled. The median age was 30 years (IQR 26–37). 829index participants (34.80%) successfully referred at least one sexual partner for screening, and 92 (11.10%) referred partners were HIV-positive. Having a hospital nurse as case manager was associated with both successful partner referral (AHR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.36–1.80) and having a HIV-positive partner (AHR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.45–3.92). Index participants who were married (AHR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.20–1.73) or employed (AHR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.11–1.49) were more likely to successfully refer a partner for testing. Stable male partner relations were more likely to result in a referred partner testing HIV-positive (AHR = 5.50, 95% CI = 1.85–16.39).

Conclusion

Our findings indicated that integration of MSM partner testing with ART services via health communication was feasible. Nurses as case managers effectively encouraged index participants to refer their sexual partners for HIV testing.

Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries

The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [first and third quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control.