Cholelithiasis and the risk of liver cancer: results from cohort studies of 134,546 Chinese men and women

Global Epidemiology of Gallstones in the 21st Century: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Gallstones are common and associated with substantial health and economic burden. We aimed to comprehensively evaluate the prevalence and incidence of gallstones in the 21st century.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Embase to identify studies reporting the prevalence and/or incidence of gallstones between January 1, 2000, and November 18, 2023. Pooled prevalence and incidence were calculated using DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model. We performed subgroup analyses and meta-regression based on age, sex, geographic location, population setting, and modality of detection to examine sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Based on 115 studies with 32,610,568 participants, the pooled prevalence of gallstones was 6.1% (95% CI, 5.6-6.5). Prevalence was higher in females vs males (7.6% vs 5.4%), in South America vs Asia (11.2% vs 5.1%), in upper-middle-income countries vs high-income countries (8.9% vs 4.0%), and with advancing age. On sensitivity analysis of population-based studies, the prevalence of gallstones was 5.5% (95% CI, 4.1-7.4; n = 44 studies), and when limiting subgroup analysis to imaging-based detection modalities, the prevalence was 6.7% (95% CI, 6.1-7.3; n = 101 studies). Prevalence has been stable over the past 20 years. Based on 12 studies, the incidence of gallstones was 0.47 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.37-0.51), without differences between males and females, and with increasing incidence in more recent studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, 6% of the population have gallstones, with higher rates in females and in South America. The incidence of gallstones may be increasing. Our findings call for prioritizing research on the prevention of gallstones.

Cholecystectomy and risk of liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 27 million individuals

BACKGROUND

There is still a lack of knowledge on the association between cholecystectomy and liver disease. This study was conducted to summarize the available evidence on the association of cholecystectomy with liver disease and quantify the magnitude of the risk of liver disease after cholecystectomy.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched systematically from database inception to January 2023 to identify eligible studies that evaluated the association between cholecystectomy and the risk of liver disease. Meta-analysis was conducted to obtain a summary odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

We identified 20 studies with a total of 27 320 709 individuals and 282 670 liver disease cases. Cholecystectomy was associated with an increased risk of liver disease (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.34-1.98). In particular, cholecystectomy was found to be significantly associated with a 54% increased risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.18-2.01), a 173% increased risk of cirrhosis (OR: 2.73, 95% CI: 1.81-4.12), and a 46% increased risk of primary liver cancer (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.18-1.82).

CONCLUSIONS

There is an association between cholecystectomy and the risk of liver disease. Our results suggest that strict surgical indications should be implemented to reduce unnecessary cholecystectomy. Additionally, the routine assessment of liver disease is necessary for patients with a history of cholecystectomy. More prospective large-sample studies are required for better estimates of the risk.

Gallstones and risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas: a prospective study within two U.S. cohorts

BACKGROUND

Gallstones may result in inflammation, altered bile flow, and changes in metabolic hormone levels, thereby increasing cancer risk. However, previous studies for gallstones and cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas in the U.S. were relatively limited.

METHODS

We followed 115,036 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1982-2012) and 49,729 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012). History of gallstones, including with or without performed cholecystectomy, was reported at baseline and updated through biennial questionnaires. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

During up to 30-year follow-up, we identified 204 incidents of liver cancer, 225 biliary tract cancer and 1147 pancreatic cancer cases. Compared to those without gallstones diagnosis, the multivariable HRs for individuals with gallstones (untreated or with cholecystectomy) were 1.60 for liver cancer (95% CI: 1.14-2.26), 4.79 for biliary tract cancer (95% CI: 3.02-7.58), and 1.13 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.96-1.32). The multivariable HRs for individuals with cholecystectomy were 1.33 for liver cancer (95% CI: 0.90-1.95) and 1.15 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.98-1.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Gallstones were associated with a higher risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and possibly pancreas.

Cholecystectomy reduces the risk of cholangiocarcinoma in patients with complicated gallstones, but has negligible effect on hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Gallstones have been reported to be positively associated with hepatobiliary cancers. However, risks of these cancers by cholecystectomy or in patients with complicated gallstones are controversial. We studied the effect of cholecystectomy on the risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with gallstones and subgroup of complicated gallstones.

METHODS

Patients with gallstone disease (n = 958 677) and age-matched and sex-matched controls (n = 9 586 770) were identified using the Korean National Health Insurance database. Complicated gallstones were defined as gallstones associated with acute cholecystitis or acute cholangitis. Adjusted hazard ratios (adjusted hazard ratios, 95% confidence interval) of CCA and HCC incidences were evaluated in patients with gallstones who received cholecystectomy compared to the controls. We also analyzed these effects in patients with complicated gallstones.

RESULTS

Patients with gallstones showed increased risks of CCA (1.80, 1.67-1.93) and HCC (1.03, 1.00-1.07) compared with controls. Cholecystectomy had minimal effects on the risks of CCA (1.94, 1.76-2.14) and HCC (0.93, 0.87-0.99) compared with those without cholecystectomy. However, patients with complicated gallstones showed highly increased CCA risk (5.62, 4.89-6.46) and a 30% risk reduction after cholecystectomy (3.91, 3.43-4.46). Risk reduction by cholecystectomy was greater for extrahepatic CCA than for intrahepatic CCA or ampulla of Vater cancer. However, the risk of HCC was not different in patients with complicated gallstones and those who underwent cholecystectomy compared to controls.

CONCLUSION

The risk of CCA was markedly increased in patients with complicated gallstones and was partially reduced by cholecystectomy. The risk change of HCC was minimal with gallstones or cholecystectomy.

Prediction and clinical utility of a liver cancer risk model in Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study of 0.5 million people

China has made rapid progress in reducing the incidence of HBV infection in the past three decades, along with a rapidly changing lifestyle and aging population. We aimed to develop and validate an up-to-date liver cancer risk prediction model with routinely available predictors and evaluate its applicability for screening guidance. Using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, we included 486 285 participants in this analysis. Fifteen risk factors were included in the model. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate the 10-year absolute risk of liver cancer. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. A total of 2706 participants occurred liver cancer over the 4 814 320 person-years of follow-up. Excellent discrimination of the model was observed in both development and validation datasets, with c-statistics (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.79-0.81) and 0.80 (0.78-0.82) respectively, as well as excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. Decision curve analysis revealed that use of the model in selecting participants for screening improved benefit at a threshold of 2% 10-year risk, compared to current guideline of screening all HBsAg carriers. Our model was more sensitive than current guideline for cancer screening (28.17% vs 25.96%). We developed and validated a CKB-PLR (Prediction for Liver cancer Risk Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank Study) model to predict the absolute risk of liver cancer for both HBsAg seropositive and seronegative populations. Application of the model is beneficial for precisely identifying the high-risk groups among the general population.

Causal effects of gallstone disease on risk of gastrointestinal cancer in Chinese

BACKGROUND

Gallstone disease (GSD) is associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer. However, it is unclear whether the associations are causal.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recorded 17,598 cases of GI cancer among 510,137 participants without cancer at baseline during 10 years of follow-up. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for specific cancer by GSD status and duration. Mendelian randomisation was conducted to assess the genetic associations of GSD with specific cancer.

RESULTS

Overall 6% of participants had symptomatic GSD at baseline. Compared with those without GSD, individuals with symptomatic GSD had adjusted HRs of 1.13 (1.01-1.29) for colorectal, 2.01 (1.78-2.26) for liver, 3.70 (2.88-4.87) for gallbladder, 2.31 (1.78-3.07) for biliary tract, and 1.38 (1.18-1.74) for pancreatic cancer. Compared with participants without GSD, the risks of colorectal, liver, gallbladder, biliary tract, and pancreatic cancer were highest during 0 to <5 years following disease diagnosis. There was evidence of genetic associations of GSD with these cancers, with odds ratios per 1-SD genetic score of 1.08 (1.05-1.11) for colorectal, 1.22 (1.19-1.25) for liver, 1.56 (1.49-1.64) for gallbladder, 1.39 (1.31-1.46) for biliary tract, and 1.16 (1.10-1.22) for pancreatic cancer. When meta-analysing the genetic estimates in CKB and UK Biobank, there was evidence of causal associations of GSD with colon cancer, gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC), and total GI cancer (RR per 1-SD: 1.05 [0.99-1.11], 2.00 [1.91-2.09], and 1.09 [1.05-1.13]).

CONCLUSIONS

GSD was associated with higher risks of several GI cancers, warranting future studies on the underlying mechanisms.

Risk of primary liver cancer associated with gallstones and cholecystectomy: A competing risks analysis

Previous research has revealed a positive relationship between GSD, cholecystectomy and primary liver cancer (PLC). However, previous studies had several limitations including the retrospective design, narrow assessment of potential confounders and lack of competing risk models in time-to-event analyses. We conducted a large prospective cohort study to explore the relationship between GSD, cholecystectomy and PLC. A total of 95,021 participants who had not been diagnosed with PLC previously were enrolled from the Kailuan Cohort study. Demographic characteristics and biochemical parameters were recorded at baseline for all participants. We used Cox regression models and competing risk regression models to evaluate the association of GSD and cholecystectomy with the risk PLC. A total of 306 incidental PLC cases were identified during a median follow-up of 9.05 (8.75-9.22) years per participant. Compared with the normal group, the multivariable HRs (95%CI) for the association of GSD and cholecystectomy with PLC were 1.77 (1.05-2.94), 5.25 (1.95-14.17). In the CS model, the multivariable HRs (95%CI) was 1.76 (1.05-2.94) for the association of GSD and cholecystectomy with PLC and 5.25 (1.95-14.17) for GSD and cholecystectomy. Similar results were also obtained in the SD model with corresponding multivariate HRs (95%CI) of 1.75 (1.01-3.00), 5.22 (1.90-14.07) in the GSD group and cholecystectomy group, respectively. GSD and cholecystectomy were associated with an elevated risk of PLC.Registration number: ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489.

Screen-detected gallstone disease and risk of liver and pancreatic cancer: The Kailuan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the risk of gastrointestinal cancers in screen-detected gallstone disease. This study aimed to investigate the association between screen-detected gallstone disease and gastrointestinal cancers using the Kailuan cohort, a population-based prospective cohort initiated in 2006.

METHODS

A total of 79 809 men who underwent gallbladder ultrasonography, were free of cancers in 2006 and did not have gastrointestinal cancers within one year were enrolled. A Cox proportional hazards model with age as the timescale was used to evaluate the association between screen-detected gallstone disease and gastrointestinal cancers.

RESULTS

We identified 1264 cases with gastrointestinal cancers, including 303 cases with liver cancer and 94 cases with pancreatic cancer. Screen-detected gallstone disease increased the risk of liver cancer, with an HR of 2.28 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-4.33, P = .012]. The association was modified by the hepatitis B surface antigen status. A non-significant positive association was observed between pancreatic cancer and gallstone disease (HR 2.19, 95% CI: 0.95-5.05, P = .065). However, the HR became significant after those individuals with diabetes were excluded (HR 2.60, 95% CI: 1.12-6.01, P = .026).

CONCLUSION

Screen-detected gallstone disease may predict the risk for liver and pancreatic cancer.

Gallstones and cholecystectomy in relation to risk of liver cancer

The association between gallstones or cholecystectomy and the incidence risk of liver cancer is controversial. This is a meta-analysis of observational studies on the role of gallstones or cholecystectomy in primary liver cancer. Relevant studies were identified after the literature search via electronic databases until June 2014. A random-effects model was used to generate pooled multivariable adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using Cochran's Q and I statistics. A total of 14 studies (four case-control, 10 cohort) were included in this study. Our study showed the pooled OR was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.05-3.28) for gallstones with liver cancer risk and OR was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.24-1.71) for cholecystectomy. Though there was obvious heterogeneity among these studies, the risk of incidence was consistent in the subgroup analyses and sensitivity analysis. The findings from meta-analysis provided that patients with gallstones or cholecystectomy had significant increased the risk of liver cancer, although the biological mechanisms underlying the link still need to be clarified.

Disease burden of liver cancer in China from 1997 to 2016: an observational study based on the Global Burden of Diseases

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the trends in disease burden and the epidemiological features of liver cancer in China while identifying potential strategies to lower the disease burden.

DESIGN

Observational study based on the Global Burden of Diseases.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were publicly available and de-identified and individuals were not involved.

MEASUREMENT AND METHODS

To measure the liver cancer burden, we extracted data from the Global Health Data Exchange using the metrics of prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint and negative binomial regressions were applied to identify trends and risk factors.

RESULTS

From 1997 to 2016, the prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs of liver cancer in China were from 28.22/100 000 to 60.04/100 000, from 27.33/100 000 to 41.40/100 000, from 27.40/100 000 to 31.49/100 000 and from 10 311 308 to 11 539 102, respectively. The prevalence, incidence and mortality were increasing, with the average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of 4.0% (95% CI 3.9% to 4.2%), 2.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.2%) and 0.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.9%), respectively. Meanwhile, the rate of DALYs was stable with the AAPCs of -0.1% (95% CI -0.4% to 0.3%). The mortality-to-incidence ratio of liver cancer decreased from 1.00 in 1997 to 0.76 in 2016 (β=-0.014, p<0.0001). Males (OR: 2.98, 95% CI 2.68 to 3.30 for prevalence, OR: 2.45, 95% CI 2.21 to 2.71 for incidence) and the elderly individuals (OR: 1.57, 95% CI 1.55 to 1.59 for prevalence, OR: 1.58, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.60 for incidence) had a higher risk. Hepatitis B accounted for the highest proportion of liver cancer cases (55.11%) and deaths (54.13%).

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of liver cancer continued to increase in China with viral factors as one of the leading causes. Strategies such as promoting hepatitis B vaccinations, blocking the transmission of hepatitis C and reducing alcohol consumption should be prioritised.

Risk of primary liver cancer associated with gallstones and cholecystectomy: a meta-analysis

Background

Recent epidemiological evidence points to an association between gallstones or cholecystectomy and the incidence risk of liver cancer, but the results are inconsistent. We present a meta-analysis of observational studies to explore this association.

Methods

We identified studies by a literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and relevant conference proceedings up to March 2014. A random-effects model was used to generate pooled multivariable adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran’s Q statistic and the I².

Results

Fifteen studies (five case-control and 10 cohort studies) were included in this analysis. There were 4,487,662 subjects in total, 17,945 diagnoses of liver cancer, 328,420 exposed to gallstones, and 884,507 exposed to cholecystectomy. Pooled results indicated a significant increased risk of liver cancer in patients with a history of gallstones (OR = 2.54; 95% CI, 1.71–3.79; n = 11 studies), as well as cholecystectomy (OR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.29–2.02; n = 12 studies), but there was considerable heterogeneity among these studies. The effects estimates did not vary markedly when stratified by gender, study design, study region, and study quality. The multivariate meta-regression analysis suggested that study region and study quality appeared to explain the heterogeneity observed in the cholecystectomy analysis.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that individuals with a history of gallstones and cholecystectomy may have an increased risk of liver cancer.